The highlights on this website

Have your say in our popular discussion forum
Check out the latest House Price Statistics
See the predictions for UK House Prices
Read economic papers on the House Price Crash subject

'Must read/watch' external links

Don't believe the Estate Agents! Visit OurProperty.co.uk to find out the actual sold house prices direct from the Land Registry database
See real price reductions in your area, visit www.propertysnake.co.uk
UK Property Podcast: how low will it go? (mp3 - 13.6Mb - 59 minutes)

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An overview of what's happening with house prices in your area with the BBC
Forgotten the last crash? Watch the spitting image video on YouTube
The subprime crisis expertly explained by Bird and Fortune on YouTube
George Soros speaks about a hard landing for US house prices on YouTube
Visit the first-time buyer campaigning website www.pricedout.org.uk
Moneyweek: The trouble with interest-only mortgages
UK Housing - Moon-Bound or Pear-Shaped?
ABN Amro report - "...the UK housing market could be more vulnerable to a correction than the US" (PDF - 162kb)
Chris Parker's excellent house price crash flash movie

Thursday, Jul 24, 2008

How to get a job in the city?

Wizard Of Id: 29 June 2008

I hope you'll forgive me for this light-hearted froth posting but it makes a change from the usual gloom and doom.

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:15 PM 1 Comments

Ex-Foxtons boss recommends to sell

London Evening Standard: My property predictions by Foxtons £370m guru

"What must it be like - to collect £370 million, personally, for selling your business? More pertinently, try to imagine how it feels to know that when you sold was right at the very peak of the market - another few weeks later and it crashed."

Posted by doomwatch @ 08:25 PM 3 Comments

Congress repealed the law against usury. It was done in 1980 by a Democratic Congress, Democratic President.

Alternet: Nightmare on Wall Street: Washington Can't Bail out the Sea of Red Ink

Moyers: Usury? Greider: Usury, to be clear about it, is rich people taking advantage of poor people by lending them money on terms that are sure to make them fail. All three of the great religions, Judaism, Christianity, Islam, had a moral prohibition against usury because they recognized that society can't function like that. People of great wealth and their institutions like banks naturally have the power to overwhelm people of lesser means. And you can't allow that in a decent society. It won't survive. Moyers: Where were the gatekeepers? Where were the watchdogs? Why did it take the Fed so long to put an end to predatory practices? Greider: To make the story overly crude, Congress repealed the law against usury.

Posted by malct @ 07:38 PM 3 Comments

Summer washout?

Bloomberg.com: U.K. Homebuilding Rally `Overdone,' Cazenove Says

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- A recent rally in U.K. homebuilder shares has been ``overdone'' and the stocks may fall back during the summer amidst further negative housing data and possible land writedowns, analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove Ltd. said.

Posted by ash4781 @ 07:29 PM 0 Comments

Dow plummets more than 150 points as dour housing and employment reports

CNN: Wall Street tumbles on economic jitters

"Investors are concerned over the weaker economic data that's coming through Thursday," said Stone. "With more jobless claims, people can't pay their bills, which means more write-offs for companies."

Posted by mark @ 06:54 PM 2 Comments

Almost half of those households are considered to be in severe mortgage stress - that is, struggling to manage their level of debt and meet home loan repayments - the report says.

The Age: Mortgage stress tipped to hit 1m by Xmas Higher interest rates are tipped to force more than a million Australian households into a state of mortgage stress by the end of the year, a new report says.

The government launched its National Rental Affordability Scheme which aims to increase the supply of affordable rental dwellings by 50,000, and possibly 100,000 by 2012.

Posted by big chris @ 06:33 PM 0 Comments

Details of today’s housing bill by Dr. Ron Paul:

Goldseek.com: Ron Paul on the Housing Bill 7/23/08 - "The Mother of All Bailouts"

$2.5B line of credit to the Treasury (Fannie & Freddie – ‘F & F’) is now “open-ended” National Debt Ceiling Moved up $800 BILLION (buried in the bill) Treasuries have replaced gold and silver to back US Dollar

Posted by sold out @ 06:15 PM 0 Comments

Keeping secrets, telling lies

UK Bubble: More post-NRK bad ideas from the FSA

The FSA want to keep us from knowing who its secretly funded. In fact, it is a poorly conceived idea with some seriously perverse incentives.

Posted by inflationwatch @ 06:07 PM 1 Comments

If you did not know it before, you do now. The entire US banking system is insolvent.

321gold: You Know The Banking System Is Unsound When...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock Jul 24, 2008 1. Paulson appears on Face The Nation and says "Our banking system is a safe and a sound one." If the banking system was safe and sound, everyone would know it (or at least think it). There would be no need to say it. 2. Paulson says the list of troubled banks "is a very manageable situation". The reality is there are 90 banks on the list of problem banks. Indymac was not one of them until a month before it collapsed. How many other banks will magically appear on the list a month before they collapse?

Posted by malct @ 05:13 PM 0 Comments

Comedy Club - Peter Bolton King returns with a string of outrageous one liners

Mortgagestrategy: NAEA says government should learn from US mistakes

The National Association of Estate Agents has urged the government to learn from the US government's mistakes and act now over the UK housing market slump. Peter Bolton King, chief executive of the NAEA, says "the housing market is the pillar of the UK economy" and that it will require creative thinking to ease pressures and ensure the downturn does not worsen. Bolton King says: “The first thing the government could do is introduce a tax break, such as abolishing Stamp Duty for first -time buyers and moving the thresholds up to ease pressure throughout the whole housing market giving people a reason and incentive to come back.

Posted by jack c @ 04:54 PM 9 Comments

Add a News Blog Article

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	May 08	£218,151	N/A	3.70	£221,758 (Jan 08)	1.63	08/07/2008
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics)	Jun 08	£227,344	0.60	1.20	£231,595 (Feb 08)	1.84	10/07/2008 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index	Jun 08	£180,344	2.00	6.10	£199,770 (Aug 07)	9.72	10/07/2008 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales)	Jul 08	N/A	0.50	0.20	N/A	N/A	14/07/2008 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey	Jun 08	N/A	1.00	3.20	N/A	N/A	30/06/2008
Land Registry Monthly Report	May 08	£183,266	0.00	1.80	£186,045 (Jan 08)	1.49	27/06/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Jun 08	£172,415	0.90	6.30	£186,044 (Oct 07)	7.33	01/07/2008 (PDF)
Prime Location House Price Index	Apr 08	£548,084	0.40	6.90	£548,405 (Jul 07)	0.06	No date given (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Jul 08	£235,219	1.80	2.00	£242,500 (May 08)	3.00	21/07/2008 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website	Period covered	Average house price	Monthly change (%)	Quarterly change (%)	Annual change (%)	Peak average house price	Change since peak (%)	Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index	May 08	£348,651	N/A	N/A	7.80	£351,096 (Jan 08)	0.70	08/07/2008
Halifax House Price Index	Q1 08	£304,781	N/A	1.60	2.00	£320,847 (Q3 07)	5.01	18/04/2008 (WORD)
Land Registry Monthly Report	May 08	£354,714	0.80	N/A	6.90	£357,976 (Jan 08)	0.91	27/06/2008 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index	Q2 08	£285,568	N/A	3.80	2.30	£303,739 (Q4 07)	5.98	01/07/2008 (PDF)
Prime Location House Price Index	Apr 08	£1,337,319	0.60	N/A	11.70	This month	N/A	No date given (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index	Jul 08	£400,258	0.30	N/A	1.40	£412,731 (Nov 07)	3.02	21/07/2008 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

Source website	Analyst	Photo	Date prediction made	Amount predicted	Region	Time Period	Notes
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2010-2013	Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Allied Surveyors	Grant Robertson	N/A	Jan 2008	5-7 %	Scotland	2008	Amidst all the doom and gloom, Allied Surveyors are expecting Scottish house prices to increase above inflation in 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Nationwide believes Scotland will be the strongest performing region next year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	4%	Scotland	2008	Savills also thinks prices in Scotland will rise by 4 per cent in 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Scotland	2008	Hometrack is forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Scotland for 2008.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	Northern Ireland	2008	Hometrack is also forecasting price rises of 3 per cent.in Northern Ireland for 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Dec 2007	3%	London Prime	2008	Knight Frank's view is that prime London will cease to lead the UK market for the first time for two years.
Hometrack	Richard Donnell	N/A	Aug 2007	1-2 %	UK	2008	Hometrack sees near stagnation in the UK housing market for 2008.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	1%	London	2008	Nationwide is forecasting 1 per cent growth in London house prices this year.
Savills	Lucian Cook		Dec 2007	1%	Wales	2008	Savills is forecasting a slight increase of 1 per cent this year.
Lombard Street Research	Diana Choyleva		Oct 2007	0%	UK	2008	Ms Choyleva believes that the recent Northern Rock crisis will be the final straw for the UK housing market.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Nov 2007	0%	UK	2008	Britain's biggest building society predicts stagnation and says that economic tailwinds will turn into headwinds.
Rightmove.co.uk	Miles Shipside		Dec 2007	0%	UK	2008	Miles Shipside expects a "period of stagnation" for prices in 2008, with most sellers still able to decide whether or not to drop their asking price.
United Trust Bank	Roger Tidyman	N/A	Jan 2008	0%	UK	2008	Roger Tidyman expects modest price falls in the first half of the year with some recovery in the second half of 2008 resulting in flat overall growth for 2008.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	1-3 %	UK	2009	Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Charcol.co.uk	Ray Boulger		Dec 2007	2%	UK	2008	Mortgage broker John Charcol predicts that property transactions will fall by 15 per cent in 2008, gross mortgage lending will fall from £360bn to £320bn but house prices will only fall by 2%.
CEBR	N/A	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5% during 2008.
Knight Frank	Liam Bailey	N/A	Apr 2008	3%	UK	2008	Knight Frank has revised its forecast from a rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.
UBS	Amit Kara & Sunil Kapadia	N/A	Jan 2008	3%	UK	2008	UBS Economists say that the key issue for the housing market is "whether there will be a slow burn in house prices or whether there is scope for a hard landing.
BBC	Evan Davis		Dec 2007	5-10 %	UK	2008	Evan Davis expects that house prices will continue to fall, by 5-10% over the year. He also doesn't rule out the possibility of the falls being much bigger.
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Oct 2007	5%	UK	2008	Capital Economics see the economy slowing in 2008 and have cut their forecast yet again.
Deloitte	Roger Bootle		Jan 2008	5%	UK	2008	Deloitte’s quarterly economic review predicts that house prices will slump by 5% this year.
Nationwide	Fionnuala Earley		Dec 2007	5%	Northern Ireland	2008	Nationwide is expecting Northern Ireland to be the weakest part of the country during 2008.
RICS	Simon Rubinsohn		May 2008	5%	UK	2008	Another revised forecast from RICS.
UK Government	Caroline Flint		May 2008	5-10 %	UK	2008	Caroline Flint, the Housing minister, inadvertently revealed that house price could fall up to 10% this year "at best".
Savills	Yolande Barnes		Apr 2008	6-25 %	UK	2008-2009	A revised forecast downwards from Savills.
Council of Mortgage Lenders	Michael Coogan		May 2008	7%	UK	2008	A substantial revised forecast from CML predicting a 7% fall in UK house prices this year.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Apr 2008	7%	UK	2008	A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.
Jones Lang LaSalle	James Thomas		May 2008	7-9 %	UK	2008	In a new forecast for the residential market, the estate agency predicts that the economy will progressively weaken over the course of the year.
Deloitte	Roger Bootle		Jan 2008	8%	UK	2009	Deloitte’s quarterly economic review predicts that house prices will slump by 8% next year.
Invesco Perpetual	Neil Woodford		Jan 2008	8-10 %	UK	2008	Neil Woodford, goes further than his prediction to say that areas which have seen a concentration of speculative development and buying, such as regional metropolitan centres, could be subject to much sharper falls.
Global Insight	Howard Archer		Apr 2008	9%	UK	2009	A revised prediction downwards by Global Insight.
Halifax	Martin Ellis	N/A	Jun 2008	9%	UK	2008	Halifax had earlier predicted that the decline would be less severe.
Institute of Economic Affairs	Philip Booth	N/A	Jan 2008	10%	UK	2008	Mr Booth says that more falls are possible after 2008 but also says that this should not affect the economy greatly as long as monetary policy is conducted appropriately.
brightsale.co.uk	Jeremy Howard	N/A	Apr 2008	12%	UK	2008-2013	Brightsale's prediction is inline with the property derivatives market.
FirstRung.co.uk	Paul Holmes	N/A	Nov 2007	12%	UK	2008	The mortgage broker, firstrung said that predictions of gentle slowdowns were off the mark.
MarketOracle.co.uk	Nadeem Walayat	N/A	Aug 2007	15%	UK	2007-2009	Market Oracle believe that the crash will be led by the buy to let sector jumping ship.
Fool.co.uk	David Kuo	N/A	Dec 2007	20%	UK	2008	David Kuo believes that the average price of a house could fall by up to a fifth to £157,290 in 2008.
London School of Economics	John Van Reenen		Jan 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
Morgan Stanley	David Miles		Mar 2008	20%	UK	2008-2009	David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Boom Bust	Fred Harrison		Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2012	Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of Economics	Willem Buiter	N/A	Jan 2008	30%	UK	2008-2009	Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Numis Securities	James Hamilton	N/A	Mar 2008	30%	UK	Not stated	James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Capital Economics	Roger Bootle		Jun 2008	35%	UK	2008-2010	Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Housepricecrash.co.uk	Jonathan Davis		Sep 2007	35%	UK	2008-2012	In our view, history and economics leads us to believe that the boom is over and there will be a gradual and cumulative fall annually from this point forward.

Predictions archive