Wednesday, Apr 11, 2007
Reuters claim that London property demand is even greater.
Reuters: London house price growth hits 32 percent
I have some questions:
When will we see London prices fall?
Will they follow or precede the rest of the country?
What is the course of events of a crash and recession?
How long will it take before property investment is a good idea again?
Posted by disillusioned @ 11:20 AM (136 views) Add Comment
4 Comments
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1. confused76 said...
I can tell you about London. The start will coincide with the next downturn in the City (like the one we had in 2001/02, which was pretty bad). First rents will collapse, then the BoE will cut rates and trash the GBP. BTL'ers, Russians and Middle Easterns will try to liquidate their assets, it will be a stampede.
When?... impossible to say, since it will be triggered by international events... the next terrorist attack? US / Asian crisis?
In a way, I hope it happens as late as possible... or never. But statistically it is pretty certain.
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
32% for central London - this is more like it.
I was wondering when the really crazy HPI was going to show up.
This is the winner's curse phase - the same as 1999 in tech-stocks.
The LSR prediction for 2007 UK HPI will be spot on at 15%
There is only one thing we can do as we watch the boom and bust from the sidelines.
Make sure you have enough invested in precious metals.
3. sold 2 rent 1 said...
disillusioned,
Everyone has their own point of view.
Here are my answers
When will we see London prices fall?
Q1/Q2 2008
Will they follow or precede the rest of the country?
London first after stocks crash
What is the course of events of a crash and recession?
Recession first then HPC
How long will it take before property investment is a good idea again?
It could be a decade or more. Look at Japan
4. Sam said...
oh I like this game;
When will we see London prices fall?
Q4 this year. - (Oct/Nov are normally choice months for crashes)
Will they follow or precede the rest of the country?
I think the country is taking the lead with this one - esp with the BTL brigade.
What is the course of events of a crash and recession?
I think it will be caused by a credit crunch following a US crash and China'n'India trying to boost their own economies by having massive national growth and causing an increase in prices for all those goods we've got used to getting cheaply while at the same time entering into new markets with products they've not made in the past - think computers, white goods, and cars.
How long will it take before property investment is a good idea again?
If we follow Japan's model, then 10years+ if we follow what we did last time (increase intrest rates and let the pound hold some of it's value)- then probably just 5+ years.
I think the long term goal is to join the EuroZone, and the best time to do that will be when the pound has dipped in value. so deflation may be what's instore.