Just thought I’d post my thoughts.

I’m a little perturbed by the reaction of some folk who are taking obvious
delight in the crumbling housing market.

Schadenfreude at it’s ugliest.

However, the contraction of the value of most people’s largest asset should not to
be taken lightly.
OK, some BTL’ers jumped on the easy-money wagon and are now getting their digits well and truly singed.
But for most, equity in one’s home is the barometer of financial security.
Erode this and you erode the confidence that allows homeowners to buy goods and services that pays wages for millions of people.

The whole UK economy has drifted towards this dependency on housing equity. A 20% correction will be painful but probably manageable.
The realms of 40-50% would be catastrophic for EVERBODY - whether homeowner or not.

So yes a 3 bed semi in the south east for £100k may sound like a fantastic deal but if you’re unemployed it might as well be £500k as regards affordability.

Be careful what you wish for.

If you'd been here for more than 5 minutes you'd realise that this has been discussed for oh, at least the last 3 years.

DO try and keep up.

So, I could go from a situation where I'm having to rent and chuck all my spare cash away as a deposit, to one where I have to rent and don't have any spare cash. Oooh, I'm quaking in my boots.

Sorry, but if you're already being kicked in spuds, the prospect of getting kicked in the spuds for a different reason isn't exactly the stuff of which nightmares are made.

(And, yes, I have been unemployed before, and yes, it does suck mightily.)

Jobs losses or not, there needs to be a painful correction to the norm 100% trouser pee'd.

We know how bad it will get. A massive fall in house prices will benefit me as I'm in a strong financial position. Be prepared, I am, so why should I feel sorry for those who aren't? After all, they have had their party at my expense so why shouldn't I now have mine?

I wish you'd bothered to read some threads on this site before posting such drivel.

I, like most, will be paying cash if its drops 40%.

Lets it crash hard and fast.

It doesn't matter if we wish for it or not.

It's coming.

Unless you have been saving up while the bubble expanded.

If you didn’t get a mortgage 4+ X your salary, get a car loan, max out some credit cards because you thought it was a stupid thing to do, all you can do is watch the car crash happen and be grateful you not in the front seat without a seat belt.

Surely the value of your bank balance should the barometer for your spending confidence,not the value of your mortgaged property.

First search results,

Careful What You Wish For . . .
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...hl=careful+What

Be Careful What You Wish For!
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...hl=careful+What

Be Careful What You Wish For....
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...hl=careful+What

Fishman says "equity in ones home is the barometer of finacial security.

Couldn't agree more but they should have thought about this before they mewed it all away. Bless.

No, no, schadenfreude at its most gorgeous.

I wish people would of had the sense not to think that the house was their bank balance.
I am really looking forward to the next five to ten years because of the opportunities it will bring for sensible savers and not credit card junkies.

The market is not crumbling. It is just starting to move a tiny bit back to where it was before it inflated an outrageous 300%. That is not a crumbling, it is a necessary correction and it is something worth delighting in (if it continues). If the last three new cars you purchased inflated by 100% each time, then would you consider the car market would be crumbling if they returned back to sensible levels? Part of the hysteria about the "housing crisis" forgets that the real crisis was letting property reach staggeringly expensive levels and doing nothing about it. The constant theme of the press and media that the relatively tiny change in current values is a "disaster" leaves out the important point that all that borrowing and equity tied up in such an inflated asset has truly been a disaster for other more meaningful investment, and has resulted in a fluff economy based not on real wealth creation but notional values against which massive cash borrowing has caused a black hole to appear.

An adjusted and sensible housing market would free up all that wasted borrowing for more constructive avenues. Apologies for repeating this, but housing profit is not real wealth, it is merely the transfer of TAX PAID wealth from those who could not afford it, to those further up the line who used other people's income to withdraw equity and spend it on luxuries. Yes I am thoroughly delighted that this is finally coming to an end, and so should you be.

VP

Whoopeee! another 'be careful what you wish for' thread.......(yawn)

sounds like the OP is the one in the quicksand

So my current position is renting, £100K saved. House prices £200K.

Hypothetical housebuyer's (HH) current position: Buying, £180K mortgage, no savings, £20K equity.

Next year or two:

Me: no rent, £100K house, no mortgage, £5-10K savings, or, if inflation looks like ramping away, I'll get a mortgage for some of the house.

HH's position: Renting, £70K debt, no savings and no house.

Now when you put them side-by-side, I am open to accusations of schadenfreude. However, that is tempered by that fact that due to my thirft I have been priced out of the market as I wasn't prepared to lie for a loan at well over 3.5 times salary. Do I have sympathy for those who geared themselves into the stratosphere and caused prices to run so far away from me?

I believe you'll find sympathy somewhere between sh1t and syphillis in the dictionary.

And so we should, and everyone else. Cheaper homes are good for everyone - not just FTBers. The only people it isn't good for is those that have made stupid financial decisions based on the incorrect assumption that property prices only ever go up.


I would argue that property speculators' actions - as they drove prices ever higher by jumping on the Kirsty Allslop bandwagon - were also tinged with Schadenfraude - enjoying exorbitant lifestyles while their combined actions put the dream of owning your own house out of the reach of many desperate first time buyers. You'll find that the vast majority of people on this site have no sympathy for the BTLers and property speculators but plenty of sympathy for the average families that may have to face up to the horrible spectre of repossession.


Yes, but we are probably going to have to face up to 40-50% price declines because the housing bubble was so vastly over-inflated in the first place. A reversion to the norm is required, even though it may be very painful while UK PLC resets and reboots over the coming years.

Taking delight at the misfortune of others is never less than ugly. Unfortunately, it IS becoming all too common on this site While there have in the past been reasoned, intelligent, arguments presented and while there continue to be posts linking to housing-related articles I might otherwise have missed, the site does of late seem to have descended to a "look at this muppet who bought a house" / "it's all thr fault of immigrants" level.

In the past I've deliberately directed people towards the site. Now, to be honest, I'm too embarrased to.

what's wrong with calling people muppets who, thru their unthinking and greed, have destroyed their own finances as well as the broader economy?

oh sorry, shoot the messenger instead....

Nope. I've got a pile of cash thanks, dickhead!

As has been said by others... just differently:

The crash is only a symptom of the preceeding bubble. It was/is inevitable.

You'll find plenty of evidence on here of people trying to warn everybody in the months/years leading up to it that it was going to end in trouble, but they brushed our comments aside as 'tin foil hat conspiracists'. People didn't want to listen to us, and spoil their party.

What do you expect us to do now that all their predictions and warnings are coming true? Yes, of course humility is a course of action, however, these people jumping on the band wagon were laughing at us as they appeared to speed past us - now they are paying the price.

Nonsense, taking delight at the misfortune of others is a firmly entrenched tradition of Great England, particularly if it involves foreigners, or inhabitants of the county adjacent to yours. Ignoble? Sure. Displaying lack of magnanimity? Yep. Cathartic? Yessiree.

Oh and I bet you fancy Kirstie Allsopp, too.

With spelling like that I can understand.

You're being a drama queen. I remember widespread nominal house price falls of circa 40% back in the nineties, spread across most parts of the country. The world didn't end, life went on pretty much as before for most people, albeit with some much-needed belt tightening after earlier excesses. It's just the financial cycle in operation: boom and bust.

Many people will experience lower living standards in the future because of the profligacy of the government, the banks, and themselves. Just learn to cut your cloth accordingly and live within your means. A 40% reduction in curent house prices will eventually enable many people who are currently priced out to buy a home when the credit crunch finally eases, as it will. In the meantime they need to save a significant deposit as it will be the only way they will be able to borrow, just as it was in the not too distant past.

HA HA HA HA HA


I thought twice about replying to this thread, what with you being a bit of a newbie & all, but its been eating away at me.

My quality of life and that of my family has suffered over the last 15 years because of HPI.

HPI was caused by clever greedy people in banks, and stupid greedy people in houses they couldnt afford.

In a different way, my quality of life and that of my family will suffer for the next few years - probably another 15.

Whats the difference?

The stupid greedy b4st4rds that caused it all will be suffering along with us - probably more.

So I delight in their misery!

Watch me laugh out loud again


HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

EDIT - This made me laugh as well, I had to edit my original post as it contained too many emoticons!!! - thats a first for me. Just reflects the extent of my shadenfreud I suppose!

oh happy happy

one point of contention - I PROMISE you the banks were not clever at all. just greedy.

The quality of life enjoyed by many for the last ten years has been artificial. Not many can afford two holidays a year and brand new car every three years, designer clothes, plasma tvs etc. It was all done on the back of the rise in value of their house.

We are only going to see everyone's quality of life drop back to what it should be, where saving for items and being frugal is normal.

Maybe people will start to see the joy in the little things in life once they get less caught up in keeping up with the Jones.

I delight in:
Being able to afford a home for myself and my family
Not being made to feel like a leper for not over-extending myself
Yes, I delight in being right.

I don't delight in:
Families being turfed out of their homes.
People losing their jobs.

yes indeed. I also don't delight in moral hazard - bail outs should be limited, this is one way of helping to prevent the same pain occurring to another generation 15 to 20 years hence.

Fishman as this thread illustrates this forum is a honey pot to the delusional fringe of the online internet community.

I have been on this forum for 3 month, had the same thoughts as you and have not read a similar post to yours. Well done for posting.

You can take comfort with the thought that when the market bottoms out the lunatic fringe here will be too busy counting their emergency cans of corned beef and weighing their pile of rice, they will miss the bottom of the market and then spend the next 5 years telling themselves it is just a dead cat bounce.

No point directing them here now, those who thought something was wrong 4 years ago and found this site themselves will be prepared. The rest <shrug> dont really care. Our culture is pretty much destroyed after 12 years of labour rule. One things for sure, the immigrants will be amongst the first to leave.

Yes its all my fault -I talked the market down.

I will be really struggling if prices went down 50% with my money in inverse shares waiting to buy in cash.

To all the people who have cash how have people cashed in by owening a house?.
How are you going to keep it safe in such a catostrofic crash happened?
The only safe place would be under your bed providing some one desperate (which there will be a lot of people) does not break in and steal it.
The banks would not be safe and I doubt that the £32k per person per account would happen any more if a big bank went belly up.
In the mean time you would be lossing money because of inflation and you may be paing your rent with your cash as you are unenployed?
Your financial adviser may run off with your money.

If a 40% crash happens the country is without a paddle.

You may as well stick it in bricks and mortar at least a house will be there when it over
But in all seriousness it does not matter how much you have everyone stands to lose debt or cash if we go in to recession.
If you survive with you job and you have a house or cash at the end you will be in a good position a few years later.

Get it into perspective, it's no worse than somebody who rents having to move out when the BTL decides to sell or redecorate. Don't see much sympathy for these "families being turfed out of their homes" do we?

Agreed.

Meanwhile you take pomposity and generalisation to new levels.

You seem to be tarring people who, have suffered from and recognised from an early stage the damaging effect of HPI and are venting their anger at it being allowed to be promoted as a good thing, with the same brush as the 'lunatic fringe'. Of course we are happy that this madness is ending and I for one have little sympathy for everyone who has been involved in it. Naivety is not an excuse.

we can only hope when you have a family and house that it all hapens again (which it will) and you are one of the loosers perhaps then you may feel a bit more simpathetic.

In the mean time grow up!

Well, it is - those people can just move in to another rental. It's very annoying (been thru it myself 3 times and it's annoying enough when single), but you're not going to end up homeless. Being repossessed means homelessness - where are these people going to go? In order to get repossessed, you must have lost your job, and if there's no replacement job...

More like you haven't been on for three months yet hence you haven't seen this lame crap that has been said and agreed hundreds of times, as well as the fact that this is simply the exact opposite of the enjoyment people took in overstretching themselves(maybe you are one of them jumping on the bandwagon) and goes without saying. Common sense should rule, but it doesn't and so lessons must be learnt. Get used to this as many lessons will be learnt over the next 4 years.

Well he seems to have achieved a 3 page reply nevertheless !!

Be careful of [not with] that cash.

Could be good for stuffing your mattress one day and little else.

With the levels some folk have stretched themselves to, there will be quite a few repos this time where the borrower is still in a job. Job or no job, if your repayments are hiked more than you can afford when you come to remortgage and can only get SVRs at 2% and more what you were paying on the 'introductory' rate, in the words of the prophet, you're fecked!

Fishman, as a newbie please may I be the first to welcome you to HOUSEPRICECRASH.CO.UK, I too find it utterly bizzarre that on the whole, people who visit and contribute to this website called HPC.CO.UK actually welcome a huge fall in house prices, Freaks me out everytime I log in

Also a huge thanks for the warning as I for one would rather take advice from someone who is new to this mad forum as opposed to others that contribute and share information on a daily basis. Some of these idiots have been on here for years and although in the main, many, many if not most of the predictions have come true.

Pure luck if you ask me Don`t worry it`s probably a blip and I for one think Kirsty is misunderstood by the ignorant villains on this forum.

AWOOGA My friend

Isn't that where Krusty encourages BTL'ers to rub their hands with glee, at the prospect of 'housing' yet another priced out family, whilst themselves enjoying the benefits of ownership?

Not having a go, maybe you truly don't understand what makes an economy grow sustainably and competitively, and thus need to spend some time and grasp the very basics of economics.

Of course, there are people on this site that did not manage to get on the property ladder and are damning the unaffordable housing levels and only. And nobody can blame them for that. However, what is even more relevant is that the real estate buble has deformed the broader economy by arresting plenty of scarce capital that would normally go to produce something arguably more competitive for the global market.

Now that loads of capital have been mis-allocated it is only a major bust (bankruptcies, various voluntary business closings) that can return the British economy on track by making it produce something. This instead of everlasting borrowing to finance consumption against everlasting double digit annual increases in real estate prices. Also, bear in mind that empirical evidence (from the past couple of centuries, not 5, 10 or 20 years) suggests a very intuitive finding: that home prices on average rise at the pace of the growth in people's disposable income.

And the good news is that the UK is by far not the only credit addict; there are places in Europe where things are much worse, and the strong euro will only do more damage there. Say thanks that GBP isn't EUR and that legal system in the UK allows much easier firings, so things can be mroe fluid than anywhere else in Europe.

THE BOTTOM LINE: BE CAREFUL NOT TO WISH A BUST OR THE PAIN WILL LAST MUCH LONGER.

So what's keeping you here?

Delusional fringe? What are you on about you big numpty? This forum has been trying to warn the delusional masses of the imminent house price crash for years.


That would be Schadenfraude. Pot black calling kettle the.

I love all the anger expressed on this site. I've never felt like that about anything in my own life. It's fascinating. I guess this is what you get when people feel left out.

Anyway, in the interests of fairness, I've just written to Gordon and suggested that if things get really bad he should use tax payer money or simply print it to help support the market and keep the hard working families of Great Britain in their homes. Let's hope he is listening.