I'm looking at having a small interest in shorting either CWD or PAG for the DEC 2005 prices. (Nothing heavy - mainly a bit of fun, otherwise I'd consider doing both)

I'm not sure which one is best to go for, looking at the charts both companies have increased quite dramatically since 2001(ish) and both are going to be suffering if HPI start to fall dramatically in the summer.
CWD will also be feeling the effects of a stagnant market and perhaps could be a safer bet?
The chart for CWD around 1989/90 is quite interesting as they appeared to have reactly quite quickly to a falling market.
PAG on the other hand, I think will fare badly once BTL's realise the jig is up and are probably more sensitive to interest rates changes. Not sure how quickly this will respond though....

Any opinions appreciated?