Wednesday, Mar 07, 2007
US recession is ‘one-third probability'
FT.com: Greenspan risks new row with Fed
Alan Greenspan risked stirring renewed controversy on Tuesday when he told the Bloomberg news agency that there was a “one-third probability” of a US recession this year.
The former Federal Reserve chairman’s comments are starkly at odds with the relatively upbeat assessment made by Ben Bernanke, his successor, in testimony to Congress last week.
Mr Bernanke has not put any figure on the likelihood of a US recession this year. However, his public remarks suggest that, while he feels there may be some chance of a hard landing so painful that it results in negative growth this year, the likelihood of that is much less than one in three.
Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 09:18 AM (167 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. harold said...
Greenspan is now free to speak his mind, unlike Bernanke - who would you rather believe? However, IMHO I'd put the likelihood of a US recession this year at about 50%, and in 2008 at 100%!
2. Sam said...
harold, that statistic doesnt make sense. I think you mean. 50% this year, and 50% next but 100% for sure by 2008.
we shouldnt get carried away and forget that we should do our best to make sense when talking down some of the biggest economic players in the world.
3. inbreda said...
Dunno Sam, seems to make sense to me.
4. waitingfor hpc said...
makes sense to me too!
5. harold said...
Sam, 2008 is 'next', so it cannot be "50% this year, and 50% next but 100% for sure by 2008". But I think we may both be being a little pedantic. Truth is neither G or B are likely to be honest in their assessments of the US economy. It is therefore significant that people like G have started to doubt the way things are heading in the states. It's all just part of the picture that has been made to look artificially good over the past few years by cheap credit = borrowed time, while Bush/Blair carry out a few foreign policy initiatives at our expense. This is ending... soon.
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