Hi,
I'm an Aussie who is moving to scotland to teach later this year (I have lived there 2 years ago). I have noticed a lot of houses/flats in the dunfermline area for sale and a lot in the same street and this has sent up red flags!!. Is there really going to be a house price crash? If so, when? And is it really worth buying anything right now?
Full Version: Moving To Fife
unless you enjoy burning money the answer is no, do not buy now, rent for the time being and keep your eye on rightmove + propertybee ...
also do not be influenced by all the people telling you that scotland is different, because it is not!
also do not be influenced by all the people telling you that scotland is different, because it is not!
Prices are levelling out in Scotland now, albeit down (slightly) since January. In my opinion, not going to be a crash, just a mild drop thats all. Its all media driven, and as soon as the lenders start lending nearer the 100% LTV mark things, including the hype, especially on sites like this, will calm down.
QUOTE (rosele @ Jul 6 2008, 08:23 PM) 
Prices are levelling out in Scotland now, albeit down (slightly) since January. In my opinion, not going to be a crash, just a mild drop thats all. Its all media driven, and as soon as the lenders start lending nearer the 100% LTV mark things, including the hype, especially on sites like this, will calm down.
Shows how little you know about the situation. It is CREDIT DRIVEN. Anyone who thinks this is all media driven is insane. Have the media created all these mountains of enormous unservicable debt out of thin air..
QUOTE (rosele @ Jul 6 2008, 08:23 PM)
Prices are levelling out in Scotland now, albeit down (slightly) since January. In my opinion, not going to be a crash, just a mild drop thats all. Its all media driven, and as soon as the lenders start lending nearer the 100% LTV mark things, including the hype, especially on sites like this, will calm down.
Media driven? They're the last to hype HPC, they're just getting it now!
Winds me up when people start blaming the media for HPC or when people say we can talk ourselves into a recession; talk is just talk, open your eyes, look around and then make up your own mind.
btw, cannot be arzed to comment on your point of view.
Sensible reply about Fife! The market in this tiny kingdom is driven by a couple of things. In South and West Fife, a lot of people buy to commute to Edinburgh and that has inflated prices. We live in St Andrews and here we have had a classic BTL boom which again has inflated prices. I have been watching the relevant indices for a few years now and have a few comments that might help. The major thing here is that the supply of properties is up, and it is up a lot. The f-kspc.co.uk website usually has a peak of around 500 properties for sale (in the last 4 years this has been the case). This year there are over 650. Therefore supply is markedly up.
In addition, prices have not fallen here yet although an increasing number of properties are having their prices reduced and so lower sale prices should feed through into the data in the next few months. Although everyone likes to tell you that it is different in Scotland because prices are lower here in the first place, it is worth remembering that:
1. Average salaries are lower in Scotland than in England
2. We too have been busy increasing our debt burden over the past few years
3. The proposed local income tax will put a further squeeze on the salaries of those who do earn significantly more than average (I will personally pay twice what I do in council tax)
4. The squeeze on mortgage lending does not stop at the border so the availability of credit is reducing here too.
Personally I would rent but it depends on your circumstances and how long you plan to stay. The bottom line is a teacher can afford to buy property in Fife right now if they want but if you hang on a bit, you will most likely be a teacher in a much nicer house!
In addition, prices have not fallen here yet although an increasing number of properties are having their prices reduced and so lower sale prices should feed through into the data in the next few months. Although everyone likes to tell you that it is different in Scotland because prices are lower here in the first place, it is worth remembering that:
1. Average salaries are lower in Scotland than in England
2. We too have been busy increasing our debt burden over the past few years
3. The proposed local income tax will put a further squeeze on the salaries of those who do earn significantly more than average (I will personally pay twice what I do in council tax)
4. The squeeze on mortgage lending does not stop at the border so the availability of credit is reducing here too.
Personally I would rent but it depends on your circumstances and how long you plan to stay. The bottom line is a teacher can afford to buy property in Fife right now if they want but if you hang on a bit, you will most likely be a teacher in a much nicer house!
QUOTE (xyz @ Jul 7 2008, 10:21 AM)
Sensible reply about Fife! The market in this tiny kingdom is driven by a couple of things. In South and West Fife, a lot of people buy to commute to Edinburgh and that has inflated prices. We live in St Andrews and here we have had a classic BTL boom which again has inflated prices. I have been watching the relevant indices for a few years now and have a few comments that might help. The major thing here is that the supply of properties is up, and it is up a lot. The f-kspc.co.uk website usually has a peak of around 500 properties for sale (in the last 4 years this has been the case). This year there are over 650. Therefore supply is markedly up.
In addition, prices have not fallen here yet although an increasing number of properties are having their prices reduced and so lower sale prices should feed through into the data in the next few months. Although everyone likes to tell you that it is different in Scotland because prices are lower here in the first place, it is worth remembering that:
1. Average salaries are lower in Scotland than in England
2. We too have been busy increasing our debt burden over the past few years
3. The proposed local income tax will put a further squeeze on the salaries of those who do earn significantly more than average (I will personally pay twice what I do in council tax)
4. The squeeze on mortgage lending does not stop at the border so the availability of credit is reducing here too.
Personally I would rent but it depends on your circumstances and how long you plan to stay. The bottom line is a teacher can afford to buy property in Fife right now if they want but if you hang on a bit, you will most likely be a teacher in a much nicer house!
In addition, prices have not fallen here yet although an increasing number of properties are having their prices reduced and so lower sale prices should feed through into the data in the next few months. Although everyone likes to tell you that it is different in Scotland because prices are lower here in the first place, it is worth remembering that:
1. Average salaries are lower in Scotland than in England
2. We too have been busy increasing our debt burden over the past few years
3. The proposed local income tax will put a further squeeze on the salaries of those who do earn significantly more than average (I will personally pay twice what I do in council tax)
4. The squeeze on mortgage lending does not stop at the border so the availability of credit is reducing here too.
Personally I would rent but it depends on your circumstances and how long you plan to stay. The bottom line is a teacher can afford to buy property in Fife right now if they want but if you hang on a bit, you will most likely be a teacher in a much nicer house!
Nice reply xyz. I am not so sure about rosele's 'bear ' status.
It will be a buyers market for at least the next 18-24 months, at least. That means there will be no upward pressure on prices in this time, therefore you should not rush to buy and seek out something you really want rather that the "just buy anything to get yourself on the market" ******** that has been the way for the last 5-6 years. Remember, prices are already down inflation adjusted and they have further to fall.
QUOTE (rosele @ Jul 6 2008, 08:23 PM)
Prices are levelling out in Scotland now, albeit down (slightly) since January. In my opinion, not going to be a crash, just a mild drop thats all. Its all media driven, and as soon as the lenders start lending nearer the 100% LTV mark things, including the hype, especially on sites like this, will calm down.
Down slightly eh?
From the mother of all rampers themselves - the ESPC, Kirkcaldy area has dropped 23% in the last year, with Dunfermline down 5%.
Number of properties on the market is around double last years figures, and very little is shifting.
Of course Rosele, Fife in particular is immune to the credit crunch, nothing that happens outside of Fife (including the collapse of the banking sector in Edinburgh) can affect Fife - simply because it is a Kingdom! Back to reality for a minute though, i think you'll find the crazy price increases were all media driven, and the 'reality' of having to pay back the debt when prices stop rising will cause a HUGE amount of suffering. When the lenders start to lend near 100% again (lets say in maybe 3-5 years time) i am sure it will be income verified and max 3.5 times salary, which would be around 80-90K mortgages. NB this is NOT FTB, this is for the average earner.... by my reckoning with Fife prices currently averaging 150K or thereabouts, prices should drop by 30-40% in the next 2-5 years.
LibOz, i would strongly advise you to rent, it is MUCH cheaper (around 1/2 the cost of an IO mortgage) and there has been a sudden increase in the number of properties up for rent - and some rent reductions in the last month or so. Also, whilst renting, you can give yourself some time to suss out the area and market you would want to buy in.
The Fish
[quote name='Fishy' date='Jul 7 2008, 01:36 PM' post='1199324']
Down slightly eh?
From the mother of all rampers themselves - the ESPC, Kirkcaldy area has dropped 23% in the last year, with Dunfermline down 5%.
Welcome to HPC LobOz. I moved to Fife end of last year and am currently renting. I've been watching the market in Inverkeithing, N.Queenferry, Rosyth. all near the Bridge and an easy commute to Edinburgh. Prices have stopeed rising and I'm beginning to see terraces and Quarter villas (ex council) under 80K. There are a lot more Fixed prices too than 6 months ago.
I've decided to rent for another year. A 10% YOY drop will make this a good move. I'm expecting 15-20% by next summer. Edinburgh itself is going to tank.
Fife is a good place to live and work. Plentu of amenities, nice people lots of unspoilt countryside and good rail / motorway links. But 150K and more for a 2 bed new build ??? not sustainable.
more like half that when this all finally pans out
Down slightly eh?
From the mother of all rampers themselves - the ESPC, Kirkcaldy area has dropped 23% in the last year, with Dunfermline down 5%.
Welcome to HPC LobOz. I moved to Fife end of last year and am currently renting. I've been watching the market in Inverkeithing, N.Queenferry, Rosyth. all near the Bridge and an easy commute to Edinburgh. Prices have stopeed rising and I'm beginning to see terraces and Quarter villas (ex council) under 80K. There are a lot more Fixed prices too than 6 months ago.
I've decided to rent for another year. A 10% YOY drop will make this a good move. I'm expecting 15-20% by next summer. Edinburgh itself is going to tank.
Fife is a good place to live and work. Plentu of amenities, nice people lots of unspoilt countryside and good rail / motorway links. But 150K and more for a 2 bed new build ??? not sustainable.
more like half that when this all finally pans out
Yeah that's what i've been seeing on all the websites (ESPC, Right-move, your-move etc) but it still seems a little high when it costs over 70K for a studio flat in dunfermline. On one income (a teacher salary) the banks seem to want to lend me a lot more than i could afford, or want to pay so i think i'll take your advice and rent for a while.
cheers
cheers
Heard some anecdotes about builders mothballing projects in the Dunfermline area.
If I was only coming to work for two years and perhaps heading off again, I wouldn't consider buying.
Not a chance.
But if you do, try to get something old and made of stone.
Lots of rubbish new build has been slapped up in South Fife as result of the Edinburgh bubble.
Avoid like the plague.
If I was only coming to work for two years and perhaps heading off again, I wouldn't consider buying.
Not a chance.
But if you do, try to get something old and made of stone.
Lots of rubbish new build has been slapped up in South Fife as result of the Edinburgh bubble.
Avoid like the plague.
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