No way there will be a crash just before an election
... I note that we have passed the pre credit crunch peak for house prices at least according to the Nationwide. But real wages are of the order of 10% lower than they were then and nominal wages are only 8% higher than they were six years ago. If we project that rate of wage growth going forwards then we have a problem for future house prices do we not? Yet we know that UK governments are extraordinarily resistant to letting them fall for any sustained period. So what rabbit will the authorities pull out of their hat next?
Nice chart showing artificially high demand and change in demand (%mom)
Proof that the shortage of houses for sale is cause by speculators rather than a physical housing shortage. Demand for housing has increased by 23% in the eight months to August, on a par with growth over 2013. However, compared to 2013, when demand continued to grow month on month over the year, there has been a clear slowdown in the latest three months of 2014. Leading London and the South East are registering an increase in the time on the market which is most marked in London. This forward indicator is showing that the market is about to go into full retard.
Here we go again
The Housing Echo-Bubble Is Popping
There is nothing remotely "normal" about the echo-bubble's rise, and we can anticipate that its deflation will be equally abnormal. Conventional wisdom on the resurgence of the housing markets takes one of two paths: 1. Housing is not in a bubble, it is merely returning to "normal" 2. Housing is bubbly in some markets, but prices will continue to rise Here's an alternative view: housing is in an echo-bubble that's popping. Courtesy of the excellent Market Daily Briefing, here are some charts that make the case that the housing echo-bubble was just another speculative asset bubble that's popping, like every other speculative bubble in recorded history.
Ever wondered where all that chinese money is going apart from london
Cameron: 'The plan is working'
More than one in 10 parents admit skipping meals to save money and avoid risking losing their homes, a survey has found. Three million working parents in England are being forced to cut back on food so they can afford to pay for their homes. A YouGov poll of working families has found that rising housing costs mean more and more of our wages are needed to keep a roof over our heads. The problem has got so bad that more than one in 10 parents - over 750,000 people - admit to skipping meals rather than risk losing their home. Recent figures from the government's English Housing Survey show households are spending 28% of their weekly income on housing costs alone - and that rises to 40% for private renters. -- Short - Tesco --