Wednesday, Mar 07, 2007
US - Toll Brothers admits, no rebound in housing
Bloomberg: Housing Rebound Elusive as Market Fails to Reduce Lost Deposits
Looks like the fabled US rebound in housing is failing to materialise.
Posted by pricedout.org.uk @ 10:18 AM (144 views) Add Comment
9 Comments
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1. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Where's Glorious Sunshine when I want to rub his ill-considered, assertion-rich, perma-bull nose in the facts?
I believe it was once glibly stated that, although prices can never go down here, if they did, people would jump in and buy, to which browbeaten bears replied that catching falling knives was not an art most like to practice.
Well here it is in Bloomberg black-and-white:
"A year after the housing slump began, the spring selling season is off to a rocky start with a glut of unsold properties and buyers [...] putting off purchases, thwarting any chance of a recovery."
Surely it could never happen here. People will always want houses, even when they stand to lose thousands in a falling market and they can't get a mortgage approval anyway because of the credit crunch and the debts they are paying off.
GS, I hope for your sake you are having luck selling that BTL property - perhaps that's what has been keeping you off the forum of late? I still take you vaguely at face value, because though you love poking fun, there was something behind it that sounded like you believed what you were saying, albeit it seemed not to have been considered much beyond received tabloid wisdom, and that worries me.
I hope the warning tremors from the US, rising global interest rates and the myriad other signals are persuading you that the people you enjoyed teasing do have a point and would (hopefully still) prefer to see you out of trouble.
2. Tangara said...
Who would rush buying in florida after reading this article ?
Not me, I would wait !
3. waitingfor hpc said...
no - let him sink - will be fun to see what tune he sings on here then. Maybe the one that goes ...' living in a box, a cardboard box....'
4. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Or "hindsight is 20-20 vision".. =)
5. harold said...
CHORUS
Great minds against themselves conspire
And shun the cure they most desire.
DIDO [Cupids appear in the clouds o're her tomb]
Thy hand, Belinda, darkness shades me,
On thy bosom let me rest,
More I would, but Death invades me;
Death is now a welcome guest.
When I am laid in earth, May my wrongs create
No trouble in thy breast;
Remember me, but ah! forget my fate.
Dido and Aeneas. Music composed by Henry Purcell. Libretto by Nahum Tate
Too highbrow for GS?
6. rich said...
>> dohousescrashinthewoods said...
>> I hope the warning tremors from the US, rising global interest rates and the myriad other signals
>> are persuading you that the people you enjoyed teasing do have a point and would (hopefully still)
>> prefer to see you out of trouble.
The only way he's getting out of trouble would be to sell his overinflated portfolio to others. That means someone we know to be greedy and obnoxious benefiting at the expense of a more-complete stranger who may actually be a nice person.
Given the odds, I'd rather not start taking sides on his behalf.
7. Timbuk3 said...
I love this article, especially the bit with the CEO of Toll Brothers telling investors 3mths ago that the market was poised to rebound and then being so surprised when it didn't happen.
To paraphrase Mandy Rice Davies ' He would say that wouldn't he' Why do investors believe this is it because they want to?
8. inbreda said...
I wont have a pop at GS, but webmaster - do you think it would be possible to construct a part of the site for 'most disasterous comments' where we can look back at the worst of the worst..... "There is no way that house prices will rise any further - I'd bet my Jon Thomas on it", posted by overoptimistic on Jan 2001, for example. Poke fun at the Bulls and the Bears alike.
??
9. talking rot said...
Webmaster
Inbreda has a superb idea. I'd even volunteer to trawl through the archives myself. I'd especially like to drag up some comments from a Blogger called "caesium".
Alas, much of the archive records the comments made but not the author. But hey, who is interested in scoring points. Most of the bears on this site (including me) expected the crash would start in 2005 and we were wrong. But I would like like to see some of the comments made by bulls.
Can any one recall what constituted a crash? Was it 20% over 2 years or was it 40% over the medium term in real values?