CNN Money: Bullish real estate economist to step down

"David Lereah, criticized for excessive market optimism, to leave National Association of Realtors." That Lereah is quiting really has to say something about the former bull market for real estate in the US.

Posted by richc @ 11:04 PM 6 Comments

The Market Oracle: US Housing Bubble Meltdown: "Is it too late to get out"?

Great article detailing the panic now being experienced by the financial lenders in the US over subprime debacle. "Citigroup and Bank of America" forming a $1bn dollar fund to help bail out lenders?! How scared must they be? Alt-A is aparently a $1 trillion dollar time-bomb too! How they will keep this illusion up will be interesting..

BBC News: UK workers 'face meagre old age'

Big mortgage multiples and money purchase pension unfortunately equals Old Age Poverty.

Telegraph: Rip-off Britain back with a vengeance

Figures from Eurostat, Europe's statistics agency, show Britain is one of the most expensive countries in the EU for alcohol and tobacco, transport, education and household goods.

Posted by nearly30 @ 08:44 PM 9 Comments

The Thrifty Scot: The wealth gap is widening

There are those who are warning the government that London’s economy attracted the wealthy in the first place. To let the average worker suffer, working harder to gain less, is a sure way to destroy the vibrant, and self sustaining economy that attracted the wealthy in the first place.

CityWire: Increasing life expectancy impacts on housing market

Good news for mortgage intermediaries – Alliance & Leicester is predicting that increasing life expectancy will result in more families moving house more often to cope with adult children remaining at home as well as dependent elderly relatives.

Posted by nearly30 @ 08:35 PM 6 Comments

HousePriceCrash: ABN Amro Report

I am being not too original here, and post a link from the HPC site. ABN is making absolutely clear that UK housing market will crash with a much greater bang than the US. I suggest you read ABN's full-length House Truths report, if you havent yet. Maybe Webmasted can post it on this site.

Posted by confused76 @ 07:20 PM 7 Comments

The Onion: 'Day traders'–short term, high risk investors

'Day traders'–short term, high risk investors who buy and sell stock online from their own homes–account for a large, rapidly rising percentage of total stock-market activity. Why are so many Americans getting involved in day trading?

FT.com: HSBC sells London HQ for £1bn

"Spanish property company Metrovacesa is paying £1.09bn for the London headquarters of global bank HSBC in the biggest ever single-property deal in the UK. The skyscraper at 8 Canada Square in Canary Wharf, where 8,000 people work, is 210m high with 1.1m sq ft of space. On a yield of 3.8 per cent – thought to be the highest price paid for a big UK office block – the building reflects how commercial property prices have gone through the roof in recent years. " HSBC selling up? How badly do they need cash to cover bad-debt losses? Or, with Swiss Re having recently sold the Gherkin, are HSBC also calling the top of the market?

BBC News: Interest rates 'must hit 5.75%'

The Bank of England should raise interest rates to 5.75% by June in order to guard against wage-driven inflation, a think tank has warned. While rates are expected to go up from 5.25% to 5.5% next month, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research says a bigger rise is needed. It points to the fact that the UK's retail price inflation (RPI) rate is currently at a 16-year high of 4.8%. RPI is the basis for many annual pay deals agreed at this time of the year.

Telegraph: Housing supply overtakes demand

Supply has overtaken demand in the housing market for the first time in a year. A glut of new properties has come to the market this month, pushing the number of new listings up 5.7pc nationwide, according to the latest housing survey from Hometrack. The number of buyers coming to the market rose by 4.4pc in the same period.

Times: Should letter-writing be thing of the past?

This is a vile attack of The Times (what a weapon of mass distraction!) to the only tiny tiny element of accountability of an otherwise usless body like the MPC. please flood The Times and the author with comments!

Posted by confused76 @ 12:58 PM 6 Comments

Home.co.uk News: NIESR slams BoE negligence

The cut in rates in 2005 was a blunder and subsequent prevarication over IR hikes has only made the problem of soaring HPI worse.

Guardian: Future generations 'will pay for high house prices'

This study may be correct, unless... it s a bubble, in which case price revert to the mean and future generations are fine (and older generations are scr**ed!!) What i find amazing is that these think tanks translate a relative recent observation (prices have gone up for only 6 years!!) into a universal rule for eternity. Interest rates will increase, more houses will be built, unemployment will go up and house prices will come down... this is the most likely outcome. Relax, HPI is just bonfire, not a multi-generation problem.

Firstrung: Dublin house prices fall by over 10% in a year - Daft.ie

The upper-end of the Dublin property market has been hardest hit with some areas showing significant drops in asking prices over the last six months. In North Dublin, Howth and Malahide have seen drops of over 10%. In South Dublin, meanwhile, asking prices in Rathmines, Rathgar and Ranelagh are down 12.6%. Asking prices in the predominantly first-time-buyers areas of Lucan and Adamstown took a softer hit, down 4.2% over the same period.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:58 AM 8 Comments

Firstrung: Higher interest rates are influencing mortgage borrowing - BBA

March figures for high street banks show that mortgage demand may be weakening in the face of rising interest rates. Marchs gross mortgage lending was £18.6bn, 5% more than £17.7bn in March 2006. There were 198,000 mortgages approved (for all purposes) in March; some 8% lower than in March 2006, with an aggregate value of £22.3bn. The average loan approved for house purchase was £150,800, some 12% higher than a year earlier.

Inside Track: Newsletter

This guy will be in exile in a few years sipping pina coladas - to escape the mob of bankrupt landlords.

interactive investor: Signs of slowing in UK mortgage demand emerging - BBA

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Signs that the UK housing market may be starting to slow emerged today as a leading industry group reported that UK mortgage approvals slowed from a year earlier while lending remained below its average over the past six months. In its in-depth analysis of the mortgage market in March, the British Bankers' Association said the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase slowed to 75,098 from 85,098 a year earlier. The value of loans approved also slowed on an annual basis, to 11.3 bln stg from 11.4 bln stg. Though the figures were up sharply from 54,659 and 8.2 bln stg in February, this reflects seasonal factors as the housing market usually picks up in March from February and January, said David Dooks, director of statistics at the BBA.

Times: One rise in interest rates should be enough, say economists

Only one further increase in interest rates should be enough for the Bank of England to bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target, despite mounting fears that it could take more aggressive action, Britain’s leading economics institute says today.

Posted by holding out @ 09:15 AM 8 Comments

BBC News: Dirty money exploits housing boom

I know that the British house buying public could not be so stupid as to chase up the prices of property and not realise what was happening. Criminal gangs have been contributing to excess housing demand in order to launder the proceeds of their crimes.

Posted by royston @ 07:36 AM 9 Comments

Businessweek: Pricing software could reshape retail

This article is worth reading because it calls into question some long held beliefs about price elasticity. What if you could make more houses be bought and sold WITHOUT having to inflate the money supply. After all retailers have to learn how to shift merchandise, why not estate agents? It is clear that the problem lies in a very far from Free Market applied to housing. Complete transparency a la Walmart could be a solution to overpricing (after we restore monetary equilibrium and educate people)?

Businessweek: Roads To Riches

A good article on the flight to the inflation protected relational mode of investing represented by infrastructure. Such a move signals what the "apex" money thinks is the future for currency. Moving into assets which are not adversly affected by things such as a currency crash, is the mark of belief that the end is near for certain currencies. No matter how hyper-inflated things get, you'll still need to eat food, use roads, airlines, bridges and energy and water utilities. The food you use is shipped, trucked or flown. The communications system relies on airplanes and electricity. Even if the returns aren't stellar (compared to wht people got used to), at least your investment would live through turbulent times. Ironically, land used to be a great hedge!

MoneyWeek: Have Central Bankers lost control?

.....However, a quick glance at the real world indicates continued boundless prosperity. Credit is being created in multiple forms and in unprecedented amounts all around the world. Could it be, the article asks, that the linkages between global economies have altered so fundamentally over the past decade that the shape of an individual country’s bond yield curve is no longer of any real relevance and that the traditional work of the central banker to regulate activity levels is doomed to failure?

Independent: RBS customers furious over 'old address' fee

Royal Bank of Scotland faces mounting criticism from furious borrowers after announcing a £12 penalty charge for customers who fail to notify it of a change of address. RBS said it would levy the charge after two statements had been sent to the customer's old address - in practice after two months. The bank denied suggestions of profiteering, and pointed out that it incurs costs in tracing customers with whom it has lost touch. "It is in the interest of customers to ensure the contacts details we hold for them are correct," a spokesman said. "We give clear instruction on each monthly statement on how to contact us to update these details."

Financial Times: Citigroup chiefs fear push for break-up

We all need to start looking at the ominous warning signs - banks cutting costs drastically to keep their dividend returns high so as to avoid activist hedge funds breaking them up. The obvious connection here will be a "flight to quality". It is a question of who blinks first in yanking loans away from "deadbeats". Back in 2001/2002 Fleming Private Bank and Cater Allen Private Bank were aggressive in removing accounts from anyone with under e.g. £50,000 balance (or some such figure). How long before we see the major retail banks just cutting their losses and running?

Independent: Bank caused inflation rise with rate cut in 2005, says think tank

The Bank of England's embarrassingly public failure to keep inflation at 3 per cent or lower can be traced back to its own decision to cut interest rates two and a half years ago, a leading economics think tank claims today. The widely respected National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) says the Bank's decision to cut interest rates in August 2005 was a costly mistake that inevitably led to it missing its inflation targets.

There is no more money!

Bloomberg: King's Inflation-Targeting Ways at Bank of England Lose Luster

``The Bank of England's inflation focus has been too narrow. It's too late to engineer a soft landing now.''

Nationwide: Pick up in house price growth seals a May rate rise

Dear Mervyn, you are allowed to raise IR, but only once otherwise you destabilize the market. Cheer up, you are independent Mervyn! Yours truly, Fionnuala

Posted by confused76 @ 07:38 PM 6 Comments

Firstrung: Propery news in focus - Firstrung

House price reports and signs of a Spanish house price crash dominated the property news wires over the past week. Firstly Nationwide, Hometrack and Smartnewhomes. Nationwide suggested interest rate rises are a done deal - given that house price inflation shows little sign of slowing. Hometrack weighed in with figures suggesting HPI was moderating as affordability is being stretched to new found tensile strengths and smartnewhomes quietly released figures declaring that new homes had fallen in prices by 10K (year on year).

Firstrung: House prices for new homes fall by an average 10K in a year - smartnewhomes.com

New homes prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive month with falling apartment prices and increased development in the north in part responsible for this continued decline... The average price of a new home fell by 0.4% over the last month New home prices fell for the fouth consecutive month in March The average price of a new home fell 3.4% over the last year March experienced the biggest price fall in the new homes market for over a year

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:11 PM 7 Comments

Observer: Cold spots put freeze on house price boom

"Sluggish performance in six areas adds to warning signs that the property market outside London is set to stagnate after years of runaway prices. London's a city-state that drives its own housing market."

The Telegraph: The pain in Spain is mainly on the wane

This is by the Economics Editor of The Sunday Telegraph

The Daily Telegraph normally is much more bearish than this
No mention at all about falling rental rates by 25% - Surely this fact alone will cause fly-to-letters to sell up.

Firstrung: House prices for new homes fall by an average 10K in a year - smartnewhomes.com

New homes prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive month with falling apartment prices and increased development in the north in part responsible for this continued decline... *The average price of a new home fell by 0.4% over the last month *New home prices fell for the fouth consecutive month in March *The average price of a new home fell 3.4% over the last year *March experienced the biggest price fall in the new homes market for over a year

Times: Super-rich treble wealth in last 10 years

THE WEALTH of the richest 1,000 people in Britain has more than trebled in the decade since Tony Blair came to power promising greater fairness

Posted by nearly30 @ 09:21 AM 6 Comments

Times: We used to have it all...

Sebastian Cresswell-Turner says he and his professional friends are the nouveau poor – a frighteningly downwardly mobile class.

Posted by nearly30 @ 09:18 AM 11 Comments

Finda property.com: Will rate rises cause a crash

Come on folks, let's up the ante and vote for this. The answer obviously is yes...

Telegraph: Our widening wealth gap

The ripple effect of bonus payments in London & SE combined with an influx of millionaire/billionaires into tax haven UK, has pushed demand for housing through the ceiling. That most basic component of British life, a home of one's own, is beginning to resemble a luxury.

Posted by nearly30 @ 09:27 PM 13 Comments

BBC News: Wealth of UK richest 'climbs 20%'

Britain's rich list booms with the "continued buoyancy of the property market", 221 of the richest have made their money from property, so they may be on shaky ground for next years list!

Comedy Central: Night of the Living Homeless

the scene where one guy becomes homeless -genius. you have been warned....

USA Today: Property Taxes Up as House Prices Fall

For future reference: note that in the States, prices nationally show a modest 1% increase this year -- even though the market is imploding in many areas. Using this argument, and even because they expect other tax revenues to fall due to the housing market collapse and job losses, municipalities and local governments across the board are increasing property taxes, some of them substantially. If you're a government rather than near bankrupt homeowner, it makes sense. Yet another factor to consider when the UK balloon bursts, the wave hits, the bubble pops -- however you want to put it. Yet another reason those riding the rising UK housing prices should have put their good fortune in the bank, not into property in Bulgaria. Add that to the big UH-OH factor.

Firstrung: HIPs could wipe out the significant ‘see what happens’ sellers group - NAEA

Now the Firstrung team are struggling to get our heads around this, you'd think the NAEA would want time-wasters eliminated from what can be a time consuming and expensive process. But no, they actively encourage it apparently. How on earth can serious vendors be put off by the cost of a HIP? If so what kind of fragile business environment do estate agents operate in, moreover what does it reveal about the simplicities of the average agents' business model?

Asian Times: Eye On America: Inflation less painful than recession

I'm heartly fed-up with the bias in the UK press. The Asian Times appears good and this article caught my eye. By examining yield curves on long or short US bonds, the article suggests good and bad news for the US economy. The good news is that the housing market will continue to be supported by Chinese and private investor purchases of Treasury and other fixed-income securities. The housing bubble warrants a correction in land values but, as long as long bond rates stay low, the correction will be mild. Prices on existing homes won't fall a great deal. Oh dear - that's bad news for HPC then. But read the article and see what bad news for the US economy could mean for the UK.

Posted by talking rot @ 11:23 AM 7 Comments

Times: Bank of Japan may raise rates

After the BoJ held Japanese interest rates at 0.5 per cent yesterday, Toshihiko Fukui suggested that the central bank would not be deterred from a new rise in interest rates by persistent weakness in price pressures so long as Japan’s growth remained in present robust form. Mr Fukui’s remarks came after official figures showing that “core” consumer prices in Japan, excluding food costs, dropped by 0.3 per cent in March compared with a year earlier.

Home.co.uk News: UK Housing crash alert

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist, now tries to temper interest rate rises with scare tactics. Having helped talk up the market (and house prices) to their current dizzy heights it would appear they now wish to impede desperately needed corrective measures.

Times: Lenders pull plug on fixed-rate mortgage quotes

Thousands of borrowers with fixed-rate mortgage quotes from some of Britain’s biggest lenders have been told that the figures are no longer valid after banks withdrew products in preparation for rising interest rates.

Home.co.uk News: Spain may collapse on 70,000 Brits

Panic selling of stocks in Spanish property firms earlier this week could spell disaster for more than 70,000 Britons who own a home there, experts have warned...

safehaven: How and Why the Chinese Shanghai Index could implode ...

This week, I had a discussion with a Hedge Fund manager about it. I asked, "How long do you think the Chinese market can go up by adding 1 million investors per week?"

His answer was, "Practically forever ... because they have over 1.3 BILLION people".

The whole market is a ponzi scheme weeks away from imploding

bank of england: The role of household debt and balance sheets in the monetary transmission mechanism

Good graph of how debt levels are tracking HP much closer then in 1989. The problem is much worse than in 1989.

marketoracle: Asset Price Deflation: The New Rules of Real Estate

Near the end of the article: "Gold and silver bugs write in to say that the Fed will opt for hyperinflation over deflation, and that the precious metals will soar (and I've learned to never argue with metals bugs). I offer another opinion: That the United States Federal Reserve will elect to protect the dollar first (its primary legal responsibility), and take the same path it chose in the 1930's when it raised interest rates to prop up the dollar in the face of a deflationary depression. I also say that the real estate collapse and change in psychology will be too unwieldy to prevent a massive credit contraction, and that that contraction will render the Fed impotent."

Daily reckoning: Property Bubbles

Written in 2004. Very much still applies today

FT: Loan standards for buy-to-lets slide

Oops... the UK version of sub-prime is not the mid-west ethnical minorities, but a bunch of desperate, greedy BTLers... oh I forgot, they claim they have built equity, they are professional investors and are in for the long run... you wish!

Ebay: LUNAR DEED CERTIFICATE ,OWN AN ACRE OF THE MOON!!

Ample supply, no greenbelt restrictions and no planning laws, introducing the new target for the next generation of property fools.

Times: Is it time to jump in?

An amazing piece of SciFi and Property Porn, probably also subsidized by property developers

Posted by confused76 @ 08:20 PM 8 Comments

Bloomberg: U.K. Home Prices Are `Very Inflated,' at Risk of Collapse, Tchenguiz says

The influx of international capital into the U.K. has created a real estate market similar to the one in Japan that collapsed in 1991, said Tchenguiz. Japanese land prices have dropped about 50 percent from their peak. They increased in 2006 for the first time in 16 years.

BBC: Slowdown hits US economic growth

The US economy grew at its weakest pace for four years during the first quarter of 2007, figures from the US Commerce Department show.

Daily Telegraph: Up to our eyes in debt we can't see

Yet the experts still say, don't worry. Much of this debt is backed by property. House prices are going up; they always do. You know it makes sense. Really? Am I alone in not understanding hocus-pocus economics? How can houses, some of which are being acquired on mortgages of six times the buyer's salary, keep increasing in price at a rate of more than twice income growth? The numbers add up only if you want them to - and plenty do.

BBC website: Buy-to-let home owners to double

So called experts wrote this report...

Times Online: Costas house price crash?

More of the same ... but its coming. <<< Thousands of British homeowners in Spain were on edge yesterday after billions of pounds were wiped off the value of Spanish property developers. >>>

Times Online: Prices and politics either side of the border

You have to look about halfway down this article and forget the ramblings about Scoltland. <<< In our second city, the problem is real estate glut rather than shortage. There is a growing oversupply of one and two-bedroom flats in the centre of Liverpool, which is dispiriting news for investors in these properties. >>> ... <<< Many investors are not receiving enough rent to cover their mortgages; >>> etc.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 02:04 PM 10 Comments

RTE news: First house prices drop for five years

More evidence on declining Irish property market. Watch the Irish sell off their UK property over the next few months. Clear evidence of our own crash will follow shortly.

Posted by royston @ 12:47 PM 11 Comments

Firstrung: First time buyers held steady on their market share in March, claiming 12.6% of the market - NAEA

Figures released by The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) from its March housing market survey have revealed a levelling of activity in the residential housing market... The market was seasonal in March, with buyers, sellers and completed house sales all at a similar level to the same period last year. March is traditionally a busier time in estate agency than February and the March figures reflect this, with a slight upturn in activity from last month.

Firstrung: Irish House prices fall for the first time since 2002 - 0.6% in March

The average price paid for a house in Ireland in March was €2,007 less than the average price paid in February according to the latest edition of the permanent tsb / ESRI House Price Index. This equates to a decline in national prices of 0.6% in March. This is the first reduction in national house prices since January 2002, when prices declined by 0.9%.

thelongwaveanalyst: Inverse liquidity piramid

Notice how property is the 2nd worst asset to hold in liquidity terms.

I have just switched 80% of my gold unit trusts to Tresury Bills this morning.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:50 AM 6 Comments

goldprice: The Dow in Gold Dollars has Been Warning that Stocks Were About to Rally Against Gold

Food for thought

Just a quick warning on some of these sites I post
Sites like www.goldprice.org and www.zealllc.com offer some valuable posts for investing.
Both of these sites are firm believers that we are in a secular bear that started in 2000.

How both sites also think that the secular bear will play out like in the 1970's with a huge commodity boom and inflation
Whilst they may be correct, not all secular bears are the same
Secular bears can be either k-summer or k-winter.
The 1970's was a k-summer and IMHO we will not be repeating this again

With any article you read, always bear in mind the author's knowledge of secular bears

The Muslim Weekly: Are UK house prices about to crash?

There is a rumour that housing prices will crash in the very near future. "In the past 10 years a global bubble in house prices has developed and it is now bursting," says Jonathan Davis, a chartered financial planner and spokesman for website housepricecrash.co.uk

Bloomberg: Bank of Japan Slashes Inflation Forecast, Keeps Rates Unchanged

Property prices falling but still out of reach. Prices of consumables are flat or falling, which prevents interest rate cuts. No, this is not yet another doom-monger's pessimistic vision of Britain's future - it's a description of Japan, today!

Posted by royston @ 09:50 AM 6 Comments

BBC: Bank of Japan defers rate action

Japan has kept its key interest rate on hold at 0.5% amid fresh concerns about deflationary pressures in the economy.

Posted by holding out @ 09:44 AM 8 Comments

The times: MPC hawk eases fears on bank rate as housing market cools

Fears that a May increase in borrowing costs will be swiftly followed by further aggressive base rate rises from the Bank of England were eased by soothing comments yesterday by one of the leading hawks on its Monetary Policy Committee, Paul Tucker.

The Telegraph: Derivatives are just dandy - until the music stops

In a bubble, people don't worry about old-fashioned things such as the risk premium because they know they'll find a "greater fool" to hand the problem on to. Which is fine until the music stops.

The Telegraph: Financial crisis looms after rise in risky lending: Bank

"The credit derivatives market has doubled each year since 2003, with outstanding contracts worth $34,500bn, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. Even before this explosive growth, America's most successful investor, Warren Buffett, described derivatives as "financial weapons of mass destruction" that threatened the stability of the world's entire economic system."

Who is going to argue with Warren Buffet?

BBC: Spain real estate sell-off eases

The sell-off in shares of Spanish real estate companies has eased after three days of falls that fanned fears of a possible property crash.

Buy-to-let home owners to double: BBC

The number of buy-to-let home owners may double in the next three years, a report suggests.

Bloomberg: BOE Says Low Debt Premiums Pose Risk to Stability

The central bank raised its assessments of the probability and potential impact of a shock to the nation's financial system stemming from low-risk premiums on credit. The bank also said there is now a greater likelihood of disruption caused by personal bankruptcies as consumers grapple with record debt. ``Risk-taking is increasing,'' John Gieve, the bank's deputy governor for financial stability, said in a statement in London. Growth in markets for transferring credit risk ``could amplify the impact of shocks like a sharp reversal in credit spreads, from their current low levels.'

The London Greek News: Cyprus property market heading for crash

Leading sellers of property BuysellCyprus have reported 2-3 per cent point drops in real estate in the island, whilst the occupied territories have experienced a complete drying up of demand for property given the issues of contested ownership. Many of the large developers from Cyprus have resorted to expensive roadshows in the UK to attract custom and offer budget or free travel and accomodation.

Daily Telegraph: Spanish properties are now bargains In the sun

Pierre Williams of Inside Track, the overseas property investment consultancy, said the bursting of the bubble of Spanish property market was long overdue. "Just as in the UK the era of automatically making vast sums of money on the back of rampant house price rises is over in Spain."

Myfinances: Nationwide: April house prices spring ahead

Britons simply will not stop buying houses it seems, with figures from April showing house price growth accelerated again.

Evening Starndard: The property boom may be over, warns Bank of England boss

I don't know about the Beeny article, but there are these two other recent Evening Standard articles: the one above and this follow-up one: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-3351359-details/House+price+rises+will+fall+to+zero/article.do

FT: The BoE’s ‘what if’ scenarios

The BOE is apparently playing war games. I hope the have factored in assett price corrections realistically!

Breaking NEWS: No such thing as common law marriges

A landmark ruling has declared that millions of unmarried couples who buy a house together will be denied the same rights given to married couples if they split up. The ruling, made yesterday, has confirmed that there is no such thing as 'common law' marriages

FXSTREET: UK house price growth accelerates in April

In a monthly survey of the housing market, it said house prices were up 0.9 pct from March to April and up 10.2 pct from April last year, taking the average house price to 180,314 stg. This was due to unusually warm weather as well as weaker comparable growth a year ago, Nationwide said

Times: House price inflation moves back above 10%

More pressure for a rate rise as latest figures show the price of the average home rose by more than £3,000 last month Slowdown when hosues are rising £3k a month??????????

Evening Standard: Beeny: House prices have to go down

There was a centre page spread in the London Evening Standard last night (Thurs 25th 2007), featuring Sarah Beeny talking about how ridiculous the UK property market is and how prices must come down. I nearly chocked. I'm buggered if I can find it online.

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:32 PM 8 Comments

Firstrung: House price crash predictions are premature - Nationwide

Not really near a crash

bloomberg: Gold Prices Are Little Changed Amid Demand for Inflation Hedge

Gold goes up when inflation goes high
It also goes up when banks are threatened and confidence is lost.
It's time to decide if this bubble will end with hyper-inflation or as a deflationary depression.
As the US economy slows, inflation fears will recede and gold will fall.
We are seeing this now.
Personally, I am in the deflationary depression camp
For those who share my views it might be worth waiting for the first stage of the stocks crash before buying gold.
Gold should tumble with stocks initially, as everything gets sold off.
We saw this in February
Once the scale of the crises begins to appear then gold will rise again – into orbit.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:44 PM 11 Comments

Market Oracle: Consequences of Housing Bubble Crash Ignored by the Media for 2 Years

While housing prices rose at 10% to 20% per year, the American people were duped into believing that such huge leaps were just part of the normal business cycle — just supply and demand. They never dreamed that the surge in prices was engineered at the Federal Reserve through artificially low interest rates. Everyone believed that things were just hunky-dory — that it was springtime in “the land of the free and the home of the chronically indebted”. Those who disagreed were derided as doomsayers or lunatics.

Posted by andrew - ealing @ 12:11 PM 8 Comments

BBC News: Nuclear bunker offered for sale

House hunters in Perthshire are being offered the chance to buy a nuclear bunker set in the grounds of an Edwardian mansion.

The Sun: It's Sol Gone Wrong For Brits

Who's have believed it? Britain's best-selling newspaper quotes the words "Ponzi scheme" in relation to the Spanish property market and suggests a crash might happen in the UK too.

BBC News: Poor Americans hit out at mortgage claims

Who should get the protection - banks or customers?

AWD Moneyextra: Original News Item

Average property prices fell in March to their lowest level since October last year.................

The Independent: At 2.8 per cent, UK growth is still robust. So how come living standards are falling?

Money supply has exploded leaving massive profits for companies and masive debts for consumers. Hence the economy doing well and consumers not.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:51 AM 20 Comments

Guardian: Repossession fears sparked by rate rises

"Even if the base rate stayed the same next month (scenario one) debt write-off rates would still reach 4.1% by 2009, which would be the highest rate since 1992. Our analysis shows that we might not be that far away from record, or near record, highs for write-offs and repossessions". Thus, it is neither supply nor demand, neither Russians nor Poles, neither marriages nor divorces, neither building permits nor developers... it's a simple 'cash squeeze' that will take the house of cards down!

Posted by confused76 @ 09:40 AM 11 Comments

independent: Bank warns of increased risks to the UK's financial system

In its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, the Bank said the financial system remained "highly resilient". Well conditions are still benign so of course this will be the case.

thisismoney.co.uk: Repossessions 'to double' if rates jump

The number of homes repossessed could more than double if interest rates rise next month, a report has warned. More than 115 families a day will lose their homes because they cannot afford soaring mortgage costs and other debts, it said yesterday.

Firstrung: House prices rise by 0.9% in April to £180,314 making interest rate rises a 'done deal' - Nationwide

Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: While a stable economic environment with contained inflation is essential for a well behaved housing market, we would caution against too sharp an interest rate response to current economic data. In our view, the talk of rates climbing to 6% and beyond are overblown and if implemented in the current climate could be damaging to housing market stability. With the market already showing signs of cooling, too sharp a rate hike could undermine market confidence and dry demand up swiftly. But on top of this, they could also lead to widespread payment difficulties which, in an illiquid market, could precipitate price falls."

Firstrung: Mi casa su casa or que será, será...

When the UK housing market finally turns many will begin to question just how they got sucked into re-mortgaging to enter the buying abroad mindset. Maybe reality will hit when the Spanish villa or apartment has lost the 20% deposit and the owners are sitting in the cheaper seats of the low-cost airline on their way to inspect their vacant and little used property. It's been vacant for months, the mortgage payment has doubled since 2004 and no-one's responding to the "buy, let or anything" pleading advert tucked away with thousands of others in the 'get 3 weeks advertising for the price of 2' section of the Exchange and Mart.

BBC: House price growth 'strengthens'

House price growth picked up again in April, the latest figures from Nationwide building society show.

Daily Mail: Buy-to-let could double by 2010

The number of buy-to-let landlords could double within three years despite fears of a property crash, a report reveals.

Posted by nearly30 @ 08:23 AM 6 Comments

Independent: As Spain falters, is the world's property boom coming to an end?

See how things stand around the world.

London Metro: Homes Blow to Live in Lovers

The most read paper by millions of London tube commuters. Last Paragraph is a goody.

Independent: Why buy-to-let landlords shouldn't panic - yet

Forecasters are now predicting squally weather for buy-to-let investors, pointing to rising interest rates, the highest cost of living for a decade, and even a possible property crash on the horizon.

dollar collapse: Housing bubble boondoggle

another well written analysis of the turmoil facing the US housing market that readers here might be interested to read

The Daly Mail: Spanish property slump set to claim thousands of British victims

Easygoing 'immigration' as allured by those silly TV programmes pushing 'living under the sun' without genuine interest in and respect for the Spanish way of life and culture, but some greed are making the lives of Spaniards difficult by driving their house prices to the same crazy level as in the UK. Remember this is exactly the same picture we shall see very soon throughout the British Isle, although the article still maintains the following silly mantra with little efficacy any more: "The situation is in contrast with the UK, where the problem has been a lack of new housing being built, which in turn has led to high house price inflation." Say this to those would-be ghost town new developments in all those major cities in the North and Scotland (Glasgow and Edinburgh).

Posted by japanese uncle @ 10:01 PM 7 Comments

Firstrung: Liverpool city centre could become a ghost town due to over-development

35% of Liverpool's new city centre apartments are lying empty, as an already flooded property market struggles to attract buyers, housing market experts claimed last night

Posted by confused76 @ 07:49 PM 16 Comments

Bloomberg: Subprime Bondholders May Lose $75 Billion From Slump

"Bond investors who financed the U.S. housing boom are starting to pay the price for slumping home values and record delinquencies in subprime loans. They will lose as much as $75 billion on securities made up of millions of mortgages to people with poor credit, says Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's biggest bond fund." "As many as 2.4 million Americans may lose their homes, the Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, North Carolina said in testimony to Congress last month. The National Association of Realtors this month said the median price for an existing home likely will fall 0.7 percent to $220,300 this year, the first annual drop since the trade group began keeping records in 1968 and probably the first decline since the Great Depression. "

Liverpool Echo: 35% of city flats are empty

UP TO 35% of Liverpool’s new city centre apartments are lying empty, as an already flooded property market struggles to attract buyers, housing market experts claimed last night...

BBC News: Dow Jones powers past 13,000 mark

The two just don't seem to add up and I suspect that in the long term in an economy propped up by cash borrowed on the back of property that there will big trouble will be ahead!

Firstrung.co.uk: House prices between Northern Ireland and the Republic are set to narrow according to the Bank of Ireland

"In the UK, Dr McLaughlin said, wage growth was sluggish and he expected interest rates to peak at 5.5%, not at 5.75% as the markets were predicting. On exchange rates he said that sterling was very stable against the euro - sterling had effectively joined the single currency. Consequently, the volatility of the euro/dollar rate had now transferred to sterling/dollar." IRs have peaked and no collapse in Sterling....interesting.

John Major on BBC Parliament: John Major on BBC Parliament

I saw this taped live, yesterday. It is on BBC Parliament on Saturday at 9PM. He doesn't pull many punches about Gordon Brown and reminds us of just how bad the economy was in 1990. This is well worth watching.

Telegraph: Homeowners warned of price crash in Spain

Homeowners with properties in Spain were yesterday warned of an impending house price crash, due to an oversupply of property and rising Spanish interest rates. Shares in Spanish property companies and banks tumbled as much as 22 per cent in a day on fears over tumbling Spanish house prices. The country has seen seven interest rate increases since December 2005 to 3.75 per cent, following a glut of construction activity.

Moneyextra: ouse prices fall to half-year low

House prices stalled in March - but first time buyers continued to come under pressure, says Moneyextra. Average property values fell in March to their lowest level since October last year. At £220,303, the average price is up just 4.8% on year-ago levels and is actually down 1.2% on February's £222,9231. Property values fell both for first time buyers and for home movers. However, the fall of just £891 - to an average £176,205 - for first time buyers - underlines that this is the sector of the housing market still experiencing the greatest price pressures. Despite the falls seen in the last month, first time buyers are still facing the largest increases in prices year on year, with the average price experienced by those looking to buy a house for the first time rising by 5.9%.

BBC News: Head to head: Too much information?

All people selling property in England and Wales will have to supply a Home Information Pack from 1 June. These packs contain basic details about the property as well as an energy performance certificate. The idea of the packs is to reduce the number of house sales which fall through. Two experts argue whether the packs are up for the task in hand.

Firstrung: Properyfinder.com discovers 'nimbyism' and ignorance during recent survey

Propertyfinder.com has revealed that 61.2 per cent of people questioned believe more affordable housing is needed for key workers - just not in their back yard...The latest Propertyfinder.com survey, which looked at public attitudes towards the planning process and new residential developments, found that in principle most people backed the idea of new housing to address supply problems (an estimated shortfall of 50,000 new homes every year). When it came to their own area however, only 39.1% wanted more housing built.

Bloomberg: Subprime `Liar Loans' Fuel Housing Bust With $1 Billion Fraud

Lack of supply was it? Too much demand? Not enough space? It was FRAUD, simply and plainly. Coupled with lax monetary policy. Remember everyone, Japan has a land area of 378,000 sq. km compared to the 245,000 sq. km of the UK, a population of 127m compared to the UK's 60m, is mostly mountainous and only has 20% of it's area available for habitation. Their property market has been in the toilet for 17 years. And that is with a powerful manufacturing economy. So for all those wondering how long this particular drubbing will take UK plc to limp out of the answer uis >17yrs.

Posted by lvmreader @ 11:27 AM 13 Comments

BBC: Sharp decline in US house sales

Sales of non-new US homes fell 8.4% in March, the sharpest month-on-month drop for 18 years and a further illustration of weakness in the US housing market.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:24 AM 9 Comments

Charles Hugh Smith: Weblog and wEssays: Real Estate Disconnect

The story is a few posts down, so search for "Real Estate Disconnect": "As homebuilders' stocks rise--"the worst is over" yet again--and as inventory of unsold houses piles up, we are witnesses to a grand disconnect of hope/perception from reality. It is merely an observation, not a value judgment, that reality eventually overwhelms perception." An interesting read, quoting several sources. Also relevant is the "Media Disconnect" post.

Yahoo Finance: Countrywide sees healthy market by 2009

Countrywide expects the U.S. mortgage market to show improvement in the middle of 2008, and to be "very healthy" for the largest U.S. mortgage lender in 2009.

MoneyWeek: Has Spain's property bubble just burst?

First America, now Spain. It looks like the Spanish may be the first group of Europeans to experience a painful ending to the global property boom. Yesterday, the Ibex index in Madrid closed down 2.7% as it was swept by “fears of a property crash,” writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph this morning. The wonder is that it has taken investors this long to become nervous…

Posted by mary @ 10:33 AM 15 Comments

BBC: UK sees economic growth quicken

The UK economy grew faster than expected in the three months between January and March, National Statistics figures show

Mirror: Homes 'Cool'

Short and too the point. May get into the consciousness of the masses.

Posted by auntie @ 09:21 AM 7 Comments

Telegraph: Beware the Mortgage Carrot

Borrowers should look further than the carrot dangled in front of them, as there could be a stick not too far away.

Krugergold Finance: Crash Caroons

All 3 of the "Crash Cartoons"

ft.com: Spanish property boom ends

Excess stock, corruption, heavy debt load. In many parts of Spain, house prices are falling. A "Soft landing"?

FT.COM: Spanish property groups weigh on Europe

Fears that the Spanish property bubble, which drove companies like Metrovacesa and Sacyr Vallehermoso more than 100 per cent higher last year, was in danger of bursting was highlighted by Monday’s 41 per cent fall for Astroc Mediterraneo

Posted by sirgoogle @ 08:35 PM 7 Comments

Financial Sence Online: END OF THE BOOM - DJIA 3000

Very interesting blog article that takes a look at the history of home values and the Dow.

BBC News: The future is female, BT predicts

We have had the industrial age, we have had the information economy. But now for something different: "the care economy" [2020],

Posted by nearly30 @ 07:33 PM 6 Comments

BBC News: Chancellor reveals maths weakness

I did maths at school and for one year at university but I don't think I was ever very good at it - and some people would say it shows," Mr Brown laughed

thisismoney.co.uk: Inflation will fall sharply, says King

He said: 'CPI inflation has risen but now expect it to fall back - this could be a sharp fall back over the next four to six months.' Mr King was giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee on the 10 years of the banks' monetary policy committee (MPC), which took control of interest rates in 1997. The MPC is charged with keeping inflation within a 1% range of the bank's 2% inflation target. The governor added that the committee's outlook for inflation was little changed despite March's rise and said that the MPC had to 'look through the fog to the medium-term prospects'.

Daily Mail: House price boom is over warns Bank of England boss

The era of booming house prices and low inflation could be coming to an end, according to an ominous warning from the Bank of England. In an unusually strong alert, the normally cautious central bank said: "We cannot guarantee that the next ten years will be so 'nice'."

New York Times: Plunge in Existing-Home Sales Is Steepest Since ’89

Sales of existing houses see record fall as well as a price decline. All this is happening in US despite record low unemployment and falling interest rates.

trendsman: The American Inflation:

This guy's view is that it all ends in hyper-inflation Great graph in the middle that shows US CPI has been fudged since 1982. shadowstats.com says inflation in the US is 10%

National Statistics Online: Measuring Inflation

Re earlier post regarding Mervyn Kings comments on inflation, the chap may well be right due to the rising value of the pound and adjustments made by the ONS to their virtual shopping basket. Can anyone spot any items listed that may go up in price!

LSE: House price growth remains "in check"

Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, told BBC Two's Working Lunch that even though economic conditions were similar to those that led to the last housing market decline, it was unlikely that the UK would see another "slump".

London Evening Standard: Number of £2m homes in London hits all-time high

According to estate agents and most economists there is no sign yet of a crash. Peter Rollings, managing director of west London agents Marsh & Parsons, said: "The top end of the market is frighteningly strong. It is just amazing the amount of money people are charging for homes - you can almost name your price right now."

daily express: BIG RUSH TO BEAT MORTGAGE RATE RISE

HOME owners are borrowing £1billion a day in the rush for mortgages to beat higher interest rates.

Landlord Expert: London house prices research

House prices in London have increased by 14.9 per cent in the last year according to research out today from Halifax.

The Mirror: HOMES 'COOL'

THE white-hot housing market could finally be starting to cool down - but it could be too late to stop another interest rate rise next month. Mortgage lending set a new March peak of £31billion, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders - 10 per cent up on a year ago. But experts say this reflected a rush to remortgage before fixed-rate deals got more expensive. "There are clear signs the housing market may finally be coming off the boil as higher interest rates and spiralling house prices squeeze new buyers out of the market," said Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight. But economists are still predicting a rise to 5.5 per cent when the Bank of England meets next week.

citywire: UK sees ‘seasonal’ house price fall

UK house prices suffered a surprise 1% fall in February, figures released by the Department of Communities and Local Government have shown. The fall was due to a 1.1% decline in the price of bungalows and 0.5% falls in both detached homes and terraced houses, only partially offset by a 0.9% increase for flats and a 0.1% increase for semi-detached homes.

Telegraph: Higher rates beginning to dampen mortgage demand

Rising interest rates are causing demand for mortgages to slow, according to high-street lender Bradford & Bingley. The building society said that mortgage approvals for house purchases have fallen back from their recent peak, althou