Thursday, Jan 11, 2007
rates up 0.25%, official press release from BOE
Firstrung: Bank of England surprises analysts by raising rates by 0.25 points to 5.25%
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.25%. In the United Kingdom, output continues to rise at a firm pace. Domestic demand has grown steadily and credit and broad money growth remain rapid. The international economy continues to grow strongly.
Posted by converted lurker @ 12:18 PM (143 views) Add Comment
36 Comments
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1. tyrellcorporation said...
No real surprise but yet more egg on the faces of the economics team at the BBC.
2. Londonernow said...
ouch!
3. doomwatch said...
THIS WAS A SURPRISE - ALL 52 BOE WATCHERS POLLED BY BLOOMBERG WERE CALLING NO CHANGE TODAY
4. Anonymous said...
Ouch
5. tyrellcorporation said...
Word is that MPC have access to new data pointing to a potential breach of 3.0% CPI!!! Oh dear!
6. sold 2 rent 1 said...
2 out of the last 3 rate rises have been surprises
How many more surprises will we be in store for.
IR are still well below their long term average
7. Surfgatinho said...
**** me! They must be worried!
8. sold 2 rent 1 said...
From the BBC
"If part of the intention was to dampen wage increases, it is doubtful a rate rise will have the desired effect," said Ian McCafferty, the CBI's chief economic adviser.
9. C'mon Correction said...
I really do think we will see another two .25 hikes this year. Inflation is out of control, except to see it breach the limit this month or next.
This stems back to that .25 cut Nov 05; and since then too much in-action.
There is far too much money sloshing around out there. I hope Blanchflower sits up and listens now!?!
10. paul said...
It'll be the CPI breaching 3.0%, if you're getting that from somewhere reliable, tyrell.
Can I be the first to suggest summary execution of the MPC members tomorrow at dawn?
11. doomwatch said...
Wouldn't want to be one of those poor b'stards coming off a cosy sub 4% fixed rate any thime soon.
12. tyrellcorporation said...
I haven't got 100% info on that but I've been reading around and that is the substancial rumour. As I said a few days ago though the last jump in CPI was .3% and there's nothing to suggest that jump won't be repeated.
13. tyrellcorporation said...
Doom, LOL, you're right, don't most of them ping to about a 7% rate? OUCH!
14. autopilotengage said...
Oh dear, seems the bank aren't as predictable as everyone would like and permenantly low interest rates are not here to stay. Conversely, we are now at the same rate as the US$, so will be intesting to see what happens next, been a lot of hawkish talk from the Fed as well. Word is, BOJ looks likely to move this month as well, then things will get interesting.
15. tyrellcorporation said...
The UK is rapidly becomming a twin track economy which will exacerbate the rich/poor divide even further. Reposessions will increase dramtically this year but the people on good salaries and property porfolios will be queueing up to buy the houses at knock down prices.
I doubt rates will drop much, if at all, this year because a significant majority are still doing well and still spending. People at the bottom end of the salary spectrum are going to be finished though. They will still vote Labour though...
16. Rimmer said...
I am sticking with my 8% by 2008 prediction.
17. David20040_0 said...
I actually can't believe it.
18. Rimmer said...
tyrellcorporation
Not so sure they will keep voting Labour as the feel Good days are over, problem is a real alternative, the hoody hugging guy in the blue corner has little real hope lets be honest - would you vote for him.
I predict a new force will come to power might be a few years off but its there in the background and its not the social democrats
19. sovietuk said...
I wonder what will happen with public sector pay rises, with the MPC now acknowledging that things are getting out of control. A Labour government, a disgruntled public sector and interest rates going up. A mouthwatering cocktail.
20. talking rot said...
Inflation within the UK is building up. As we import so much, if Stirling falls, things will become more expensive. How likely is it that Stirling will fall. See next post.
Let me think. All those people who took out 2 or 3 year fix rate deals in 2005 will be coming out of them this year. Combine a few more tax rises (which will have a tinge of green to make them politically acceptable)and higher utility bills with inflation-driven interest rate hikes and the Consumer will cut back on spending. Unless interest rates reach 8% or higher, I will be surprised if a crash occurs. The combination of factors (interest rate rises, higher taxes, higher bills) will slow the engine of the economy. Consumers can't consume if their cash is being spent on other things. As the economy falters, things will become interesting on the housing side.
I suspect those BTL-ers who are in it for the long term will extract equity from their portfolios to purchase house sold as a result of repossession. This may keep the house market higher but only if rents rise to cover the costs of a more expensive mortgage. Incidentally, in this country, what happens to a tennant who can't pay their rent?
21. Little Professor said...
This is a real shock, all the economists were predicting no change this month. Just another sign that inflation really is getting out of control. This is the third rise in 4 months. Definitely 6% by year-end.
BBC:
"The timing is a surprise," said Ross Walker, UK economist with the Royal Bank of Scotland.
"What this perhaps tells us is that we have a nasty inflation number coming next week and they wanted to act pre-emptively."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6251963.stm
22. Sam said...
oh, words from the one guy who said they'd increase rates.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/01/11/1772/the-one-that-got-it-right/
23. Scumbag said...
"This may keep the house market higher but only if rents rise to cover the costs of a more expensive mortgage"
If rents rise then so does inflation and so does interest rates and so the spiral goes on.
24. harold said...
But I thought 49 out of 50 economists were predicting NO CHANGE. How are the mighty fallen?
25. Maggot said...
if my memory serves me right we went into last year with everyone telling us that there would be a 1/4 percent cut in march to boost manafacturing.well what happened is now history.it appears to a novice like me that markets and therefore house prices are difficult to call as they are part of a dynamic system which is getting larger with glonbalisation.but no matter how big the market they seem too folow trends and the trend at the moment is definitley down.so where intrest rates are at the end of the year does seem an impossibile question to answer .down yes but how down:??
i am glad that mervyn king is getting his intrest rate rises in ahead of gordo brown,s poll tax rises in march
26. Davros said...
> Reposessions will increase dramtically this year but the people on good salaries and property porfolios will be queueing up to buy the houses at knock down prices.
I don't see it. If prices are falling, who's going to want to buy a house? Buy to let doesn't pay already, so take away the capital gains and what have you got?
This is all just part of the cycle. These things are always symmetric, so why should it be any different this time?
27. disciple said...
Rot
Just remember that the £ is over priced already 1.95. Which 2x dollar. So a fall of 20% will only be 1.56. This is pretty much the normal value of £. So in other words not a big deal. £ droped to 1.4 in 2000 and has been climbing since 2002/3. So the £ has strengthened a great deal over the last 4 years. The only reason this would have happened is beacuse people are moving their money out of the $, I guess lack of confidence. After all, theres only so many big currency pairs to go with! Where do the likes of China Japan and Arab nations stick their money? Euro, $ ,£? Maybe gold? My point here is that there are other factors to consider other than the fundamentals. I certainly wouldnt stick my money in $, Euro or £, but gold. £ is also a proven currency, unlike the Euro. I think the Euro is destined to die.
28. Boarder said...
Disciple,
Swiss Francs?
29. Adam said...
The real shock will be the first 0.5% rise...
30. Enuii said...
Whats Crash Gordons opinion on this, and the impending downward economic outlook as he's remarkably quiet on the subject. I wonder who he will blame when he moves his tenancy from No11 to No10.
31. C'mon Correction said...
Maggot - you thinking interest rates will go down by the end of the year? On what reasoning? I think there is so much hidden inflation around at the minute that it will continue to be a major problem for years to come. Sure it'll fluctuate up and down month to month but over the years will be high. It's good odds we'll see 6% within 18 months, unless something big happens...
The only thing that can bring inflation down medium-term is a house price crash (so wage pressures from the younger generations are subdued) or interest rates up over 6% (i.e. leading to a house price crash !). Immigration has had it's effect, now with rising unemployment it will be less so. There isn't a shortage in housing, some parts of the country maybe, but there is plenty in other parts and lots of developments going on.
The government and all the market 'experts' don't give enough credit to the fact that all the new workforce (sub 30 year olds) won't stand for a huge imbalance in their standard of living compared to their immediate elders for much longer. 6 to 10 x their wage mortgages aren't unsustainable - full stop.
32. Such_short_memories said...
The BBC graph of IRs for the past 4 years just doesn't look right to me. Looking at the period covering Aug 06 to present, the movements look as if the current rate increases are on a decelerating trend. The gap between the Aug and Nov rises is much smaller than that between the Nov and Jan rises.
Considering that we have now seen RISE, HOLD, HOLD, RISE, HOLD, RISE since August 06, the rate of increase of the rate of interest can actually be seen to be accelerating. I feel that at best this is just more BBC incompetance, but at worst another way of their attempts to 'get into our minds'.
Who knows, maybe we'll see another 1/4 point rise in Feb and then a 1/2 pointer in March to continue the increase in the rate of increases!
33. paul said...
I'm hearing more and more about CPI being over 3%.
Could this be the fiscal lag from the spending boom from spiraling house prices two years ago?
34. geed said...
Just goes to show, if 49 professional economists point blank get it wrong, who are they to tell us there will/wont be a house price crash when they cant even predict where interest rates will go.
Its great analysing all the trends and predictions we come up with on the site, but we have know idea what the future hold in the housing market....it could continue to go up or it may come down, make your own choice and dont listen to these overpaid prats.
35. sirgoogle said...
Just As I said Yesterday !
36. talking rot said...
Disciple
Thanks for the pearls. I, too, believe the Euro is destined to die. So it looks like gold then.
Cheers
Rot