Monday, Apr 02, 2007
Going down??
Daily telegraph: House prices to drop in 2008
The housing market is heading for a fall next year, experts have warned, after it emerged that property is at its most overvalued level in more than 15 years. The shortage of suitable houses for sale means many deals are being decided through sealed bids. Soaring prices are putting properties out of reach for many, with unaffordability reaching the worst level since the end of the last major crash.
Posted by dr k @ 01:39 PM (146 views) Add Comment
4 Comments
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1. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Psychology, fundamentals, reality, all together now, give me an H, H! Give me a P, P! Give me a CCcceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
What's that I smell.. er, toast ;)
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
I posted this earlier:
Lombard Street Research are the most accurate predictors in the UK
There is no graph again this quarter.
Here is the graph from 6 months ago
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/graphics/2006/10/02/cnhouse02big.gif
The index was:
97 in October 2006
94.3 in January 2007
91.2 in April 2007
This shows that the index falling at a rate of 3 points per quarter.
IMHO the graph will need to hit 80 (the same as 1975) before a crash starts.
This matches up with the 33 year cycle we are in.
The index takes into account
real disposable income (growing slowest for years)
interest rates (rising steadily)
house prices (rising steadily).
My prediction for the index is:
88 in July 2007
85 in October 2007
82 in January 2008
79 in April 2008
The crash will start by Q2 2008. Mark my words.
Slowly at first but reaching full blown by 2010.
As noted a few days ago, Fred Harrison has got it spot on so far.
Economic cycles exist. We just don’t really understand how or why they are they are so accurate.
3. enuii said...
Just had this garbage through my door aimed at the young and gullible by one of our local spiv developers. 'Waterside Living, Williams Wharf', reserve one of our beautiful new apartments and get a free LCD TV, DVD Player, PSP and Stereo/Hi-fi, properties from £108495. As if anyone other than the dumb would think it was a great deal for a tiny 1 bed flat next to the stinking manchester ship canal especially when you will have 300 neighbours on the same plot and the canal is a 30ft drop down in a cutting.
The shortage of suitable housing is absolutely right especially when developers are building far to much shite like this.
4. tyrellcorporation said...
A friend of mine recently put his house up for sale. By the time he'd left the estate agent he'd put his existing house up for rent instead and bought a new house on an interest only mortgage with a but-to-let product. This type of blatant mis-selling will be another scandal to unravel over the next few years. The spin tells him 'do you want to buy an investment property and pay for your personal mortgage with rental income and capital growth?' He's already admitted to me that he'll never make any money on it unless values rise! - lunacy! The World has gone mad!!!
This is being repeated all over the UK as people are pursuaded by shysters not to sell but to simply buy again.
Incidentally the general sheeple mentality was brought home to me by the tell-tale comment that his rental property was 'his nest-egg' and effectively replaced having a pension. For anyone on this forum who thinks regular Gordon Brown beatings are a little off-topic, you can't be further from the truth. This bloke's rape of one of the most envied privately held personal pension systems in the western world is a scandal of epic proportions. thank f*ck the media are finally waking up to what this guy did back in '97! It's the systemic mistrust of the pensions system that has helped fuel the rush into bricks and mortar.