Thursday, Mar 22, 2007
What would an escalation in military hostilities do to our currency and thus credit supply
Hartford Courant: Crude Prices Rise Slightly
Remember that House Prices are a symptom of the credit / money supply in the economy. Furthermore geopolitical effects shape currency at least as much as "simple" economics. What do you think business confidence will do if an obvious shooting war begins?
2 Killed in Nuclear Submarine Fire in Northern Russia
Canadian dies of injuries from submarine fire
Two sailors die in explosion on nuclear sub under Arctic ice
US Navy investigating 'vanishing submarine' incident
Posted by lvmreader @ 12:39 AM (162 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. lvmreader said...
2 Killed in Nuclear Submarine Fire in Northern Russia
Canadian dies of injuries from submarine fire
Two sailors die in explosion on nuclear sub under Arctic ice
US Navy investigating 'vanishing submarine' incident
2. monty said...
lvm
That link is to an article titled "Schwab Trading Shift Faces Revenue Test"
>2 Killed in Nuclear Submarine Fire in Northern Russia
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/09/07/submarfire.shtml
September 2006
>Canadian dies of injuries from submarine fire
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2004/10/06/saunders041006.html
October 2004
>Two sailors die in explosion on nuclear sub under Arctic ice
Yesterday
>US Navy investigating 'vanishing submarine' incident
Last week
Given that these incidents are only related by the fact that they happened underwater is your point that submarines are dangerous places to work?
3. lvmreader said...
Thanks for posting those links.
My point is that the market seems oblivious to what seems like a very clear rise in military acivity.
Remember when that RAF Hercules was shot down in Aghanistan - it was said it was an accident until it wasn't. Same with most of the helicopters the US/UK have lost Iraq & Afghanistan. As things hot up, there will be more and more reports of accidents on subs, planes, ships, whatever military hardware until the powers-that-be say - "Actaully chaps, we've been at war for a little while now"
Then watch our beloved housing market. People will then realise that no-one but their immediate neighbours gives a hoot about their latest Moben kitchen. And even then, only for a few more days.
The market does not seem to be pricing in the risk of full blown escalation of hostilites involving attack subs and ballistic missile subs.
Not even a glimmer on the market on this news.
4. monty said...
That may well be but it is infinitely more likely that World War 3 has *not* broken out under the icecaps and that submarines really are a dangerous place to work which is why the market is going to ignore it until something a little more substantial comes along.
There is method to the madness of claiming shot down aircraft are accidents. It is an attempt to deny the insurgents/terrorists/freedom fighters/jihadis/Iranians/Iraqis/whoever the immediate propaganda value of claiming a downed aircraft until the news is no longer hot. It also allows for the possibility that the aircraft really did crash by accident - like the Nimrod in Afganistan.
5. lvmreader said...
It may be nothing, but the rhetoric from both Russia and China is hotting up.
Russian lawmaker warns US of ‘potential crisis’
By Neil Buckley in Moscow
Published: March 22 2007 17:41 | Last updated: March 22 2007 17:41
US-Russian relations are heading for a potential crisis unless Washington drops its unilateral approach to foreign policy, a senior Russian lawmaker has warned.
Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the international affairs committee of the Russian Duma, says that President Vladimir Putin’s strongly-worded speech in Munich last month criticising US unilateralism was not a declaration of a new cold war. Instead, it was a call for the White House to return to a multilateral framework for resolving issues such as the nuclear programmes of Iran and North Korea, or the future of the breakaway Serbian province of Kosovo.
Writing in Friday’s Financial Times, Mr Kosachev – one of the most senior members of Russia’s foreign policy community – says he does not “exclude the possibility that relations with the US could become much worse in future”.
“But this is not the case yet,” Mr Kosachev insists. “We are at an important and sensitive stage at which the US has a choice – to be transparent and understandable in its actions, or to continue to ignore Russia.
“If the US continues to act unilaterally this ... could push us towards a crisis,” he adds.
His comments echo Mr Putin’s speech and reflect widespread unease at what is seen as Washington’s attempt to create a “unipolar” world and a readiness to use force, as in Iraq.
There is frustration in Russia that the consensus after the September 11 terrorist attacks – when Mr Putin allowed the US to use bases in former Soviet central Asia to support the invasion of Afghanistan – has broken down.
Mr Kosachev warns that a crisis could occur if the US and Russia “stop communicating”, and continued unilateral actions by Washington finally push Moscow into unilateral responses.
That could happen over Kosovo, he asserts. If the US and European Union recognise the province’s independence without Belgrade’s agreement and a United Nations resolution, Moscow might then acknowledge the independence of “frozen” territories within the former Soviet Union, such as the separatist Georgian enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
6. monty said...
"Year after year the worriers and fritters would come to me with awful
predictions of the outbreak of war. I denied it each time. I was only
wrong twice." -- British Foreign Office Researcher from 1903-1950
7. lvmreader said...
@Monty
Appreciate the ironic comment - have a look at the lastest rhetoric:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6489493.stm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4EmRcrxr6sc&refer=home
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/23/news/iraq.php