Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Prices up - RICS

Firstrung: House prices rise - RICS UK housing market survey April 2007

House prices rose for the eighteenth consecutive month in April driven primarily by renewed momentum in London, the South East and East Anglia. 28.9% more Chartered Surveyors reported a rise than a fall in house prices, up from 26.9% in March.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:28 PM (155 views) Add Comment

13 Comments

1. dohousescrashinthewoods said...

Slightly off-topic, but shall we define a "crash"?

I propose the following categories: (HPI relative to inflation/RPI)

0-5%: stagnation (parts of the North are here)
5-10%: correction
10-15%: slump
15-20%: decline (parts of the US are here)
20-50%: crash
50-75%: meltdown (on this scale, sub-prime may has, to date, been over-egged)
75%+: collapse

Any takers? Adopting a scale allows sensible discussion and identifying articles that are hyping figures (up or down).

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 01:15PM Report Comment
 

2. Night said...

@dohousescrashinthewoods - I think that it's a good idea to have some way to quantify a crash. Whether or not your numbers make sense I leave for others to discuss, but in order to keep a balanced viewpoint it is important that we define the other direction as well:

0 to -5% = stagnation
-5 to -10% = recovery
-10 to -15% = upturn
-15 to -20% = growth
-20 to -50% = bubble
-75% = frenzy

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 03:05PM Report Comment
 

3. David20040_0 said...

Up they go, yet again.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 03:19PM Report Comment
 

4. sold 2 rent 1 said...

doHouses,

Great terminology/scale. I think we should use it.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 03:43PM Report Comment
 

5. sirgoogle said...

do houses - great idea

Please see http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/wiki/HPC_Definition

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 04:01PM Report Comment
 

6. dohousescrashinthewoods said...

Thanks, glad that sounds good :)

The wiki is a good idea so that people can edit it.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 04:17PM Report Comment
 

7. Papabear said...

Make mine a meltdown, please ;-)

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 04:41PM Report Comment
 

8. Scott said...

doHouses has put forward a good scale. I will go with a meltdown.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 05:02PM Report Comment
 

9. David20040_0 said...

Considering housing isn't likely to crash, wouldn't these terms be more appropriate.

+1 - 5% with inflation
6- 10% The norm
11- 20% London
21- 50% Northern Ireland

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 05:11PM Report Comment
 

10. sirgoogle said...

We should use the Wiki a bit more - perhaps to gather definitive articles that (for example) illustrate the various triggers for the HPC - I popped a link to the great undercover BBC article "secret agent" see http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/wiki/Possible_triggers_for_a_house_price_crash.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 06:21PM Report Comment
 

11. talking rot said...

dohouses

You'd get my vote but for one thing. Over what time period are we talking about please? A drop by 10% over 3 years is a very different preposition to a drop of 10% in one year.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 07:27PM Report Comment
 

12. Dr K said...

Since I am relatively new here, I would like to make a comment about HPC. This site has been around for a few years and I bought my last house in 2002 when HPI was 20% pa. At that time, everybody said that a HPC was coming. 5 years later - no crash. For the last year I have been renting but would like to buy. My reason for not buying is simply that in the area I currently live I feel the quality of houses available for 300-350k are shocking, small, no or little garden, semi- or terraced Victorian cottages. Fortunately, this has made my decision not to buy easier. Now to my point. I assume that all of us on this site want to buy a house but can't or won't because of the current prices. My question is at what price would you buy? If the average price now is 200k and considered to be outrageous, what price would you consider to be reasonable? If for the sake of argument we say that 150k is reasonable average house price, we require a 25% correction, and it follows that if HPI continues at 10% for another 12 months then the correction would have to be closer to 30%. Now for the rub; if a HPC happened in 12 months time and there was a 20% correction, similar I believe to the last crash, and the average price became 175k, would we all buy? In a nutshell, are we hoping for a crash to make a social point or are we just envious/pissed off that we cannot afford a decent property for a reasonable mortgage (3-4x salary)? Just trying to stimulate some debate.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007 07:27PM Report Comment
 

13. David20040_0 said...

"just envious/pissed off that we cannot afford a decent property for a reasonable mortgage (3-4x salary)?"

That one for most people here I suspect, including myself.

Wednesday, May 16, 2007 12:52AM Report Comment
 

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