Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Complete contradiction of earlier BBC article
The Times: Buoyant high street trading fuels fears over run of base rate rises
A heady mix of strong retail sales, consumer confidence and salary growth will add today to concerns that interest rates may have to rise beyond this week’s expected quarter-point increase.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) will report today that sales on the high street enjoyed a healthy April.
Posted by holding out @ 09:23 AM (130 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Mixed bag of spinning today!
2. p. o. o. r said...
Well, the reports over the last few weeks just about sums things - which ever way the BOE go the media can say that they were right. My guess is that tomorrow is going to be an interesting day - I am guessing that if the BOE raise by 0.5% then Blair will announce the date he is leaving so that the bad news is buried. 0.25% will not be enough to stop the spending and will need to be followed up within a month or two with another rise or two - and no increase would send out the wrong signals that all is OK.
Will the USA raise their rate today - they certainly need to, as they are now suffering very high inflation - Petrol prices increasing significantly, impoting goods from Europe with the $ close to 1.35 to the € is also pushing up prices - this in turn means that their manufacturing base is having to increase prices making exports more expensive.
I still believe that in the UK we will hit or break through the 6% mark before the end of 2007.
3. Orwell said...
Methinks that the great british consumer has got too used to using number 57 acacia avenue as a money box - and we all know what that means - unfortunately inflation including that in the housing market needs to be controlled. Regrettably the fact that this may mean some discomfort is only the BOE's fault (and the gulper of course who is running the economy so well).
Can we really blame the consumer for raiding the cookie jar? wouldn't we all?
4. autopilotengage said...
I agree with p.o.o.r. on the 6% thing.
The relationship between domestic interest rates and domestic inflation have decoupled and is now a much weaker relationship due to increased global integration. Inflation targeting really is only a simple matter of money supply and interest rates in a sheltered economy. If inflation does abate, it will probably not have a great deal to do with a couple of .25% interest rate increases i don't think. The truth is, the MPC don't have all the tools to control inflation, and we're not giving enough lip service to the domestic money supply and foreign interest rates. If inflation remains above target, the MPC will have no choice but to continue raising interest rates unless there is a change to their remit.
5. talking rot said...
Logically, I would be more surprised if we were not at 6% by the end of 2007. But I have a feeling that, at best, we'll be at 5.75%. Gordon Brown makes too much money from houses and will use every means he can to prevent a crash. No modern politician will touch the tax system for housing because they are simple scared. Can you image the effect of slapping capitol gains tax on the profit made on a house? Can you image what would happen to the electoral chances of the political party who replaced Council Tax with a 1% of value asset tax. Nope. We'll turn the year at 5.75% at best.
How much longer does David Blanchflower have left on the MPC?
6. Orwell said...
Interesting slant on it TR. But surely if the choice is between no economy because of wage and price inflation and argumentative unions and a limited but subdued economy wouldn't the gulper go for the latter?
I might be tempted to leave it though if I belived that I would shortly leaving Number 11. However we know that Blur hates the Gulper and if there is anyway that he can stay on until next year to allow Millie in with a chance after the first round between Meacher, Reid, Beckett et all he will. The second round will then see Millie enter and the dull crew melt away once the Gulper is mortally wounded like Mrs. T.
A contest between the left's darling, John Mcdonnel and the right's darling Millie? now that would be interesting! Watch the fireworks!
So logically, can the Gulper really say when if ever he will be taking the removal van next door? or is it down to Westmintster UBO as a job seeker we will see him go?
7. Si1 said...
I agree that Gordon Brown will not allow it to happen on his watch if he can help it. So it will be worse later. I'd respect a tory govt with the balls to see the necessary economic rebalancing thru to the end.
Boiling frog?
8. mrmickey said...
It's a bit like that film "speed" with the bomb on board the bus, take your foot of the accelerator and the bomb explodes, leave your foot on the accelerator and the bus crashes (and then explodes), Gordo is Keanu Reeves trying to save the economy from certain death and Tony Blair is Dennis Hopper the baddie with a grudge trying to bugger things up for Gordo, this is so exciting get the popcorn out.
9. Orwell said...
Another thing...
How come Millie is so right wing in view of the old man? He must be turning in his grave!
And on second thoughts maybe the Gulper won't need a job... He does have a very large (£10m?) pension pot paid for by his raids on other people's pension pots and the revenue that provided.
And anyway he wouldn't get JSA as he will have been dismissed for gross miscounduct in the way he ran the economy by then! LOL.
10. Orwell said...
Well Mr Milliband?
Would you stand in a second round against Monsieur Le Brun? We'd love to know wouldn't we and hence I am copying in your web site.
Do enter the debate at http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk
Love E J Thribb 13 and a quarter
CC david.miliband@defra.gsi.gov.uk
11. Sumo_barry said...
Mr Mickey,
That is a legendary analogy! No two ways about it, the bus will explode sooner or later. Ka-boom!!
Fancy it will be 0.25% tomorrow. The MPC aint got the balls to do 0.5%
Sumo_barry