Thursday, Mar 08, 2007
Guess what the BBC predicts will happen to rates today?
BBC "News": UK rates tipped to stay on hold
I suppose if rates go up they'll change this link to "SHOCK UNEXPECTED RATE RISE", and do their best to sound indignant. Talk about shilling the news.
Posted by paul @ 08:12 AM (156 views) Add Comment
23 Comments
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1. george monsoon said...
Who knows what will happen at lunchtime today?.. Whatever happens, I bet this one is a close call.
2. waitingfor hpc said...
and i thought the gunners would win last night 2-0. Still would not shout about it in the pub last night - and a good thing too!
3. bidin'matime said...
Recent stock market volatilty, downturn in inflation figures (note 'figures'..) - my guess is 'Hold'. A rise would be like Christmas back again..!
4. sovietuk said...
The sooner the BBC was dumped in the nearest skip, the better.
5. sovietuk said...
Got my council tax for the next year in the post last night and am absolutely fuming today. Another increase which is double the rate of the dodgy "official stastics". This tax has now nearly doubled in the last 10 years. Really angry today.
6. harold said...
IMHO - hold.
zzzzz.....
7. Rickyb said...
Whatever the decision today, the likely direction of interest rates over the next few months is fairly clear given the BofE governor's remark last month.
"Once we decide it's necessary to raise interest rates, that's what we'll do."
8. paul said...
If they do hold, I think it'll be an inexcusable bung to the housing market, and will be interpreted (correctly or incorrectly) as such.
The danger is that if this is even suspected, the sentiment in the currency market will be "while houe prices are stagnant the BofE won't raise rates regardless of inflation threats". This would be the wrong signal, and would result in a steady (or possibly rapid) sell-off of sterling sending its vaule tumbling.
For sure it is crunch time (as it was always going to be at some point) where the Bank has to choose between the value of their personal property portfolios and the health of the economy/value of the pound.
9. paul said...
I fear they will keep them on hold, but I predict a rise.
10. Davros said...
I reckon it's all over as far as the housing boom is concerned.
Half my street have gone up for sale in the last month, so sellers obviously think this is the peak. The papers are full of stories of potential downturns and future interest rate rises.
11. Sam said...
me, i predict....
Watching the people get lairy
Is not very pretty I tell thee
Walking through town is quite scary
And not very sensible either
A friend of a friend he got beaten
He looked the wrong way at a policeman
Would never have happened to Smeaton
And old Leodiensian
La-ah-ah, la la lalala la
Ah-ah-ah, la la lalala la
I predict a riot, I predict a riot
I predict a riot, I predict a riot
I tried to get in my taxi
A man in a tracksuit attacked me
He said that he saw it before me
Wants to get things a bit gory
Girls run around with no clothes on
To borrow a pound for a condom
If it wasn't for chip fat, well they'd be frozen
They're not very sensible
La-ah-ah, la la lalala la
Ah-ah-ah, la la lalala la
I predict a riot, I predict a riot
I predict a riot, I predict a riot
And if there's anybody left in here
That doesn't want to be out there
Watching the people get lairy
Is not very pretty I tell thee
Walking through town is quite scary
And not very sensible
La-ah-ah, la la lalala la
Ah-ah-ah, la la lalala la
I predict a riot, I predict a riot
I predict a riot, I predict a riot
And if there's anybody left in here
That doesn't want to be out there
I predict a riot, I predict a riot
I predict a riot, I predict a riot
I'd like to see a raise, but doubt will get it. may even drop it by .25%.
12. C'mon Correction said...
Depending on the inflation figure for Feb, I think they will hold. New Labour's ONS will fraudulently lower CPI for the next few months - til GB gets in. Am I right in thinking M4 money supply is still running really high and yet has little effect on inflation??
Interest rates are still artificially low, but we have one of the most dovish central banks in the world.
13. tyrellcorporation said...
I think their remit is now to keep the IR at between 2.5% and 3.0% and to sod the target of 2.0%. That is the perfect position for them. If they were serious about getting it to target we'd have rates of 6.0%.
14. tyrellcorporation said...
I predict 'Hold'.
15. rich said...
>> tyrellcorporation said...
>> I think their remit is now to keep the IR at between 2.5% and 3.0% and to sod the target of 2.0%. That
>> is the perfect position for them. If they were serious about getting it to target we'd have rates of 6.0%.
Sure, although they wont want to risk oversteer.
My instinct would be to guess "hold" but only because everyone else is. In reality I don't have a clue.
16. Rep013 said...
I raise will be in place.
The more I read the more I think they need to raise and waiting could be more dangerous ... but then I'm no economist.
I put elsewhere + 0.25 in hope, I now think this will happen. Neck on the line please cut gently!
17. Steve said...
Hold, no way they will rise. The BoE hasn't the balls.
18. harold said...
Currency markets looking as though they might be sniffing a rise... just a thought.
19. paul said...
Hmmm. Absolutely harold.
Currency markets won't let the MPC off easily with a hold on rates - it will signal the end to the rate rise run, and an about-turn on pre-emptive inflation targeting. The Bank doesn't want to spook the market into selling off sterling. We're just as debt leveraged as the US and look what's happened to their currency.
The bank has two remits - maintain the credibility of the pound and control inflation. It's on their website.
(I never thought the day would come when I'd be biting my nails about interest rate rises. I feel prematurely aged.)
20. george monsoon said...
There are many conflicting issues to take into account... All eyes at the Exchange will be on the BoE this morning, and the government know this. Risk of inflation and a run on the pound if they don't raise them.
But there is also political pressure to maintain the status quo in the shadow of a landmark budget just around the corner. i.e. Gordons last one as Chancelor.
hmm.. This is turning into a very interesting day.
I am starting to lean towards the "no change" camp. My advice is sell your stock now, before lunch!!
21. harold said...
"My advice is sell your stock now, before lunch!!"
George, no change will send stocks up as the free-lunch in cheap credit will continue.
22. george monsoon said...
What about the value of the pound? won't that take a knock if we leave interest rates static?
23. paul said...
And it's a hold.
I hope the currency market punishes them for this.
The MPC agenda is now stinkingly obvious - protect the housing market at all costs. I'll bet Mervyn was outvoted this time too.