Thought I would start a new thread which focuses on the facts and figures on the Edinburgh property market. I am forever back tracking through old posts to check on figures and projections of my posts and other fellow posters. Thought it would be a good idea to extract some of the numbers in this topic, that way we can reference them quickly and other non-members can find the facts quickly.

OK I'll start with the imminent ESPC Q2 figure release which I believe is on the 10th of July.

Past mean figures;

Q2 2007 £227,912
Q3 2007 £221,986
Q4 2007 £215,168
Q1 2008 £210,123

Q2 2007 to Q1 2008 = a drop of 7.8% So Edinburgh is currently 7.8% down from peak.

To stop the YoY figures from going negative Q2 2008 figures will have to show a rise of 8.466% from Q1 2008.

As discussed in the "Edinburgh Latest" thread, although transactions are down massively, those properties that have sold may well distort the average up for Q2 even though the sample will be hugely reduced.

Hope this new thread helps

I have been keeping an eye on Gorgie as a good barometer of the Edinburgh Market at the bottom end:

Up until Spring 2008:

One bed flats - Maybe a couple at less than 125k.*

17th May:

One bed flats - 8 at 120k or less.

20th May:

One bed flats - 13 at 120k or less.
One bed flats - 25 at 125k or less.

9th Jun:

One bed flats - 20 at 120k or less.
One bed flats - 32 at 125k or less.

27 Jun:

One bed flats - 22 at 120k or less
One Bed Flats - 31 at 125k or less

* = Rough guess I wasn't actually count back then.

I reckon Gorgie has already fallen by about 5-10% nominal

Its a significant increase in choice and competition. With transactions down it can only lead to falling prices in this area. After new builds, I have always said that Gorgie/Leith older tenaments would be next to fall.

I know a person who has just bought a flat in the new Westerinch development in Bathgate for the purpose of letting out. Scotland as a whole didnt rise in price like the big cities in England, so you honestly think we will fall, if at all? I can see a flat spot for a bit but cerainly no notable falls. Thoughts?

What planet are you from ? Seriously ? You missed all those 'Scottish house prices booming' headlines from teh last 5 years or something !!

As an example Edinburgh is one of the most expensive places in the entire UK. So if we are going by the logic of the 'experts' then Edinburgh should be goosed....

WRONG!! sorry to be so blunt but you need to do your homework before coming onto this site and making such rash comments

This graph is from the Registers of Scotland, effectively Scotlands Land Registry. So this is completed sales.

Click to view attachment

Edinburgh has boomed massively in 2007, where as Wales and England had moderate growth. As you can see from the graph, we are now heading downwards. Also have a look at my first post on this topic. Real facts and real figures from the ESPC and now the registers of Scotland showing Edinburgh falling fast.

I dont have figures for Scotland as a whole but the rest of Scotland will fare worse the the capitol.

I dont know this developent that you friend has bought into, so I can't comment, anyone else?

I forgot to add, welcome to this site.

Hopefully, if you have your head screwed on right, this site will help you realise that buying property at present would not be the most wise move. Patience and time will reward those who practice fiscal prudence.

In the latest ESPC paper, the average selling price for City of Edinburgh in Q2 2008 is given as £233,840, which is up YoY 2.6% from last year’s £227,912.

The latter figure hasn’t been fiddled, but concurs with what ESPC have published previously.

However, the published figure for Q1 2008 was £210,123, making the Q2 a whopping QoQ increase of … 11.3%! I’m surprised they’re not trumpeting this on the front page.

I notice that the rise from Q1 to Q2 2007 was 9.7%, and from Q1 to Q2 2006 was 12.0%, so evidently in Edinburgh there really is a pronounced annual spring bounce.

Sadly, we now need a QoQ drop of 5.1% if we’re finally to get our long-awaited negative YoY figures in the autumn …

Muswell Hillbilly, 5.1% drop wont happen.

What I see round where I am is FP properties at prices above peaks last year hoping for offer around peak price.

As I am lazy maybe you could post the transaction numbers for the quarters you posted as the other thing that I notice is hardly anything selling. Not many people dropping prices for a sale yet (though I did see one locally which will have blown the level for that particular road).

We are just a year behind England! I reckon winter 2009/10 before we see any improvement!

Edited for spelling.

Scotlands prices (especially Edinburgh and surrounding areas) have over inflated over the past 10 years. My parents took out a £130k mortgage for their current house in 1997 and I am applying for a similar mortgage now... the only difference being I am going for 2 bed council flats and they have a large 4 bedroom detached house. House prices are way over what they should be, and they are due to fall back a bit.

As for renting, that is different. There will always be people wanting to rent (especially now when most people cannot buy). Your friend should still be able to charge a reasonable rental price per month, even if the property price does fall.

Sales volumes below from ESPC. (Numbers in brackets are comparable volumes for same period in previous year)


Q2 2007: 3267(3450)- 5.3% down
Q3 2007: 3092(3246)- 4.7% down
Q4 2007: 2510(2979)- 15.7% down
Q1 2008: 1606(1721)- 6.7% down
Q2 2008: ????(3267)- ???

I had a look for the latest figures as you say Muswell Hillbilly but hey are not on the ESPC site. Where did you get them from ?

I reckon the drop in sales could be over 20%.

This news is not on the website yet - presumably it will appear by tomorrow? 11.3%? Q2 is always the busiest quarter and 11% is about the average over
the last five years but I am surprised it has managed to sustain that level! I await the official website pronouncement.

I cannot find the total number of sales in Q2 2008 in the ESPC paper. However, there is a wee graph entitled ‘Completed sales – East Central Scotland’, which shows the monthly sales figures. It is difficult to gauge an accurate figure from the graph, but the sales have been falling off dramatically since peaking in April. Trying to read off the axes of the graph, the figures look roughly like this:

April 2007 1,600 sales / April 2008 1,400 sales
May 2007 1,850 sales / May 2008 1,200 sales
June 2007 1,800 sales / June 2008 900 sales

No doubt you’ll have picked up a copy of the ESPC paper and seen the graph yourself by now.

I must say that the entire article, headed ‘ESPC Market Review’, is remarkably bearish.

I am also waiting for the breakdown of selected property types, such as Gorgie/Dalry 1-bed, Marchmont/Bruntsfield 2-bed, etc. I haven’t found this in the printed ESPC paper.

The other figures that I cited in my previous posting, the average sale prices since Q1 2005, were previously available in the various quarterly reports on the ESPC website. I made a note of them a few months back, for good measure. They are as follows:

2005 Q1 165,446
2005 Q2 178,789
2005 Q3 176,360
2005 Q4 176,960
2006 Q1 179,215
2006 Q2 200,637
2006 Q3 199,615
2006 Q4 197,207
2007 Q1 207,669
2007 Q2 227,912
2007 Q3 221,986
2007 Q4 215,168
2008 Q1 210,123
2008 Q2 233,840

Cheers Hillbilly. Just have to wait for the detailed figures, hopefully tomorrow.

So if thats right volume down by exactly a third since last year. And June down by 50%.

So its no wonder the sales figure is not whats expected? Could be skewed by what is selling?

Will just take time ................................... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Meanwhile over at myhouseprice looks very much like YoY negatives for Edinburgh coming up:

http://www.myhouseprice.com/marketanalysis...lysisCharts.cfm

As I have mentioned previously, and probably other Edinburgers have seen, in the early spring property was selling like hot cakes. I think the prices paid then, when most of the property that shifted at all over the quarter was actually sold, must have skewed things.

The prices paid then are just beginning to filter through to the various websites, and it seems that this really was the final rushing-in of fools. For instance, on 28 May the sale of 3 Thirlestane Road completed, for £293K. This flat had been advertised for OO 239, then 303 FP. It’s meant to be a two-bedroom flat, but in reality it’s a one-bedroom flat in which a kitchenette has been crammed into the box room – see the plan:
Click to view attachment
At what I previously thought was the height of the bubble, about a year ago, genuine two-bed tenement flats with boxrooms were selling for a bit over 300K, so for someone to pay 293K for this glorified one-bedder is just plain mad. Prices like this will inevitably have pushed up the average.

I read recently from the Scotsman that ESPC said stock is up 100% and transactions are down 80% compared with last year. So a perfect recipe for a Q2 increase NOT. ESPC Q2 figures are beginning to smell....no surprises then huh.

Are ESPC figures base on asking prices or completed sales.

(Edit) From up my street based on RoS figures...

link to site

or attached graph

so based on Ros figures a 12% fall from peak up to the 1st quarter up to 1st quarter 2008 alone.

I would guess around 15% once Q2's in.

I've decided to be more systematic about tracking the properties on my standard ESPC search, as I think it would be more productive to make a note of when things move to FP, how many FP, etc.

My standard search is for 2 bed flats between £150K and £225K in the town center (or nearly).

I am personally interested in 2 bed, with lounge and kitchen/diner, in a traditional tenement within 1 mile of a train station, so the reference properties are meant to be something like what I will consider buying myself... eventually.

Todays stats
Qty Properties: 206
Qty Fixed Price: 119
Number of search pages: 20
Page at which first property at £200K or over appears: 14

Reference properties for tracking (I've started out with lots, as they will diminish over time, I assume anyway)

3/7 Heriothill Terrace, Canonmills, EH7 4DZ Offers Over £155,000

6 Summerhall Square (3F2), Newington, EH9 1QD Offers Over £163,000

18/8 Montague Street, Newington, EH8 9QX Offers Over £169,000

18/2 Gardners Crescent,Fountainbridge, EH3 8DE Offers Over £169,000

6/3 Huntly Street, New Town, EH3 5HB Offers Over £179,000

6 Broughton Road (2F2), Broughton, EH7 4EB Fixed Price £181,000

16 North St Andrew Street, New Town, EH2 1HJ Offers Over £185,000

47/5 Blackfriars Street (2F2), Old Town, EH1 1NB Offers Over £185,000

59 East London Street (3F1), New Town, EH7 4BW Offers Over £185,000

5 Lord Russell Place (2F2), Newington, EH9 1NQ Offers Over £189,000

3/3 Admiral Terrace, Bruntsfield, EH10 4JH Offers Over £195,000

21 Viewforth Terrace, Bruntsfield, EH10 4LJ Offers Over £198,000

16/4 Brougham Street, Tollcross, EH3 9JH Offers Over £198,950

65 Viewforth (1F1), Bruntsfield, EH10 4LQ Offers Over £205,000

21/7 Henderson Row, New Town, EH3 5DH Offers Over £205,000

70b Broughton Street, Broughton, EH1 3SA Fixed Price £208,000 *

69 Broughton Street (3F2), New Town, EH1 3RJ Offers Over £210,000

26 Montpelier Park (3F2), Bruntsfield, EH10 4NJ Offers Over £210,000

32/3 East Preston Street, Newington, EH8 9QD Fixed Price £212,000

25 Eyre Place (1F2), New Town, EH3 5EX Fixed Price £215,000




Silly properties which I'll track just for laughs.

13 Jeffrey Street, Old Town, EH1 1DR Offers Over £175,000

29c Mayfield Gardens, Newington, EH9 2BX Fixed Price £185,000

5/23 Drummond Street, Old Town, EH8 9ET Fixed Price £185,000

14 Parkside Street (GFL), Newington, EH8 9RJ Fixed Price £189,995

160/1 Morningside Road, Morningside, EH10 4PX Fixed Price £205,000 *

13 Jeffrey Street (3F1), Old Town, EH1 1DR Offers Around £205,000 *

114 Canongate (3F2), Old Town, EH8 8DD Fixed Price £207,500 *

1 West Annandale Street, Bellevue, EH7 4JT Fixed Price £210,000

35/5 Cockburn Street, Old Town, EH1 1BP Fixed Price £210,000 *


* All of these were recently offers over in the region of £180K -£189K. Only I can't remember exactly, hence the starting of this list.

Self

Have you got propertybee yet? It'll make your tracking much easier.

No I don't have propertybee. Thanks for the note I'll look into it.

Very little change to report. We're still in the stalemate stage as far as I can see. Same number of properties, a couple have shifted to fixed price at about 10% over what their offers over price was.

Feels like the everybody is holding their breath.

zzzzzzzzzzz

every day i look at the espc

every day its the same

groundhog day!

Keep it up, I track a few properties myself but not as extensive as your search

<removed>

Finally got property bee in and working.

Some movement there, but only on 'contemporary' buildings, the traditional tenements are all sticking hard. The exception being one on Easter Road that has dropped from ball park £162K to ball park £155K.

This keeps going around in my head: I earn a good salary. If I can't afford to FTB who can? Not everybody has rich parents.

Updated Gorgie Watch:

I have been keeping an eye on Gorgie as a good barometer of the Edinburgh Market at the bottom end:

Up until Spring 2008:

One bed flats - Maybe a couple at less than 125k.*

17th May:

One bed flats - 8 at 120k or less.

20th May:

One bed flats - 13 at 120k or less.
One bed flats - 25 at 125k or less.

9th Jun:

One bed flats - 20 at 120k or less.
One bed flats - 32 at 125k or less.

27 Jun:

One bed flats - 22 at 120k or less
One Bed Flats - 31 at 125k or less

28 Jul:

One bed flats - 23 at 120k or less
One Bed Flats - 37 at 125k or less


* = Rough guess I wasn't actually count back then

So it looks like prices are still a little sticky. One punter has broken the barrier of 100k with a fixed price of 99k. Still not sold after 2 weeks. . Would infer that the chance of any of the others selling for 125k, even if they are 'contemporary' is close to zero.

This time next year I think one bed flats in Gorgie will be under 100k as standard. They should be more like 50-70k depending on condition/size etc..

Also there are more flats in Gorgie for sale now than at anytime I acan remember in the last 10 years.

20th May - 38 at 125k or less.
28th Jul - 58 as 125k or less.



I can now EXCLUSIVELY reveal that one bed flats in Gorgie had fallen by (IMO) about 20% in nominal terms already. That is if you want to actually sell one.

How long before we hear this in the press ?

Come on ESPC, we know you read this site. I have done the hard work for you. Pass this on to your buddies on the Scotsman. You must know as much as we do that sales are what matter to you guys. If lower prices mean more sales you want it just as much as we do.

You know what to do.

I have been tracking properties in my part of corstorphine since January now (mainly bungalows within a square mile). I tend to see about 10 properties on the go at any time give or take a few. I noticed this week all but one are now fixed price which is unusual - it has tended to be half or less on average. Two properties I thought had gone are also back on the market at reduced fixed prices. What is happening? I suspect people know the market goes into the doldrums every Q3+Q4 and want out quickly. I also suspect going by renewed credit crunch headlines that some buyers have pulled out for lack of mortgage availability.

As an aside, I compute the average of all OO and FP prices - not as good as actual prices but its trend should roughly resemble the actual trend since agents suggest the prices and they know what properties are currently selling for. Since January the average has fluctuated in a 280K to 350K range. The 280K low was hit in late Feb but then rallied to the 350K high in late May which is consistent with our normal Q2 bounce. It is currently at 336K.

A bit of real movement to report this week. 4 properties that I am watching in the £230k+ bracket have dropped their fixed prices this week. Granted only by a few thousand pounds not even by 10%, but it is a start. Buyers are going to see that and keep waiting and the falls will keep coming.

Funny the £150k - £200k prices aren't dropping at all yet, they are spending their time jumping back and forth between fixed price and offers over. I've seen properties go both ways with this.

Still properties adding 'incentives' though I have to say to me they are 'dis-incentives' they immediately make me ask 'What is wrong with this flat that you can't sell it?'

For anyone tracking properties manually, I would highly recommend using Property Bee instead/as well. This now supports the ESPC, and is very useful for spotting changes as they occur.

Here are some things I've seen in Stockbridge/New Town in the last two weeks:

• Jul 16, Fixed Price £295,000 to Fixed Price £280,000 (-15K)
• Jul 19, Fixed Price £485,000 to Fixed Price £455,000 (-30K)
• Jul 21, Fixed Price £240,000 to Fixed Price £225,000 (-15K)
• Jul 27, Fixed Price £365,000 to Fixed Price £350,000 (-15K)
• Jul 27, Fixed Price £399,950 to Fixed Price £380,000 (-20K)
• Jul 27, Fixed Price £325,000 to Fixed Price £315,000 (-10K)
• Jul 29, Fixed Price £225,000 to Fixed Price £205,000 (-15K)
• Jul 29, Fixed Price £335,000 to Fixed Price £325,000 (-10K)
• Jul 29, Fixed Price £295,000 to Fixed Price £270,000 (-25K)
• Jul 30, Fixed Price £239,000 to Fixed Price £229,000 (-10K)

These are around 5-10% reductions, so not a huge movement - however these are just the reductions in properties that are staying at FP. Quite a few are flipping back and forth between OO and FP, but unlike previous years this tactic doesn't seem to be much help in shifting them.

There are 6826 properties from the ESPC logged in Property Bee, vs 10410 on the ESPC site - so there's about 65% coverage at present.

Ditto the property bee thing. I'm using it now, though the sidebar doesn't always update when I think it should.

I concur with a reasonable number of small drops happening. Hopefully its the first few pebbles of an avalanch!

Have to say where I am (Morningside) I don't think we'll see that many price drops. Stuff that is coming on the market at 15% below peak prices is selling fast. The rest of the stuff just sits there for months unchanged. So no price drops ever to see on PB! Maybe people will start to drop as winter approaches!

Er, does that not mean that in the last 6 months property in Morningside has dropped by 15%? Seeing the same sort of thing in the New Town. Property that is moving is doing so at 2006 prices..... Another 18 months of that sort of action and I migh be tempted to step in myself!!!

Yep, that was my point. Not much supply coming on at those sort of prices though. I would imagine the transaction figures are going to be nearly zero!

Been keeping a track of rents in Edinburgh on another site so thought I should add here:

Search for 2 bed flats in Edinburgh area.

LETTING WEB:

7 April 2008:

£600-£700 = 265 flats
£700-£800 = 124 flats
£800-£900 = 47 flats

12 July 2008:

£600-£700 = 265 flats
£700-£800 = 159 flats
£800-£900 = 64 flats

So according to Letting Web rentals properties are in fact increasing in supply. There are more added to the higher brackets, but not by a huge amount.

CITYLETS:

7 April 2008:

£600-£700 2 bed in Edinburgh = 241
£700-£800 2 BED In Edinburgh = 141
£800-£900 2 bed in Edinburgh = 78

12 Jul 2008:

£600-£700 2 bed in Edinburgh = 271
£700-£800 2 BED In Edinburgh = 198
£800-£900 2 bed in Edinburgh = 121

Similar results from CityLets.

So it doesn't look like rents are shooting up in Edinburgh by any means. I think we will have a short period where landlords try and raise rents and some people give in. Then I think the rental supply will increase even more as builders etc.. add to the pile along with the Polish leaving. People will start to lose jobs etc.. so will move in with mates, become a lodger or move back home with parents.

Rents will then fall in line with affordability as they have to.

Todays stats
Qty Properties: 195 (Down 8, though 8 new came on so 8 have sold or fallen off the search)
Qty Fixed Price: 113
Number of search pages: 20
Page at which first property at £200K or over appears: 13 (down from 14, more properties coming down from above?)

Some properties are dissapearing off of property bee so there may be some selling going on, or at least things being taken off the market now. Sadly no evidence of dramatic drops in the last month. I wonder if things will look different at the end of September?

My standard search is now showing 193 properties, down from a peak of 205 a couple of weeks ago, so things are now going off the market faster than they are coming on to it, though not by much.

Quite a lot of the properties are still recently fixed up ones that look like they've been 'flipped' there are only a few that are ex-HMOs or estate sales from the look of things.

Lots more price reductions now, 9 properties with reductions of 5% or more in just the last 4 weeks. All are still on the market; mind you I'm not convinced that my property bee sidebar is always very good at updating it doesn't remove properties when they are no longer listed and it doesn't catch all the price changes.

SELFDOIT and CCC

You will have to poll your posts to get a true reflection..

even though the no. for sale is falling the no. to let is rising...so a general assumption if we assume no houses sold is that the 'for sales' are transferring ' to let'...

I know two couples who were advised to rent the property out because they couldn't sell.
The idea being that people will be going buy-mental again soon?
Or is it the case that EA's don't like dead property sitting on their books?

Seriously though, the simple fact that EA's are advising sellers to hold out shows how ******ing inept and untrustworthy they are.

I totally agree Delboy and Geneer. I also know 3 people who have been advised to 'Just rent it out instead'. Now i did coin that phrase (I think) on this very site in the main forum so I hope it takes off !!!

Thing is these people have been told that rents will rise and so they can just wait 6-12 months till this all 'blows over' and then sell for the peak price of Summer 2007 !! Some hope that a mess that has been building for almost 10 years is going to clear itself up in 6 months.

I do point out to these people the one basic flaw in their plan. If everyone is being told to 'just rent it out instead' then rents are only going to go one way. It sure isn't up...

I agree, but that is the lesser flaw in their plan. If they were STRing, all well and good. If, as is more likely, they were selling to buy elsewhere, they are now doubly exposed to a housing crash that will turn people off 'owning' (renting money to have title(ish) to) property for a long time to come.

I wonder how many EAs are insured (or regulated by the FSA) to dole out financial advice such as retain a crashing asset and lease it out? I see a field day for the lawyers beckoning.

http://www.myhouseprice.com/marketanalysis...lysisCharts.cfm

Thing is, if you look at the Edinburgh chart (these are based or ROS figures), Edinburgh Prices are sawtoothing.

Of you look at the Scotland chart, figures are once again rising up to pre-crunch levels.
So whats going on? Bull trap?

Sales are down 50%. I have an inkling that the larger (money no object) properties are still selling, and this is having a skewing effect on the averages.

Certainly prices aren't rising for the typical FTB type properties.

Anyone have any idea whats going on?

I don't quite understand some of the stats either, the market is a stagnant pile of shite at the moment.

Properties I have been watching have not moved, gone on for rent, or are sliding ( albeit slowly)

The denial amongst the vendors is painfull!!

Down £10K

Link

Wow 465K down to 455K, clearly this price adjustment has made all the difference and makes this overpriced bungalow REAL value now...............I'd be snapping their hands off

It seems to be a market of two halves at the moment for sure: the 1-bed flats in some of the sketchier areas are now hovering around 2005 prices as far as I can see from casual ESPC browsings but the 'desirable' areas like Morningside and other good suburbs seem to be holding fast for now. It's frustrating but I do recall the wider UK market being at a similar stage towards the end of 2007, before the big drops started. Price growth slowed but only the rubbish properties were seeing discounts - cue a deluge of VI rubbish at the time about good homes in good areas not being blighted. Then around May/June of this year, that all fell apart as the big annual drop was announced.

If you were a first-time buyer now on an (allegedly) average salary of 25k you could almost afford to buy if you were just looking for a toe on the ladder and didn't mind losing the Bank of Mum and Dad's 20% deposit over the next 5 years as the property drops in value.

Looking at ESPC, if you were on £25k and wanted to get your foot on the ladder, assuming 3 times income and some form of deposit, you could maybe afford two or three stinking flats, period.

I'm sick of all this waiting. Last weekend I went to some stunning showrooms. Amazing 4 bedroom houses with a garage, garden, study etc, outside of town for £230k. Get those prices down fast dammit. I can't stay at home forever, and rents are shooting up, so I refuse to waste money and fill some landlord's pockets.

You know how skewed things have become when its possible to consider a house costing a quarter of a million and not fall off your seat.
We really do live in the moment.

Add the interest over the term and it gets really scary. People say a million pounds would change their lives; but it's a figure comparable with that of a modern house!

There are actually a few places on there that are starting to look affordable on a normal mortgage now. This place, for example, is interesting because it would probably rent for about £400-450 but if you were buying it with a 10% deposit, you'd be paying about £550 as a mortgage per month so it's not far off the rental value. Obviously, you would need to be insane to buy now, especially this place as it looks like a dump, but there were about 150 properties in the 85-100k price range in the Edinburgh area like it.

If you use the rental value as a guide, prices on the fringe of the market are starting to get level with rents so that's a good sign. Don't get me wrong: obviously 92k for a 1-bed, ground-floor flat on a sketchy street off Leith Walk is a joke but it's not far off the £70-80k these places were going for in 2005 and not far off the rental value either. We just need patience to see this kind of pricing edge its way up the value chain...

My ESPC searches are showing about the same number of properties (194) still down from the peak of (206) a few weeks ago, but not by much. A dozen or so new properties have been added, so a similar number have been removed. Obviously some of these may have sold.

No big price shifts to report, everybody still sitting tight or switching to FP. Tiny drops on some of the higher end properties. Sigh.