Thursday, Mar 29, 2007
France joins Ireland with falling prices
The Telegraph: French housing bubble set to burst
The french property market is much less overheated than most other EU countries.
The ratio of household debt to disposable income in France is a modest 65pc, compared with 115pc in Spain, 146pc in Britain, 171pc in Holland, and 190pc in Ireland.
The markets are pricing in another euro IR rise in June
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:07 AM (209 views) Add Comment
9 Comments
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1. David20040_0 said...
Mr Six said France was vulnerable to an emerging glut of houses after record contruction of 420,000 new homes last year.
The French are building themselves out of the problem, last time I checked the UK only built around 150k houses last year.
Both the US and France are able to build themselves out of the problem, we are not.
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
David20040,
You said "Both the US and France are able to build themselves out of the problem, we are not."
I am not sure what you mean.
Just exactly how are the US and France "out of the problem".
Surely house prices will crash now that there is an oversupply in those countries.
In the UK demand outstrips supply but in many city centres there is an oversupply of flats building up.
The big difference between the UK and many other larger counties that have more space to build is it will be a recession that causes the HPC in the UK. In countries like US, France, Spain and Portugal the HPC will come first and cause the recession.
In the UK, once a recession starts, many of the new immigrants will leave for jobs in other counties. We will also see an increase in the number of older people retiring earlier by selling up and moving to cheaper countries around the world. There are so many people who cannot afford to retire in this country.
Starting from when the stock markets and house prices start tumbling around the world, London is going to be hit especially hard. There are so many young people who have moved to London and are raking in big salaries and sitting on piles on cash made from their properties. Once the big salaries dry up and the houses go down by 5-10% these people will up sticks and return to where they came from. Even the native Londoners will choose to raise their families away from the capital.
London will be the new “Hong Kong” - a boom and bust city.
When the crash starts in 2008 it is going to be huge.
3. Davros said...
Yes, what do you mean?
There are exact parallels between France and here. Don't you recognise the similarities, single digit house price growth, rising interest rates. It's the same story, but the timing is earlier.
4. Davros said...
By the way, if supply is the only issue, then why have house prices risen 200% in 10 years in France, or the US? Global lack of supply, or a global speculative property bubble? I believe the answer is the second one.
5. Taffee said...
supply/demand a myth......there are 635,000 empty proprties in the UK,many people own 5 or 6 properties which they don't need.
supply/demand is the result of bubble mentality.
Also countries that have high immigration and growing population doesn't necessarily equal high prices.Look at india/pakistan/japan
6. geed said...
Explain youself David. I am very much in favour of alternative stance on this forum but you are increasingly looking like an idiot. What is it about the fact that currently the US has 546,000 houses unsold that you dont quite get????? Build themselves out of what a HOUSING GLUT?
See this earlier post in which you did not reply...
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/03/blog-will-supply-and-demand-dynamic-turn-on-buy-to-letters-3273.php
Back your arguments up with fact.
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