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Debt Service Ratios
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  " US economy grows by 4% beating expectations" ...

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"the Provision Of Banking Services… Now Falls Outside Of Our Risk Appetite".
  "the provision of banking services… now falls outside of our risk ...

Exclusive: Labour Under Fire As It Emerges Harriet Harman 'underpays' Her Trainee
    Former Cabinet Minister Ms Harman is advertising for a trainee c...

In The Spot Light.
I don't know if this abuses HPC rules, but I've seen similar posts. I went to se...

85 Super Wealthy People Have More Money Than The Poorest 3.5 Billion Combined
    The global economy is structured to systematically funnel wealth...

New Development Price Falls Herefordshire
I mentioned this development on the HtB thread - Persimmon seemed in a bit of a ...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Wednesday, Jul 30 2014 Add a News Blog Article

When the going gets tough......the regulator caves in

Citywire: Banks to approve in-house advisers under FCA plans

Financial advisers at banks will no longer be approved by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) but by their employers on an annual basis under the regulator's proposals.................This would include consumer-facing roles including retail investment advisers and mortgage advisers, it said. Comments section say's it all !

Posted by jack c @ 12:53 PM 0 Comments

UK Government sold their citizens down the river over housing

Bloomberg.com: Hong Kong Popping Housing Bubbles London Can’t Handle

While such actions may seem contradictory to the cities’ stated free-market principles, “affordable housing is part of the legitimacy of any government, and government has a role to play in intervening in the market in periods where there are extreme circumstances,” said Michael Klibaner, who heads Greater China research at real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. in Hong Kong.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:57 AM 3 Comments

Maybe should have stopped pumping it up!

Independent: Mortgages: 'Homeowners could trade down to shared ownership to defuse rate rise timebomb'

Homebuyers should be allowed to “trade down” to a shared ownership deal so they can stay in their home and avoid it being repossessed, the Resolution Foundation think tank has proposed.

Posted by happy mondays @ 09:17 AM 10 Comments

Interest not rising

Guardian: Keep UK interest rate low for now, IMF tells Bank of England

Only raise IR if house prices keep going up? And oh look, house prices are allegedly dropping :- http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jul/28/average-house-prices-stall-1m-plus-properties-england-wales So that's OK then? I swear the game is rigged more than a LIBOR call.

Posted by delibes @ 09:15 PM 1 Comments

The next leg down begins

Telegraph: The pound is overvalued, warns the IMF

The IMF has warned that the pound is overvalued by 5pc-10p, in an update of its wide-ranging annual assessment of Britain's economy. After depreciating by 23pc between 2007 and 2009, the real exchange rate has gradually appreciated, and this trend accelerated from the middle of 2013, the fund said, as it praised the Bank of England for keeping interest rates low and welcomed signs that Britain's surprisingly strong economic recovery is broadening. "Wages are growing very slowly and, although output is beginning to pick up, the recovery is still at an early stage and there is still a lot of slack in the economy,"

Posted by khards @ 06:34 PM 2 Comments

Hope not!

Bloomberg: Housing Bubble May Pop Entire U.K. Economy

You may not want to bring this up at any London dinner parties, but there are tentative signs that the bubble in U.K. housing prices that's helped boost the economic recovery by underpinning consumer confidence may be running out of puff. Given the British obsession with home ownership, any evidence of real-estate deflation will complicate the Bank of England's efforts to nudge borrowing costs higher.

Posted by peter rocker @ 03:38 PM 2 Comments

HPC started 2 months back

Evening Standard: House prices in London slow to a halt as 'silly season' ends

As per Land Registry, hosue prices stopped esing in June. Since they have a 2-3 month lag..

Posted by yes @ 02:56 PM 1 Comments

The Problem With Getting On The Property Ladder

KIS Bridging Loans Blog: UK's Property Ladder Woes Revealed

After the property market crashed during the 2008 recession, homeowners have been allowed a sigh of relief recently as things appear to be on the up again; but what about first time buyers? A combination of rising house prices and lacklustre savings rates has meant many of those wanting to get their foot on the property ladder have got to make some sacrifices.

Posted by pete finnegan @ 02:18 PM 0 Comments

Housing crash now on

Dailymail: Confidence in market plung

This bubble is starting to burst even before rates rise..this bubble especially in London is so big I can see 60-70% falls being headline news for many years

Posted by taffee @ 06:36 AM 17 Comments

An extra 2.7 million to be housed from 2008 to 2014 and lower income per capita to pay for it

Wall St Journal: U.K. Recovery Flattered by Population Growth

After the IMF raised its U.K. growth forecasts to 3.2% on friday output per capita is still some way below 2008 levels, the U.K.’s performance by this metric does not compare well with most other developed economies. The UK has seen strong population growth adding another 2.7 million people to the books from 2008 to 2014. During this period U.K. GDP per capita measured in purchasing power standards adjusted for differences in price levels fell from 114% of the EU average to 106%, a decline of eight percentage points. For the crisis-stricken euro zone, the decline was from 109% to 108%, with Germany GDP per capita rising to 124% of the average from 116% with only Spain experiencing a similar relative decline in income per person to the UK.

Posted by enuii @ 11:06 AM 0 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Mar 14 £252,000 N/A 8.00 Tick£254,000
(Jan 14)
0.7920/05/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Apr 14 £263,113 0.50 7.30 CrossThis monthN/A09/05/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Apr 14 £177,648 0.20 8.50 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
11.0708/05/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) May 14 N/A 1.40 9.20 Cross N/A N/A 14/05/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Apr 14 N/A 0.60 6.00 Cross N/A N/A 28/04/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report 28/07/14 Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Apr 14 £183,577 1.20 10.90 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
1.3301/05/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index May 14 £272,003 3.60 8.90 TickThis monthN/A19/05/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Mar 14 £459,000 N/A N/A 17.00 TickThis monthN/A20/05/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q1 14 £319,894 N/A N/A 15.50 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
0.3004/04/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report 28/07/14 Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 14 £362,699 N/A 5.30 18.20 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index May 14 £592,763 3.30 N/A 16.30 TickThis monthN/A19/05/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive