Thursday, Apr 05, 2007
No news - but still important
IG Index: House Price Betting
I have nearly got the spread betting account set up with delta index for Irish house price betting.
The UK firm I will open soon will be IG Index
It offers regional HP betting – which I think should be much easier to predict than national.
They offer all their House Price bets for the next four quarters
I am going to be monitoring the regional rental yields as this is the key to how much property is out of step.
In the 1990 HPC, the UK market fell by 10% nationally, but 40% in East Anglia.
Does anybody know where I can get good regional rental yield information from?
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:37 AM (149 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. Stoney said...
Haha. Idiot. Carry on and gamble away the tiny deposit you have struggled to save..
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Stoney,
House prices fell in Ireland 2.2% this quarter.
I won't be shorting the UK market until late 2007 / early 2008
We'll see who the idiot is in 2010
3. inbreda said...
Thanks S2R1
I will be opening an account shortly, but I will delay investing for a little while. I'm interested in seeing whether they would be able to prevent investment at a point where it becomes clear the market is falling (for definite, rather than just turbulence).
Can't help with rental yield info - sorry
4. sold 2 rent 1 said...
It seems spread betting on HP is pretty restricted.
Neither market on Dublin or London houses prices are open.
Probably because in Dublin all the bets are to go down in price and in London the bets are to go up (for the time being)
5. Miniftse said...
For IG, it doesn't matter if prices rise or fall, IG make there money on the spread, so all they need is a pool of property. I think the significance of this is its confirmation that housing is most definetly (for the first time in history) a speculative asset, and we all know whats patterns are associated with speculative assets. All a product like this does is amplify the damage when the trend turns! Bring it on.
6. Rimmer said...
S2R1
Not such a bad idea however all odds change as economic data comes in, i suspect as the truth becomes evident it wont be as easy to get a deal.
Saying that please do post any links to how its done - i may well have a flutter, i remember and was part off ( didnt loose any money though ) the dot.com bit, that was a mad rush to be part of something and nobody really knew why other than if they wernt they might miss out, i know people who lost their lifes savings on it.
7. Tom said...
You generally get bad yields in the following areas.
Nice (and expensive) places such as Kensington, Windsor, Oxford, Epsom.
Boom areas where prices have recently rocketed such as N Ireland. (Prices overshoot compared to rents)
You tend to get good yields in cheap, grotty areas and places where there is planning blight,
eg Middlesbrough South Bank estate (half of it is boarded up), Burnley (slum clearance about to start) Port Glasgow (druggie hellhole full of sectarian strife)
There's a chap called Ahuja who runs a property hotspots website (paysite) that lists all the yields by borough and property type, but you could find out this info by using rightmove to look at sales and rentals ads (free but more time consuming).