Oooooh noooooo

Telegraph: Mass default looms as world sinks beneath a sea of debt

On a global level, growth is being steadily drowned under a rising tide of debt, threatening renewed financial crisis, a continued squeeze to living standards, and eventual mass default.

Posted by mark @ 09:48 AM 7 Comments

Prices resume falling

Nationwide: UK house prices fell by 0.2% in September

UK house prices fell by 0.2% in September, following sixteen consecutive monthly price rises. Annual house price growth in London slowed somewhat, from 25.8% in Q2 to 21% (-4.8%) in Q3. Nevertheless, at £401,072, average prices in the capital reached a record high, 31% above their 2007 peak. In the UK as whole, prices are around 2% above their pre-crisis peak (excluding London they are less than 1% above their 2007 peak). “Price growth may soften further in the final quarter of the year, given the high base for comparison from Q4 2013. However, the outlook remains uncertain. There have been tentative signs from surveyors and estate agents that buyer demand is starting to moderate.

Posted by khards @ 09:15 AM 7 Comments

Start of a new trend

This is Money: You wait ages for a decent 5-year fix mortgage and then five come at once: Nationwide and Barclays latest to cut rates back below 3%

Anybody viewing bond rates will have seen that the longer term bonds are collapsing as the yield curve flattens like a pancake. My prediction is that this trend will continue unabated until we see affordable 15, 20 and even 25 year fixed terms. This is a longer term trend yet, since fixed rates were not even at all available in the 1970's for most people. With oil prices starting to collapse, wages not rise for at least three years and petrol prices plunging 5p in recent weeks, expect lower central bank rates before they rise. Expect negative rates before we see them much higher.

Posted by libertas @ 12:18 AM 3 Comments

Monday, Sep 29, 2014

Sainsbury's slashes petrol 5p/litre

Telegraph: Petro Price Wars

Did I hear DEFLATION? I bet those folks sucked into five year fixed rates are squirming now.

Posted by libertas @ 11:53 PM 1 Comments

Interest rates set to remain low for AT LEAST three years

Metro: Three more years of wages misery: Middle-income earners hardest hit as real pay continues to fall

This, along with Osborne's announced austerity means DEFLATION, countered by money printing that will ramp house prices.

Posted by libertas @ 11:52 PM 0 Comments

Wise words from down under - equally appropriate to UK

The daily Reckoning: Pareto’s 80–20 rule and Economic Rent

"Pareto’s pioneering study was actually in relation to population and wealth. His very first piece of research found that 20% of the population owned 80% of the land in Italy, and he observed the obvious inequality that followed. He then carried out surveys on a variety of other countries. To his surprise, he found that a similar distribution applied. Now, the fact that land ownership is concentrated should not have surprised Pareto. And it shouldn’t surprise you, simply because land is economically worthwhile to accumulate — to collect the economic rent. And since only 20% of the people are collecting this rent, this leads to an obvious concentration of wealth."

Posted by pete green @ 02:19 PM 0 Comments

When government intervention helps the free market

Forbes: In World's Best-Run Economy, House Prices Keep Falling -- Because That's What House Prices Are Supposed To Do

A thought provoking article on government mandated house prices in Germany - but it is fundamental to their economic success - of course this would be better achieved by a Land Value Tax than government mandated prices and borrowing limits.

Posted by pete green @ 01:39 PM 1 Comments

Interest in taking on record levels of debt in decline

Housing market stalls and GDP is re-evaluated: Cityam

This was not news for me as I have been watching the mortgage market very closely via google trends. The reason for using google trends is that I believe it to be less manipulated than bank/government stats. If you also take trends for Rightmove's website interest and the above 'mortgage loan' website category you will find a strong correlation between google search interest and property prices. There is a few months lag between prices falling and interest in mortgages falling, but that could be the land registry and sales process lag. You will also find that price rises also correlate with increased interest in mortgages. The above chart if for UK only.

Posted by khards @ 10:51 AM 5 Comments

Less money chasing and extra 130k properties this autumn

Reuters: UK mortgage approvals fall more than expected in August

The Bank of England said mortgage approvals numbered 64,212 last month, the weakest reading since May, and down from 66,100 in July. Analysts had forecast a modest fall in approvals to 65,000. Monthly mortgage approvals are still short of the 90,000 level seen before the 2008 financial crisis, and below a recent peak of more than 76,000 in January. Recent surveys of the housing market have suggested the pace of its recovery has slowed, after rapid growth in activity and house prices at the start of the year. The British Bankers' Association reported last week that the number of mortgages approved by its members fell to a 12-month low in August.

Posted by khards @ 10:09 AM 6 Comments

The students who pay £1000pw in Prime Central London

Wetherell: The students who pay £1000pw in Prime Central London

Students from wealthy families from Middle East, Russia and Africa are now the biggest luxury rental market in Central London, according to a study by London Central Portfolio. Naomi Heaton, chief executive of London Central Portfolio, said students are now the firm's biggest market, occupying 41% of its properties at an average of £600 a week, or more than £2,500 a month. The number of wealthy, overseas student renters in the areas of Mayfair, Belgravia, Knightsbridge, Chelsea and Kensington, has doubled from 12% to 29% between 2006 and 2012.

Posted by anna @ 08:54 AM 0 Comments

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