Check out the finanical hoods in your neighbourhood
Spotted in the Forum, have a look, very interesting but I cant work out why someone would buy (or state) a purchase value e.g. a leasehold terraced house in Warrington as £48,295,950 or a new build Flat on the outskirts as £16,028,500. Check out your neighbourhood.
London property will be mortally damaged during the great unwind
It is exactly a year since we forecast that a Great Unwinding of stimulus policies was underway, due to a major slowdown in China....Those who have chased London house prices into the stratosphere may come to learn a similar lesson, as the Chinese buyers who have powered demand for new-build houses in the city centre exit their positions.
Another interesting article my Merryn Somerset Webb
"If you cant get a return on cash, says Capital Economics, you might as well rent out your old home or just keep it empty when you move" This is an interesting idea. While the renting out part is not a disaster - it doesn't shrink the supply of housing, just reduces liquidity - the leaving empty is a big problem. If there's no fire lit under the landowner by interest rates in excess of house price inflation, if you have the cash flow, you can hold onto the house for a lot longer. My neighbour did this - house was on the market but empty for moire than 6 months before she extracted a crippling sum from the buyer. Over this period, the increase in price dwarfed any actual opportunity cost.
More green shoots....UK heading for low wage, low growth and high debt
Mail: Number of people with a zero-hours contracts jumps by a fifth in a year and 40% want to work more
The number of people who say they have a zero-hours contract has jumped by a fifth in a year, new figures showed today. The Office for National Statistics said 744,000 have a deal which does not guarantee any hours, with 40 per cent saying they would like more work.
The annual rate of house price growth was the weakest for two years in August, said Nationwide, despite a 0.3% monthly rise in prices. The Nationwides findings on house prices reflect a much more modest growth than that documented by rival Halifax. Earlier this month, Halifax reported that house prices are almost 8% higher than they were a year ago and are likely to rise again over the coming months.
Forget interset rate rises - the Fed is bluffing
With US stock, bond and real estate markets all looking over-valued, at the same time (in 1929 it was only stocks) and investors fleeing stock and bonds, interest rate rises are out. Corporations need to borrow to manipulate stock-markets upwards via buy-backs, banks need to protect the value of securities on their books - kept up by low IRs, and the last thing corporations with declining earnings and revenues need is to divert more cash to debt servicing.
Real estate as investment and tax dodge, rather than as dwelling
What draws the world to London is opportunity. But it is also a magnet for people looking for a safe place for their money. Having made it in countries like Russia and China with a cowed press, rampant corruption and no rule of law, oligarchs and crony capitalists reach the conclusion that they like nothing as much as democratic systems with real legal systems and a vigorous press. Having trashed the West they trust the West with their money, driving up prices in prime markets to the point where the middle classes of those countries, with incomes stagnant or falling (and taxed), are pushed aside. London is the capital of these trends. That is the different reek, of something amiss and skewed and wrong, in its purring streets.
Increased mortgage approvals, not necessarily new sales
The UK Housing Market and Out of Control Immigration
Nothing illustrates the consequences of continuing out of control immigration more than its impact on the UK housing market, where Conservative election promises to build 200,000 homes per year will prove totally worthless in wake of the immigration Tsunami against which housing building cannot even keep pace with existing demand let alone deal with new demand, especially when one considers that the UK population is already growing naturally by about 300,000 per year which means that even if the promised 200,000 homes were built, then it will not be enough to keep pace with population increasing by 600,000 per year, let alone that far fewer homes will probably be built at the rate of approx 140,000 per year. 1.25 million properties may be required to just to stand still.
Notes on a Micro Bubble
Textbook bubble story: "this was autumn 2007, and this was Northern Ireland. For a brief moment in time a province that was a byword for violence transformed itself into the worlds most sizzling property market. Builders who were knocking out small estates of semis initially priced at £120,000 were selling them for £200,000 on completion six months later. Investors from the Celtic Tiger south were driving north and snapping up anything they could lay their hands on. Banks were falling over themselves to lend."