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The London Property Market Built On Laundered Money
Why am I not surprised...The govt. couldn't give a monekys..     ...

Are The Shires Crashing ?
After 18 long months or watching asking price madness in the shires ( Northampto...

Britain Needs Decent Homes For Everyone. The Tories Won't Offer That - Diane Abbott
Not a fan of all her politics but she'll get my vote for London Mayor. We need r...

Buy-To-Let Landlords And Retirees Risk Squeezing Out First-Time Buyers
Guardian article, mostly talking about the effect of the pension changes on the ...

Barclays Reports 21% Fall In Pre-Tax Profits
    Barclays banking group, sponsor of football's Premier League, ha...

Austrian Bank Collapse And Bail-In
      After 5.5 billion euros ($6.2 billion) of taxpayer money ...

Forbes The Rich Just Got Richer
    A record 290 newcomers joined the Forbes billionaires list in th...

Oh Ffs - Brown Wants 'public-Private' Oil Fields
Let me guess.   The private get the profit bit.   The public gets the ...

Move Mps To Hull And Turn Parliament Into Affordable Flats?
Campaign group suggest moving MPs to Hull and turning parliament into affordable...

Instead Of Scrapping The Bbc Licence Fee They Want To Make It Compulsory For All Households!
...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Wednesday, Mar 4 2015 Add a News Blog Article

Boosting GDP one toke at a time

Zerohedge: "World-Leading Economist" And Advisor To Chancellor Osborne Busted For Smoking Crack

A leading economist is to step down as executive chairman of an influential City think-tank amid drug abuse allegations. Professor Douglas McWilliams, 63, revealed last night that he is to leave his role at the Centre for Economic and Business Research after footage emerged of him allegedly smoking crack cocaine in a north London drug den. The think-tank, which he founded in 1992, confirmed he will take a five-month sabbatical. McWilliams, who has also advised London Mayor Boris Johnson on housing, said last night he was ‘taking time off to deal with issues I have not had the chance to address fully when I have been in full-time work. Explains a lot of the fiction that passes for economics these days.

Posted by debtserf @ 02:39 PM 0 Comments

Not HPC folks excited about this

Mail: House prices slow for sixth month in a row

Britain's housing market showed further signs of cooling down today as a report revealed house price growth fell for the sixth month in a row in February.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:08 AM 15 Comments

Another prop just in time for the election

Independent: 20% off for FTB

The show must go on. Well for a while anyway.

Posted by chrisch @ 10:50 AM 17 Comments

Even Daily Mail readers can now afford a house

Daily Mail: 1.18% FIXED mortgage rate?! What you need to know to take advantage of the best deal EVER

And with prospects for my predicted 0.25% cut to 0.25% now made explicit by Carney's statements, what next for housing? Clearly, I am expecting a boom in north east London where I have purchased, due to Lea Valley lines coming under London Overground in just three months time, plus Crossrail 2 announcements soon, likely four tracking on the West Anglia Mainline to Stansted and a new Stratford to Angel Road railway. Crossrail 1 will also shift money towards Redbridge, Havering and Dagenham. So the big boom now is overspill from bloated prime London into the forgotten suburbs that peaked out previously just before World War II, when London reached its previous peak population. Now with news that immigration has soared some 50% (official numbers only), it starts to get interesting.

Posted by libertas @ 12:11 AM 8 Comments

Government FLS boost beginning to wane?

This is money: Is property still a safe bet? Confidence in rising house prices at lowest ebb since summer of 2013, survey shows

Confidence that house prices will continue their upward momentum in the coming months has fallen to its lowest level since June 2013, a study has found. While 60 per cent of Britons surveyed in January expect average property values to be higher in a year's time, eight per cent believe prices will fall, the Halifax report shows. The overall balance of 52 per cent who expect prices to rise is the lowest since the summer of 2013, just before property values rocketed.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:26 AM 2 Comments

Explains UK ''low unemployment'' figures

Telegraph: Zero-hours contracts 'save UK from eurozone levels of unemployment'

Business groups defend companies who use zero-hour contracts after new figures reveal 697,000 people in the UK are on them

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:00 AM 5 Comments

Triple-lock vote guarantee

Torygraph: Pensioners are now richer than the rest and we should celebrate that

What explains the catch-up of pensioners? Over the long run, the two big factors have been growing private pension entitlements and increases in state support. For the past 30 years, successive generations reaching retirement have tended to have bigger private pension pots than the last, helping to push up incomes in later life. To a large extent, this is due to the rise of occupational pensions – which have been made substantially less generous for current workers.

Posted by sibley's b'stard child @ 10:54 AM 20 Comments

Someone's been reading this site again

Breitbart: THE INFLATION LIE - HOW IT WORKS AND HOW YOU'VE BEEN HOODWINKED

37 per cent of newly created money has gone into financial markets and 40 per cent into residential and commercial property. But, guess what? Financial markets and house prices are not included in CPI - so the effects of all that money creation is simply ignored, and the pockets of the few that operate in these sectors are lined. With stock, bond and London property prices all at record highs, for the Bank of England to be 'warning' about deflation is disingenuous.

Posted by frizzers @ 09:34 AM 6 Comments

Where you once saw Sloane, you now see Slav

Telegraph: Sloane Rangers are 'heading for extinction'

Even posh people are priced out. Did anyone notice that our houses are bought by people from the very same countries that are causing us problems politically and economically? Russia the big obvious one. So, beware, the pitchforks are coming. Unless this stops. And we must make sure it stops.

Posted by sneaker @ 10:27 PM 5 Comments

Tax it and prices will fall

The New York Times: A High-End Property Collapse in Singapore

Singapore finally took steps to cool its overheated property market. The article presents this as a negative but it's actually a positive. Government revenues have obviously increased, though the reporter didn't bother to investigate this, and prices have been slashed to more reasonable levels so that the locals can actually afford to live there instead of foreigners looking for "Stash Pads" (The name given to NYC ultra-expensive condos by NY Magazine in an article by the same name). While speculator/owners and banks have suffered, the Singapore People will ultimately benefit. Of course, it would be better if the property tax was only on Land, not on the buildings.

Posted by pete green @ 10:19 PM 4 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £262,000 N/A 10.50 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Jun 14 £268,637 0.70 9.60 CrossThis monthN/A11/07/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 14 £183,462 0.60 8.80 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
8.1609/07/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 14 N/A 0.57 9.56 Cross N/A N/A 15/07/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jul 14 N/A 0.10 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 25/07/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 14 £188,949 0.10 10.60 TickThis monthN/A31/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £270,159 0.80 6.50 Tick£272,275
(Jun 14)
0.7821/07/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £492,000 N/A N/A 20.10 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q2 14 £330,315 N/A N/A 15.90 CrossThis quarterN/A04/07/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 14 £400,404 N/A 7.60 25.80 CrossThis quarterN/A02/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £587,174 0.40 N/A 13.90 Tick£592,763
(May 14)
0.9421/07/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive