Tuesday, Mar 06, 2007
Retail sales figures show stunning rise
Firstrung: Retail sales up strongly in February could prompt interest rate rise
The jump in like for like sales (Feb 2006 v Feb 2007) is huge and despite the coded plea from the BRC this could give the MPC the readily available ammunition to raise interest rate rises - given that their decisions often accompany statements on 'shopping'...
Posted by converted lurker @ 10:47 AM (380 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. Jim Tallis said...
Unlikely me thinks given the recent market turmoils. MPC unlikely to want to unnerve the markets any more than they currently are.
2. harold said...
Timely stats for the MPC to grapple with. It's also been a rocky few days for the £ too, so they might just be tempted to up rates. I still feel, however, that the MPC will do nothing this week, sad to say.
3. japanese uncle said...
I think I personally contributed to this by purchasing 37 inch TV, HD-CD recorder, HD-DVD recorder, Hifi-rack, book cases, regretfully.
4. rich said...
Cool. DVD night at japanese uncles place!
Much as I'd prefer to see another rate rise which might help put my girlfriend off buying a place (I've tried to tell her but the nesting instinct is very strong), I suspect that the MPC is likely to leave rates on hold.
I'm basing this on a personal opinion that they'll need very compelling evidence to risk spooking the country with yet another rate rise so soon after the last.
5. Sam said...
maybe, but then again people take the fact that only 2 suggested a rise last month means there's little chance of a rise this month.
I think that they may have planned not to hike up rates two months in a row, and also those inflation figures may still be teetering around the 2.7/3.0 mark. if that's so then I guess we're closer to the rise than most people think.
not sure how having the budget coming up is going to affect their thinking too.
personally, think they've left it too late. not sure what they can do to sort things out.
6. uncle chris said...
Personally I call a 0.25% rise (although they could do with a bigger shock) - dont think it will take much to convince 3 MPC members to change their vote for a rise.
Much as I would like a large flat panel TV, my large flat screen CRT is still gong strong, thus I'm forced to reflect on the wise-old adage of (1) Do I want one (2) Do I need one and (3) Can I afford one?, which is sadly ignored in the modern 'live for today' society. Not that I'm turning down an invitation to DVD night at JU's - hope there's food.
7. Pelethar said...
They won't put rates up this week - they will not be keen to attract attention right before a budget statement. They would only consider doing so if all the market data overwhelmingly supported a rise - at the moment the data is probably just about ambiguous enough for them to be able to get away with doing nothing.
8. enuii said...
Hey, if you can't afford a house or can't afford to move then why not give up and buy stuff instead, it beats sitting at home and saving! Holidays and new cars and chinese widgets all round then and if interest rates stay on hold we can all buy even more stuff.
9. sirgoogle said...
Rich
It is weird. Girls typically do not read papers or listen to the news. Sorry to be sexisit - but that is how it is for most folk.
My wife also wants to buy (fed up with renting). I am refusing - until I know I will be in the same job for at least another 10 years (yes I have that possibility coming up in the next few months). She says the I have been saying the crash is comming for ages (which I have - since 2003). I remind her of the 11 years of Negative equity we had last time we did this - se we need to know we will be around for a while.
Thankfully she has seen the DVD on Global Warming (an inconvienient Truth) and is now less keen to buy here in The Netherlands (cos of the flood map).
10. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Rich, sirgoogle, my wife is so fed up of me going on about the economy and HPC that she decided to do some reading herself on the Internet and now thinks there could be something in all my talk.
I thought it was worth mentioning as, though she is a rare jewel in the female crown, she too is sick of renting and wants to paint walls so there is hope for all of us. The key is usually to listen and be relaxed about being wrong (let's face it, boys, we usually are) and when she has had a chance to talk and been thoroughly listened to and undrstood (empathy is good, "yes, but.." is bad), she may be more receptive to doing some research herself.
Or is it that I serendipitously find myself with an unusually with-it lady?
11. harold said...
Jim Tallis? No relation to Thomas?
12. C'mon Correction said...
I too have the convincing the girlfriend problem. I've been saying for the last two years it is too risky to buy at the minute. Thankfully here in South Wales there are many examples of stagnation in property prices that she has seen for herself in that time. I really think though unless there is bigger price falls here by spring '08 when we're getting married, then she'll want to risk our savings and buy.
However, I have come up with a fairly complex budget spreadsheet that compares cost of renting for another three years compared to buying and given the ability to change variables (interest rates, inflation, maintenance costs etc). If the market does the same for the next three years as previous three years then we will be £36,400 better off by renting than buying ! This has convinced her and she is happier... for now !!