Tuesday, Apr 24, 2007
k-winter is showing classic credit crunch phase
thelongwaveanalyst: 4 phases of longwave
Look at the winter section of the circle
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:30 PM (215 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
The IR movements in the k-winter are:
"Rates fall, the rise in credit crunch, the fall much lower."
I do believe that we will be in a full blown credit crunch by the year end.
As the world economies tip into recession, rates will fall.
I don't see UK IR going above 6.5 - 7.0.
The economy will hit the buffers and unemployment will rise sharply.
I've changed my view slightly over the weekend.
I see China's economy overheating and ending in a bust.
They will eventually have to end the urbanisation of 20m people a year
There will just not be the jobs for them as the world economies tip into recession.
Inflation v deflation
I can't see anything except a deflationary slump by 2010
2. Houseoflords said...
Is putting this stuff on the front page of HPC really going to help the cause or confirm to people there a bunch of nutters here?
It's all very useful I'm sure but is it better placed on the forum as I'm not quite sure it's news.
3. Shipbuilder said...
C'mon, this is akin to Mystic Meg - any point in time could be shoehorned into the wheel somewhere. Sentiment suggests Autumn, rising interest rates suggest Winter, rising inflation suggests Summer. See what I mean? If anything, we may be in Autumn, but....gold, inflation and commodities dropping?
These are hardly minor discrepancies. All this graph looks like is a rough guide to the economic cycle and is informative as such. Putting a time on the phases, as you did - 11,13,9,20,17,16,18 - hardly consistent.
Basically you're trying to convince us that there's a bust after a boom. What's the name of this site again?
4. nearly30 said...
S2R1 - are you on the verge of a breakdown - a la George Monsoon? Don't go smacking anyone then!
K-Waves are interesting though - don't know whether they can be so prescriptive - only time will tell - but they certainly illuminate on possible trends.
5. sold 2 rent 1 said...
nearly30,
Thanks for the concern but I am just a little excited about the K-wave theory.
As you may know I had my own personal wave theories but these were always at the secular level.
Now I can see the link between the business cycle, the secular sycle and the k-wave cycle.
One wonders if there is another 140 year cycle above the k-wave.
I am still intrigued by Uncle Tom's variant on the k-winter. He is keeping his cards close to his chest though.
I am now busy reorganising my portfolio.
I am now getting out of the Turkish Lira.
The 17.5% interest was nice but the currency will plunge when the carry trade implodes later this summer.
6. Rickyb said...
It seems to me that it's always quite easy to find patterns in sets of historical data, and to find an algorithm to describe it. However, if it is necessary to keep modifying the algorithm in the light of new data, it doesn't strike me as being a useful way of predicting future trends.