Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Little impact of previous interest rate increases showing in house price stats
Firstrung: House prices show one of the highest annual increases in two years - Land Registry
Although the rate of monthly increase is slightly less than the previous month, the change of 0.6 per cent raises the average house price to £179,935 in this month. The annual change in house prices is 9.1 per cent. The data for this month continues to show one of the highest annual increases in almost two years. A year ago, in April 2006, the annual price change was 4.1 per cent, less than half the 9.1 per cent annual price change in April 2007...
Posted by converted lurker @ 02:50 PM (45 views) Add Comment
13 Comments
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1. confused76 said...
What!? Are these people blind? 9.1% was last year, last month the market was down in half of the regions
Monthly change
London 2.3%
Wales 1.1
South East 1.0
East 0.7
East Midlands 0.5
West Midlands 0.0
North East -0.2
South West -0.3
North West -0.5
Yorkshire & The Humber -1.1
2. converted lurker said...
The comparsion is yoy, last year HPI (in April) was running at 4%, now it's 9%. Last year there were also plenty of micro stats such as you have posted, the correction is inevitable, long drawn out twenty year death IMHO
3. confused76 said...
my point is if you compare April 2007 with October 2006 (below) you clearly see that the yoy increase is meaningless. In April 2007 the market has tanked in 5 regions out of 10.. Source is always the same, land register quoted by firstrung
April 2007 monthly changes (%)
London 2.3%
Wales 1.1
South East 1.0
East 0.7
East Midlands 0.5
West Midlands 0.0
North East -0.2
South West -0.3
North West -0.5
Yorkshire & The Humber -1.1
October 2006 monthly changes (%)
London 2.0
Yorkshire & The Humber 1.9
South East 1.6
West Midlands 0.9
North West 0.5
South West 0.5
East 0.4
East Midlands 0.3
Wales 0.3
North East -2.0
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5. Rentslave said...
"one of the highest annual increases in almost two years"???
One of two, then. Almost two years? So not two years, one year.
So one of the highest annual increases in the past year...
Sometimes people allow themselves to get lost in the hyperbole.
6. fahrenheit451 said...
I'm just waiting for the graph. And profit warnings.
Boom Diddy Boom Crraaasssshhhh !
7. royston said...
It is normal asset market behaviour to have a last minute spike-up immediately before the collapse! The same thing happened in 1999-2000 before the dot-com collapse. The fundamentals haven't changed - this baby's goin' down!
8. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
I read down to the bottom and it notes that this doesn't include the last two months' data.
This reflects the spike we saw about two months ago.
Other indexes have suggested things are softening since. I suspect that we will see this reflected by Land Reg soon.
This could tie in with the "last minute spike-up immediately before the collapse" Royston is talking about.
If not, we keep watching..
9. converted lurker said...
Yes the data lags, but d'ya not think that previous interest rate rises would have already affected the overall national picture? I expected the market to begin to turn once rates reached 5% last November, or perhaps when rates were raised again in Jan (a shock let's not forget) and yet mortgage approvals are still strong, prices still moving upwards, and unfortunately, despite all the negative mainstream articles, Land Reg HPI is running at twice the rate of this time last year. Not good guys...
10. speculatorone said...
I agree with royston. I can feel a crash in the air, and when she goes she gona be a biggie..........
11. confused76 said...
I think London is skewing the picture big time, that's it
12. paul said...
I'm quite convinced that although the level of prices in London is significantly higher than everywhere else, the sentiment (or the dynamic of the market) will change just as quickly as everywhere else.
I sense that BTLers and new mortgagees sense that somethig's not right. I also have a lot more intensive interest from estate agents looking to sell me property right now.
13. george monsoon said...
http://www.propertysnake.co.uk
I rest my case!