Friday, Apr 27, 2007
Gold may fall before it will rise
goldprice: The Dow in Gold Dollars has Been Warning that Stocks Were About to Rally Against Gold
Food for thought
Just a quick warning on some of these sites I post
Sites like www.goldprice.org and www.zealllc.com offer some valuable posts for investing.
Both of these sites are firm believers that we are in a secular bear that started in 2000.
How both sites also think that the secular bear will play out like in the 1970's with a huge commodity boom and inflation
Whilst they may be correct, not all secular bears are the same
Secular bears can be either k-summer or k-winter.
The 1970's was a k-summer and IMHO we will not be repeating this again
With any article you read, always bear in mind the author's knowledge of secular bears
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:26 AM (187 views) Add Comment
1 Comment
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
This brings me onto Smithy from The Sunday Times.
Maybe he is not the plonker many think he is.
His knowledge of the business cycle is not bad.
His prediction that HPC would not happen in 2004/5 came true.
What lets him down is his lack of understanding of secular cycles and k-waves.
Although I am sure he would claim to completely understand them.
He seems to be out on a limb again with regarding inflation.
He is a lone crusader that we have not got an inflation problem.
He may well be correct on this.
But because he can't make the epistemological shift from business to secular to k-wave his interpretations of likely outcomes fall short.
Smith in all his forecasts is predicting deflation - only he dosn't know it yet.