Increased mortgage approvals, not necessarily new sales
The UK Housing Market and Out of Control Immigration
Nothing illustrates the consequences of continuing out of control immigration more than its impact on the UK housing market, where Conservative election promises to build 200,000 homes per year will prove totally worthless in wake of the immigration Tsunami against which housing building cannot even keep pace with existing demand let alone deal with new demand, especially when one considers that the UK population is already growing naturally by about 300,000 per year which means that even if the promised 200,000 homes were built, then it will not be enough to keep pace with population increasing by 600,000 per year, let alone that far fewer homes will probably be built at the rate of approx 140,000 per year. 1.25 million properties may be required to just to stand still.
Notes on a Micro Bubble
Textbook bubble story: "this was autumn 2007, and this was Northern Ireland. For a brief moment in time a province that was a byword for violence transformed itself into the worlds most sizzling property market. Builders who were knocking out small estates of semis initially priced at £120,000 were selling them for £200,000 on completion six months later. Investors from the Celtic Tiger south were driving north and snapping up anything they could lay their hands on. Banks were falling over themselves to lend."
Enfield now has the second fastest house prices in the uk
Drop in transactions is apparently good news for buyers
It would be interesting to see this broken down into BTL, cash buyers, (ideally foreign buyers) etc. In the aftermath of the crash, they said a lack of transactions was bad news for buyers, which made sense. There was not much stock (no forced sellers) and that held prices up. Now, a lack of transactions is supposedly good news, but surely that could just as easily be that people aren't moving (i.e. selling). Anyway, it's from the LR, so old news but it's interesting to hear them say the market is cooling.
"Savvy" homeowners lock in fixed rates before rates fail to rise
This Is Money: Homeowners rush to remortgage amid fears of a rate rise as home loan approvals jump to 17-month high
So, Carney's amusement arcade in the home owner carnival is rolling them up to commit to expensive fixed rate mortgages, making them feel "savvy" whilst the banksters get off rotten rich. Sealing in necessarily expensive fixed term mortgages. Meanwhile, in the real world, deflation is setting in with oil below $40, China cratering and price indexes along with interest rates set to turn negative. Hell would freeze over before BOE raises rates until inflation gets above 1.5%. We have a long way to go.
Just like Tokyo 1989
They said it would go up forever and would never end. Right? Oil states - oil crash - even Saudi having to issue bonds to cover budget short-fall Russia - sanctions & oil crash - oligarchs no longer in evidence around London China - corruption crack-down (has been going for a while) OECD - tax-haven crack-down UK - offshore-owned properties now taxed with beneficial owners identified In general - dawning realisation that public officials on public-sector salaries around the world can't also have hundreds of millions of clean money And now the final shoe to drop: China - stock market collapse; but if you can't sell your stocks, you have to sell something else to cover your margin call. Like that luxury London property you bought in the last year or two.
BTTL is sooooo topas
History is replete with examples of "never again!" Right now we seem to be almost circa 2007 again. One big institutional failure and a few misplaced bets and there is real trouble. I'll do Mr Carneys job for him now. "rates ain't rising this year, folks!"