Tuesday, May 29, 2007
US Market Continues to Deflate
Bloomberg: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Fell 1.4% in March, Index Shows
Nationally, home prices fell 1.4 percent in the first quarter from the same period last year, the fist decline since 1991.
Posted by james @ 02:36 PM (29 views) Add Comment
3 Comments
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1. uncle tom said...
My model of the inverted sine curve - a decline that slowly gathers pace until it goes into freefall - seems to be emerging in the US, but whether it will follow through into a full crash is less certain.
I'm struggling to find good data on the scale and nature of BTL speculation in the USA, and I suspect it may not have been as extreme or as reckless there as it has been in the UK, If that is the case, they are more likely to see a property slump rather than a crash.
What they are going to see now is the delayed effect of the downturn - the drying up of equity withdrawal (refinancing in the US) with a consequent slow down in consumer spending.
Greenspan's warnings about the possibility of recession are well judged..
2. inbreda said...
Do what the VIs would do if th eboot were on the other foot - annualise it.
Don't say home prices fell 1.4% in the first quarter, say they fell 5.6% annualised.
3. $£$£ said...
Then add in inflation