Thursday, Apr 19, 2007
Future Shock: Property Crash
RTE: Irish Property Crash
Documentary about the imminent property crash in Ireland. There have been a number of recent posts about the reaction to this documentary - our friend Morgan Kelly's appearance on RTE's Prime Time, the Belfast newspaper's accusation of 'irresponsible' programming - well, here is the original documentary. There is a good section on the last UK property crash in the early 1990s.
Posted by royston @ 12:36 AM (887 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. David20040_0 said...
Well worth watching, an hour long but really worth it.
2. David20040_0 said...
It is interesting however that the RTE documentary only predicts that buyers who bought in 2006 and 2007 would suffer negative equity and everyone lese would survive.
3. Wannabeemigre said...
Assuming that those that bought prior to 2006 hadnt MEW'd themselves into a black-hole
4. sold 2 rent 1 said...
The biggest issue with HPC is not negative equity but unemployment.
NE means you have to stay put for a decade.
Unemployment means losing your house
5. george monsoon said...
The biggest issue with HPC is that I will actually be able to buy a house at an affordable price..... Providing I still have a job.
6. Disillusioned said...
I was amused by the mortgage provider assuring the programme that - the company's objective is to make sure that repayments are easily within their customers' grasp! 10 x salary?Yeah right!
7. royston said...
Don't forget that there is an awful lot of Irish money in the UK property market. The Irish got a very bad and prolonged case of 'gold fever' when it comes to property (- it's funny - for at least 30 years up to 1995, Irish property was a consistently poor investment - but no trace of this fact can be found in the memories of Irish people today!). Anyway, gripped with this fever, Irish investors have been steadily buying property all over the UK for the past decade. Two questions: 1) What happens to their 'healthy' UK investment when these guys turn bearish on property? and 2) what happens when these guys have to sell property to pay their steadily increasing euro-based BTL mortgage payments? My guess is that the currently strong Pound means that now is an ideal time to cash in UK property investments and bring the cash back into euro. If they leave it, A) the Pound will probably decline, lowering the euro value of their UK property investments, B) the ECB will probably increase interest rates increasing the value of the euro, which lowers the euro value of their UK property investments.
8. Tara747 said...
Good analogy #7!
9. doomwatch said...
In the final analysis at the end, one of the scenarios for a crash accelerator was banks tighening credit in early 2009.
The UK is at that point today with mortgage companies pulling deals. Buckle up ladies.
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12. Clisare said...
hello, does anyone know where i can watch this documentary online, that link just brings me to a summary of it. thanks!