I noticed that the FTSE 100 closed yesterday (17/3/05) at 4922.10. Approx. 7.5 years ago (18/8/97) it closed at 4901.00.
My question is: do I really need exposure to an index that hasn't done anything in seven and a half years?
Why are trackers pushed so hard by say The Motley Fool for example? Seven and a half years is a very significant length of time for an investment product IMHO.
Will the time come when the stock market is written off as a place for investing "important" money like pensions etc.?
Full Version: Trackers - Do I Need One?
QUOTE(urban_hymn @ Mar 18 2005, 12:41 PM)
My question is: do I really need exposure to an index that hasn't done anything in seven and a half years?
Why are trackers pushed so hard by say The Motley Fool for example? Seven and a half years is a very significant length of time for an investment product IMHO.
Will the time come when the stock market is written off as a place for investing "important" money like pensions etc.?
Why are trackers pushed so hard by say The Motley Fool for example? Seven and a half years is a very significant length of time for an investment product IMHO.
Will the time come when the stock market is written off as a place for investing "important" money like pensions etc.?
In order:
Yes but not via tracker
Have they analysed your needs - of course not. They have some good ideas but low cost (sure) trackers is not one of them.
Yes and that will be the time to 'bet the farm'!
From 1966 to 1982 the Dow Jones did Jack Sh1t. Funny, we again have little inflation... yet we've just had a 50% rise in equities. I wonder what'll happen next...
QUOTE(Financial Planner @ Mar 18 2005, 02:44 PM)
Yes and that will be the time to 'bet the farm'!
Thanks for the free "advice". The farm is ready but how long to wait?
QUOTE(Financial Planner @ Mar 18 2005, 02:44 PM)
From 1966 to 1982 the Dow Jones did Jack Sh1t. Funny, we again have little inflation... yet we've just had a 50% rise in equities. I wonder what'll happen next...
That last sentence hangs in the air. I think it's meant to mean to something to readers with some knowledge of economic history. I will go and find chart of DJ and see if I can work out where you are coming from
QUOTE(urban_hymn @ Mar 18 2005, 03:48 PM)
Thanks for the free "advice". The farm is ready but how long to wait?
That last sentence hangs in the air. I think it's meant to mean to something to readers with some knowledge of economic history. I will go and find chart of DJ and see if I can work out where you are coming from
That last sentence hangs in the air. I think it's meant to mean to something to readers with some knowledge of economic history. I will go and find chart of DJ and see if I can work out where you are coming from
Sorry, didn't mean to be mysterious or anything.
Its just that then we were in a low inflation world and equities did nothing for nearly a couple of decades. We're again in low infl. Shares have gone up 50% in 2 years (after the crash) so they'll have to pull back - I guess from May/June or so. 20- 30% pullback would be about right.
I would guess there will be a pull back then a final surge up then cataclism for shares. time to pull out those farm deeds.
cheers
FP
QUOTE(Financial Planner @ Mar 18 2005, 05:04 PM)
Sorry, didn't mean to be mysterious or anything.
Its just that then we were in a low inflation world and equities did nothing for nearly a couple of decades. We're again in low infl. Shares have gone up 50% in 2 years (after the crash) so they'll have to pull back - I guess from May/June or so. 20- 30% pullback would be about right.
I would guess there will be a pull back then a final surge up then cataclism for shares. time to pull out those farm deeds.
cheers
FP
Its just that then we were in a low inflation world and equities did nothing for nearly a couple of decades. We're again in low infl. Shares have gone up 50% in 2 years (after the crash) so they'll have to pull back - I guess from May/June or so. 20- 30% pullback would be about right.
I would guess there will be a pull back then a final surge up then cataclism for shares. time to pull out those farm deeds.
cheers
FP
Cataclysm for shares in general or do you recon certain sectors will be exempt.
If all sectors, then where to put your money? Gold? Bonds (not likely)? Cash?
QUOTE(Financial Planner @ Mar 18 2005, 04:04 PM)
Shares have gone up 50% in 2 years (after the crash) so they'll have to pull back - I guess from May/June or so. 20- 30% pullback would be about right.
I would guess there will be a pull back then a final surge up then cataclism for shares. time to pull out those farm deeds.
cheers
FP
I would guess there will be a pull back then a final surge up then cataclism for shares. time to pull out those farm deeds.
cheers
FP
There must be shome mishtake. My Moneyweek magazine doesn't make any mention of this share wipeout your're talking about.They're merrily tipping commodities, oil etc. like there's no tomorrow. All the guest heavyweight fund managers they drag in to give their opinions aren't talking about this meltdown of yours.
I like my nice racy growth portfolio. I don't want to convert it into rotten lousy booze and fags stocks. (Defensive I believe they're called)
QUOTE(urban_hymn @ Mar 18 2005, 04:40 PM)
There must be shome mishtake. My Moneyweek magazine doesn't make any mention of this share wipeout your're talking about.They're merrily tipping commodities, oil etc. like there's no tomorrow. All the guest heavyweight fund managers they drag in to give their opinions aren't talking about this meltdown of yours.
Er, commodities are not shares. OK, commodity companies are. However, my view is comms will do well while the developed world does not fall flat on its face and China stops producsing 'cos there's no-one to buy.
I believe this will happen and oil, steel, platinum, mining etc will dive. This is the HPC website so people here believe there will be problems in economies going forward. China is the driver up and will be down - preceeded by US slowdown. Commodities will come back again, bigger and faster. Particularly gold but not until it goes doewn first. $360? I know I don't know but I have convictions.
BTW I don't advise my clients on this kind of investing. I leave that to professionals.
cheers
QUOTE(FreekBear @ Mar 18 2005, 04:14 PM)
Cataclysm for shares in general or do you recon certain sectors will be exempt.
If all sectors, then where to put your money? Gold? Bonds (not likely)? Cash?
If all sectors, then where to put your money? Gold? Bonds (not likely)? Cash?
Hi FB
In my view, for the average private investor ie not trained trader/Lehmans/hedge etc no single asset class will give inflation-beatig returns to build retirement security. Active asset allocation between equities, bonds, cash, commodities and property (Oh yes!) is the way to go, moving gently between them as inv conditions indicate.
How about 60% bonds, 25% eqs and 15% cash in 2002
30% bonds, 60% equs 10% cash 2003 etc?
The thing is aim for double cash / triple inflation p.a. and your retirement is sorted - as long as enough is being salted away and tax efficiently etc etc
QUOTE(Financial Planner @ Mar 18 2005, 06:13 PM)
Hi FB
In my view, for the average private investor ie not trained trader/Lehmans/hedge etc no single asset class will give inflation-beatig returns to build retirement security. Active asset allocation between equities, bonds, cash, commodities and property (Oh yes!) is the way to go, moving gently between them as inv conditions indicate.
How about 60% bonds, 25% eqs and 15% cash in 2002
30% bonds, 60% equs 10% cash 2003 etc?
The thing is aim for double cash / triple inflation p.a. and your retirement is sorted - as long as enough is being salted away and tax efficiently etc etc
In my view, for the average private investor ie not trained trader/Lehmans/hedge etc no single asset class will give inflation-beatig returns to build retirement security. Active asset allocation between equities, bonds, cash, commodities and property (Oh yes!) is the way to go, moving gently between them as inv conditions indicate.
How about 60% bonds, 25% eqs and 15% cash in 2002
30% bonds, 60% equs 10% cash 2003 etc?
The thing is aim for double cash / triple inflation p.a. and your retirement is sorted - as long as enough is being salted away and tax efficiently etc etc
What do you mean by double cash/ triple inflatlion. Do you mean aim for 3x inflation as a return / 2x base Ir ?
If you have an isa wrapper for your shares, how do you stay within the ISA while moving away from equities?
QUOTE(Financial Planner @ Mar 18 2005, 06:13 PM)
Hi FB
security. Active asset allocation between equities, bonds, cash, commodities and property (Oh yes!) is the way to go, moving gently between them as inv
security. Active asset allocation between equities, bonds, cash, commodities and property (Oh yes!) is the way to go, moving gently between them as inv
Total agreement there, even on the property bit. A house for living in, once paid off is a nice chunk of money you don't need to find during retirement and it's not subject to market madness.
QUOTE(FreekBear @ Mar 18 2005, 05:36 PM)
What do you mean by double cash/ triple inflatlion. Do you mean aim for 3x inflation as a return / 2x base Ir ?
Yes
QUOTE(FreekBear @ Mar 18 2005, 05:36 PM)
If you have an isa wrapper for your shares, how do you stay within the ISA while moving away from equities?
Easy, just divest and reinvest within the wrapper. Or your inv manager will do it for you. Have I missed something complex?
QUOTE(Financial Planner @ Mar 18 2005, 07:09 PM)
Yes
Easy, just divest and reinvest within the wrapper. Or your inv manager will do it for you. Have I missed something complex?
Easy, just divest and reinvest within the wrapper. Or your inv manager will do it for you. Have I missed something complex?
Slaps forehead. I figured you could only invested in equities in a stock wrapper, didn't know you had bonds, gilt, etc available too.
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