Sunday, May 20, 2007
slump?..don't say we didn't warn you
observer: observer.co.uk
reminder that all asset classes are going up...the only time in history this has ever happened...note the housing market views....think we are in for a big shock and we are nowhere near prepared for it.
Posted by taffee @ 12:07 PM (146 views) Add Comment
10 Comments
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1. royston said...
The UK property market is terminally ill at present - a disease known as 'excessibus creditus' to Doctors of economics - or too much credit to the lay man. Some argue that this disease was diagnosed a year or two ago and the market hasn't keeled over yet. However, the credit tumor has grown steadily larger over this time and the market is now more ill than ever. How long has the market got left? I would be very surprised it is still going strong 6-months from now. In fact, some clear signs of the final stage of the illness are already beginning to show. Furthermore, other asset markets which contracted the disease around the same time, e.g. US, Spanish, French and Irish property markets and the Chinese stock market, are already exhibiting strong symptoms of the the terminal phase of this disease. No market has ever been known to survive this disease, but a few have experienced a slow lingering death.
2. enuii said...
Once all the financial life has been sucked out of Joe Public then there will be no more money to be had for the speculators. First Time Buyers, mortgaged up to their eyeballs on overpriced property will be the worst hit along with the banks who lent the money in the first place. The stock markets that have engorged themselves on the back of the property boom will also take a big hit and it will possibly take a whole generation for the world to recover from the excesses of the last 10 years.
3. Fedupwithhouseprices said...
Yeh Royston but with new advancements in HP medicine the survival rate has gone up considerably!
4. Scott said...
Enuii, I suggest you watch the Dark Angel series by James Cameron. Based in Seattle in 2020 10 years since the start of a major depression. The imagination of James Cameron is extensive. Basically, the US is like a developing country and everything is bad. However, the main people in the series are young and were children before it happened so they don't give a shit.
I think this is how it will play out here. Royston will get his 30 years of hell that he is wishing for but for those that are born into it they won't care and will just get bored of us oldies moaning about how great things used to be.
5. sirgoogle said...
Nice quote from the Forum:
QUOTE(time_and_tide @ May 20 2007, 11:55 AM)
The stuffy old BOE is mandated to control inflation. That is exactly what they will do, only not very efficiently. If we get a serious acceleration in inflation they will panic and slam the foot on the interest rate pedal so fast that BTLers and other smug fools will go straight through the windscreen.
6. disgustedofyork said...
I'm now pretty convinced all the warning signs are there, if you are willing to look for them. For example: last sunday I took the train back from Bangor (North Wales) to York, on a rainy evening. The railway line passes through Chester, Warrington, Manchester and Leeds. Alongside the railway in every town were huge numbers of new flats, some finished, some still being marketed and some still being built. The telling thing was in the finished flats, how few of them had any lights on. On a rainy sunday evening you'd expect the occupants to be home with the lights on, which made me think that occupancy levels in flats (which are pitched at the BTL market) are pretty low. That's not a sign that the BTL market is looking good.
7. Yellerkat said...
We had (an overpriced) lunch at Brighton Marina today: The ENTIRE table of 15 were talking about the upcoming crash - after viewing a full dockload of unwanted (unaffordable?) boats.
8. Paulos said...
I checked the two streets of the new Barratt estate I live on. It's been up long enough now for 3 properties to have been sold a second time. One of them (a semi) sold for more than its original price. BUT the other two (flats) sold for LESS.
9. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Anecdotal evidence, but my wife is in holistic therapy, so we watch her business for indicators of discretionary income being squeezed.
She has had more no-shows in the last three weeks than at any time since she started up.
I'm not keen to be alarmist, but it struck me as odd to suddenly hit a wall of voids.
10. Silver Surfer said...
Slow motion action replay of 91/92 here we go again. Hello negative equity et al