Hi see links below, detailing crash of prices of new-build Apts, of which Belfast has quite a few which were released at or near peak market prices and are currently under construction... As highlighted previously on TDGTTS website, some Apts in Victoria Square website recently reduced by between £45k to £75k in price..

Looking at the LTV's currently being offered by lenders in the first link, if these stay the same, Im sure a number of purchasers could be in for a shock at completion. The Apt valuation given by lender may be well below the contracted price, then the lender may only be willing to lend 65% or 75% of the reduced valuation, meaning either the purchaser stumps up alot of money to complete that they may not readily have, or they attempt to break contract and walk away losing deposit... Plus, with all the added units, will the rental demand and monthly rent figures stack up?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm....xml&page=1

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../21/cmbtl21.xml

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/buy...p;in_page_id=56

There could be some cheap apartments about to pick up in the next 18 months or so....

A work colleague recently spoke to me about the future of the property market. She heard I was renting. She asked when I was looking to buy. I said probably a couple of years. She asked me why I wouldn't buy at the minute. She then admited that she had bought an apartment offplan in Leeds in 2006 and they were having to complete very soon.........not much to say really

ouch

not a nice thing to hear from a friend Vesp

on a side note, my sister finally walked away from the apartments in VS...she lost a 5k deposit but would have lost MUCH more if she'd completed

first it was goimg to be rising rents that was going to save their BTL ass
now it is inflation

http://www.propertyhawk.co.uk/index.php?pa...zine&id=238

what next can they dream up?



rock on!

Well, yes, but...It's actually right, provided your house isn't collapsing in value and your tenants haven't gone back to Bratislava.

and you dont have to pay an extorniate fee to remorgage
and then find your monthly payment has still substantially increased
and thats if your lucky and you can actually get a BTL morgage!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7487078.stm


rock on!

Check it out:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...=81139&st=0

Could we see the same thing happening in Belfast?

Maybe we could (I find it strange that Obel,as something of a landmark building, appeared to suffer continual delays, with very limited progress to date - even though all units were selling so quickly during the boom times) and, if not large apartment blocks, there already appears to be much anecdotal evidence of housing developments being half completed but now on hold.


That said, as someone with a real love for Belfast, I really hope it does not happen - unfinished apartment blocks severely damage a city's image and attract a host of social problems. Irrespective of any dislike I may have for quick profiteers who have been naive in the extreme regarding NI apartment developments, t would be in no one's interests for the current downturn to result in half completed buildings.

Where do you live in Asia Ulidia? Spent a few years in Asia, under a year India and the rest mostly in Bangkok. As my base. Going to set up shop in Bangkok, when I can...The site of the Asian Crisis in 1997 was very apparent in Bangkok still a few years ago, and some of it today.

Check out this link to see the scale of the buildings that were unfinished in Bangkok. Unfinished BKK Builds post 1997

And that is only a few of them. There are around 330 skyscrapers unfinished. Although, I think alot of them have been finished in the last few years. There was a joke that "The Crane" was the national bird of Thailand, as the whole skyline was littered with them. There was actually a shortage of cranes during the Asian boom.

Will something similar happen in Belfast. I dont think so. Not that I think the problem is not as bad here. I think ther prices will drop meaninfully. However, Belfast doesnt build skyscrapers at all really. Maybe some apartments will go unfinished, but it will not be too noticeable I reckon. But then again who knows?

We dont build as fast and to that degree. The Asian cities are gigantic. There are about 5000 buildings that are regarded as highrise (skycrapers) in Bkk, with dozens and dozens added each year. We will maybe see some onholds...and a severe slump in the prices...but not widescale derrelicts. However, I have seen alot of building going on around the inner city areas of Belfast, more than should be at a time like this. So perhap there will be a over supply...

I'm currently based in Makati, the Central Business District of Metro Manila, in the Philippines. I know Bangkok very well (when I get the chance to travel there, I usually stay in the Sukhumvit or Siam Square areas). Despite its criticisms from both ex-pats and Thais, I must admit I love Sukhumvit alot.


There are very close similarities between Bangkok and Manila in many ways, especially in the housing / condo environment. Both have a large number of high-rise projects recently completed or under construction (ranging in quality from very low-end to very high-end and everything in between) and its very interesting from a city skyline / architectural perspective. In fact, today I had a tour of Bonifacio Global City, a new business district here in Manila, and some of the developments underway are simply breathtaking.


That said, there is certainly an issue / potential risk re oversupply in both cities and in terms of the credit crunch spreading out globally from the west and I believe prices in most of Bangkok to be at unsustainable levels (but I've been saying that for some time now and keep being proved wrong).


There are different dynamics at play in Manila / Bangkok vis-a-vis the UK market. In particular, condo living (partly due to size restrictions and commuting / traffic issues) is the aim of most business people here, whereas its still a relatively new phenomenon in many parts of UK, including Belfast and I think the British / Irish culture still is embedded in "house ownership". In addition, many people in this part of Asia simply purchase a condo not to live in or, unless they can get a very high rental yield, to let but, rather, for potential capital growth. On the face of it, given ongoing maintenance charges etc, it does not sound particularly sensible but I guess its horses for courses. However, in my view, it usually becomes self-defeating as the building deteriorates in quality over the years if too many of its units are unoccupied.


To be honest, the Bangkok situation re the half build condo towers is still there i.e. the recent developments have been upon new sites and, to best of my knowledge, the majority of the unfinished buildings have been left to rot. I cannot understand why, given the vast sums of money for the new Bangkok developments, that developers do not look at the unfinished sites - either to continue with the projects (if technically possible) - or to demolish and start again - as they tend to be in prime areas.


Anyway, sorry for the Asian derail but I find it fascinating to compare the current property climate here to the UK (and, in particular, NI) one !!!

you guys are ridiculous. There are hardly anywhere near the amount of developments going on in Belfast.

Belfast has had a massive glut of desirable apartments to live in over the past years and now the developers are reacting to demands for high spec apartments in city centre locations.

The fact is, if people buy into high quality developments in good locations they will be ok. Personally i think the Victoria square apartments are not one of these developments.

When you look at others areas which are been developed such as ormeau bakery and the titanic quarter, which will effectively create a city within a city then these areas are much more appealing.

Why not take your head out of the sand and just admit you made a bad investment? I've made plenty of bad investments in my time ....


Oh, and by the way, this is Belfast that we are talking about. As much as I love it, its too small to create viable cities with a city. It may work in larger metro regions (such as Manila with a population of 12m + rising) but not in Belfast.



But, then again, its all about leverage isn't it

See link below - someone one gumtree looking for those who have reserved in the Arc (Titanic) and are worried about falling house prices.....

http://belfast.gumtree.com/belfast/89/24374889.html

Link will likely get broken at some stage...

"HAVE YOU RECENTLY BOUGHT A PROPERTY AT THE ARC APARTMENTS IN THE TITANIC QUARTER AND WORRIED ABOUT THE CURRENT FALLING HOUSE PRICES ???"

Early stages of panic?

Use of capitals suggests SHOUTING?

Could conversly perhaps be a vulture looking early for possibilities?

MB1 you posting on GUMTREE?

Stop wasting your time on gumtree and talk to us here - a lot of very intelligent people post here - we are a syympathetic bunch really! let us help you!

Personally I could buy in Belfast now but whats the point.
Telegraph saying we are now closer to recession than to avoiding recession.
Mainland UK flats falling faster than Gordon Browns Poll Ratings
NI is going to have to wake up very soon to how over valued property is in the whole of the country.

Im far from worried. In all this doom and gloom, citibank today announced they are creating 150 more jobs in Belfast and have signed a lease for two of the three buildings in new office space in the TQ.

Personally i think the TQ is a sound investment, its an area that is only going to appreciate in value in the coming years and as far as im concerned ive bought into one of the highest quality apartment schemes in the city. The apartments are consideribly bigger than most apartments in the city and will be technologically more advanced etc.

In an event the rental yield on them should be sufficient to making a large dent in the mortgage.

Irish investors walk away from deposits on British apartments and hope developers don't chase them for the rest.

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.as...4210-qqqx=1.asp


quote

Sean Couch, of the Dublin Mortgage Company, said he knew of similar cases where Irish buy-to-let investors were unable to obtain funding to complete purchases on British properties on which they had paid deposits before the credit crunch hit.

He said some buy-to-let investors were forfeiting their deposits and walking away from the deals in the hope that the developers would not pursue them to honour the contract.



quote

yawn yawn,

nothing specific to Belfast or indeed the titanic quarter. you guys can pull articles out of the bag to support your ideas that we are totally doomed as much as you like but i am enthusiastic about belfasts opportunities in the coming decade.

and your support for this on currently available data is?

The 18% collaspe in prices for the last 9 months?
The number of estate agent closures?
The looming job cuts in construction?
The high rate of inflation?
The very largepublic sector here, which Mr Brown has ordered to give below inflation increases to?

The number of people in negative equity?
Still the 5th highest place in the uk for house prices but yet still one of the lowest paid areas?
Incoming water charges?
Rates review?

Looking at 2 bed apartments at the ARC on propertynews the price currently varies between 310k and 255k - will the spread become greater as more people put their apartments on the market.


http://www.propertynews.com/results.php?s=48747934&p=2

I dont think these are people putting them back on the market, its unsold apartments. These are been sold by the developer, private sales wont happen till they are complete!
Belive there is at least 20+ still available!
Price varys depending on if you have a view over water, view over the garden area or a view over the mess behind!

cant wait till they are built......

cant wait to rent one with the owner massively subsidising my rent.

personally expect a lot of people not to complete on these

http://www.derryjournal.com/journal/Derry-...cial.4263068.jp

"Derry Builder in Crunch Financial Talks" - story on Taggart Holdings

Very strange then that given this doom and gloom citibank are signing leases for two buildings in the TQ and adding 145 jobs as well.

Does anybody actually think that the executive in NI and Westminster are going to let the TQ development fall flat on its face? I think not.

We'll see if those jobs come about and the leases are signed or not. Time will tell, but I don't believe it's a done deal.

I don't believe they'll have much choice if the investment people with the money get concerned.

Government grants im sure are encouraging them , they are mainly IT jobs moving them from London to over here were its cheaper!
135 jobs really isnt going to change the econonmy as a whole

I seriously doubt the executive and Invest NI would be making a statement about it unless it was going to actually happen. Sure 135 jobs isnt going to turn the economy around but its 135 more people who might want to invest in the area/rent there.

Do you think Westminster gives a toss about a real estate development in Belfast. As for Stormont, its so hapless, they couldn't organise their way out of a paper bag.

Is there anyway we can all agree to meet up on line in 2 years' time? Someone will be gloating unpleasantly - who will it be?

Emm lets see. The opportunity to allow Belfast to stand on its own two feet and get some healthy investment, yes i do imagine that Westminster has a vested interest in Belfast and NI as a whole becoming successful.

Excellent news to see that the auctions in Wilsons last night didnt go so horribly wrong as everybody anticpiated wasnt it.

well they have to get a good one everynow and again, otherwise they wouldn't bother with auctions

WHAT AUCTION DID WILSONS HAVE LAST NIGHT - A PROPERTY ONE ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Excellent news to see that the auctions in Wilsons last night didnt go so horribly wrong as everybody anticpiated wasnt it.
[/quote]

Looking for the results on this one - can anyone help?

...and those two posts show Internet Nature in all its glorious diversity One question, so many ways to ask it.....

... despite the fact that they will not give NI, or a part of NI (such as TQ) a lower corporate tax rate than the rest of the UK?


I think Westminster has enough to be concerned about re the UK economic environment, and stability of the banking & financial system, without focusing on NI.

I have to say I was a bit surprised at citibank's apparent expansion as they seem to be in a bit of difficulty - check google news. Probably some kind of cost cutting measure? I wonder where they're pulling out of?

Well INvest NI are giving them 2 million to sweeten the deal - we"ll wait and see how many ads appear for jobs.

That's almost £14K of public money given to them for each job they create. And they can get away with paying us far lower wages than London.

Hardly surprising they're moving over here then!

am i correct in assuming that the ARC completion date was late 08 ?
if so we wont have long to wait to discover whether she floats on the credit crunch tsunami currently enveloping this wee country
jez its great to live in such interesting times is it not MB ?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=PhDkRXKmAJQ&feature=related


Rock on!

Sadly your wrong on the arc completion. The first apartments are not due to complete until late 2009 with the majority to complete early 2010 I imagine. By the time snag lists etc are done I imagine it will def be 2010 for most people.

By that time there will hopefully be lots of little city bankers wanting a place to rent of buy.

Not sure if you have read the debates on corp tax drop for Ni, personally I think its only a matter of time before further concessions made. The IFSC in dublin can already outsource to the tq and avial of its low rate.

I m certainly not doubting they ll be worth more in alot of years...quite a few. That goes for all property...in the longrun. However, that does mean that its a good investment. Its not a good investment to buy in the 4-6 year bust part of a property bubble, never has been, never will be. For the sake of a year or two, why pay an 20-40% more now than you could pay then?

I ll give a micro scale example...Lets say I wanted to book a trip to Asia. I went to town, or online or whatever, and priced the flight. The nice girl told it would cost me £600. A special offer was coming on. She said if I wait until next week, I can book the same flight for £300. I think most people would wait.

For the sake of even a year, why pay an extra £120,000 or whatever it is over 25 years. Never can you call an investment good when you buy a top. My philosophy about a good investment is looking for things that are 50-80% below their all time highs.

In reality what you are doing by not holding off for a year or two is paying an extra £500 a month more than you need to. That is a weeks holiday 12 times a year, for 25 years.

Sugar for example is a great investment, and cocoa is another. Not property in NI, or many parts of the western world. Also selling things that are priced to fantasy is a ghood investment.

You know a 30 year UK Gilt has a yield of 4.50% today. In other words these bonds are pricing in that for the next 30 years inflation will not be higher than 4%. Real inflation is already higher than that, not using government figures.

My advice to you, would be to take out a longterm fixed rate mortgage, if you can. Try and get at least a 10 year or 25 year. Bonds are optimistically over priced. Yields will shoot up at some point in the future. I think people dont realise that what the scene could be like a few years from now. I dont see the central banks and governments of this world being able to politically let the deflation which will occur take place. They will try to monetize the debt, try to reinflate when the pain of the deflation gets too much. This will set the scene for eventually higher longterm interest rates. You dont want to be coming off a short term fixed rate mortgage and have your mortgage payments triple overnight...

I am not painting a doomsday scenario. I m positive about all sorts of other investments. I do believe we are in a credit destruction now, which could be inflated away, which in the end will end in higher bond yields and then a final deflationary bust...

Heres my take on titanic quarter,

I think i'd rather buy just about anything other than a new build in titanic quarter, in fairness, i might rent one, but not for a few years after the first lot are released and not at anything like what i think people will expect. The smell down there is hateful when the wind blows the wrong way and it will be one huge noisy, dusty building site for years.

I worked down there for a while and the whole building i was in shook for the weight of the big lorries going up and town the Queens road servicing the docks and the scrap metal merchants at the end!

Everyone complained about getting punctures due to the bits of cars that regularily fell off the lorries.

I dont particularily like the location at the moment either, sure it may be 'within walking distance of the city centre' but would you dare after dark, the bridges in betweeen are scary.

Sooner or later they will half end up in council housing, nothing wrong with that but the housing executive rent will simply not be what the owners expect.

Ten/fifteen years from now, they may well be very desirable in fantastic areas and the buyers may do well. I guess you take an opinion, pays your money and take your chances.


right now,

As for value for money, 260k for two bedrooms in a nosey, dusty apartment or buy one of these in a years time for the same money

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...p;p=TRLTRL49276
http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...mp;p=GOCGOC3682

Ten minutes on the bus or 15 cycling would have you there.

Which one would you choose?

Citibank have outsourced much of their back office operations for their US retail banking businesses to Manila, where they pay staff an average salary of less than £8 sterling per working day (9hr working day, typically from 3.30am to 12.30pm - due to time zone differences). I just hope the salaries of the new employees at Titanic Quarter are alot higher, otherwise the rental yields on those apartments could be extremely low


InvestNi's record re job creation isn't too bad .... but their record of sustainable job creation is pretty woeful - when the subsidies or concessions dry up, the jobs tend to up and leave with them.

The sums spent 'bribing' multinationals to come to Belfast are embarrassing. Invest NI should be selling the country on its merits, of which there are many, and giving encouragement to local firms.

The money should be spent on infrastructure - railway connections to the airports, roads, etc - which would benefit business, tourism, inward investors and ordinary people. Why is the NI civil service so stupid???

bang on the money

yea, the idea of giving grants to large multinationals to invest is a terrible idea. I mean, look how horribly wrong it went for the IDA in Ireland. They werent successful in attracting a huge amount of investment for Ireland were they.

Come on guys.... bigger picture. There is no point building roads, transport links etc unless people actually have somewhere to go other than collect the dole.

And FYI, not sure if your familiar with the recent transport report published which will introduce new high speed bus links to that ghastly dusty old place with horrible scrap car dealers. strange that the govt thinks people might actually want to to the TQ to perhaps work or live isnt it. Very odd.