OLDFTB
Jul 15 2008, 01:42 PM
Now below 11,000.
Whoda thought it?
deflation
Jul 15 2008, 01:52 PM
Have you got 'real-time' data access? The DOW information on the sites I usually visit still showing 11,055. Down 45 pts as the market opened though!
Edited: there it goes - 10,964!
contractor
Jul 15 2008, 01:56 PM
QUOTE (Stourbridge Baggie @ Jul 15 2008, 02:52 PM)

Have you got 'real-time' data access? The DOW information on the sites I usually visit still showing 11,055. Down 45 pts as the market opened though!
Edited: there it goes - 10,964!
google finance is real time
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=.dji&a...mp;meta=hl%3Den
AvidFan
Jul 15 2008, 02:02 PM
Below 10900. First Resistance at 10800??
Skinty
Jul 15 2008, 02:05 PM
This is fun!
Again! Again!
AvidFan
Jul 15 2008, 02:07 PM
Has something bad happened? Ben starting his testimony for example?
AvidFan
Jul 15 2008, 02:08 PM
10846 - 10800 about to be tested!
markinspain
Jul 15 2008, 02:09 PM
QUOTE (AvidFan @ Jul 15 2008, 04:08 PM)

10846 - 10800 about to be tested!
10833!
OLDFTB
Jul 15 2008, 02:09 PM
QUOTE (AvidFan @ Jul 15 2008, 03:07 PM)

Has something bad happened? Ben starting his testimony for example?
Bush to address economy in press conference
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25687265/No doubt that'll tank the market even more!
DabHand
Jul 15 2008, 02:11 PM
The Fed support for the GSE debacle was a thin pump. The markets have probably figured out the fed or the taxpayer can't really make it all better or dig them out of this one....AND in any case the GSE is one of many symptoms of where it's all heading.
Good luck trying to save any other banks (bu-bye Lehman et al) once the Fed has spuffed its last on Fanny Flaps and Flasher Mac.
AvidFan
Jul 15 2008, 02:23 PM
Awe - it bounced off 10800. No fair!
Agentimmo
Jul 15 2008, 02:25 PM
They probably took a look at the 2 candidates for the Presidency in Nov 08 and came to the conclusion that they'll be no better at fixing the mess than the current
clown incumbent.
Skinty
Jul 15 2008, 02:33 PM
Today is like watching a really spoilt fat kid who's been stuffing his face full of your cream pies all day long turn round to you and say pleadingly
"I don't feel too good ..."
interestrateripoff
Jul 15 2008, 02:42 PM
Out of interest in money terms how much has value has been wiped off the Dow so far, for each point down what does that equate too in money?
SHERWICK
Jul 15 2008, 03:03 PM
QUOTE (OLDFTB @ Jul 15 2008, 03:09 PM)

Bush to address economy in press conference
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25687265/No doubt that'll tank the market even more!

Why oh why do they have to get Bush to do this? Can't they find someone/something else?!?!
jonpo
Jul 15 2008, 03:09 PM
QUOTE (Stourbridge Baggie @ Jul 15 2008, 02:52 PM)

Have you got 'real-time' data access? The DOW information on the sites I usually visit still showing 11,055. Down 45 pts as the market opened though!
Edited: there it goes - 10,964!
If you have IE then I have setup a handy site to watch the implosion of the US financial sector in near realtime...
http://www.marketdatamatrix.com/if you have Firefox youll have to wait a bit while I write a standards compliant one...
markinspain
Jul 15 2008, 03:13 PM
The PPT is back! Dow back above 11,000 again. But how many more dollars can they spend to do this?
sossij
Jul 15 2008, 03:18 PM
QUOTE (markinspain @ Jul 15 2008, 04:13 PM)

The PPT is back! Dow back above 11,000 again. But how many more dollars can they spend to do this?
Gold and silver down sharply too.
WSG
Jul 15 2008, 03:30 PM
QUOTE (jonpo @ Jul 15 2008, 04:09 PM)

If you have IE then I have setup a handy site to watch the implosion of the US financial sector in near realtime...
http://www.marketdatamatrix.com/if you have Firefox youll have to wait a bit while I write a standards compliant one...
Brilliant...but what the ****** is it!!!!!
Monkey
Jul 15 2008, 03:33 PM
QUOTE (jonpo @ Jul 15 2008, 04:09 PM)

If you have IE then I have setup a handy site to watch the implosion of the US financial sector in near realtime...
http://www.marketdatamatrix.com/if you have Firefox youll have to wait a bit while I write a standards compliant one...
QUOTE (WSG @ Jul 15 2008, 04:30 PM)

I think all the red text if read vertically, is the stocks going down and the green text is the ones that are up
pretty cool, but hard ot follow IMO
Financial Planner
Jul 15 2008, 03:48 PM
I, for one, said the market would be strong - up - yesterday. Totally wrong.
Yet...yet. I can't help thinking the market is ST oversold. US Bancorop results today. Merrils tomorrow. Citigroup and Options Expiration Friday. Next week?
Then another big leg down in the autumn?
Bloo Loo
Jul 15 2008, 03:52 PM
QUOTE (AvidFan @ Jul 15 2008, 03:07 PM)

Has something bad happened? Ben starting his testimony for example?
GM announced NO DIVIDEND, staff and wage cuts, increased liquidity sought.
Might have something to do with it.
Red Kharma
Jul 15 2008, 03:57 PM
Energy and commodities sectors getting a kicking today.
Financials mixed bag.
Freddie Mac down another 25%, but Lehman up 9%, Washington Mutual (yesterday's whipping boy) bounced 20%.
The shorters are hunting around for their next kill by the looks of it.
The Euro had a go at a new high and made it briefly, before itself taking a kicking and is now back at 1.5922. So it looks like there weren't a whole bunch of buy orders sat waiting for it to breakout on this occasion.
WOW!!!! Crude has just fallen of a cliff! Down to $136. (edit in the last hour - I've been out so missed it)
Markets should romp away
jonpo
Jul 15 2008, 04:09 PM
QUOTE (WSG @ Jul 15 2008, 04:30 PM)

ok stocks that are going down are falling... they are in the red the more they are falling the faster they are falling and the more saturated their colour... stocks which are rising ( compared to yesterdays close) they are in green the faster they are rising the bigger the move up.... thats it the stocks where the action is are in the top left as you can see FRE (freddie mac) and FNM (fannie mae) are falling hard wtf MBIA is up 21% for though im not sure...
there is a FF freindly version of the data here not quite so action packed though....
http://www.marketdatamatrix.com/indexFFF.html
abharrisson
Jul 15 2008, 05:37 PM
QUOTE (Financial Planner @ Jul 15 2008, 08:18 PM)

I, for one, said the market would be strong - up - yesterday. Totally wrong.
Yet...yet. I can't help thinking the market is ST oversold. US Bancorop results today. Merrils tomorrow. Citigroup and Options Expiration Friday. Next week?
Then another big leg down in the autumn?
Not sure whether the market is oversold or not.... but there seem to be zillions of doom mongers here predicting a meltdown in every sector including housing of armageddon proportions... if they are right which I doubt then the market can forget about 10,000, how about knocking a zero off, then their predictions may turn out right.
domo
Jul 15 2008, 06:12 PM
It doesn't seem massively oversold, its been a very boring consistent selloff. Could probably do with a bit of a rally to work off the gloom before it plunges again.
Ted
Jul 15 2008, 07:47 PM
10,992.01
-63.18 (-0.57%)
Real-time: 3:46PM EDT
On its way back down.
Ted
Jul 15 2008, 07:54 PM
Will it close below 11,000??
OLDFTB
Jul 15 2008, 07:57 PM
QUOTE (Ted @ Jul 15 2008, 08:54 PM)

Will it close below 11,000??
Yes it did....just!
newbie
Jul 15 2008, 08:00 PM
We still haven't had a proper 'capitulation'. Any predictions as to when that will take place? October/November?
A.steve
Jul 15 2008, 08:08 PM
QUOTE (newbie @ Jul 15 2008, 09:00 PM)

We still haven't had a proper 'capitulation'. Any predictions as to when that will take place? October/November?
RBS's latest bearish announcement suggested "Autumn" - which is rather broad.
What I find interesting is RBS' share price - it traded huge volumes today - and fell more than other banks... in double-percentage-digits today, at one point... closing down 7% with the largest volume of any share on the FTSE100.
When HBOS' price slid at a downhill slalom event trajectory, that made some sense - investors worried about its UK mortgage lending... but sentiment has affected RBS worse than, say, Barclays?
Ted
Jul 15 2008, 08:10 PM
10,961.40
-93.79 (-0.85%)
Jul 15 - Close
uoooooo, below 11,000. Is that the lowest for a while?
Fannie
7.26
-2.47 (-25.39%)
Jul 15 - Close
Freddie
5.36
-1.75 (-24.61%)
Jul 15 - Close
I think there are a few large stubborn share holders that won't sell any more Fannie and Freddie shares. I doubt they will fall much further. If however they do go under, this will bring the world down, as so many financial institutions have bought their debt.
Converted Lurker
Jul 15 2008, 08:13 PM
we've done the "too big to fail" musings, but are some positions just too big to save? FMac and FMae lose another 25% in a single day despite all the assurances....wow

Has there ever been such a huge vote of no confidence in the ability of the Fed/US govt to rescue a situation?
Ted
Jul 15 2008, 08:17 PM
From what I seen somewhere, maybe bloomers, there were maybe 3 large institutions holding the majority of Freddie and Fannie's shares. If they won't sell, won't everything just carry on?
I think they are holding on as they have already lost so much money, it's pointless to sell now.
newbie
Jul 15 2008, 08:23 PM
QUOTE (Ted @ Jul 15 2008, 09:17 PM)

From what I seen somewhere, maybe bloomers, there were maybe 3 large institutions holding the majority of Freddie and Fannie's shares. If they won't sell, won't everything just carry on?
I think they are holding on as they have already lost so much money, it's pointless to sell now.
They would need to buy to maintain the price. Merely holding won't be enough to keep it from going down. And marking their holdings to market won't make their performance seem very good... Maybe Freddie and Fannie should be taken private via JP Morgan ala Bear Sterns.
I wonder how many pension funds were heavily invested into these bedrocks of the US economy?
WSG
Jul 15 2008, 08:26 PM
QUOTE (jonpo @ Jul 15 2008, 05:09 PM)

there is a FF freindly version of the data here not quite so action packed though....
http://www.marketdatamatrix.com/indexFFF.htmlI tried it...but black..presumably the market is closed..I'll try again tomorrow
It's pretty cool btw
Red Kharma
Jul 15 2008, 08:26 PM
QUOTE (newbie @ Jul 15 2008, 09:00 PM)

We still haven't had a proper 'capitulation'. Any predictions as to when that will take place? October/November?
Could be this week or next. I think it was only the oil sell off that saved it today. Somehow they managed to drop it by $10 which makes you wonder who is really in control of the oil market. Bernanke's words suggested the economy isn't in as good a shape as he previously thought, and oil collapses. My guess is that it was helped on its way down by concerted action.
It worked to a degree, but I'm starting to think they may now have to drop rates again. The banks will get the result they want out of Bernanke.
Ted
Jul 15 2008, 08:28 PM
QUOTE (newbie @ Jul 15 2008, 09:23 PM)

Maybe Freddie and Fannie should be taken private via JP Morgan ala Bear Sterns.
How mate, who at this moment in time can take on $5 Trillion of Debt?
It would have to be a gov bailout.
newbie
Jul 15 2008, 08:31 PM
QUOTE (Ted @ Jul 15 2008, 09:28 PM)

How mate, who at this moment in time can take on $5 Trillion of Debt?
It would have to be a gov bailout.
Back to back $5 Trillion loans. Think of the arrangement fees (and bonuses) that the bankers involved would pocket! Forget the wider consequences. They and their grandchildren's grandchildren would never need to work again.
newbie
Jul 15 2008, 08:33 PM
QUOTE (Red Kharma @ Jul 15 2008, 09:26 PM)

Could be this week or next. I think it was only the oil sell off that saved it today. Somehow they managed to drop it by $10 which makes you wonder who is really in control of the oil market. Bernanke's words suggested the economy isn't in as good a shape as he previously thought, and oil collapses. My guess is that it was helped on its way down by concerted action.
It worked to a degree, but I'm starting to think they may now have to drop rates again. The banks will get the result they want out of Bernanke.
It seems logical that the US economy going down means the demand (and capacity to pay for expensive oil) also goes down.
Quagmire
Jul 15 2008, 08:40 PM
Surely some "event" is required to create enough fog to get all this sorted behind the scenes. The failure of western economies is becoming so in-your-face obvious now.
Ted
Jul 15 2008, 08:41 PM
QUOTE (newbie @ Jul 15 2008, 09:33 PM)

It seems logical that the US economy going down means the demand (and capacity to pay for expensive oil) also goes down.
I thought it was the rest of the world that was pushing up demand?
Surely if America falls back, other countries will continue?
Also, if one unnamed country attacks another, expect it to jump 25%.
Converted Lurker
Jul 15 2008, 08:43 PM
QUOTE (Quagmire @ Jul 15 2008, 08:40 AM)

Surely some "event" is required to create enough fog to get all this sorted behind the scenes. The failure of western economies is becoming so in-your-face obvious now.
you've no need to answer this, but if you were as morally and ethically bankrupt as the financial position of the country you lead, what would you do?
newbie
Jul 15 2008, 08:44 PM
QUOTE (Ted @ Jul 15 2008, 09:41 PM)

I thought it was the rest of the world that was pushing up demand?
I thought the formula went like this:-
demand in the 'USA' plus demand in the 'rest of the world' = commodity prices have reached a permanently high plateau = this time it's different.
A.steve
Jul 15 2008, 08:47 PM
QUOTE (Ted @ Jul 15 2008, 09:41 PM)

I thought it was the rest of the world that was pushing up demand?
Surely if America falls back, other countries will continue?
Also, if one unnamed country attacks another, expect it to jump 25%.
Even if the rest of the world does continue to push up demand, America's consumption of oil is so large by comparison that a tiny proportional reduction in its demand would swamp new demand from emerging markets... and, if western funds dry-up for risky emerging market capital investments, it seems rather likely that emerging market demand for oil will fall too.
Furthermore - if the USA has problems now in establishing its creditworthiness among investors, this could only be made worse by engaging in a costly war... and it certainly seems that without American involvement/backing few people are particularly motivated to start wars.
Muskoka
Jul 15 2008, 08:49 PM
QUOTE (Converted Lurker @ Jul 15 2008, 09:43 PM)

you've no need to answer this, but if you were as morally and ethically bankrupt as the finanical position of the country you lead, what would you do?

Thats pretty scary thinking!
Ted
Jul 15 2008, 08:55 PM
QUOTE (A.steve @ Jul 15 2008, 09:47 PM)

America's consumption of oil is so large by comparison that a tiny proportional reduction in its demand would swamp new demand from emerging markets...
Fair enough.
QUOTE (A.steve @ Jul 15 2008, 09:47 PM)

Furthermore - if the USA has problems now in establishing its creditworthiness among investors, this could only be made worse by engaging in a costly war... and it certainly seems that without American involvement/backing few people are particularly motivated to start wars.
Agreed, can the US afford another war?
Or maybe another way is the answer? It solved the 1930s issue.
Quagmire
Jul 15 2008, 08:56 PM
My opinion is that Iran will be our event. The volume in the media of the war hawks has increased exponentially at the same time the main stream media has ramped up coverage of the western world’s financial troubles.
I don't mind being called mad, but I reckon Iran will be attacked before Bush leaves office, probably kicked off by Israel. We'll see terrorist action occurring in the US. The draft will be initiated (definitely if “bomb-bomb-Iran” McCain gets in).
People will be more concerned about having food on their plates and that little Bobby is ok serving in Iran than the collapse of economies and financial institutions.
I'm not attempting to hijack this thread and turn it into a conspiracy-nut-fest, but I can't see any other way out of the financial mess without governments collapsing.
Financial Planner
Jul 16 2008, 07:57 PM
QUOTE (Financial Planner @ Jul 15 2008, 04:48 PM)

I, for one, said the market would be strong - up - yesterday. Totally wrong.
Yet...yet. I can't help thinking the market is ST oversold. US Bancorop results today. Merrils tomorrow. Citigroup and Options Expiration Friday.
It may well be I got it all of 2 days out. I am such an idiot!
VedantaTrader
Jul 16 2008, 08:04 PM
QUOTE (Financial Planner @ Jul 16 2008, 08:57 PM)

It may well be I got it all of 2 days out. I am such an idiot!

Two days in these markets is alot of money...I never try to trade or call a bottom or top. I wait until price action signals a bottom,rather than predicting it.
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