Thursday, Jun 14, 2007

Are global market bubbles set to blow?

BBC News: Are global market bubbles set to blow?

There is a strange fascination in blowing a bubble, when despite your better judgement, you keep willing it to get bigger regardless of the dangers.

Then, suddenly, the violent pop that leaves you picking bubblegum off your eyebrows, or crying soapy tears.

Posted by millard @ 07:39 AM (157 views) Add Comment

10 Comments

1. Orwell said...

The radio 4 programme was very interesting on I think Monday or Tuesday when they were also discussing this. Pretty much the perceived view (bar Rich) is that we have had far too low IR's. They are on their way up and will go up and stay up...So Rich sorry my friend be prepared as the boy scouts say...I hope those spread bet liabilities are not too large!!!

Regrettably the credit binge has gone on too long and as someone said, the amount of GDP we spend servicing debt is far too high (debt is 167% of GDP don't forget and we are the silver medalists in this respect).

In my line of work, litigation including some insolvency aspects, when you can't service your debts then its a trip to the Insolvency Service (or an IVA).

Thursday, June 14, 2007 08:34AM Report Comment
 

2. nopensionnohouse said...

Two words: "Head" and "Sand"


The view of the optimists on the housing and private equity markets is not so different.

* It may become more expensive to get mortgages and do deals, but that is likely to slow rather than reverse the current trend.
* Rather than the bursting of a bubble, expect a plateau of demand.
* UK house price growth probably will slow, though a lack of new homes will help underpin the market especially in prime areas such as London.
* Though real interest rates have risen, they are still low by historical standards.
* Real estate bubbles may appear but they will localised and dictated by special circumstances.
* Mergers and acquisitions are unlikely to stop as there are compelling arguments for consolidation in many industries, such as banking.

Thursday, June 14, 2007 09:22AM Report Comment
 

3. confused76 said...

Sorry I disagree, both housing and m&a's have always worked in cycles, and it is not different this time. In the past the two trends were mostly uncorrelated. But at present they are underpinned by the same key driver: a vast amount of liquidity. When easy money dries up expect m&a activity to go down and housing too. That will be true globally but effects will be compounded in the UK, and London in particular.

Thursday, June 14, 2007 09:30AM Report Comment
 

4. royston said...

Confused76,

I agree with you on that one......if the liquidity dries up, the banking boom and the big bonuses are gone. If the city bonuses dry up, London and the Home counties will become like Detroit and the rust belt.....with the $7,000 houses to boot!

Thursday, June 14, 2007 10:09AM Report Comment
 

5. rich said...

@Orwell: "Pretty much the perceived view (bar Rich) is that we have had far too low IR's."

Don't put words in my mouth. I called bullsh*t on the cast-iron tone of your prophecising, I didn't express an opinion on interest rates.

Thursday, June 14, 2007 12:52PM Report Comment
 

6. george monsoon said...

Can anyone explain to the leyman (like myself) who although reasonably intelligent, has not been fortunate enough to visit the Himalayan guru who can translate the meaning behind the financial jargon, spoken by the chinless wonders who toy with our money down at the stock exchange.

i.e. cycles, bonds, gold and why buy/sell it, etc..

I have managed to by luck more than anything to build up my portfolio with bullbearings (fantasy stocks) to just over 9 million from last may, when I started with 100,000 . I did this without really understanding how the whole thing works, but I would like to understand why what I did, worked so well.

any takers with the gift of plain speak ?

Thursday, June 14, 2007 01:26PM Report Comment
 

7. Hedger said...

"but I would like to understand why what I did, worked so well."

Luck!

Thursday, June 14, 2007 01:57PM Report Comment
 

8. mrmickey said...

They say that you know a stock market bubble is coming to an end when the general public get involved, this has not happened in the west yet but has in China. Therefore are we yet to see the buy to let brigade sell up and dump their money into stocks before the big blow off happens .

Thursday, June 14, 2007 02:33PM Report Comment
 

9. sold 2 rent 1 said...

George,

Try reading the daily articles posted on www.safehaven.com.
After a few weeks you will get the picture.

Mr M,

There will be no crazy valuations for US and UK stocks this time.
The stocks crash will be lead by company earnings falling off a cliff due to debt-laden consumers unable to borrow and spend any more.

Read this
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7755.htm

Thursday, June 14, 2007 02:49PM Report Comment
 

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