Friday, Mar 02, 2007
8pm Friday night: The usual VI spin from Trev's team ?
ITV1: House Price Forecast: Tonight
"Amid persistent warnings of an imminent property crash,
Tonight consults experts about their predictions on house prices for the coming year"
I'm not sure if the senior staff at ITV have managed to sell off all their investment properties yet, so watch
this programme to be told by "experts" (the usual VI cheer leaders rolled out from estate agencies and
mortgage lenders) that the UK property market is alive and well.
If there is any bear advice, I notice, as usual, it's been scheduled for Friday night when a large part
of the country are drowning their sorrows, probably FTB woe related.
Posted by doomwatch @ 11:33 AM (200 views) Add Comment
9 Comments
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1. Andy said...
I wonder if Nationwide and Halifax have got there advertisement slots in there as well?
There's probably nothing else worth watching and need to get something out of the TV license this year.
2. C'mon Correction said...
The last Tonight show regarding UK House Prices was quite balanced. However it was quite short-sighted on most economic factors; it didn't predict rates at 5.25% in Jan for instance or the likely event we'll see rates at or above 5.75% by the end of this year. Mind you our Government and average Joe Public are equally short-sighted !!
Watch with a pinch of salt !
3. The Capitalist said...
Should be Bear-ish as the ever-sensible MoneyWeek editor Merryn Somerset-Webb is being interviewed by Trev...
4. Flintster said...
Actually, this may actually be interesting. Moneyweeks Merryn somerset-webb is on the programme. A property bear and someone actually worth listening to. Could ITV possibly be airing a property programme that will be objective?
5. rich said...
Just watching this now... lets see. Arguments are ( marked + and - ):
+ There's lots of money coming into London (because of the city) which is driving up prices
- Rising interest rates will cause repossessions to bring down the market
- The supposed "demand" for housing is not a fixed value, because only a small proportion of people absolutely have to buy
+ Price dips are seen as a buying opportunity, and we'll look back at 2007 as a cheap time to buy (!!?!?!)
+ Independence of the BoE allows for more stable interest rates
Closing opinions from the panelists:
+ Don't overstretch, but you ought to be okay
+ Easy money is over, but it's not going to get cheaper
18 Month predictions:
+ 10%
- 10%
+ 7-8%
6. talking rot said...
I saw the programme too. Interestingly, most of the presenters were in favour of further house prices gains and their arguements matched the pre-Dot.com bust arguements why the stock market would never crash. Remember the "Wall of Money" theory. The exception was the utterly delightful Merryn Somerset-Webb whose convincing arguement had intellectual rigour and a logical basis. I thought she was being very brave by predicting falling prices by the end of 2007 - Keysian economic: The market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent. The UK house market has defied gravity far longer then top people can ever predict.
I especially liked the 2 twins who had 30-ish properties. They claims that had people held on to their house during teh last crash, those people would have made vast quantities of money. Urrrrrr. People do not choose to sell in a crash - they are forced to sell in a crash because they have no money and can't hold on to their house. That's why it is a crash guys!
7. bidin'matime said...
Two presentations from bulls and one from a bear, two of the 'judges' bulls / VIs and one a bear (probably only expressing a bearish view to try to give the appearance of balance) - hardly well balanced reporting.
Mind you, the twins (were they real people..?) admitted to making no money from letting 'when you take maintenance costs into consideration' - only from capital appreciation - they were hardly an advert for BTL, were they? I'd have liked to see a debate between Merryn and them, to expose the full shallowness of their business acumen.
As for the Savills guy, well he was just on another planet. I'd like to see him try and sell a flat in Leeds...
8. C'mon Correction said...
The show was based entirely on opinions and offered little reasoned debate on the near future of the UK housing market.
If anyone needed proof that the media is totally biased against the fact that house prices don't always go up, it was this programme. Like Bidin said two bulls v one bear ?!!! The UK is being totally brain-washed (by i.e. - TV programmes, newspapers, V.I. mortgage property reports, V.I. estate agent property reports, V.I. estate agents themselves ! etc, etc), meanwhile we're becoming the most indebted country in the world and our standard of living compared to other nations is plummetting, all because of this "house prices always going up is good". We should all take a step back and think about it, it is madness.
I really fear for the future of the UK.
9. doomwatch said...
The start of the "programme", the first "witness" seemed like an advert for Savills.
Poor old Merryn was weeled on as the lone Bear. She did us proud.
There was one bloke on the "panel" who seemed pretty bearish, but I suspect that was only because he'd had his fingers burnt with
some new build BTL flats.
As for chinless Phil, he knows the score, but was been very careful with his choice of words.
Overall, it will be interesting to see whose prediction is right in 18 months.