Monday, Apr 02, 2007
Roger Bootle - plonker
The Telegraph: US-style housing crash unlikely to occur here - we hope
Quote - "As in the US, things will be fine in the mortgage market and house prices will keep rising - as long as house prices keep rising."
Sounds like a bubble then.
Conversely in 2008 house prices will keep falling – as long as house prices keep falling.
Roger Bootle - What a prize idiot
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:28 AM (141 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. Surfgatinho said...
A lot of this seems to be based on interest rates and how ours haven't risen as much as in the US.
WAKE UP! Our borrowers are twice as leveraged you muppet!
2. financial planner said...
There is no such thing as an asset which 'keeps rising'. For goodness sake Roger!
3. royston said...
Guys,
I think you're missing the irony in what he is saying!
He's right - things will be OK as long as house prices keep rising - but how long can that be? He spent the entire preceding article describing how every contributory factor is maxed out.
4. taffee said...
He forgot to mention that we have more subprime/non-status/buy-to-let than US and that the average price here is almost twice the US average but wages are not twice....I get the feeling that almost everyone in london has a vested interest in property and cannot bring themselves to report the prospects of a crash!
5. paul said...
s2r1 - I'm not sure you've been fair to Roger.
Read between the lines, look at what he actually writes (not what the strapline says), and you see a very bearish picture as royston points out.
"As in the US, things will be fine in the mortgage market and house prices will keep rising - as long as house prices keep rising."
That's him defying his editor who is a drinking buddy of the property section sub-editor and siltently mouthing "YOU'RE ALL DOOMED!".
He's not being bullish at all.
6. Tangara said...
It's the sort of article where the autor tries to make the reader to come to the conclusion by himself, not by telling directly from the headline...
Personally, at the end of the article I thought "...as long as house prices keep rising. Yes but, IF THEY DON'T ?"
Going to the conclusion by yourself may be far more effective than just reading it.
7. geed said...
Unfortunately, I fear those who should take heed of the general message Bootle is trying to portray will not understand his irony.
8. cyril said...
The comparison between the US and the UK shows that interest rates in the UK have not gone high enough yet (relative to their respective long run average levels) to bring about the 'correction' that everyone knows is about to happen. The MPC probably realises it's too late to take any action now, having watched the housing market explosion over the last 5 years or so. Better to wait for it to collapse under its own weight and let someone else take the blame.
PS I loved that phrase in the US foreclosure story: It's not the American Dream anymore," said Fran Napolitano, a county clerk in Hackensack. "It's who can I stab next."