Well the Dow Jones is about an hour from closing and it's around 2.6% down at 11,505.36, more than 200 points below its year-long low point of 11,740.15.

I think the US must be seriously facing the prospect of negative GDP growth within the next quarter, is their recession now starting?

Since the UK economy is closely tracking the US, it can only be so long before it can no longer be denied by the politicians.

Black Friday?
Mike

Probably a short term bounce before another major decline. AKA crash.

So the 2:15pm pump didn't work this time then?

Down over 300 points now




Still 25 mins to go.


"Sell.....sell.....sell.................."

There won't be a crash.....just a slow steady decline.

Will it be up 150 tomorrow though?

Maybe, but the new oil high of over $140 a barrel is likely to make matters worse once investors have a night to sleep on it.

Closed down 358.41 (3.03%) at 11,453.42, not quite black friday but pretty major.

It's Thursday...

This piece from Bloomberg says it all

U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression

By Michael Patterson

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst June since the Great Depression, as record oil prices, credit-market writedowns and a slowing economy threatened to extend a yearlong profit slump.

Time to invest in soup kitchens.

You are Nostradamus and I claim my £5

These peaks and troughs are surely designed to suck the last bit of lifeblood out of the unsuspecting mug punters (investors)? The ftse 100 has gone from 5,700 peaked at 6,400 back down to 5,500 inside 3 months...that pattern is roughly repeated with the DOW and this is a consistent pattern developed over the past two years, this is the 4th peak and trough of a similar nature/pattern during that time Totally rigged market IMHO. The ftse 100 is headed for 2004 levels IMHO, circa 4000, the DOW will likewise fall to 2004 levels, without the promotion of mining stocks the ftse 100 index would probably be there already.

This cannot be a major event as CGNAO has not posted a warning about it.

100% guaranteed.

He's done one mate.

One would almost think it was a random walk

"The ftse 100 is headed for 2004 levels IMHO, circa 4000"

How much did you pay for your put options? And what maturity?

Within the last 24 hours?

For a good while now. I think he's banned. I raised a thread for the mods asking for clarification last week.

My guess - FTSE down tomorrow until NYSE opens - DOW rallies a bit, FTSE follows half-heartedly. It's only a guess!
Isn't increasing volatility said to be a fore-runner of a prolonged bear market?

How long until they start clamouring for rate cuts, I wonder?

TBH Noel I don't have your experience/expertise, I'm just a simple northern bloke who doesn't invest in stuff he doesn't fully understand. Got a sixth sense were being stiffed is concerned though...

after hours trading suggest big bounce tomorrow. at least for the stocks i track.

Dow closed at -358 points, or -3.0%

You may be right. I just get mildy annoyed when people think they can outsmart the market on a long term basis. If we are 100% heading for Armageddon, why isn't the Dow at the values today that it will be in 12/24 months today? Note that I don't believe that the PPT (assuming they exist) could support the index for any period of time, so what is holding the market up?

Ignorance?

Not sure if this is related

its titled - President Bush makes surprise visit to real world

http://newsbiscuit.com/article/bush-makes-...-real-world-253

Stupidity?

Blind hope......

You may learn something from this - The Bear market of 1929 to 1933 -

As you can see, the initial crash took out the speculators. What followed destroyed the so-called 'professionals'.

partly due to the composition of the fTSE 100 - 25% of it is made up of oil stocks and look at the oil price

partly because money has to be invested somewhere, hence the boom in commodities

partly because people have different perceptions of what represents good value - is the ftse 100 good value at 5,400 or 5,200 or 4,800?

For those that missed it.

They say the Great Depression started with a whimper.

Noooo please. They may be a little eccentric but his threads are fascinatingly prophetic and accurate.

I mentally dismissed the calls of the 'big one' coming last year, and now we're seeing it.

CGNAO is an asset to HPC and we all can learn something from him.

TFH

Speak for yourself mate

if a similar pattern is repeated/overlaid where would it take us back too..roughly? 1999-2000 on both Indices, Dow & FTSE?

Perception is misguided. Investors are being mislead by investment banks, the federal reserve and the US treasury that all is OK - that the US economy will rebound yesterday (recession, what recession?), and all risks are covered. So, yes, stupidity and ignorance as already replied in answer to your question. If the PPT does not exist, then some of the recent movements in the market indices would indicate that people are in fact more ignorant and stupid than first suspected.

How many points would the DOW need to fall tomorrow before it was no longer a 'slump' and qualfied as a 'crash'?

1200 points would be a double digit percentage drop and would qualify as a crash.

How many stockbrokers would need to jump out of windows (or in today's jargon, hedge fund managers) before it would go down in history as "June 08"?

Black Thursday

23rd April 2009 -put a note in your diaries!

Equities wont look that that this time around. Don't forget the DOW is measured in fiat dollars this time.

A helluva way to be classed as a crash, as a crash is over a short period of time, its 19.1% off peak (source cnn money) so isn't that far away from being an official bear market,

Not going to predict Armageddon yet but I think there's an inherent bias toward optimism in the markets and also in humankind in general. Optimists generally do better and are more popular but it does not mean they are always right. Watching Bloomberg TV, I get the impression that a lot of people are simply in denial about how bad things are. At each point in this crisis so far the optimists have been proven wrong and the pessimists right.

Fund managers

I have been out all day looking at campervans - Bongso in fact. Turns out I am too tall for one and they are too small, IMPO, for any serious nookey in the back of one. However, such campervans may well be the new homes of tomorrow.

When I got home just now - still car-less and seriously considering whether I do need to replace my car (Bit of a drag walking 20 miles in a rubber suit with a surfboard on my back though ) - the first thing I did was check the markets as I had a feeling this week would be 'interesting'. I think we are seeing the crisis unfold before our eyes right now. Bugger, that's my pension about to lose 90%.

I also feel that the speculators are driving commodities and that many of those 'speculators' are, IMPO, toostupid to realise there is a commodity bubble underway and also, perhaps, they wrongly believe that cash in banks earning 5% interest is not enough - I suspect within a few weeks or months many with shares now will wish they had put the money in the bank and walked away in May.

I have just come back from Worcestershire down through mid-Wales past field after field after field full of crops for as far as the eyes could see. I doubt whether many of those b*****ers in the City or the financial journos ever get outside the M25 to see how much land we actually have here in the UK growing stuff. Give it a year and once again we will be having farmers whinge about how they are not making enough money selling all their stuff to the supermarkets... although judging by the farmers I saw today, the cars they drive and the houses they live in I doubt many of them are on their last few pennies.

Back to the markets - I do think a big crash is now happening before our eyes. It might not turn out to be bigger than 1929 but I certainly think it will be the biggest SINCE 1929. Oh dear.

They are mostly fund managers that offer you the opportunity to go long. They don't short the market. They make money out of investing yours in equities. If you stop investing they stop earning. I wonder why 'we're seeing some value in financial at the moment gene' is what they all say when they've sold all of their personal shares and gone short?

The only bit of US bloomberg worth listening to is the economic report. And even then you need to be selective.

Don't listen to words, watch the prices.

These longer-term charts of the DOW may help to put the falls in some sort of perspective.

Dow 30 Monthly chart

Click to view attachment

Dow 30 Weekly chart

Click to view attachment

Fallen around 20% since the high last year, but has given up 38% of the entire gains of the bull market since 2003.

Thats nominal as well.

Try the dow priced in gold. It even makes the bear market of the 30's look tame in comparison.

If I have to search and upload one more bl**din' chart tonight I won't be able to see in the morning......don't let me stop you though