Nationwide stats (I know them but embargoed...) and comment from moi

A recording of this is now available directly from the HPC server for both viewing online and for you to download and keep

Watch online, or download.

Thanks FP, I'll watch with a cup of tea, I should think. Rooibos, probably.

Good luck FP. Can't wait to see you telling Declan how it really is.

I think its safe to have a guess at what they might be indicating then if they asked you to go on

This will be a good one!

Will Melanie Bien be there again? She was cannon fodder last time you two met on TV.

I know you can`t say, but I hope the figures are so bad that you hardly have to say a word !

(Not that I dislike hearing you on national TV, FP !).

I am gonna watch it with a coffee, no South African tea for me.

I think it will be a great result for us. Possibly -10% yoy, those last few summer boom months in the figures are slipping away.

FP, If Declan says that all this is bad for first time buyers (as is the media line) tell him I will be putting my foot through the TV and sending him the bill!

Phone

Will be up bright and early for it. Weren't these figures supposed to have come out last Friday though???

I'm going on holiday tomorrow, could you let me know now?

If the figures are anywhere near as bad as last months, I would expect Declan to be really annoyed and blaming the likes of you and all on HPC.co.uk for "talking down the market". The 'doom-monger' argument.

If accused of this, maybe a good reply would be "Well the media weren't afraid of 'talking up' the market for over a decade with property porn shows etc... Maybe if they hadn't done that we wouldn't be in this mess. And besides this market doesn't need talking down, it's doing it all by itself."

But if you do say that, get ready to duck when Declan throws his clipboard at you.

Good luck and good work!

quite agree with you, we should refuse to buy any products from all countries that support mugabe, maybe then they'll stop their hero worship of him and take notice at this outrage

declan's generally only interested in hot air ballooning and cakes, in that order (obviously has to be in that order)

I think it's time for a new tactic from you now, FP; anyone with half a brain must surely know now that the crash is very much locked and loaded (borrowing figures tell us that).

Rather than repeat the true but already stated facts about how screwed the market is, I reckon you should capitalise on the credibility they now realise you have. Tomorrow morning I dare you, in fact I double dare you to say;

"but these figures are no surprise to Fionaula; a simple trend analysis of her company's published data in March would have told her that today's figures were to be expected. However, if she had admitted this at the time the Nationwide would have had to write down their asset book further, which is why their predictions should always be taken with a pinch of salt in a falling market"

Go on, scaredy cat!

You probably will only have the chance for 1, perhaps 2, soundbites so rehearse a couple of 5 or 10 seconds phrases on points that you wish to get across and then, like all politicians and celebs, just say them no matter what question you are asked.

Personally, I would used "Doomed! We're all doomed! Well, not me because I sold to rent but all you greedy so and sos... Doomed! You're all doomed!" (Practice your best Private Fraiser accent.)

And then quickly add that you new book on surving in a credit crunch will shortly be out in W. H. Smith for £4.99

Best of luck.

Ohh, i think Ill brew a red one up now, fancy one?

FP, in a couple of months they'll wheel you in for the bullish point of view .... only -35%

Miaow...

Go on, you know you want to. You must be missing the smell of cordite and rush of battle since the last mission at the Estate Agents' conference.

I can make up some figures now if that will help?

Go FP! Make 'em weep.

Give us a secret nod FP

Tap the desk twice just before your killer quote, if no desk tap Declans head really hard twice with your foot. This will be our little secret.


sshhh

Mike Catt always used to touch his left ear during the national anthem when he played for England to say hi to the rellies in erm, South Africa.

Maybe FP can do the same.

Shows the difference between rugby and football, I say kick someone in the head and you say rub your ear.

Worrying really

If you tell me what they are, I promise I won't say anything to anyone.

Best of luck, please try hard to catch Declan out or make him look stupid.

Damn, I just realised got an early 9.00 meeting in the City tomorrow and will have to leave by 7.30. Do they put that stuff on BBC iplayer? If not could someone screen-cap and youtube it?

Someone mentioned that the NW figures would be "BAD BAD BAD", without saying what the figure would be... Looks like they were correct....

Yeah, fair point. Wendyballers are way tougher; what with all those snipers in the stadium shooting at them. I reckon I saw at least 5 players get hit by bullets in the Euro final last night, I hope they survive.

You can take the mick Paddles but have you ever been lightly brushed on the face by another footballers fingers?

Well, it bloody hurts i sh*t you not!

It seems pretty clear that the figures are going to be ugly and that they have got FP on for this reason. But watch out FB, they will be looking for you to gloat in a smug way
"i got it right - wasn't I clever" sort of response. They will be trying to make you (& the rest of us) out as a scapegoat for all of this with our "missed-the-boat, doom-mongering, talking down the market etc"

At some point he's going to ask

"what have you got to say to all those hardworking families who will be ruined by the coming-to-pass of your HPC prophesy?"

At this point, the following line comes to mind....

"They are a product of your profession Declan, not mine!"



(apologies to Dalton Trumbo)

Cue Hammet solo and lots of headbanging

Spot on..

This is the predictable mood for housing bulls now. They're going to resent the hell out of anyone who spotted and avoided the biggest elephant trap in the history of mankind. In fact they won't just resent it, I think they'll be furious, verging on violent. Rosie Millard has spouted off at reluctant FTBers being like 'vultures' recently. Much more of this to come I think.

So watch out FP. You're could well be singled out as a hate figure by these BTL, MEW types, for doing nothing more than speaking some much needed common sense.

As the great Lance Corporal Jones so wisely said. "They don't like it up em."

I have to agree with this - but I am sure FP is well prepared. Having seen FP a number of times on the TV he is pretty sharp. I have every confidence in you FP - I am sure you don't need us telling you how to suck eggs!

What buzz words can people think of that you should be using?

3 each please!

"biggest asset bubble ever"
"burst"
"deflation"

My favourite - "I would'nt touch property with a barge pole"

as I started it i can have 4

DB

Ask the useless fat git if he has a BTL portfolio and if he has, tell him he's too late to sell it now!

Good luck FP.


Can you slip in the expression "I told you so!". Have you ever been pitted against Miss Allsop?

Good luck FP!

Knock them dead!

Good luck from me as well FP.

Remember you don't need to be angry.

it is obvious to everyone now that we are in for one almighty fall in prices. Just keep cool and emphasise how it should have been foreseen and controlled by the government, the banks, and the media. Also emphasise that the correction, ahem.. is healthy in the long run, and try to explode the myth of the shortage of housing.

Will Declan release the stats before 7.00? He was doing a feature from Lowestoft Docks this morning, if I'd have known, I'd have got myself down there and heckled him.

Good luck FP!

If BTL boy Declan starts to blame you for "talking the market down" then just remind him that HPC.co.uk has been one of the few rational information sources in the crazy asset bubble we have just experienced. We warned people for years and they simply did not listen (including the BBC).

As for buzz phrases - I love "biggest asset bubble in history" and you could slip in the "Tulip Bubble" if you want to compare the madness and stupidity of the 2001-2007 UK house price boom to other equally stupid and reckless economic manias in the past.

EDIT - to include BBC

Good luck FP.

I am sure you will easily get your point over in your normal calm, but confident manner.

"I wouldn't touch it with yours". Oh, that's for a different situation.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...mortgage230.xml

Figures due on Tuesday from the Nationwide, the country’s biggest building society, are likely to confirm that the housing down turn has turned into a full-blown slump, with prices falling nine months in a row and with the average property price having fallen £14,200 from its peak last summer.

I think you should turn up in full length black robe with over the head cape, a scythe in one hand, and say to the bull "ive come for you"

Go for it FP - enjoy your moment. If you can, try and emphasise that the correction is good news for the majority of people. On the topic of buzz phrases, if you can slip the phrase 'grotesquely overvalued' into your slot then I will mail you a crispy £5 note.

Well done.

Do your best FP. Prepare well and make the most of the time you get. Ramp gold if you get a chance. Explain how sellers would be best to drop 50% before they have to drop 80% or something. Thanks

If that's exactly true, can someone deduce the real figures? Is there a link to last month's NW figures?

FP….I thought that it might amuse you to know that our teenage children have set their 'phone alarms for 07:45 (ish) tomorrow so we might see an unprecedented early working day morning family gathering in the living room…Goodonya!

Our VCR (well…you never know) has also been dialled in to record the event.

I think it would equate to a little over 7% YOY and down between 2 and 3%
MOM ... those are just figures out of my head based on the data I can remember, so treat with caution !

OK - just did my research and dug the calculator out , if the figures are correct then that equates to a YOY fall of 7.5% and MOM of just over 2%. I'd settle for that ... looks like we're on track for at least 15% this year. This is when the fear will set in and things really start to motor.

All the best FP. I will be tuning in at work.

Oh the irony - I can hear Phil and Krusty in the background ramping up the market as I type this! (repeat on More4)

Mention Kirsty and eating her hat FP - that would be pure class XXX rated bear porn!!!

It looks about like they are using the expected figure of 1% decline.

Very very hopefull IMHO. This article is bullish.