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Latest: House Price Crash News

Saturday, Feb 4 2012 Add a News Blog Article

FSA notch a noteworthy success to protect people from themselves.

BBC: 'Sale and rent back' sector closed down by FSA

I remember these 'sell and rent back' schemes were big in the immediate aftermath of the 07/09 crash. Distressed homeowners unable to meet their mortgage repayments would sell their homes to these firms, obviously BMV, and rent it back to them. Of course the danger was no security of tenure or guarantee that these companies wouldn't rachet-up the rent after a year. So, fair play to the FSA for kicking this lot in to touch, although of course these sharks are simply symptoms of the problem.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 03:43 PM 11 Comments

Convenient whipping boy

Independent: Don't be distracted by Goodwin's dishonour

Having shown its impotence over Hester's bonus (its face saved by his waiving it) the government went for popularity by stripping an already discredited banker of his gong. Will this lead to an exodus of talent? Martin Taylor, former CEO of Barclays, said they pay themselves from imaginary profits - spreads on credit taking no account of default possibilities (done on a much bigger scale in recent years), unrealised profits on illiquid instruments on the trading book and calculating the net present value of non-existent future income streams. On the last two there's no income, merely 'booked revenues'. (Main link leads to the full Taylor quote.) Then of course they measure return on equity, which can be high when there's little equity and dangerously high leverage.

Posted by icarus @ 11:02 AM 1 Comments

Whats the point, so many tax fiddles and too high taxes

Liverpool daily post: More than £25m of council tax went uncollected by Merseyside councils over the last year

New figures reveal Liverpool was the fourth worst authority in the North West for non-collection, witrh more than £7.3m left outstanding in 2010/11. Sefton was the second worst offending council on Merseyside, failing to collect £5.4m, while Knowsley had the lowest non-collection rate of all six authorities, failing to bring in £1.4m. The worst performing authority in the North West for failure to collect council tax and non-domestic rates was Manchester, waiving more than £18.4m in the previous financial year.

Posted by mark @ 10:10 AM 18 Comments

The world is defo in a depression things are getting worse daily

Liverpool daily post: Pilkington to shed 150 jobs

UP TO 150 jobs will be lost at glassmaker Pilkington, it was announced yesterday. The St Helens firm’s parent company, Nippon Glass Sheet Group (NSG), plans to stop manufacturing at two sites in the town by the end of April.

Posted by mark @ 10:08 AM 0 Comments

Institute for Fiscal Studies talks sense on tax!

Guardian: IFS backs land value tax

"The idea is to cut income and business taxes while introducing a land value tax to end our obsession with property and to encourage paid work". Inevitably, some Home-Owner-Ist wades in with the usual Poor Widow Bogey nonsense: "When a government imposes a land value tax, aka "property tax" the government becomes the real owner of the land with the "owner" who bought the land becoming the equivalent of a renter, and the tax represents their rent payment to the government. If the tax is not paid, the "owner" is evicted by the government... which has become the REAL owner of the land. Imposition of property / LVT is confiscation of wealth without compensation. In addition, imposing an LVT takes away land as a secure investment option for the lower classes. {blah blah blah]"

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 04:55 PM 37 Comments

All change?

AboutProperty: Plea to turn failing High Streets into homes

Mr Wrigley said: "Unlike Mary Portas, I don't think we can continue to try to muddle through supporting the traditional high street model." He said deserted High Streets were victims of an irreversible trend to shopping malls, supermarkets and internet retailing and the government should relax planning laws instead to allow the mass conversion of failing town centres into housing.

Posted by phil @ 12:28 PM 8 Comments

Astra Zeneca are getting rid of 7000 people

Manchester evening news: Young and old hit and 400 jobs to go in £24m Salford council cuts

Salford council is slashing 400 jobs as part of a £24m cuts package that will hit the young, old and vulnerable. Town hall chiefs have been forced into a second year of huge savings after the government reduced its grant by a total of 19.6 per cent.

Posted by mark @ 09:47 AM 4 Comments

We own land, give us money!

Telegraph: Landowners to get £1,000 each to allow high speed rail contractors onto property

Landowners and farmers are to be paid £1,000 each to allow contractors involved in the high speed rail project onto their property. The payment will be to allow the company to carry out environmental surveys along the route. [So there'll be another, bigger whack of money when they actually come to build the thing.] If further inspections are needed additional payments will be made. [Of course.] In the case of tenant farmers, the money will be shared with the owner of the land. In addition HS2 will pay for any damage caused to the land as a result of the survey work. [It's beyond a joke now.]

Posted by drewster @ 11:40 PM 27 Comments

But what about the Vampire squid?

Reuters: Ex-Credit Suisse traders charged in subprime case

"Several former Credit Suisse traders manipulated the books on mortgage-backed securities when the U.S. real estate market slumped in 2007 and 2008, two of the former traders at the investment bank said in court on Wednesday". ""While the residential housing market was in free fall and shock waves were reverberating throughout the economy, these defendants decided they were above the rules of the market and above the law. As alleged, they papered over more than a half billion dollars in subprime mortgage-related losses to secure for themselves a big payday at the same time that many people were losing their homes and their jobs." (and what about all the others?)

Posted by alan @ 10:23 PM 2 Comments

Middlesbrough Council get in on the act...

Evening Gazette: More 'help for FTBs

So disappointing...I never even read the content

Posted by dazbo1983 @ 10:20 PM 0 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Nov 11 £205,796 N/A 0.30 Tick£221,758
(Jan 08)
7.2017/01/2012
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics) Dec 11 £220,385 0.20 0.50 Cross£231,595
(Feb 08)
4.8413/01/2012 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Dec 11 £160,063 0.90 1.30 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
19.8806/01/2012 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jan 12 N/A 0.30 0.60 Cross N/A N/A 12/01/2012 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey 30/01/12 Jan 12 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 30/01/2012
Land Registry Monthly Report 30/01/12 Dec 11 £160,384 0.00 1.30 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
13.7930/01/2012 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Dec 11 £163,822 0.20 1.00 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
11.9430/12/2011 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jan 12 £224,060 0.80 0.40 Tick£242,500
(May 08)
7.6016/01/2012 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Nov 11 £346,123 N/A N/A 3.20 Tick£351,096
(Jan 08)
1.4217/01/2012
Halifax House Price Index Q4 11 £271,628 N/A N/A 8.00 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
15.3420/01/2012 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report 30/01/12 Dec 11 £345,298 0.80 N/A 2.80 Tick£357,976
(Jan 08)
3.5430/01/2012 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q4 11 £298,216 N/A 2.60 5.40 Cross£303,739
(Q4 07)
1.8230/12/2011 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jan 12 £438,324 0.80 N/A 6.10 Tick£450,210
(Oct 11)
2.6416/01/2012 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive