It's all Brexit's fault, surely?

The Star, Malaysia: China's capital controls start biting

In recent years, mainland Chinese corporations and cash-rich individuals have been the world’s largest buyers of real estate but this global property binge may subside soon. Since late November, the world’s second largest economy has been scrutinising the deals and projects of its home grown companies abroad and fund repatriation by individuals, particularly towards mega property investments, doubtful mergers and acquisitions (M&A).

Posted by sneaker @ 07:30 AM 0 Comments

Friday, Mar 17, 2017

QE, asset-price inflation and wages

Bloomberg: Here’s One Chart That Captures the Debate Over QE

First chart shows the 'stellar' gains in world asset prices since 2008 and the sluggish growth in the economy. “We don’t know how effective QE has been (i.e. for the real economy) because we don’t know what would have happened without it,” said Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman in London. Falling interest rates supported most financial assets, while for the economy “QE has been effective to prevent downside risk,” he said. Any suggestions for a translation of this quote? Third chart shows how ballooning central bank balance sheets have ballooned equity prices. Will the Fed rein back QE and raise Treasury yields and mortgage securities?

Posted by icarus @ 01:11 PM 0 Comments

Sunday, Mar 12, 2017

Damn that pesky Brexit

Zero Hedge: Manhattan Luxury Housing In Freefall: J.Crew CEO Slashes Tribeca Loft Price By Over 40%

If the downturn in London property is because of Brexit .... then why is it happening everywhere? Manhattan, Los Angeles, Vancouver, Hong Kong, you name it.... The answer is it's nothing to do with Brexit! It's because of capital flight controls in China and all the other factors we know well: rising US Dollar interest rates, Russia sanctions, oil crash etc etc But no doubt what's happening in London will be myopically attributed to Brexit. I read elsewhere that Nine Elms bee builds are being offered "cheap" but in reality even down 30% they are still expensive. Who are the buyers if offshore buyers can't cough up any more? The answer is onshore buyers, but only at prices they can afford and they are much lower... the market will clear but not up here.

Posted by sneaker @ 10:09 AM 2 Comments

Friday, Mar 10, 2017

Buy to let a dying tax dodge

Daily Telegraph: What does the budget mean fro buy tolet landlords

This article is a reminder of just how hard the high loan to value Buy to Letters are going to be hit in the next few years. From April 6th they will be taxed on 25% of their mortgage interest leading to 100% by 2021. This will put many under water based on current low interest rates. Add in a small rise in interest rates and changes in NI and much off this sector will unravel. Already we have seen a massive decline in people buying Buy to Let. The next stage will be people selling. A lot of landlords are crying that this will create a housing shortage and put up rents. This is nonsense as houses get recycled not demolished. so a house taken out of the buy to let sector becomes an owned house and one less renter.

Posted by britishblue @ 08:21 AM 2 Comments

Wednesday, Mar 8, 2017

Better than the prospects for renters :(

Shaun Richards Notayesmaneconomics blog: What are the prospects for UK house prices?

UK economic growth has been amazingly steady but the issue will come in the latter half of the year when we are hit by higher inflation levels. These days what was previously regarded as relatively low inflation ( 3%+ on CPI and 4%+ on RPI) has a larger impact because so far on the credit crunch wage growth has not risen with it so we saw a sharp fall in real wages around 2011 for example. It is not impossible that the Bank of England could cut Bank Rate again or produce other house price and bank friendly measures but even they may balk at that with inflation above target. Thus house price growth looks set to fade and the price falls will spread out from Central London. How far across the country they will go depends on the mix between economic growth that 2017 and 18 deliver to us.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:04 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, Mar 7, 2017

'Surely not'

FT Adviser: Billions of corrupt wealth ‘fuelling London housing crisis’

Corrupt money is thought to be pouring into London’s housing market and exacerbating the capital’s housing crisis, with more than £4.2bn worth of property bought using suspicious wealth.The acquisition of luxury property by corrupt individuals is causing a ripple effect, driving up prices in the rest of the capital and pushing many Londoners out of the city, according to a report by Berlin-based anti-corruption NGO Transparency International.

Posted by jack c @ 09:43 AM 4 Comments

Sunday, Mar 5, 2017

Look to the land

Grauniad: Why have all attempts to fix Britain’s housing crisis failed? Look to the land

Its the Land stupid so tax it...

Posted by pete green @ 04:46 PM 2 Comments

Tuesday, Feb 28, 2017

What is this guy up to?

Daily mail: Carney loosens mortgage lending restrictions

why on earth would he do that? either this guy is on another agenda to indebt the whole country with money they cant pay back or he's lost the plot

Posted by taffee @ 11:44 AM 4 Comments

Monday, Feb 20, 2017

Councils borrowing for commercial properties

FT: A quirky and hazardous corner of British public finance

Councils involved in property speculation again. Hopefully it won't work out like Hammersmith and Fulham.

Posted by stillthinking @ 04:55 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, Feb 14, 2017

Gotta Keep It Going

Today's Convayancer: First-time buyer demand for family support builds

Is BOMAD running out of funds? No problem BOGAG is open for business. Can we get another layer in at the bottom of the pyramid?

Posted by crash bandicoot @ 10:12 PM 8 Comments

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