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Fortune
In remembrance for the former silver thread, I thought I would start a new one. Silver chaps?
Fortune
Link to an article about the 'top' of silver:

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1204596000.php

Also another link about buying physical in the UK:

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1200926835.php
Errol
Silver up more than a dollar now.
Dopamine
what a ride!

I think I'm becoming addicted to silver. What do people think is the realistic target this year? People on the kitco forum are talking $100 by early 09. I can't believe we'll see over $25 myself, with much volatility on the way, but I'm not basing that on anything 'tangible'. Any analyst genius with an opinion care to comment?
jimmy_joe
It's gone off the chart!
Click to view attachment

Doesn't yesterday's correction look very small all of a sudden?
soldintime
Went to the silver investment summit in november 2007 - predictions by David Benminson www.polarpacific.com

target price of $2600 for gold by 2014, silver $180 by 2014.

Winner of Best book in the field of Finance/Investment/Economics in 2007 for Polar Perspectives.
PiXeL8r
Here's a few more great silver articles;

Why the silver price is set to soar - Moneyweek

The case for silver

Fortune
Silver Chart 07/03/08:

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/silver.png

Silver is bearish at the moment.
FLASH_2007
QUOTE (Fortune @ Mar 10 2008, 12:05 PM) *
Silver Chart 07/03/08:

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/silver.png

Silver is bearish at the moment.


I am hoping for a pullback in the short term $16-$18 dollars but long term I honestly think we may see $100+. I think while US money supply is in double digits the commodities boom will be one of dot com proportions as we see bear markets in both property and stocks.
Fortune
QUOTE (FLASH_2007 @ Mar 10 2008, 10:01 PM) *
I am hoping for a pullback in the short term $16-$18 dollars but long term I honestly think we may see $100+. I think while US money supply is in double digits the commodities boom will be one of dot com proportions as we see bear markets in both property and stocks.


Do you think the pull back will happen just before the Fed cuts interest rates, or after in May?
itzoverrover
we had a big pullback at $14, I can't imagine another meaningful correction until we get a good deal higher. I'll be watching the chart from 2000 and when I see the J-curve really taking hold I'll start to exit. As has been said here before, spreads at the top will be murderous if you try to sell then. Unless you sell privately wink.gif
Fortune
Silver chart:

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/silver.png

Bearish. Same as gold: prolonged correction in the making. Support at 15.5. and 16.5.
FLASH_2007
QUOTE (Fortune @ Mar 21 2008, 08:25 AM) *
Silver chart:

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/silver.png

Bearish. Same as gold: prolonged correction in the making. Support at 15.5. and 16.5.


I don't really understand any of these charts. Frizzers on the green energy investors site said that silver may return to the 200dma which looking at the chart is around $14-$15.
Ologhai Jones
QUOTE (FLASH_2007 @ Mar 21 2008, 09:37 PM) *
I don't really understand any of these charts. Frizzers on the green energy investors site said that silver may return to the 200dma which looking at the chart is around $14-$15.


200-day MA isn't on that chart! wink.gif

It is on this one, though:

Click to view attachment

One point that interested me was the similarity between the above silver chart and the gold equivalent below. Despite silver's drop being quite a bit more significant than gold's, so far at least, they both seem to have dropped to about the same point with respect to their 50-day MA:

Click to view attachment

Maybe there's something to charts after all! smile.gif
silversliver
for those who think the recent activity on silver is a pull-back or signal of a top - DREAM ON!

silver is in a completely different situation to any other base OR precious metal. if you dont believe this, try sourcing silver eagles or maple leaves from anywhere in the US or Canada right now. when silver takes off (and it hasn't even started yet), we will see a re-rating of an order of magnitude.

1) demand has outstripped supply every year of the last 15 - and for at least 60 years on average.
2) most if not all government inventories are now depleted.
3) the list of industrial uses grows (including solar panels), now more than making up for the loss from photography.
4) silver is both a precious and a base metal, meaning it's an inflation hedge and necessary for industry.
5) in many industrial applications there is no alternative - eg mirrors.
6) although silver has gone up over the past few years, the rise has been so slow (relatively) over the past few decades because there was always more in government inventories as an artificial supply. now this has gone, the sky's the limit.

I'm sorry i don't know how high silver could go - the recent increase in mining is producing a little more silver than previously, but still not enough to meet demand.

The market will also accept a price of silver many times its current price - eg if an industrial switch (or mirror etc) costs £2 to produce, with the silver accounting for 2p of that, if the price of silver times by 5 to 10p - noone would notice now paying £2.10 for the switch!

As for how to invest, i'd be split between an etf and holding bullion - there's a lot of concern that the etfs couldn't actually meet their silver committments due to a net short position.

like everyone i've said this to - do your own rsearch via google or anywhere else and the answer is inescapable. Good luck.
carseller
Warren Buffet, sold his gold in 2006 I think it was.

What the wise man does at the beginning the fool does at the end.
bleakhouse
QUOTE (silversliver @ Mar 26 2008, 06:17 PM) *
for those who think the recent activity on silver is a pull-back or signal of a top - DREAM ON!

silver is in a completely different situation to any other base OR precious metal. if you dont believe this, try sourcing silver eagles or maple leaves from anywhere in the US or Canada right now. when silver takes off (and it hasn't even started yet), we will see a re-rating of an order of magnitude.

1) demand has outstripped supply every year of the last 15 - and for at least 60 years on average.
2) most if not all government inventories are now depleted.
3) the list of industrial uses grows (including solar panels), now more than making up for the loss from photography.
4) silver is both a precious and a base metal, meaning it's an inflation hedge and necessary for industry.
5) in many industrial applications there is no alternative - eg mirrors.
6) although silver has gone up over the past few years, the rise has been so slow (relatively) over the past few decades because there was always more in government inventories as an artificial supply. now this has gone, the sky's the limit.

I'm sorry i don't know how high silver could go - the recent increase in mining is producing a little more silver than previously, but still not enough to meet demand.

The market will also accept a price of silver many times its current price - eg if an industrial switch (or mirror etc) costs £2 to produce, with the silver accounting for 2p of that, if the price of silver times by 5 to 10p - noone would notice now paying £2.10 for the switch!

As for how to invest, i'd be split between an etf and holding bullion - there's a lot of concern that the etfs couldn't actually meet their silver committments due to a net short position.

like everyone i've said this to - do your own rsearch via google or anywhere else and the answer is inescapable. Good luck.


I think you present the case for silver very well. And do it without mentioning any relationship to gold. In recent weeks it has shown itself to be more volatile than gold, but I feel that there is more up side potential. Previous posters have quoted gold as going to around USD2/3000, but silver in the USD100+ area, i.e. gold might double or triple but silver might rise 5 or 10 times. So thanks for your post.
As always what goes up can come down, just like house prices, so one must be prepared to move swiftly to protect one's self against loss.
Sadman
Why is VAT charged on silver, is there any way to get round it?
PiXeL8r
QUOTE (Sadman @ Apr 14 2008, 02:25 PM) *
Why is VAT charged on silver, is there any way to get round it?


Yes use www.goldmoney.com, you can buy gold or silver which has a regular audit and serial numbers quoted. Also you can sell for spot price at any time 24/7, which gets around the increasing spread problem.

There is no VAT on goldmoney silver, just a 4.99% commission which can come done to 4.19% as a member.
bleakhouse
http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-20-08.html

Very long but interesting.
Conclusion
QUOTE
The fundamentals for silver are still spectacularly bullish. Demand appears strong for as far as the eye can see, thanks to world growth, in particular from the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China.). Production, after a bump up in the next few years, looks constrained. Investors appear to have awakened to the potential in silver after ignoring it for decades. The silver ETF wasn�t even being discussed when the 2004 report came out. Today, it is devouring silver in incredible amounts. I can�t overstate the importance of silver investment demand surging precisely at the same time there is less silver available for purchase than ever before.

Cook: Anything else?

Butler: Most importantly, the issue of manipulation is much clearer and more pronounced today, than it was 4 years ago. Much has changed in four years. Concentration was not the issue in 2004 that it is today. Concentration tells you that the short side is being abandoned and that the few shorts remaining are having to short more in the futile task of fighting a rising tide of investor demand. The silver bargains will be gone the minute the tide overwhelms them, as it must.

Cook: Thanks for presenting your case.
xiox
QUOTE (silversliver @ Mar 26 2008, 07:17 PM) *
5) in many industrial applications there is no alternative - eg mirrors.

Ummmm.... aluminium? Silver is better for some mirror purposes though...
thod
Silver may outperform gold but the big problem is the 17.5% VAT you pay on buying the silver. There is also the problems associated with storing silver since has 50x the volume of gold. You are going to need a huge safety deposit box or pay a larger fee for allocated storage.

from wikki:

QUOTE
Photography used 24% of the silver consumed in 2001 in the form of silver nitrate and silver halides, while 33% was used in jewellery, 40% for industrial uses, and only 3% for coins and medals


That photography use is going the way of the dinosaurs with digital cameras.

I am more optimistic about platinum since production in SA is being hit by power problems to the mines and potential political instability. Rhodium has gone through the roof recently.
sign_of_the_times
can someone explain to me why peeps are paying £12-15 for 1oz coins and bars on ebay when the spot price is a little over £9/ounce ?

thod
QUOTE
can someone explain to me why peeps are paying £12-15 for 1oz coins and bars on ebay when the spot price is a little over £9/ounce ?


You should consider the spot price as a large quantity price. You will pay a premium over spot when buying from a bullion dealer since he is dealing in small quantities and must make his own profit over spot.

Coins are not simple bullion they frequently have a premium value to coin collectors. If you are looking at them as bullion then you should avoid the rare ones which demand the most premium.

Many precious metals in coin form are still considered legal tender in their country of origin. This gives them additional investment value over bullion in that they are exempted from capital gains tax should the value rise. For example if bought gold bullion you would pay CGT on any profits when you sell. If you bought gold sovereigns there is no tax to pay when you sell.
endgame
QUOTE (sign_of_the_times @ May 26 2008, 12:05 AM) *
can someone explain to me why peeps are paying £12-15 for 1oz coins and bars on ebay when the spot price is a little over £9/ounce ?


Where can you buy cheaper?

That is why peeps are paying £12-15 for an ounce of silver.

Americans can buy silver coins a little over spot but as usual, in rip off Britain we get err ripped off.
sign_of_the_times
QUOTE (thod @ May 26 2008, 01:32 AM) *
You should consider the spot price as a large quantity price. You will pay a premium over spot when buying from a bullion dealer since he is dealing in small quantities and must make his own profit over spot.

Coins are not simple bullion they frequently have a premium value to coin collectors. If you are looking at them as bullion then you should avoid the rare ones which demand the most premium.

Many precious metals in coin form are still considered legal tender in their country of origin. This gives them additional investment value over bullion in that they are exempted from capital gains tax should the value rise. For example if bought gold bullion you would pay CGT on any profits when you sell. If you bought gold sovereigns there is no tax to pay when you sell.


but only capital gains over 9k, right ?
endgame
QUOTE (sign_of_the_times @ May 26 2008, 12:07 PM) *
but only capital gains over 9k, right ?


No, sovereigns and Britannia's are exempt from CGT to any value.
sign_of_the_times
QUOTE (endgame @ May 26 2008, 09:47 PM) *
No, sovereigns and Britannia's are exempt from CGT to any value.


sorry, what I meant was I understand that I can earn about 9k p.a. on sale of bullion before CGT is payable (excluding exempt stuff) is this correct ?
endgame
QUOTE (sign_of_the_times @ May 26 2008, 10:42 PM) *
sorry, what I meant was I understand that I can earn about 9k p.a. on sale of bullion before CGT is payable (excluding exempt stuff) is this correct ?

From what I understand, yes and this can be doubled to £18,600 if you use wifes CGT allowance. So you can make £9,300 (£18,600) and then sell only sovs or brits and still pay no cgt.
burntgreenfinger
In the early 1920's a reasonable weekly wage was around £2 per week.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think this would have been 40 shillings or 8 crowns. If crowns are roughly 1 oz of silver and silver currently is £8.50 in todays prices £8.50 per oz * 8 = £68.00

An average wage is now about £400. That would buy you 47 oz of silver (6 x the amount in the 1920's)

Is it the case that silver is now historically incredibly cheap or that people 90 years ago could live off F*** all?

I'm sure that our great grandparents would regard silver, at this price, as being the deal of the century. Any thoughts?
id5
QUOTE (burntgreenfinger @ Jun 2 2008, 09:42 PM) *
In the early 1920's a reasonable weekly wage was around £2 per week.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think this would have been 40 shillings or 8 crowns. If crowns are roughly 1 oz of silver and silver currently is £8.50 in todays prices £8.50 per oz * 8 = £68.00

An average wage is now about £400. That would buy you 47 oz of silver (6 x the amount in the 1920's)

Is it the case that silver is now historically incredibly cheap or that people 90 years ago could live off F*** all?

I'm sure that our great grandparents would regard silver, at this price, as being the deal of the century. Any thoughts?


You are a only a bit out with your values, 1920 was a strange year due to inflation. The average wage in 1920 was £0.88 per day but only £0.61 per day across the decade of the 1920's, so the average wage for a five day week was 5 x £0.61 = £3.05. The average price of 1oz of pure silver was £0.15 and your wage could buy you 20.33oz of silver. In 1920 crowns had just been devalued and were now minted in 50% rather than 92.5% silver. So 20.33 x $16.79 = $341.34 / $1.96 = £174.15 in todays money so you are still correct in that silver is cheap, it is half the price that it used to be in the 1920's

Click to view attachment
burntgreenfinger
QUOTE (id5 @ Jun 3 2008, 07:36 PM) *
You are a only a bit out with your values, 1920 was a strange year due to inflation. The average wage in 1920 was £0.88 per day but only £0.61 per day across the decade of the 1920's, so the average wage for a five day week was 5 x £0.61 = £3.05. The average price of 1oz of pure silver was £0.15 and your wage could buy you 20.33oz of silver. In 1920 crowns had just been devalued and were now minted in 50% rather than 92.5% silver. So 20.33 x $16.79 = $341.34 / $1.96 = £174.15 in todays money so you are still correct in that silver is cheap, it is half the price that it used to be in the 1920's

Click to view attachment


Thanks for replying. I think that silver at these historically low prices constitutes pretty good value for holding in the medium term
crudeFool
QUOTE (burntgreenfinger @ Jun 2 2008, 09:42 PM) *
In the early 1920's a reasonable weekly wage was around £2 per week.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think this would have been 40 shillings or 8 crowns. If crowns are roughly 1 oz of silver and silver currently is £8.50 in todays prices £8.50 per oz * 8 = £68.00

An average wage is now about £400. That would buy you 47 oz of silver (6 x the amount in the 1920's)

Is it the case that silver is now historically incredibly cheap or that people 90 years ago could live off F*** all?

I'm sure that our great grandparents would regard silver, at this price, as being the deal of the century. Any thoughts?


Hi

**IF** STFHT over the next few years, you'll be glad to have any PM in your hand. Silver and gold are cheap - all commodities are. Paper is multiplying like tribbles - welcome to the Weimar world...

Regards,
crude.
thod
I still cant make the numbers work for silver.

Suppose I bought a sovereign for £250 and prices double then I make £250.
If I had bought that in silver I would get $212.77 of metal due to vat. It would have to rise £416.67 to £629.44 assuming I would pay 40% CGT.

So to make the same profit, if gold doubles then silver would have to treble. All these stupid taxes distorting investment products.
endgame
QUOTE (thod @ Jun 3 2008, 10:34 PM) *
I still cant make the numbers work for silver.

Suppose I bought a sovereign for £250 and prices double then I make £250.
If I had bought that in silver I would get $212.77 of metal due to vat. It would have to rise £416.67 to £629.44 assuming I would pay 40% CGT.

So to make the same profit, if gold doubles then silver would have to treble. All these stupid taxes distorting investment products.


VAT on silver coins can be 7%. I think silver Britannia's are also exempt from CGT and there is an allowance of £9300 before you pay CGT. If you sell them privately then what difference does that VAT make? For example, If I buy a britannia for £13.50 including vat and then sell it privately for £13.50 what difference does the vat make?
prophet-profit
http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=11&id=238

special on Philharmonics at present
tinecu
QUOTE (prophet-profit @ Jun 13 2008, 02:53 PM) *
http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=11&id=238

special on Philharmonics at present


cheers for the tip
roman holiday
Hi all,

I have been umming and aarring for a while now and have finally decided to put a considerable amount of money into physical silver. Only thing is I can not decide between big bullion bars or coins... or both.

Any suggestions? blink.gif
prophet-profit
QUOTE (roman holiday @ Jun 15 2008, 09:40 AM) *
Hi all,

I have been umming and aarring for a while now and have finally decided to put a considerable amount of money into physical silver. Only thing is I can not decide between big bullion bars or coins... or both.

Any suggestions? blink.gif


Well if you're asking for an opinion............

Look at that offer for the philharmonics I posted (three posts ago). These are a new coin and are being discounted because of this (yet thay are still an ounce of silver). Next year they will not be new and as such will probably fetch similar prices to kookaburras, eagles and maples (not brittanias unfortunately sad.gif )

With regard to bars or coins, I prefer coins because you can add/sell to and from your collection in low quantities as you wish.

Here's another tip: when eBay do their 5p listing fee on selected Thursdays, book some and put up coins at above market rate prices - if you don't sell, you lose 5p per listing, if you do sell you just pay final valuation fees on top (try to avoid taking paypal as a payment option because it's a rip off) but can ultimately sell for higher than you are buying.

Using that strategy you can realise some profit from your collection whilst keeping the core amount relatively the same (just buy in at reduced rates from c.i.d etc.)

I know this approach is not for the big players but adds a bit of spice for us small time enthusiasts

bottom line - the Philharmonics are good value at the mo IMHO

edit - grammar
narco
QUOTE (prophet-profit @ Jun 15 2008, 11:02 AM) *
bottom line - the Philharmonics are good value at the mo IMHO

edit - grammar

Excellent price imo. I'd even argue that you will never be able to buy one ounce silver coins at £10 per ounce ever again.

I have 50 of these and put them alongside maples. Not the nicest looking coin (compared to lunars, kooks, pandas) but you aren't investing in looks. wink.gif
roman holiday
QUOTE (prophet-profit @ Jun 15 2008, 11:02 AM) *
Well if you're asking for an opinion............

Look at that offer for the philharmonics I posted (three posts ago). These are a new coin and are being discounted because of this (yet thay are still an ounce of silver). Next year they will not be new and as such will probably fetch similar prices to kookaburras, eagles and maples (not brittanias unfortunately sad.gif )

With regard to bars or coins, I prefer coins because you can add/sell to and from your collection in low quantities as you wish.

Here's another tip: when eBay do their 5p listing fee on selected Thursdays, book some and put up coins at above market rate prices - if you don't sell, you lose 5p per listing, if you do sell you just pay final valuation fees on top (try to avoid taking paypal as a payment option because it's a rip off) but can ultimately sell for higher than you are buying.

Using that strategy you can realise some profit from your collection whilst keeping the core amount relatively the same (just buy in at reduced rates from c.i.d etc.)

I know this approach is not for the big players but adds a bit of spice for us small time enthusiasts

bottom line - the Philharmonics are good value at the mo IMHO




edit - grammar


Yep... thanks...I did notice those Philharmonics you posted. They look like nice coins. My problem is I am transient. I will be in NZ for a few months, will it be possible for them to ship say 8 ks worth to me??

I was thinking of using the New Zealand Mint... maybe buying half in big bars and half in bullion "silver ferns"
https://secure.newzealandmint.com/nzmint.mv...ullion_products

[Bit of trivia; the silver fern is actually a real fern unique to NZ. When trampers were lost they would cut these ferns, place them on the ground silver side up in the hope of being rescued by a spotter plane.]


I will have to store in a safe-deposit box... less than ideal I know... and have my misgivings about it.. but I really do not want to be out of silver at the mo.
prophet-profit
QUOTE (roman holiday @ Jun 15 2008, 12:24 PM) *
Yep... thanks...I did notice those Philharmonics you posted. They look like nice coins. My problem is I am transient. I will be in NZ for a few months, will it be possible for them to ship say 8 ks worth to me??

I was thinking of using the New Zealand Mint... maybe buying half in big bars and half in bullion "silver ferns"
https://secure.newzealandmint.com/nzmint.mv...ullion_products

[Bit of trivia; the silver fern is actually a real fern unique to NZ. When trampers were lost they would cut these ferns, place them on the ground silver side up in the hope of being rescued by a spotter plane.]


I will have to store in a safe-deposit box... less than ideal I know... and have my misgivings about it.. but I really do not want to be out of silver at the mo.


With regard to the int. shipping, i don't see why it would be a problem, but then you would have to bring them back with you eventually.

IIRC, SteveNetwriter is a kiwi and posts a lot on Dr. Bubbs website so maybe he's the man to ask re NZ holdings

Don't you have any relatives based in the UK who could hide your stash? wink.gif
roman holiday
QUOTE (prophet-profit @ Jun 15 2008, 01:41 PM) *
With regard to the int. shipping, i don't see why it would be a problem, but then you would have to bring them back with you eventually.

IIRC, SteveNetwriter is a kiwi and posts a lot on Dr. Bubbs website so maybe he's the man to ask re NZ holdings

Don't you have any relatives based in the UK who could hide your stash? wink.gif


Yes... I have noticed his posts. Have visited the site a few times [GEI right?], even joined, but for some reason I am unable to post. sad.gif Very frustrating.
Livininabox
QUOTE (prophet-profit @ Jun 13 2008, 02:53 PM) *
http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=11&id=238

special on Philharmonics at present


I notice you pay 7% VAT on these. I believe they are shipped from Germany. Does anyone know if you get hit with additional VAT if delivered to the UK?

Cheers
prophet-profit
QUOTE (Livininabox @ Jun 16 2008, 10:04 AM) *
I notice you pay 7% VAT on these. I believe they are shipped from Germany. Does anyone know if you get hit with additional VAT if delivered to the UK?

Cheers


Hi - I had assumed it was a one-size-fits all approach for all EU member states?

'Brutto Price includes 7% VAT for customers from the European Union'
Livininabox
QUOTE (prophet-profit @ Jun 16 2008, 10:37 AM) *
Hi - I had assumed it was a one-size-fits all approach for all EU member states?

'Brutto Price includes 7% VAT for customers from the European Union'


Well I kinda thought that too but Gordy & Al need every penny they can lay their mitts on. Any advance on 7% anyone?

Ps. Excellent music links PP
thod
You could always buy on ebay and avoid it all together.
prophet-profit
QUOTE (thod @ Jun 16 2008, 12:35 PM) *
You could always buy on ebay and avoid it all together.


There's no doubt you can get some good deals on kilo bars (one sold on Friday for £350) but I think CID is still cheaper with coins (esp. in bulk)

Interestingly, it looks like someone's been shopping on CID and is pushing up the margins on ebay:

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/2008-1oz-Silver-PHIL...Q2em118Q2el1247

edit - typo
blackbear
QUOTE (prophet-profit @ Jun 16 2008, 01:37 PM) *
There's no doubt you can get some good deals on kilo bars (one sold on Friday for £350) but I think CID is still cheaper with coins (esp. in bulk)

Interestingly, it looks like someone's been shopping on CID and is pushing up the margins on ebay:

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/2008-1oz-Silver-PHIL...Q2em118Q2el1247

edit - typo


And it looks like he's sold a few.

Also looks like the CID special offer is gone, I bought some this afternoon with the offer and the difference with what I would pay now is 64 pounds cheaper smile.gif Thanks for the tip.
prophet-profit
QUOTE (blackbear @ Jun 16 2008, 07:44 PM) *
And it looks like he's sold a few.

Also looks like the CID special offer is gone, I bought some this afternoon with the offer and the difference with what I would pay now is 64 pounds cheaper smile.gif Thanks for the tip.


I got in today as well, so I'm quite pleased myself.

expect to see more philharmonics up on ebay soon!!



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