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Luminaries Rethink Housing Bubbles - Authors & Cato Institute
  Luminaries Rethink Housing Bubbles     vid & podcast   ...

Uk’S Property Notspots Are Named
Seen some of these Home.co.uk charts down the years - 'Real yield' - but can nev...

Britain To Repay £2Bn First World War Debt
The UK is taking steps to repay the £2bn debt it originally borrowed to fi...

Milibust - The Ultimate Social Outcast
After his Bacon sandwich moment, I didn't think things could get worse for the a...

Atom Bank
Likely to shake things up ? Online only new bank. (I know - probably not)...

John Maynard Keynes Is The Economist The World Needs Now
#r=rss     Is there a doctor in the house? The global economy is fail...

Shadow Banking Grows To $75 Trillion Industry, Fsb Says
    The shadow banking industry grew by $5 trillion to about $75 tri...

Shared Ownership, It's The Way Forward
Sold into slavery   Thought I would share this brief exchange from Twitter....

The Really Scary Thing Is There Are Now No Kids Trick Or Treating In My Suburban Street
Writer laments the fact there are no kids in his street anymore because families...

Dave: I Want Interest Rates To Stay At Rock Bottom Forever
Perpetual emergency? Sounds about right.   David Cameron has said it ...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Friday, Oct 31 2014 Add a News Blog Article

China property market the one to watch (for now)

Investment week: Happy Halloween: Five scary charts from M&G's Bond Vigilantes

You may see some scary sights this Halloween night, but none as terrifying as these global economic statistics. M&G's Bond Vigilantes have put together five scary charts guaranteed to make your hair stand on end, which they have labelled 'not for the fainthearted'.

Posted by jack c @ 11:35 AM 3 Comments

The Fat Man Tries Again

Kentonline: Fergus and Judith Wilson to launch Maidstone High Flyers Business Club

Property tycoons Fergus and Judith Wilson may be selling off their 1,000-home empire but they cannot help dipping into the market. Mr Wilson – who reportedly was buying a house a day in the early 2000s – admitted he is still buying houses and bought one as recently as last week. Mr Wilson – who lives in Boughton Monchelsea, Maidstone – was speaking after he was spotted walking around the Kent 2020 Start Up Live exhibition at Kent Showground, Detling, last week. He said: “My wife and I have been involved in lots of business clubs. They are basically networking clubs. “It will cost £50 for the lunch and the speakers and if they turn up and don’t get £50 of business out of it, then they shouldn’t be coming.”

Posted by khards @ 09:21 AM 5 Comments

Renter votes not required, thank you

Telegraph: David Cameron: I want interest rates to stay at rock bottom for ever

'David Cameron has said it would be "lovely" for interest rates to remain at historic lows "forever" because it will allow families "to buy the homes they can afford". The Prime Minister said that Britain’s low interest rates are "good news" because it has made owning a home more affordable. He agreed with a voter who told him that a rise in rates could make life "very hard" for homeowners.' This is a taste of what we can look forward to for the next general election.

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:26 AM 10 Comments

If coffee price increases slowed down would we cheer or cry?

BBC: Housing market is losing momentum, Nationwide says

Nationwide said house price inflation slowed to 9.0% in October on an annual basis, down from 9.4% in September. Despite the gradual slowdown in house price growth, the broader economic outlook remains positive, Nationwide said. Check out the affordability calculator.

Posted by alan @ 11:55 AM 1 Comments

Is a worldwide housing crash going to happen in 2015

Zero Hedge: Mortgage purchase applications plunge to 19 year low

In America mortgage applications are at a 19 year low. In China the property market is on the brink of collapse. One of these superpowers has gorged on massive quantitative easing for 6 years the other has gorged on massive infrastructure spending in the same time frame, both based on funny money to keep the pack of cards together. It always used to be said if America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold. If China and America sneeze at the same time, I wonder just what sort of cold is coming our way.

Posted by britishblue @ 04:43 PM 6 Comments

BOE due to copy FED's policies, economists confused by BOE propaganda

Reuters: First Bank of England hike still seen in first quarter

A rise in British interest rates in the first quarter of 2015 is now much less certain, according to a Reuters poll in which almost half the economists questioned thought the hike would come later in the year. A wafer-thin majority, 28 of 54 economists, stuck to their calls for the initial hike to come in the first quarter. In an Oct. 1 poll 54 of 60 economists had expected the Bank of England to act before April. British rates have been at an all-time low of 0.5 percent since the depths of the financial crisis in early 2009, but with the economy exhibiting some of the healthiest growth rates among developed nations, economists in Reuters polls since June have been targeting the first three months of 2015 for the first rise in Bank Rate.

Posted by khards @ 03:52 PM 2 Comments

May Poppins Quite; coming to a house near you soon

Www.theatermania.com/: Frozen's Kristen Bell Is Surprisingly Political as Mary Poppins

Can't wait for another fantastic US import. Wage inflation ; LOL.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:26 PM 0 Comments

Back to pre-boom prices based on borrowing

Reuters: UK mortgage approvals fall to lowest since July 2013 in September

British lenders approved the fewest mortgages in more than a year last month, as evidence mounts that a big rebound in housing market activity over the past year has come off the boil. The Bank of England said mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to 61,267 in September, down from 64,054 in August -- a bigger fall than economists had forecast though similar to the decline reported last week by the British Bankers' Association.

Posted by khards @ 10:16 AM 1 Comments

Singapore's prices continue to decline

Bloomberg: Singapore’s private home prices fell 0.7 percent in the three months ended September

Singapore’s private home prices fell 0.7 percent in the three months ended September, the fourth quarter-on-quarter drop, bringing the slide in the past year to almost 4 percent. “There is some distance to go in achieving a meaningful correction, after the sharp run-up in prices in recent years,” Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore’s finance minister, said in a speech yesterday.

Posted by khards @ 09:01 AM 0 Comments

Global property slump accelerates

Zerohedge: Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline For 4 Months In A Row

August Case-Shiller data for August confirmed once again that US housing is rapidly slowing down, when the Top 20 Composite Index (Seasonally Adjusted) posted another decline in August, its fourth in a row, declining by -0.15% and missing expectations of a modest 0.2% rebound (following last month's -0.5%) decline.

Posted by khards @ 03:07 PM 6 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £262,000 N/A 10.50 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Jun 14 £268,637 0.70 9.60 CrossThis monthN/A11/07/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 14 £183,462 0.60 8.80 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
8.1609/07/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 14 N/A 0.57 9.56 Cross N/A N/A 15/07/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jul 14 N/A 0.10 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 25/07/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 14 £188,949 0.10 10.60 TickThis monthN/A31/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £270,159 0.80 6.50 Tick£272,275
(Jun 14)
0.7821/07/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £492,000 N/A N/A 20.10 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q2 14 £330,315 N/A N/A 15.90 CrossThis quarterN/A04/07/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 14 £400,404 N/A 7.60 25.80 CrossThis quarterN/A02/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £587,174 0.40 N/A 13.90 Tick£592,763
(May 14)
0.9421/07/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive