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Latest: House Price Crash News

Sunday, Sep 21 2014 Add a News Blog Article

All going to plan

Telegraph: The average working life isn't long enough to pay for a house

Also this week, the National Housing Federation produced research showing that two in three first-time buyers now got help from their parents, up from one in three five years ago. Of today’s children, it predicted that only those from the “wealthiest families will be able to buy a home”. It also poured cold water on any claims by today’s older generation that buying a house was as difficult when they were young. The ratio between property prices and wages has shifted so enormously that house buying today is as difficult for buyers with two wages as it was 35 years ago for a single borrower on just their own income.

Posted by quiet guy @ 11:05 AM 9 Comments

Could Property-Price Pumping become illegal?

BBC News: 'Pyramid scheme' operation sees six women convicted

What these women did was clearly wrong: they were using misleading promises and an unsustainable financial model to make thousands of pounds. Victims lost money (although many victims were looking to get rich quick, so sympathy might be limited). Of course, this is a world away from the property market, where banks and mortgage companies use misleading promises and an unsustainable financial model to make billions. Unlike a real ponzi scheme, the property boom depends on ever-increasing amounts of money, invested to make gains, and sustainable as long as ever-increasing amounts of money keep coming in. Oh, hang on a minute.... But seriously, is there a way the new anti-ponzi/pyramid scheme laws could be brought against part of the property cabal?

Posted by smiley @ 04:52 PM 1 Comments

Scottish Independence Referendum - Possible Effects on Commercial Property

Fisher Jones Greenwood: Scottish Independence Referendum - Possible Effects on Commercial Property

As Scotland prepares to go to the polls on September 18, ex-president of the British Property Federation David Hunter has warned that a Yes vote could have a ‘drastic, negative impact’ on commercial property values in Scotland.

Posted by mattfjg @ 02:01 PM 0 Comments

MoneyWeek article on current slow-down

MoneyWeek: House prices: pausing for breath or the start of something big?

Is Britain's summer house-price slowdown just a pause before the next leg higher, or is it the start of something more ominous?

Posted by andrew.williams @ 11:03 AM 2 Comments

Does this tell us that the Euro ix doomed?

Zero Hedge: Germany Issues 2Y Note At Record Low Yield Of -0.07%

As noted previously, BOE cannot raise rates whilst German rates are raging towards negative. Do these bond rates suggest that the Eurozone is collapsing? Investors betting on German Exit? If the Euro does collapse and Scotland votes No, where does Ireland turn for support? Britain paid £7bn towards the last Irish bailout, ECB will be too busy this time around, if it still exists. I feel that 18th September, if Scotland votes no, will be the low water mark for the UK. With even most N.Irish Catholics pro Union now, we could well see EIRE return to the fold, under a very new form of Union, a Federal United Kingdom, where Westminster acts much in the way of Washington, managing currency, defence, international treaties and various other services if and when the States need or request it.

Posted by libertas @ 05:40 PM 14 Comments

UK inflation rate down to 1.5%

BBC: UK inflation rate down to 1.5% as food and petrol costs fall

"It means the Bank of England remains under little pressure to raise interest rates in order to keep CPI inflation at or below its target rate of 2%."

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:28 PM 10 Comments

World depression deepens, but cheap cash continues to flood into UK housing

BBC News: Six regions hit new house price peak, says ONS

Six regions of the UK now have average house prices higher than their pre-financial crisis peak after values rose again in July, figures show. The East Midlands, West Midlands and South West of England have joined London, the East of England and the South East of England in rising above the peak of late 2007 and early 2008. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said UK property prices were up 11.7% in the year to the end of July.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:57 AM 13 Comments

BBC's latest answer to a UK housing shortgage

BBC: Download, print, build your Martian home in 24 hours

"Imagine opening the curtains in the morning and instead of grey skies and rain, looking out at a rust-coloured rocky panorama" The year is 2045. You have woken up on Mars. Colonising Mars could happen sooner than you think. Elon Musk plans to build a city there. Nasa wants to send people by 2035. Then there's the Mars One mission, Big Brother for the slightly suicidal.

Posted by jack c @ 11:42 AM 0 Comments

Permanent asset & currency devaluation relative to rUK will occur

Scotland Herald Tribune: This Scottish paper suggests the falls are short term. Reality is that Scotland needs permanent deva

This Scottish paper suggests the falls are short term. Reality is that Scotland needs permanent devaluation in all assets and currency if it is to go it alone, just as should have been the case in Greece. "Yes vote could see a sharp fall in the average house price in Scotland in the "short-term", property pricing website Zoopla has suggested. Scottish independence could lead to another UK housing market crash that wipes £31,000 off the average house price in Scotland, causing as big a crash as the 17.5% fall seen during 2008, leading property website Zoopla has warned."

Posted by libertas @ 10:30 PM 3 Comments

Zoopla predicts repeat of 2008 17.5% crash if Scots go solo

Huffington Post: Scottish Independence "Could cause house price crash"

Scottish independence could lead to another UK housing market crash that wipes £31,000 off the average house price in Scotland, causing as big a crash as the 17.5% fall seen during 2008, leading property website Zoopla has warned. Having mortgages issued in a foreign country, potentially in a foreign currency, with huge currency risks, could combine with reduced competition and higher costs combined with the lack of Bank of England lender of last resort facilities to create a perfect storm. Clearly, a housing and construction slowdown could cause havoc with tax receipts, damaging Salmond's ability to fund his promises.

Posted by libertas @ 10:23 PM 3 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £262,000 N/A 10.50 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Jun 14 £268,637 0.70 9.60 CrossThis monthN/A11/07/2014 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 14 £183,462 0.60 8.80 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
8.1609/07/2014 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 14 N/A 0.57 9.56 Cross N/A N/A 15/07/2014 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Jul 14 N/A 0.10 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 25/07/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £172,011 0.00 6.40 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
7.5428/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 14 £188,949 0.10 10.60 TickThis monthN/A31/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £270,159 0.80 6.50 Tick£272,275
(Jun 14)
0.7821/07/2014 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index May 14 £492,000 N/A N/A 20.10 TickThis monthN/A15/07/2014
Halifax House Price Index Q2 14 £330,315 N/A N/A 15.90 CrossThis quarterN/A04/07/2014 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jun 14 £437,608 0.10 N/A 16.40 Tick£439,719
(May 14)
0.4828/07/2014 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 14 £400,404 N/A 7.60 25.80 CrossThis quarterN/A02/07/2014 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jul 14 £587,174 0.40 N/A 13.90 Tick£592,763
(May 14)
0.9421/07/2014 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive