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Annecdotal - Steel Industry And House Prices
Met with my wife's old school friend (& her husband and daughter)   1. She ...

Have Tories Spotted A Change In Public Sentiment On Btl?
Each year 400,000 plus 18 year olds go to university   Each year something ...

Pearson Did Things By The Textbook But The Customers Had Ripped It Up
    The US Federal Reserve keeps on putting off raising interest rat...

London Basement Causes Destruction Of A Lovely House - (Merged Topics)
If you're going to dig out a basement best be careful about it     Lu...

Botched Refurb Home Scheme Wastes £5M. How?
  Earlier this year, AAAW Ltd, a company Rossendale Council had brought in...

Moneyweek Article About The Btl Changes
  Some interesting analysis. A quote from the article;     A pa...

"the Modern Method Of Auction" Anyone Heard Of It Before?
The Modern Method of Auction is a flexible buyer friendly method of purchase. U...

Letters To The Chancellor
Lots of LOLs in here:   Letters: Osborne’s lurch to the Left puzzles ...

"accidental Landlords" And The 3% Surcharge
What will happen when someone buys another house to live in, but decide to rent ...

The Velocity Problem - Not Going Away Any Time Soon
  Well worth a read. Finishes noting that without QE4 liquidity will conti...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Saturday, Nov 28 2015 Add a News Blog Article

In Richard Dyson's dream world, tenants prefer amateur landlords to companies

Torygraph: Annihilation of buy-to-let and the politics of envy

"But the most telling point is that there is no such vilification of corporate buy-to-let." I'm like a broken record here but no one in their right mind would prefer to rent from an amateur instead of a professionally run company. And since UK renters get the worst value for money in the world, can this guy seriously be surprised that BTL is despised? If our bread cost more than anywhere in the world and was stale, people would not be pleased with the UK's bakers...

Posted by mombers @ 12:06 PM 3 Comments

Who else are landlords going to vote for? Excellent point from John Stepek

Moneyweek: Political risk and investing lesson number one: don’t be an easy target

"Better yet – who else are these disenfranchised landlords going to vote for? Anyone think they’ll get a fairer hearing from Jeremy Corbyn, and his wee red book? Didn’t think so. In short, you can whack them all you want at very little cost to your own base, and with the potential of big gains from others who might not traditionally have voted for you. It’s brutal political calculus." Will be fascinating to see how this all pans out. I used to think that BTL wasn't too bad - renters use housing more efficiently than owner occupiers and BTL is taxed a bit. But the latter is not true in my opinion - tax collected from BTL is less than Housing Benefit paid to the industry... And everyone needs incentives to use housing efficiently, not just renters

Posted by mombers @ 01:31 PM 0 Comments

My heart is bleeding

Mail: Our buy-to-let dreams are in ruins!

Someone who buys a £500,000 second home will face a tax bill of £30,000 Experts said the move would ‘kill off’ property investment for savers

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:51 AM 6 Comments

Squeeze those evil property tycoons

BBC: Autumn Statement: Buy-to-let homes face higher stamp duty

I think they had got the air quotes in the wrong place. Maybe it should read. Priced out tenants reacted jubilently to the change, saying it would choke off "investment" in rented properties. After all most of the "investment" comes from their savings deposits in the banks and building societies.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 08:27 PM 2 Comments

A welcome change in policy

BBC News: Spending Review: George Osborne to pledge housing cash amid cuts

George Osborne is to set out government spending plans up to 2020 later, which will include billions of pounds in cuts but also new money for housebuilding. The Autumn Statement and Spending Review will detail £20bn of cuts to Whitehall budgets and £12bn to welfare. But the chancellor will pledge almost £7bn to make housebuilding a priority, with more than 400,000 "affordable homes" to be built in England.

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:14 AM 3 Comments

Interest-only a ticking debt timebomb

Business Insider: We'll all pay for the huge mistakes we're making in the UK housing market

>> "The Citizens Advice Bureau warned that 934,000 UK home owners have no plan for payong off the principal on their interest only mortgage. Britain could encounter the first round of these problem owners in 2017." Interest-only loans fuelled the 80s housing bubble, allowing borrowers to bid up prices more an the high interest rates would otherwise have allowed. While most of these price excesses were cleansed by 1996, the underlying debt is still out there, waiting to catch up with generation debt, most of whom are approaching retirement. Should be interesting. Maybe lenders will extend their loan terms?

Posted by debtserf @ 09:14 PM 7 Comments

The pigs start to squeal!

This is money: Hopes rise that top rate of stamp duty may be cut as sales of upmarket homes collapse

Tax experts believe the Chancellor has the chance to take action to cut the top rate of stamp duty this week citing a fall in tax revenues as sales of upmarket homes collapse.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:47 AM 12 Comments

Tory think-tank wants to shut stable door after horse is long gone

Guardian: Is it time to close the door to foreign buyers of British property?

It is a dramatic repudiation of decades of thinking in the Conservative party. These are the people who have, until now, equated rising house prices with wealth and prosperity, and who have profited enormously from buy-to-let and billions in foreign cash. But the Bow Group now recognises that Britain’s housing market is broken – and its prescription for reform may stagger traditional Tory supporters.

Posted by debtserf @ 08:16 AM 8 Comments

From the horses mouth

Daily mail: Nationwide boss says London prices could slam into reverse

Straight talk from a leading lender....this bubble is now so huge that when it bursts all hell will break loose. Don't forget London has over 25% of mortgage money held there add south east and I suspect near 50% of All mortgage money is held in a monster property bubble...and nationwide and other banks have been lending into it.

Posted by taffee @ 05:48 AM 0 Comments

Mortgage manipulation

Notayesmanseconomics's Blog: Can macroprudential policy control house prices?

Shaun Richards discusses the overall effect of MMR and the Funding for Lending Scheme. It's hard to see any sense or purpose in simultaneously trying to cool the mortgage market by MMR while at the same time, the "Bank of England still has its foot on the mortgage market pedal via the Funding for Lending Scheme." In the closing paragraph, Richards asserts that the UK financial regulators haven't really tried to control the mortgage market at all.

Posted by quiet guy @ 11:47 AM 0 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Aug 15 £284,000 N/A 5.20 TickThis monthN/A13/10/2015
LSL Property Services/Acadametrics Sep 15 £284,742 0.40 4.20 CrossThis monthN/A08/10/2015 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Mar 15 £192,970 0.40 8.10 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
3.4009/04/2015 (PDF) (England and Wales) Apr 15 N/A 0.90 6.50 Cross N/A N/A 14/04/2015 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Sep 14 N/A 0.00 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 26/09/2014
Land Registry Monthly Report Aug 15 £184,682 0.50 4.20 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
0.7328/09/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Mar 15 £189,454 0.10 5.10 TickThis monthN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £281,752 1.00 5.40 TickThis monthN/A16/03/2015 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
change (%)
change (%)
Annual change
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Aug 15 £522,000 N/A N/A 4.20 Tick£525,000
(Jul 15)
Halifax House Price Index Q4 14 £356,054 N/A N/A 14.50 CrossThis quarterN/A08/01/2015 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Aug 15 £493,026 1.70 N/A 6.60 TickThis monthN/A28/09/2015 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 15 £408,780 N/A 1.00 12.70 CrossThis quarterN/A02/04/2015 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Mar 15 £580,308 0.40 N/A 5.50 Tick£601,180
(Nov 14)
3.4716/03/2015 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 8%UK2014Tick
This growth is being driven by the acute imbalance between burgeoning buyer demand and sluggish supply with new instructions to estate agents close to stagnating.
RICSN/AN/ADec 2013 11%London2014Tick
It remains to be seen what impact the recently announced increase in capital gains tax for overseas vendors will have on the prime central London market.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession. HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive