Thursday, Jun 14, 2007
Blame HIPs of course!
BBC: Home packs 'led to selling rush'
"RICS added that a combination of higher interest rate and borrowers worried by the ending of fixed rate mortgage deals was leading to a cooling in the UK housing market. Nevertheless, nearly 24% more surveyors reported house prices in their area rising rather than falling." They tried to spin the figures, in reality 24% means that, over the total number of surveyors, the percentage of surveyors reporting rises is 5.4% (NOT 24!!) larger than the percentage of those reporting a fall. We should complain with RICS and BBC about this cheap spin
Posted by confused76 @ 12:51 PM (171 views) Add Comment
10 Comments
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1. confused76 said...
sorry, my math is faltering again "the percentage of surveyors reporting rises is 10.7% (NOT 24!!) larger than the percentage of those reporting a fall"
2. maddison said...
Its like saying the market is slowing down by saying the rate of increase is slowing. ie it is still accelerating.....
3. bidin'matime said...
You've got me, confused. (Or should that be 'You've got me confused'?). Either way, I can't see where you are getting your figures from (there doesn't seem to be enough info in the article to check the percentages).
4. maddison said...
OOPs I mean it is still increasing but the rate of acceleration is slowing.......
I am sure if you spoke to a policeman and said sorry for speeding but I was trying to slow down, not by applying the brakes but taking my foot off the floor a bit. ie I was decelerating.
Anybody know much about Physics
5. paul said...
Don't expect any answer from the journalism graduates working for BBC online. Dodgy statistics and bad maths have never put them off publishing questionable findings supporting their
They don't have to register their interests so shill the market for all they're worth (literally).
6. bidin'matime said...
Maddison - you're in the right ball-park - whilst the headline writers love to talk about the speed that their beloved car is travelling at, those of us who take a closer interest are looking at acceleration or deceleration - and whilst prices have ( in many places ) still been rising (call that the speed), the rate of rise is slowing (deceleration) and we all know that feeling of doom that you get when you are belting along the motorway and the speed, for no apparent reason, drops a few notches... Eventually UK Plc will be sitting on the hard-shoulder...
(PS - Confused - I've now seen your other article posted and assume that this is the source of your percentages)
7. confused76 said...
Yep, the source of my percentages is the comment to a previous article
Maddison
I do not dispute what you are saying, but be aware than a 10% difference is statistically small, given surveys and questionnaires practices. So a more honest summary of the RICS report should be "Prices are flat!"
8. Benedict said...
Can't seem to see my last comment, apologies if any double posting but this is my first.
http://www.rics.org/NR/rdonlyres/EA918ACD-DE5E-4FC1-B008-26FFD26F9EA8/0/RICSHousingMarketSurveyMay2007Public.pdf
That's the full RICS survey if anyone wants, has the detailed statistics if you're that way inclined. 40% reporting a rise and 7% reporting a fall, balance of 33 but seasonally adjusted balance of 24. In London there's a seasonally adjusted balance of about 60% though.
9. paul said...
bidin' I like the way you picked up and ran with maddison's analogy there.
"UK plc will be on the hard shoulder"
With the UK's taxpayers sitting on the motorway embankment. In the rain.
10. sovietuk said...
without a mobile phone