2 Options which would you prefer?

Option 1:

Consumer confidence crumbles
Savings increase
MEW decreases
House Prices fall 15% over 2 years
House prices continue to fall 1 - 2% a year for the next 5.
Interest rates approx 4 - 6% during this time (ending at 6% in 7 years time)

Option 2

Consumer confidence crumbles
Savings increase
MEW decreases
House Prices fall 15% over 1 1/2 years
Rampant Global inflation in 2006 means interest rates increase from 5% to 8%
You have a 15% chance of being unemployed
Unemployment soars due to global competition
House prices fall another 20% 2006 -2008.

Option 2

option 2

option 2

you forgot the four horsemen

Option 2.

Assuming your falls are nominal (and not real), the second scenario is a much bigger crash.

I don't think we ever got 20% nominal falls when inflation was high.

Luckily I have a large amount of savings so I can afford to be unemployed for a while, if it came to that.

Option 1

I'm having a cheerful moment.

if we get away with option 2 the uk can consider itself lucky...

Do you mean the IMF, WTO, WB, and G7. Are they the four horsemen of the apocolypse!

LMAO

I was reading Roger Bootle's 'Money For Nothing' last night - couldn't sleep and although the book is a superb analysis of the current global economic situation his writing style, IMPO, is like wading through treacle.

Anyhow, I got to an interesting bit where he says he believes that the vast numbers of newly built flats/appartment blocks that have sprung up around the World in this current bubble will be pulled down in the years ahead as being economically unviable and, more importantly, that people will simply not want to live in them.

He goes on to argue that in the new deflationary model houses alone will not be of value rather the land on which they are built (This is very true in coastal regions of the US and the Med already) - i.e. location - will be the all important 'value' for a property.

Anyhow, he thinks the housing bubble will burst soon.

Option 2 is OK by me.

Option 3


John dipshit Prescott crashes one of his jags and dies in a fireball because the firemen are on strike and the army reserves are all in Iraq.

Did he give any indication as to what he thought may happen to the ones who bought them offplan at a 35% premium to 'market value' in the first place ?

The future for these people is truly horrific !!

Mmmmm 2

I'll go for the best option Ignoramus

option 100 (Futue Te Ipsum, Atque Canum Tuum!)

Don't speak Greek so if that was an insult it rather passed me by old bean.

If it wasn't an insult then it still passed me by.

option 2
ftw
dog eat dog.
Er hang on - isnt 7% quite an average interest rate any how?
It sounds like an ordinary life.

He talked generally about the entire global financial system, from shares to houses, now being on precarious ground.

What I believe he is arguing is that in the post-inflationary World of globalisation more and more people will say "Why shoud I pay a silly amount for a one bed flat in West London right next to the M4 when I can buy a mansion for the same amount in Florida or elsewhere?"

People will seek out quality of life and, as many of the jobs that traditionally people do in the UK disappear, many people will, adopting new careers, no longer have the desire or the need to live in rat runs or shoe-boxes - hence it will have a huge affect on the housing market.

option one with the plum duck soup and boiled rice.

Option 2

Without a shadow of doubt OPTION 2

option 2 plus nukes...lot's of nukes...

[SIZE=14][COLOR=red]

I mean 2

that sounds perfect, but can I kick him in the nuts just before he passes away?

Option 2


(wanted to join in the option 2 boom before I was locked out of the market)

I'm amazed so many want option 2.

Does the 15% chance of unemployment not deter anyone?

No, my rent would be paid by the government, and years of saving means im very good at living VERY economically without needing to use up any of my existing savings. Anyway my company is one that does better in recessions....

Its a beautiful day and all is well at twopey towers , so like TM , I'll go for a laid back cadburys caramel option 1

(Or Option 2 if I was guaranteed redundancy pay . That would be the ultimate for me!).

Option 1 is more likely. 20% over 5 years.

Option 2 may happen, but if you are convinced it will happen, you probably spend too much time reading this site or losing money in dodgy gold stocks.

Moosetea,

I don't think you'd get your rent paid if you have savings. There are savings limits which prevent you from claiming income based JSA. With savings, you're only entitled to Contributions based JSA for 6 months as a single person - about £50 per week.


M21er

I wish I could doodle .

So do I.

Option one would be okay, option 2 may be a bit too far

Option 2.

I'll take my chances on the unemployment risk.

I'm alright, Jack!

I Find this concept really interesting.......and I also agree with it too!

In Malaysia (for example) you could buy yourself a brand new 3-4 bedroomed house, with a garden & pool in a nice tropical & quite location near a beach for about 100,000 Quid (freehold).

With another 100,000 Quid in an off-shore account generating 5% PA tax free you would live quite reasonably in a country like Malaysia and never have to worry about a heating bill ever again! (Air-con does cost though).

My point is this, where would you rather be? The UK where you hand over half your slave wage to the Government and pay a fortune just to buy a small nasty box or somewhere in a 'developing' country and life the good life?

The choice is clear for me...............quality of life is the way of the future!

What about friends, family, culture, etc.? I've lived abroad, it's not all it's cracked up to be, and your priorities change as a result.

Agreed!

Living abroad isn't for everyone of course, personnally I have worked abroad for about 95% of my working life......so no problems for me.

Moving away from family, could be a welcome break for some perhaps?

Culture? I think you will find pleanty of culture in Malaysia or any where else in South East Asia, whether you like it and can adapt yourself is another matter?

OK I agree Malaysia would not suit everyone, but it may suit the more 'adventurous' Brits out there and the quality of life is good!

Cheers.

Ahh well.... move back to my parents then.... ;p

In the absence of option 3, then it will have to be option 2. No chance of me losing my job!

Option 3 would be complete economic armageddon, irate mortgage holders storm downing street, Gordon Brown ends up hanging from some piano wire in Parliament Square, Tony Blair has to escape in a helicopter and live in exile with George Bush (until Bush can invade to restore democracy), Kirsty and Phil are kicked to death by a mob of bankrupt BTLers, and John Wriglesworth dies allegedly in a failed attempt to reach the moon.

Should there be a decent crash (one that will be remembered like the big Wall Street crash that triggered the great Depression) there will be many irate negative equity rioters. I can't see people take it on the chin and in today's blame culture someone else is to blame so why not Tony. Forget for a moment irrational spending on Plasma TV, latest mp3 playing phones, nice motor thanks to MEW.

Let's call this option 3. A deep recession that will become a depression (worldwide). Hopefully it will be over in less than a decade.