Thursday, Mar 22, 2007
More data to support a rate rise in April
SKY News: High street sales climb
High Street sales bounced back more than expected last month to rise at their fastest monthly rate in more than two years. Sales volumes climbed 1.4% in February - twice as much as predicted - and the strongest monthly rate since January 2005.
Posted by Webmaster @ 10:04 AM (143 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. royston said...
Is it me, or is the Office of National Statistics starting to sound like Comical Ali from the Iraq war?
2. holding out said...
My fault - I indulged in a new pair of shoes.
3. Shipbuilder said...
I've changed my mind in the past few days and believe the crash is off for 2007. After the revelations from Eddie George, it seems clear that the MPC's/Chancellor's/ONS aim/remit is to keep the boom happening for as long as possible - their obvious policy is interest rate cuts at the first sign of a slowdown.
Two factors will allow this - the BoJ and ECB will undoubtedly keep rates on hold for much of the rest of the year, and the Fed are due to cut rates very soon to try and stop the sub-prime meltdown.
Also, the ONS increasing the weighting of energy prices in the CPI just as energy prices peak is hardly a coincidence. Including computer games just when a raft of new consoles come out and the only way is down for prices? A day after the CPI changes were announced, Phoenix gas announced a 15% price cut. There will be an IR cut by the end of the year and we are looking at 2005 over again. The only thing that can change this is a ME war (unlikely, although i'm sure Iran is aware they could precipitate a global economic meltdown if they wanted) or a change in sentiment. I predict bullish mainstream news for the rest of the year. As I said before, the only thing people are scared of is losing their job or interest rate rises - if they think IRs have peaked, they will buy in droves, figuring some short term pain is worth it - 2005 again.
4. tyrellcorporation said...
I agree Shipbuilder. I've been a perma-bear for three years and all those who I tried to convince 'don't buy' two years ago, duly bought and have made at least £50k each. If the sub-prime thing withers away then I'm either going to buy or emigrate and buy.
I just don't see how we can win when the books are being fiddled to this extent.
the loss of bloggers like Uncle Tom and others just proves that bears have begun to give up over the last 2-3 years and have bought into the dream.
5. holding out said...
TC - It's lucky they didn't listen to you or you would be in trouble.
6. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
If the determination is to keep fiddling the figures, then that is tantamount to hiding an elephant. Psychology may play its part but ultimately we have a real problem and the comeuppance will be worse. If there is no crash this year, it may well be a good idea to emigrate (tyrell) before we can no longer afford to.
On the other hand, and this rings oddly true, maybe we/Gordon are just deceiving ourselves that times are good and in fact we are already going through a recession (and have been for years) and HPI is just reflecting real inflation and by the time this recession is over, Goron will continue claiming it never happened. If that is the case, those who bought did well because they protected the value of their cash and when inflation stabilises, house-prices will slow down but not crash.
The only discrepancy, then, would be between the official figures and the market assessment of inflation. A "soft landing" might only indicate that we are coming out of recession (or "stable, goldilocks growth" as the Gordster calls it).
With global liquidity drying up and debt poised to become a big deal, that would fit the German post-war model where people borrowed heavily during the inflation because they knew it would disappear and, as soon as things stabilised, credit dried up and repayments started weighing heavily on people.
There is an odd logic to this. It doesn't vindicate the bulls or the bears, but might just fit the evidence.
Any thoughts?
7. Popalot said...
Guys, don't be put off by a falsely upbeat budget, an 8-1 MPC vote which is part of a pact the have an 8-1 rise in April/May, and a temporary stifling of US bad news....The Sun has started talking of major HPC ahead... the events of the last few days are weak, temporary sticking plasters...
8. mrmickey said...
DHCW maybe your right and we've been in a recession since the 1970's, 50 years ago there were far less people working because they didn't have to one salary was enough to keep a family of four. It's an interesting way of looking at thinks which would explain why there may not be a crash were already in one.
9. Dugmug said...
You're a bear. You know that winter is coming so you should eat loads ready for hibernation. You start eating loads and telling your buddies to do the same, but they ignore you and just play games instead. As it happens, winter never really hits that year, or the year after for that matter, because of global warming, so you end up feeling fat and stupid and fed up with being laughed at by the other bears - why should you miss out when they're having fun? Consequently, you join them the next time around and just play games too. Problem with global warming though - yes it makes extremes of weather, but those extremes go both ways; the coldest winter on record suddenly hits and both you and your buddies die.
So take heart guys - all the money that has been sloshing around for the last few years has created a sort of global warming in the economy; of course things aren't predictable, but for sure they also aren't stable. Don't go thinking that the last few years of predictions being wrong means that it will be summer for ever more, that's what "the masses" do and so that creates these bubbles in the first place; sentiment can only keep things inflated for so long.
10. Speculatorone said...
Also, things change regarding interest rates day to day. Only yesterday the radio news kept bleating about rates being odds on for a rise next month? Plus no one expected the Jan rise did they.
As Shipbuilder says Gordon and Tony and all the other jokes are pulling the strings. When Gordon's poor fiscal rules f@#k up, what will be the first thing he says? Oh I know, its the tories fault!
11. inbreda said...
as a STR it worries me that the value of my money has already been eroded.
I guess investment in gold and currency trading is the way forward????
12. Whiteknight said...
The bovine excrement meter just exploded
13. harold said...
TC, you're in this for the long-haul. Chin up, and stop blathering - you know it's coming, just be patient.
14. sold 2 rent 1 said...
inbreda,
Gold and silver have made some of their recent losses back.
Can they keep going?
Can they not fall when stocks tumble again?
15. Thomas said...
House price will not crash, they just won't so many people are buying into them, david20040_0 was right the only hope is to emigrate.