Kitco: Housing Bubble, Recession, and That 70’s Show

This past January, I wrote an article titled “Real Estate Burst, Upcoming Recession, and Soaring Commodity Prices”. At the time of the article, most people thought that a recession prediction was outrageous and that a burst in the real estate market was hopelessly pessimistic. Since then, we have seen clear signs of an upcoming recession as well as a slowdown in housing that is only set to accelerate.

BBC News: Pakistan springs shock rate rise

The State Bank of Pakistan said that its main borrowing cost will rise to 9.5% from 9% on Monday

Firstrung: First time buyers the week in focus - 23/07/06 - 30/07/06

There has been definite patterns emerging in the various press releases the Firstrung team received this week and how property news has been reported in the mainstream sources. First time buyers, shared ownership, increasing questions on the viability of the 'buy to let movement', blaming the government for somehow forcing builders (against their better judgement) to build two bedroom boxes...it's all made for a fascinating and news worthy week.

L.A. Times: Spending Less? You're Helping Slow the Economy

The cooling housing market does present a risk, and may be undercutting overall consumer spending as fewer people count on rising home equity to finance trips to the mall. Consumer spending grew by only 2.5% in the second quarter, down from 4.8% in the first quarter, mostly reflecting declining purchases of big-ticket items such as autos, according to the Commerce Department report Friday. "People were selling part of their house to finance dinner at Olive Garden," said Dirk van Dijk, director of research at Chicago-based Zacks Investment Research. "You can play that game as long as the price of housing is going up. You take that away and it becomes a scary proposition."

National Post: U.S. Home Prices in Peril

House prices are set to drop in the US for the first time on record, US investment bank Goldman Sachs warned this weekend. Prices in several segments of the market have already started to fall, and the overall market will move into the red even in nominal terms next year, fuelling fears that this will trigger a downturn in consumer spending and hit an already slowing US economy.

Posted by little professor @ 11:32 AM 7 Comments

Times Online: Inflation is low ... but only on the Chav Price Index

It's one of the conundrums of new Labour: why in this “historic” era of low inflation are prices rising so quickly? Now the government’s own figures suggest it might be because Gordon Brown’s typical “shopping basket” used to assess the cost of living is chock-full of bargain items.

Guardian: High-risk lenders target vulnerable

'I would never buy again,' says Shelley. 'I only wanted to be able to leave something for the children, but this has ruined our lives. We will never pay off these debts.'

Money Week: The five major trends reshaping the world economy

A good weekend read. Bonner identifies 5 world economic trends that will make the future very uncomfortable for many.

SKY News: Summer Credit Card Spree

People are likely to be reaching for their credit cards this summer, predicting they will spend 35% more on their plastic than last year, research has claimed. Consumers think they will put an average of £1,136 on their cards between July and September.

Firstrung: Trapped first time buyers on

The producers of Tonight with Trevor Mcdonald have contaced Firstrung to ask for our input and that of our readership on a programme to be aired in September. They're developing content for the show looking at the phenomena of generations living under the same roof for ITV1's leading current affairs programme.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:28 AM 8 Comments

Firstrung: Latest on the Newport second home protest

The protestors wondered if they had made a difference as holiday home buyers were not there. One holiday home buyer reputed to be interested did not bid. People attending the auction said they thought the publicity about the protest could have put off the second home buyers. Everyone was happy to see a Welsh family with young children move into the small-holding.

Guardian Unlimited: Card limits 'to cut overspenders'

MBNA is changing its terms and conditions so that it can now refuse to authorise a transaction if it thinks a customer is "spending beyond their means", even if they have not exceeded their credit limit. Barclaycard, is introducing a similar new clause.

BBC News: House repossessions in NI rising

In the last year there were 2,600 cases of lenders seizing back property - an increase of 60% from five years ago. Ursula Toner from the Housing Rights Service said much of it is due to people borrowing against their homes to pay off other debts.

BBC News: House price woe for 'key workers'

Public sector workers such as police, teachers, nurses and firemen cannot afford to buy property in two-thirds of UK towns, the Halifax bank has said.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:47 AM 8 Comments

BBC: House repossessions in NI rising

There has been a steep rise in house repossessions in Northern Ireland, according to the latest figures. In the last year there were 2,600 cases of lenders seizing back property - an increase of 60% from five years ago. Ursula Toner from the Housing Rights Service said much of it is due to people borrowing against their homes to pay off other debts..........

Daily Telegraph: Don't believe Labour: inflation is back

Of all the lies New Labour has told, the one for which it will pay the highest price is its claim that it has buried inflation............ Now, however, they must be worried. For the myth that inflation is dead is being exposed. Hardly a day goes by without some price rise or other.........For more than a decade, we have been dozing like lions, lolling luxuriously in the sun. But Britain is now so indebted that even the tiniest rise in interest rates to combat inflation will wake us up with a fright. The City is forecasting that it could come as soon as next month............In the circumstances, isn't it about time that the Conservatives opposed the Chancellor, instead of quivering in his shadow?

Posted by gay gordon @ 07:46 PM 6 Comments

Financial Times: Vehicles set to queue for property schemes

Under the final version of the Finance Bill, which was passed last week, investors can get exposure to residential property through their self-invested personal pensions (Sipps) as long as it is through a so-called “genuinely diverse” investment vehicle. These schemes have to fit certain criteria: they must have at least 10 investors and own at least three different properties worth a minimum of £1m in total.

BBC website: Brakes slam on US Growth

Consumer slowdown. Funny that. IRs may not be increased. ANd HPs will continue to tumble I guess - just a guess, mind.

Telegraph: Personal insolvencies prompt A&L to rein in lending

A&L is now accepting a "lower level of new business" to ensure "high credit quality standards" are maintained.

Posted by denzil @ 01:53 PM 13 Comments

Telegraph: Britons feel poorer because they are poorer

The amount of money we can spend as we choose has fallen 10% in the last 5 years so if you are feeling poorer then you most likely are.

Reuters: Rising growth warrant rate rise -NIESR

The economy is picking up faster than expected and with inflation likely to remain above target for some years, the Bank of England should raise rates sooner rather than later, a think-tank said on Friday.

Firstrung: UK house prices, signs of a slowdown emerging - Hometrack

The survey also shows how the extent of house price rises across the country has declined over the last month, reversing the upward trend of the last nine months. In June agents reported monthly price rises across 42% of the country, whilst in July this fell back to 31% - see chart 2, page 3. Stripping out the impact of London and the South East the Hometrack survey shows that prices rose across just 19% of the remainder of country in July.

Telegraph online: US housing market 'going bust'

The quantity of unsold housing is at record levels in the US with sales falling creating fears that the US housing market is entering a bust.

BBC News: Citizen reporter: Property as a pension

He investigates how much he needs to enjoy a comfortable old age - and whether property investment can help him achieve his ambitions.

Firstrung: Graduates suffer years of first time buyer delays due to debts

Thomas Charles survey of 1000 graduates reveals the major negative impact of unsecured debt on property ownership. The survey suggests that the current levels of unsecured debt amongst graduates is having a major impact on the property market with fewer graduates being able to afford to buy a property and having to postpone getting on the property ladder by several years...

Firstrung: Moneyfacts warns of house price crash and issues house price bubble philosophy

Moneyfacts issues its seven tablets of wisdom on house price booms and busts...

Guardian: Bank under pressure to increase interest rates

\"...approvals for house purchases in June - a rise of almost 22%...\"\r\n\r\nblimey. If they don't raise rates this month, my prediction is that they will next month. No later.

Posted by inbreda @ 09:12 AM 11 Comments

guardian: Royal Mail pay deal averts national strike

Another fine reason for the BoE to ... ignore.

MSN: Could the Middle East crisis spell economic disaster?

For the global economy this latest conflict, like so many before, is not about what has happened but what might happen. Neither Lebanon, nor Israel for that matter, produces significant amounts of oil. If Syria, a small producer, or more particularly Iran, a huge one, are drawn into conflict then oil supplies may be at risk. This matters particularly now because there is almost no spare capacity in the world oil supply system. Even a small cut in output could have a big effect on oil prices.

AFP: Glut of unsold new homes across US hits record

The glut of brand new unsold homes for sale across the US hit a record high in June, a government report showed today, as some economists warned of a worsening market in coming months.

Real Estate Enthusiast: Real Estate Enthusiast

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has sternly criticised the UK Government’s decision to scrap the Home Condition Report (HCR) from Home Information Packs (HIPs). They claim that the Government failed to allow sufficient time to iron out the problem of training adequate numbers of Home Inspectors - an issue the RICS identified over a year ago. "If the Government had worked together with industry, as suggested, a workable solution would have been possible" the influential body stated in a press release. RICS research into the effect of HIPs on the UK housing market suggests the Government’s decision leans towards the low-regulatory model used in Australia where their version of the Home Information Packs are compulsory, but the HCR equivalent is not. The Australian model is a low cost approach to simplify the home buying process, and when introduced back in June 1988 had no effect on housing market activity.

Telegraph website: Are the cracks showing of home loans?

With experts worried about rising debt, one 'sub-prime' mortgage lender has a third of its borrowers in arrears, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

BBC: Chinese economy 'could overheat'

China's economic growth is red-hot. China's premier has called for urgent steps to prevent economic overheating, expressing concerns that runaway growth could precipitate a crisis.

BBC News: Debt woe blamed on rising bills

Consumer spending is being choked by rising fuel costs. To a rational observer, this would mean a rate rise is needed. Our esteemed and hard-working MPC no doubt see things differently and (peversely) would see this as supporting the case for a cut!

Posted by paul @ 12:24 PM 8 Comments

Reuters: Sterling holds near highs as rate rise talk mounts

Sterling held near the previous week's one-month highs against the euro after a run of strong economic data rekindled expectations for a hike in UK interest rates perhaps as soon as next month.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:34 AM 21 Comments

Firstrung: Evictions, not everyone gets to meet Davina

As the Big Brother housemates faced eviction "crunch time" last week, Shelter launched a national press advertising campaign to highlight that for the 135,000 households who face the threat of homelessness in real-life, eviction is no gameshow.

Firstrung: Mortgage approvals up a massive 22 percent in a year -BBA

Whilst we can easily break these figures down into; re-mortgages, secured lending and new approvals the fact remains that, according to the BBA, mortgage approvals are up a massive 22 percent in comparison with June 2005....

TimesOnline: Northern Rock's bad debt charges double to £44.5m

Northern Rock played down a large increase in bad debt charges by announcing a large 22% rise in mortgage lending over the last year. The company also announced that it was working with Lehman Brothers to enter the "near and sub-prime" mortgage market which is aimed at "riskier" borrowers.

BBC News: British Gas raises energy prices

British Gas owner Centrica has said it plans to raise gas bills by 12.4% for its 10.7 million customers. The firm's 5.8 million electricity customers will also face a 9.4% increase in their bills from September.

Timesonline: Worried about the day of reckoning? Calm down – it has passed already

Why am I so optimistic? There are two broad reasons. First, the long-term structural underpinnings of the British economic miracle that began in the mid-1990s are still mostly in place. And while everyone recognises some of these structural advantages — the deregulation and privatisation of the Thatcher period and the monetary policy framework created by Mr Brown — the most important one is still not fully appreciated by the business community, the media and the financial markets. This underappreciated strength is Britain’s comparative advantage in finance and business services

Posted by jake the muss @ 08:10 AM 14 Comments

Independent online: Would a US housing crash impact here?

It is the little signs that give you an early warning that something important may be happening. In this case it is the matter of US house prices, for, as here in the UK and in some other markets, it has been a housing boom that has helped support consumption growth. Now, it seems, the boom is over.

BBC News: Rightmove halts house pack cash

Property website Rightmove has pulled the plug on £22m of investment in Home Information Packs (Hips). The move was prompted by a government decision to make home condition reports - a key element of Hips - voluntary, rather than compulsory. Last week, Rightmove shares slumped after it warned earnings from Hips were likely to be "significantly lower" as a result of the decision.

Firstrung: Are builders now desperately pinning their hopes on 'shared ownership'?

Wolsey blame the government for forcing builders to think small, smartnewhomes criticises the government for forcing their clients to build small. Given that it's all the govt's fault (obviously) how keen will they be to now help councils buy up the excess stock to protect builders profits?

SKY News: No Frowns Over Debts

Most people feel comfortable with the amount of debt they have taken on. And only a fifth expect their borrowings to increase further, says credit monitoring service CreditExpert. Around 76% of consumers said they were comfortable with their debts, 1% more than in January this year, the company said.

Posted by webmaster @ 12:32 PM 8 Comments

The Business News Source: English newspaper pushes up house prices

"In spite of all the evidence to the contrary, it (Daily Express) leads with following comment – ‘Record property prices are set to soar for at least 10 years in a massive boost for home owners’. Because we believe that it is articles like this that are contribute to the Housing Bubble, way after proper analysis indicates that ‘the party’s over’. In particular it cites ‘experts’ without reference and then goes on to ask Estate Agents (realtors) for their view – a bit like asking a Butcher if meat is good for you......"

Posted by waiting patiently @ 12:16 PM 7 Comments

BBC News: Woolworths sales see hard times

Retailer Woolworths has seen like-for-like sales decline by 7.7% in the first half of this year, hit by a "challenging" retail environment.

Times Online: Northern Rock cautious on house prices

Northern Rock, one of the more lax mortgage lenders, today added its voice to predictions that the mini-boom in property prices will peter out. With more than 14 per cent of the UK mortgage market, NR argued that over the medium term house prices are likely to grow at the same rate as wages.

Firstrung: Average size of a new home is now below 1000 sq. ft., it's all the government's fault, apparently...

The size of the average new home is shrinking as the Government puts pressure on builders to produce high density developments, figures showed today. The average plot size for a new property has shrunk to 973 square feet from 988 square feet during the past 12 months, according to building finance group Wolsey Securities.

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:18 AM 7 Comments

Ethical Consumer Magazine: Are buy-to-lets unethical?

Great article from Ethical Consumer Magazine published on the web for the first time by PricedOut.org.uk.

"What are the real costs of the recent trend for buy-to-let investments? Are they as ethically neutral as most people assume them to be? Simon Birch investigates."

Posted by pricedout.org.uk @ 11:39 AM 23 Comments

BBC News: India hikes interest rates again

India has increased its short-term interest rate for the third time in four months in a bid to curb inflation. The country's central bank raised the rate by 0.25% to 6%, amid fears that strong global oil prices threatened financial stability.

TimesOnline: Head of CBI warns Bank to stay its hand on interest rates

Richard Lambert former member of the monetary policy committee (MPC) called for the Bank of England to hold back on any interest rate increases. His argument is based on his belief that strong high-street spending will lose momentum. Lambert stated that an increase to interest rates would inflict a bigger blow than normal to economic activety. “A reason we think it would be sensible to sit and do nothing now is that consumption is at a delicate stage, and it would be possible to have greater than normal consequences if people think this is the start of a change,” Lambert said

Posted by denzil @ 09:10 AM 13 Comments

Firstrung: There\'s a bloke works down our chip shop swears he\'s Elvis..

Record property prices are set to soar for at least 10 years in a massive boost for home owners. They will see the value of their property increase by around £20,000 every year, pushing the average home to almost £400,000 by 2016, experts predicted last night.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:00 AM 13 Comments

BBC News: Energy prices rise at EDF Energy

EDF Energy is to raise the price of gas and electricity for its five million customers, as it has been affected by rising wholesale energy costs.

Telegraph Money Online: Fact and fiction about inflation

Roger Bootle explores the relationship between actual and perceived inflation - and suggests why real inflation is actually low. He concludes that the Fed and the BoE are relaxed about current inflation but this state of mind will quickly turn to panic should inflation rise further. This article is worth a read as it projects an alternative view while containing some intellectual rigor.

Firstrung: Graduate job search not meeting expectations

According to research by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), a third of university graduates are in jobs that do not need a degree. Many are; stacking shelves, washing dishes, or working in bars. The agency said 34.4% of UK students who finished their first degrees in 2004-05 and went into full-time jobs were in "non-graduate" work.

Independent: New hotspots on the radar of househunters

From Turkey to South Africa to Cape Verde, British buyers are broadening their horizons...

Posted by miniftse @ 02:37 PM 6 Comments

Firstrung: Cobblers to estate agents, the infestation that will surely disappear

Great article from John Stepek@moneyweek "Invasion of the Estate Agents," screamed a Sunday Times headline last week. Instantly, I had a vision of our green and pleasant land overrun by phalanxes of overly-aggressive 19-year-olds with perma-tans, pastel shirts and fist-sized knots in their ties. They marched along, staring fixedly ahead, bellowing their masters' mantra: "Property prices can only go up."

BBC News: UK total assets worth £6 trillion

UK assets were worth £6 trillion at the end of 2005, with property accounting for most of that wealth, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said. The Halifax has been keen to play down the threat of a housing crash, pointing to the UK's steady economic growth and interest rates.

Guardian: Tory thinktank calls for annual levy on residential property

Why do i get nervous when politicians start thinking? In some ways these ideas seem socially beneficial (proving further still that Labour are tory, and tory are labour??), but I can think of problems with a flat residential tax - more people buying cheaper FTB homes for one.

Scotsman: Alarm over debt burden as house prices continue to rise

Britannia Building Society is just one of a number of lenders starting to have concerns about how some of its mortgage holders intend to repay their loans. As house prices have risen, an increasing number of borrowers have opted for interest-only loans as a way to keep their monthly repayments affordable.

Independent Online: Plastic is a girl's best friend: The motto of a generation in debt

Young women are running up record levels of debt, chasing a celebrity lifestyle they can't afford. Women between 21 and 25 have an average £3,830 in credit-card debts and most never save. More than half still live with their parents, and 65% dismiss the idea of a pension as a joke. Said one women in debt "I'm just the same as everybody else my age. We're all trying to get ourselves out of debt but none of us is prepared to sacrifice our lifestyles for it."

Sydney Morning Herald: Rate rises to cripple industry, hit growth

Two more interest rate increases will send the already weak NSW home building market to deeper lows and constrain economic growth this financial year, a forecaster says.

Firstrung: Graduates have a one in ten chance of becoming first time buyers

Only one in 10 people who have left university since 2001 currently own their own home, with 58% saying they have been unable to purchase somewhere because of their debts, according to debt consultancy Thomas Charles.

Telegraph: Britain told to shake off its mindset of graceful decline

Britain's economic boom over the past seven years is sputtering out as consumers reach the limits of debt and UK manufacturers face a relentless slide in global market share, according to the latest Item Club report of Ernst & Young. Professor Peter Spencer, the group's chief economic adviser, said Britain had failed dismally to break into the fast-growing markets of China and developing Asia. "UK manufacturers seem to be locked into a vicious circle of low profitability, low investment and lack of cost control," he said.

BBC News: UK rates 'could remain at 4.5%'

The Bank of England has enough room to manoeuvre to allow interest rates to stay at 4.5%, a forecasting group says. Rising oil and commodity prices will slow growth, allowing the Bank enough slack in the economy to leave rates on hold, the Ernst & Young Item Club said. Consumers and the government will also put the brakes on growth as they cut back after years of heavy spending. The group also expects inflation to slip below government targets of 2% and so negate the need to raise rates.

Posted by jason @ 06:51 AM 14 Comments

Telegraph: Fact and fiction about inflation

Inflation is on the up. It has risen to 4.3 per cent in the US and 2.5 per cent in the UK. Moreover, if recent elevated energy prices are sustained, inflation could easily rise a good deal further. I have written before on the reasons why I do not believe that recent developments presage an inflationary upsurge. But for many people this will provide scant comfort because they do not believe the figures anyway. Instead, they sense that the inflation numbers are like the data on immigration or the crime statistics - the product of an official machine that pays no attention to their daily reality and comes from another planet. Are they right?

Telegraph: Public spending watchdog's verdict on Gordon Brown

Sir John Bourn, the Auditor General, has launched a blistering attack on the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, branding the Treasury's flagship tax credits policy "a failure" and describing the expansion of means testing as "ridiculous". The country's most senior public spending watchdog, Sir John also told The Sunday Telegraph that Network Rail's £23 billion debt should be on the Government's books - which would shatter the Chancellor's spending rules, causing the Government intense embarrassment. He also said official statisticians felt "real anger" that their independence "is being subverted" by ministers.

The Scotsman: Standard Life 'approached' by Friends Provident

Standard Life Investments said last week that it plans to raise up to £200m for a property development fund to help protect investors from an expected slowdown in UK real estate returns.

Independent: It's follow that base rate as fixed home loans rise in price

A recent rise in fixed mortgage rates is making trackers - which follow the Bank of England base rate - more popular. The cost of fixes has begun to creep up as economic warning signs, such as higher inflation, have persuaded the money markets - where lenders borrow from each other - that a base rate rise is on its way after 11 months at 4.5 per cent.

The Times: Bank calls for rise in death duty threshold

The number of estates liable for death duties is likely to soar over the next 15 years as rising house prices push the value of four million homes above the inheritance tax threshold.

Firstrung: Barratts look into parents pockets to aid first time buyers

Once again we find a builder offering the much criticised 'gifted deposits' in a different guise. Fact - most new builds are significantly over-priced and if there is to be a price correction historically the new build gets hit first and hardest. This should not escape the first time buyer. You could be left holding a property worth less than you paid for it and having received parental assistance the plight will be much worse if you witness your 'together' deposit simply evaporate in terms of value.

Citywire: Live and let buy

Some MPs and local authorities are calling for controls on what they see as the damaging buy-to-let market. However, the mortgage industry has hit back hard to counter this stance. The recent call by MPs for more controls on buy-to-let, claiming that it is ‘distorting’ the property market, forcing up prices and crowding out local buyers, caused something of a flutter in the mortgage and property market.

Posted by bobed @ 05:41 PM 7 Comments

Times Online: The really big test is after university

With no savings, an average debt of £13,500 and an average salary of £19,000 - assuming they find a job - this year’s graduates are hardly on the firmest financial footing when they enter the working world. A survey by Equifax found that 11 per cent of respondents with student loans are considering bankruptcy.

Posted by uncle chris @ 05:15 PM 6 Comments

thisismoney.co.uk: New buyers happy to haggle

FIRST-time buyers are feeling increasingly confident about the property market, with nearly half saying they would not offer the full asking price straight away, a survey showed today.

Telegraph: Word on the street: Apocalypse now? Having read the signs, I don't think so

House price forecasts aren't the kind of thing one gets into fisticuffs over. Or so I thought until I found myself in a fevered discussion with a friend-of-a-friend in the pub. The topic of the housing market came up, and I volunteered my predictions.

Posted by webmaster @ 10:26 AM 16 Comments

guardian: Interest-only mortgage crisis looms

Whether house prices drop or not, there's going to be a lot of knackered people in the future. "There are worrying signs of irresponsible lending by mortgage companies happy to push loans without properly explaining the consequences of taking the interest-only route" marvellous.

Posted by inbreda @ 08:45 AM 9 Comments

Firstrung: First time buyers locked out of local communities

Established communities in Lancashire are in danger of being ripped apart by a lack of affordable housing with local property experts suggesting that huge rises in house prices mean people who have grown up in towns and villages are being priced out, breaking up traditional community life.

Firstrung: Home hunters taking longer to buy groceries than a house

House hunters spend less than 30 minutes viewing the property that becomes their family home, half the time they spend doing their weekly food shop. Yet, professional home buyers County Homesearch says that home buyers should spend double that when viewing a house and should not be swayed by positive first impressions.

In2Perspective: HIPs were set to trigger a 30% fall in house prices

Home Information Packs (HIPs) would have triggered a crash in the property market that would have resulted in up to £1.35 trillion being wiped of the value of UK homes.

Posted by webmaster @ 04:21 PM 10 Comments

Firstrung: Smartnewhomes.com admits prices of new builds continues to fall

Despite the current overall shortage of properties on the market, the price of new apartments fell in June, suggesting that builders are being wrongly forced to build too many apartments and not enough houses. This fall reinforces concerns that during a time when the country is suffering from a lack of supply, too many apartments and high density properties are being developed, at the expense of family homes and the consumer.

Firstrung: Repossessions set to double from their 2004 mark

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) predicted repossessions would rise to 12,000 this year, up from 10,310 in 2005, while figures from the Department of Constitutional Affairs (DCA) showed a 29 per cent rise in the number of court actions between quarter one 2005 and quarter two 2006.

Guardian: Could buying a lot of this be the smartest way to buy a house?

From an investment industry that came up with the endowment policy, many of which are falling far short of original expectation, there is a new wheeze. Lovers of fine wine are being offered the chance to stake their home on the value of their cellar with a mortgage invested in vintage Bordeaux.

BBC News: Worst June ever for UK finances

UK public finances suffered their worst June on record, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show. Government borrowing rose to £7.3bn in June from £6.2bn during the same month last year - significantly higher than analysts' forecasts of £6.5bn.

BBC News: UK's economic growth accelerates

The UK economy grew at its fastest rate for two years in the second quarter of this year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said. UK GDP grew by 0.8% between April and June, compared to the previous quarter.

Liverpool Daily Post: Homes reprieved as mass demolition plans frozen

LIVERPOOL'S plans to bulldoze 3,000 terraced houses as part of the biggest clearance programme for 40 years, lay in tatters last night, jubilant critics claimed.

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:55 PM 8 Comments

Times Online: Bank warns imports risk stoking inflation

Sir John Gieve, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, today gave warning that policymakers "will not hesitate to change interest rates" to keep inflation on track as the deflationary benefits cheap imports show signs of retreating.

Posted by bobed @ 04:22 PM 6 Comments

MoneyWeek: Can UK house prices really jump another 50% by 2011?

Earlier this week, a report conducted by Oxford Economic Forecasting, commissioned by the National Federation of Housebuilders, claimed that the average house price would top £300,000 by 2011. Money Week exposes a couple of flaws with this report.

Wall Street journal: Sizzling Housing Markets Chill

The housing market continues to weaken in much of the country as houses take longer to move off the market and many sellers cut their asking prices, according to a quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal...

WSJ: Sizzling Housing Markets Chill

The housing market continues to weaken in much of the country as houses take longer to move off the market and many sellers cut their asking prices, according to a quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal.

TimesOnline: High Street piles pressure on rates

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales rose at a higher than expected 0.9% in May. Economists has expected 0.2%. David Page an ecomomist at Investec said, "We had pencilled in an August rate hike and, if anything, this number makes our view slightly firmer". The HSBC ecomomics team believe the data will not be sufficient to sway the MPC who they say will treat the data with an eye on a possible World Cup effect.

Reuters: June retail sales soar

Retail sales rose more than expected in June, driven by food sales at supermarkets, while the previous month's increase was revised higher even as overall price pressures increased markedly. The surprisingly strong 0.9 percent monthly gain was more than double the 0.4 percent expected and confounded many analysts' forecasts that the World Cup football tournament would keep Britons away from the shops. It also boosted expectations that the Bank of England may soon raise interest rates, given that May's gain was revised up to 0.7 percent from 0.4 and the three-month on three-month trend rate was its strongest since February 2004.

Firstrung: National Association of Licensed Home Inspectors comments on HIPS

Frustration, disappointment and anger are some of the immediate feelings being echoed around the country from potential Home Inspectors many of whom have committed heavily in terms of money and time to be ready for HIPs Day on June 1st 2007.

MoneyWeek: Can UK house prices really jump another 50% by 2011?

The demise of Home Information Packs has been largely welcomed by the estate agent industry. But there are still plenty of reasons to be worried about the UK property market.

Firstrung: Gross mortgage lending hit a new record level in June, reaching £32.2 billion

Gross mortgage lending hit a new record level in June, reaching £32.2 billion, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). This is up from £25.7 billion last June, and is higher than the previous monthly record, set only in May, of £29.1 billion.

Firstrung: Can UK house prices really jump another 50% by 2011?

Who will be buying all these houses? If people can't afford mortgage repayments, they won't be able to afford rents to cover them either. So unless buy-to-let investors remain uncommonly stupid (not to mention solvent) and keep subsidising their tenants' rents for the next six years, we just don't see how affordability could ever fall that far without a crash in the market.

BBC: June sees record mortgage lending

The council of mortgage lenders (CML) reports that gross mortgage lending reached £32.2bn in June making it the highest monthly figure on record. Lending was 11% higher than May and 30% higher than June 05.

Posted by denzil @ 10:38 AM 11 Comments

TimesOnline: Rightmove suffers £100m Hips blow

Rightmove shares were downgraded from “buy” to “hold” by and its target price was slashed from 425p to 310p by Analysts at Panmure Gordon.

Colourful Radio: Debt and financial planning

Debt and how did we get here and what can we do about it. Can someone digitise it and put it on here if you think its good enough 11am ish this morning with Karen Morgan

Colourful Radio: Debt and financial planning

Karen Morgan interviewing. Debt and financial planning - how did we get here and what can we do about it?

BBC News: How high can house prices go?

...But there are still some pessimists out there. Just because a crash hasn't happened yet doesn't mean that it won't, says Reinhard Schu, spokesman for Housepricecrash.co.uk.

Posted by webmaster @ 02:05 PM 9 Comments

BBC: Fuel pushes up US producer prices

US wholesale prices rose by a more than expected 0.5% in June, underpinned by higher food and energy costs, according to data from the Department of Labor. The increase in farm and factory prices beat the forecast of a 0.3% gain, and could push interest rates higher.

TimesOnline: Investors' outlook hits five-year low on the gloom scale

Investors around the globe are hunkering down in the belief that choppy economic weather is on the horizon. Sentiment has rapidly shifted with 60% of investors now expecting the world economy to weaken in the coming year. Just three months ago only 5% of respondents held that view.

PricedOut.org.uk: A discrepancy at the heart of government home owner statistics?

The article highlights some conflicting figures at the heart of government claims that home ownership is on the rise.

"71% of people now own their own homes proclaims the government. Owner occupation continues to rise steadily according to DCLG statistics. Sounds good doesn't it... but is it too good to be true?"

FT: Rightmove shares plummet on Hip U-turn

Shares in property website Rightmove dived today after hopes of a major earnings boost from the launch of Home Information Packs were dashed. The blow came after the Government said the controversial survey element of the packs would not be included at their launch next year. Rightmove, which has positioned itself to offer services linked to the new packs, said revenues and potential earnings from its HIPs product were now likely to be "significantly lower" than current market expectations. Shares in the company, which rallied earlier this month because of a strong trading update, fell by 19% to 285.5p. One of its major stakeholders, estate agency group Countrywide, saw its shares dip by more than 6%. Rightmove's share price is now back below its flotation price of 335p in March.

Firstrung: First time buyers will need to spend 50% of salary on interest re-payments if rates rise by just 0.25%

Someone on average earnings buying an averaged priced property with a 20% deposit can expect to spend nearly half of their take-home pay on mortgage interest repayments if the cost of borrowing rises. A 0.25% rise in interest rates to 4.75% before the end of the year, would mean a typical buyer had to spend 49.8% of their salary on interest repayments alone, said lender Cheltenham & Gloucester, the highest level since 1991.

BBC News: Bank unanimous over rate freeze

All seven members of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee voted to leave borrowing costs unchanged at 4.5% in July, minutes have shown. The minutes indicated that the monetary policy committee (MPC) was concerned about both accelerating price growth and a slowing economy.

MoneyWeek: When will UK interest rates rise again?

UK inflation is now at its highest since Labour came to power in 1997. Commentators are still drivelling on about 'core' inflation, but since when was the price of suit hire more important than the price of petrol? So can we expect to see another hike in UK interest rates this summer?

Posted by mary @ 10:34 AM 6 Comments

BBC News: BP shuts down 12 Alaska oil wells

BP has shut 12 producing wells at its Alaskan operations after workers told the Financial Times the wells were leaking oil or diesel insulating agent. The British oil firm said they had been shut while the allegations were being investigated.

Firstrung: Hopeful homeowners, most Britons think their area will beat the market

An overwhelming majority of Britain's homeowners firmly believe that prices in their area will outperform the national average, according to new research from property website propertyfinder.com. Six times as many people believe their district is up and coming compared to those who think that it is doing less well than other areas.

Annanova: 50% of take home pay on mortgage

A 0.25% rise in interest rates to 4.75% before the end of the year, would mean a typical buyer had to spend 49.8% of their salary on interest repayments alone, said lender Cheltenham & Gloucester. That would be the highest level since 1991.\r\n

Guardian online: Global economic turmoil ahead?

Merrill Lynch survey showed yesterday that out of the 213 global fund managers surveyed by the investment bank, 60% expected the global economy to weaken over the next 12 months, a sharp leap from the 5% who took this view only three months ago and the most negative result in the survey's five-year history

FT: U-turn on home information packs

Sod the 700,000 FTB's displaced by BTL and insanely high house prices. Phil and Kirsty say anything that causes prices to do down is a bad thing so the government jump to their tune and can it. "The government appeared to have buckled under pressure after 130 MPs last week signed a motion against the packs amid fears they could affect house prices."

BBC News: UK fuel duty rise delayed again

An increase in fuel duty planned for the start of September has been ruled out by the government. Junior Treasury Minister John Healey said duty would be frozen as the risk of oil price volatility remains high.

HM Govt Press Release: Review of HIP

Home Conditon Reports, the key element of the Home Info Pack (HIP), has been postponed. This was to be the main fee-earning element for Home Inspectors (circa £150 per HCR).

In2Perspective: Estate agents 'thankful' for HIP U-turn

Estate agents and mortgage lenders are breathing a collective sigh of relieve today after the Government announced it is unable to meet the necessary timetable to fully introduce Home Information Packs (HIPs) in June 2007.

Posted by pack man @ 06:06 PM 6 Comments

guardian: Government braced for rate rise

The government was softening up the public today for an increase in interest rates after soaring gas and electricity bills pushed the annual rate of inflation to its highest level since Labour arrived in office more than nine years ago.

TimesOnline: North-South house price divide hits record

According to the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) a mini-boom in the south east driven by the financial sector has caused house prices in London to grow at their fastest pace for six and a half years during June. RICS said that nationwide 28% more surveyors reported prices rising than those that saw falls

BBC website: International Commuting

Lord, give me strength. Report says Barcelona - London commuting will be taking off due to - guess what! IS it not at all possible to those regurgitating idiots (editors) that HPs will actually fall when this sort of this rears its stupid and ugly head.

BBC News: London 'sees housing market boom'

House prices are surging in London and the south-east of England, widening the north-south divide, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) has said. Are we seeing Spin in desperation?..

BBC News: Fuel costs push inflation to 2.5%

Rising energy bills continued to push drive UK inflation above government targets of 2% in June, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said. I wonder if the BoE care?..

Posted by kpjcomp @ 10:28 AM 14 Comments

Firstrung: Experian witnesses business failures increase by 2% in the last quarter

Business failures in the UK rose to 4,720 (2.0 per cent) in the second quarter of 2006 compared to the same period in 2005, bringing the total for the year so far to 9,538 - 8.9 per cent more than in the first half of last year, according to the latest figures from Experian

Firstrung: Housing minister Yvette Cooper reveals 50mil for London homeless and overcrowded

£50 million to help homeless and overcrowded families in London, has been announced by Housing Minister Yvette Cooper.

Firstrung: Tenants to have their deposits protected legally from April 2007

The Tenancy Deposit Protection will take hold on April 6 in an effort to protect tenants and good landlords alike. It will put a stop to the situation whereby landlords can withhold deposits unfairly.

Posted by Converted Lurker @ 12:28 AM 6 Comments

South China Morning Post: HK buyers face demands for UK capital gains tax

The British government ought to consider making Hong Kong investors pay capital gains tax, Britain's first-time buyers have demanded. Those Britons struggling to get their foot on to the property ladder have been angered by a wave of overseas investment that has helped to push up prices in some parts of the country, most notably London.

Firstrung: Disastrous news for first time buyers as house prices predicted to reach on average £300K by 2011

"Crisis is an over-used word but I make no apology for using it: we are already in crisis and this report shows that things are set to get worse. "High house prices are already having a disastrous effect on local communities. People are unable to find a home in the area where they grew up. Parents are forced to work longer hours and travel greater distances. Low-income families are forced to live in poor quality, cramped conditions."

Posted by Converted Lurker @ 12:14 PM 19 Comments

Rightmove: Asking prices jump 2.9%

Well, here's a surprise! Not round here, certainly, and one wonders whether this is a surge of optimism on the part of vendors that will not be matched by buyers. What's happening in your neck of the woods??

Posted by uncle tom @ 11:48 AM 11 Comments

TimesOnline: South East leads property price rises

According to Rightmove asking prices in England and Wales jumped by £6137 in the month to the first week of July. The largest rise was in the South East where prices rose by more than £12000 during the month. Asking prices in two of the ten regions fell.

Guardian: House prices to soar 50% within six years

projection of housing prices by housing associations trying to point out how bad it could be.

Posted by inbreda @ 09:20 AM 13 Comments

Telegraph: Increase in house prices is highest for five years

The average asking price for a home jumped by more than £6,000 in the past month, the largest monthly increase for almost five years. Figures from the property website Rightmove show that the average asking price for a home is now £217,580, almost 10 times the average salary. That represents a £6,137 increase between June 11 and July 8, Miles Shipside, the commercial director, said.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:13 AM 18 Comments

The Independent: Whatever happened to the demolition of our housing market?

Prices have held up, but the doomsters haven't gone away The prophets of doom who forecast crashes wiping as much as 40 per cent from the value of our homes have been silent for months as UK house prices have chugged along. Latest figures from major indices, including those from Nationwide building society and the official Land Registry, put annual house price rises at between 5 and 9 per cent (the variation is largely down to different methods of collecting data).

Sunday Telegraph: The interesting dilemma of debt

"Britain is a society awash with debt. Yet without strong consumer borrowing the economy would have come close to recession. So is consumer debt a threat or our salvation? The rapid growth of credit over recent years may be a good thing but riskless it ain't."

Firstrung: Home Information Packs and first time buyers a definitive explanation

Is there more concise and relevant advice on the benefits of HIPS for the FTB than this? We don't think so..=;¬)

Firstrung: 2006 - the housing crash that wasn't - housing & mortgage market analysis

Now that we are past the half way mark of the year and the football and tennis is over, we can get back to chatting about our favourite subject - house prices! Just like the England team, house prices have recently suffered a set back. While looking better than expected than at the beginning of the year, house prices took a tumble in June as mortgage lending fell away by 4% during March and May.

Times Online: Britain and world set for ‘hard landing’

Fears are growing of a sharp slowdown in the global economy, triggered by big increases in energy prices and rising interest rates. Economists at HSBC say there is a greater risk of a “hard landing” for both the world economy and Britain.

Posted by uncle chris @ 01:14 AM 10 Comments

New Zealand Herald: Middle-New Zealand feels pinch

Skyrocketing household costs are squeezing even comparatively wealthy New Zealanders out of their homes.

T