QUOTE(margesimpson @ Oct 19 2007, 10:04 AM)

The number of Northern European buyers who buy in Spain for a second home is very overplayed by the media. In the first quarter of this year, only 2,596 properties were sold to non-residents in the whole of Spain. The reality is they are no longer buying in Spain in any numbers. Like you they are going elsewhere.
Compare that figure to the 630,445 housing units that have been started during the last 12 months.
It is sheer madness to suggest that there has never been a better time to buy in Spain. I don't think there has been a worse time. And the property developers and those committed to buy here can kid themselves all they like, but that's the truth.
ForestFire – out of your 21 posts all of them are identical, talking of a crash in Spanish Property and using the same stale arguments. I am guessing from the content that you live in Spain, would like to buy but currently rent. I can sympathise with this position as I am doing much the same in the UK. I believe prices will fall by as much as 30-40% in the UK over the coming years and that is why I will put forward a bearish argument on the state of the UK housing market. I assume you feel frustrated at high prices in Spain and wish the market would crash as you predicted was happening back in November 2006 when you first came to this board. Unfortunately I think the two markets differ quite substantially and you may find the whole UK market crashes whilst the Spanish Market drops unevenly according to areas. It would be unfair for me to simply make this comment so let me explain my reasoning behind this and also dispel some of the myths often repeated on this board:
• Unfortunately some people are quite new to Spain and therefore get a little confused. When I first visited Spain in the early 80’s vast areas along the coast consisted of “ghost town” developments. These urbanisations were literally less than 10% occupied. The reason for this is very straightforward. For years the Spanish have purchased holiday homes on the coast. These homes are then visited in August and other holiday periods. So for 10 months of the year the shutters come down and the apartment/villa is left empty. British, German and other Europeans also have done the same so this is often the reason why in off peak times these developments look unoccupied. Go into the local town and the streets are bustling with markets and people watching the World go by. Often at peak times/weekends the population of an area will quadruple as people come to stay in their holiday homes.
• The number of people buying in Spain is often underplayed by the media and the official figures paint a different picture to the reality. Close to 2 million homes are owned by UK ex-pats or UK residents. Figures such as 2,596 non residents buying in Spain hide the true figure of around 20,000 sold to foreigners (resident and non-resident) in that same quarter. That constitutes around 80,000 homes per year….in a so called crash!!!!!!!!. What tends to cloud the argument is the fact that many people will either buy through Spanish trusts/offshore companies to avoid tax or become residents to decrease their CGT tax burden. Unfortunately certain people will make stats look as they please because they are trying to talk down the market. These are often people who live in Spain but currently rent, frustrated that UK residents are still buying property and keeping things buoyant.
• Spain has always had a four tier property system. To understand this is to then start understanding the way the market works over there.
The first Tier of property is often called “first line” but more recently a few golf/leisure developments can be included (although only about a desirable 5%). These properties are the ones within a few minutes (500m) of the sea whether that is beach, marina or fishing town.
Second Tier properties are those that are classed as being in a resort but can often mean walking for 5 or 10 minutes to get to the beach/harbour/town centre.
Third Tier properties are those inland. These rural properties are often in a distressed state or a new development offering very cheap houses with land. This tier also includes the popular apartment blocks seen in inland towns populated by the majority of Spanish locals.
Fourth Tier properties are City properties. These are expensive apartments or houses that are within a 10km radius of a City Centre.
So in Spain at the moment the majority of first tier properties are still hard to come by. These properties are often priced to reflect this demand but supply is restricted. These are the properties literally selling like hot cakes. I know because this is the type of property I am looking to buy at the moment and I simply cannot get my hands on anything.
Now where the problem exists in Spain is in the Second Tier. Go a mile inland and you are confronted by millions upon millions of acres of scrubland. Very much like Australia, apart from a few areas Southern Spain is built on the coast. So when a Developer approaches a farmer and offers to buy 30 acres for £100,000 the farmer snaps his hand off. The developer then builds 200 apartments, builds a couple of pools and landscapes the land around the complex and starts selling them for £100k a piece. Because of increased demand and therefore prices for first tier properties this was a lucrative business for Spanish developers. They soaked up all of the disappointed Brits who expected to buy first tier properties with their MEW money (old 1999/2000 rerun episodes of Place in the Sun were to blame). These Brits flew over in their thousands during 2001/2002/2003/2004, newly acquired equity in their homes was burning a hole in their pockets. So there they were with £100k to spend and they were herded by the big Spanish EA’s on their “inspection visits” to these two tier developments. They were in the sun and they had a pool and they were only a short drive from the beach and the town…may be even a 15 minute walk. So they started buying. Some of the more ambitious developers such as Polaris World even went to the lengths of building golf courses to attract people away from the “first tier”. It was a great success but it of course had a limited life span. Soon the Brits with their equity money would slowly dry up and worst of all these Brits had this obsession with making money so they all expected to get some kind of huge return on their property. As a result they expected every new phase and every new development to be 10%+ more expensive but the Developers knew this would soon price people out and decrease demand even further…..after all the whole idea was to offer a cheap alternative to “First Tier”. Anyway the scenario has played out as predicted, their now lies 300,000 of these second tier properties and a bunch of Brits trying to sell. Slowly and surely these developers are disappearing and the building has stopped. The second tier is no longer a gold mine but a money pit. Expect up to 30% falls on some of these developments. Some developments offering exceptional views or facilities may retain their value.
Third tier properties have been blighted by the increasing number of Brits buying up barns and outhouses for £30k believing they have bought a bargain. The business of renovating these and then selling them for £80k is still ticking along but has dramatically slowed in the past year or two as this money moves to Eastern Europe. The people paying £30k - £80k are now looking in Bulgaria and Morocco. As for apartments within towns these are still fairly reasonably priced but because of increased immigration of South American farm workers wages have been depressed and this makes it quite difficult for people to afford £60k - £80k in Spain. These properties will drop by 10-20% and improved labour/wage conditions promised by Zapatero should help bridge the remaining gap.
The fourth tier is complicated. It is over priced at present and will be the most likely sector affected by the credit crunch. Like the UK people have over stretched and many of these were not in a position to do so. I can see 15-20% falls in this sector over the coming years.
• The majority of Spanish Property is still very cheap in comparison to other areas of Western Europe. OK so some areas of the Coast are very expensive but still affordable even in those areas that are highly desirable. 4 bedroom detached villas with a few acres can still be picked up for less than £100,000 in most inland areas. 3 Bedroom houses literally on fantastic sandy beaches can be picked up for £200,000. This doesn’t strike me as over inflated when 2 bedroom terraced houses in the worst parts of Salford are selling for £150,000.
• Spain in the new millennium is now a developed country. Spanish motorways such as the E15 are the best in Europe. The high speed railway network can transport people in luxury between Seville, Madrid and Barcelona within a few hours. This high speed network is now running along most coastal areas opening travel to millions. Flights to and from the UK can now be purchased for £50 and take only a few hours, it can sometimes cost more and take longer to travel from London to Newquay.
• With the popularity of Spain increasing for British people and new EC regulations opening borders employment opportunities are exploding in Spain. Contrary to popular belief wages are pretty good. There are also increased opportunities for home workers with Telefonica guaranteeing ADSL to most homes with speeds up 16MBps available. People such as Radio 2 producer Andy Davies (works with Jonathan Ross) commute weekly from Spain.
• The majority of UK buyers aren’t buying in Spain for investment purposes. More importantly the people I know didn’t buy expecting huge price increases. Unlike a BTL buyer who buys a 2 bed flat in Bedford when you cant rent your flat out in Mojacar you can go and holiday there for a few weeks yourself or even treat a member of your family. The majority of flippers left the Spanish market for Morocco and East Europe back in 2004. What this means is that fewer buyers are distressed and the rush for the door is unlikely to happen.
In the UK the market has been fuelled by greed and BTL investors and whilst Spain hasn’t been immune to this the majority as Sharpnose quite rightly points out are retiring to Spain or simply looking for a holiday home. They don’t care too much about the price because it doesn’t affect them and if they can’t sell…well it’s a hard life having to wait a year or two in the Spanish sunshine ;o)
• Although it seems as though building work is taking place everywhere in Spain there is of course a limited amount of land available along the coast. With the glut of baby boomers approaching retirement age and the majority determined to retire abroad with Spain the most popular destination it seems like a pretty safe long term decision to buy property on the coast. Note also that the Germans were once the biggest group of foreign property owners in Spain – their economic crash means they have been out of the market for at least 10 years. Any recovery in the German economy may mean demand is increased even further for good quality coastal properties.
• It is impractical to expect people retiring to hang around renting for 5 years. People retiring want to lay stable roots in a community when retiring abroad. Security and stability is very important when moving to a strange country and this isn’t provided by renting. I know from experience that should you buy in the right area you can sell within weeks (being realistic on price is also required). Sure some people have been trying to sell for months but visit these houses and you will see why. A lot of people assume that their house has doubled in price or they have bought in an area which offers nothing special to the purchaser.
So as I mentioned before I think some areas of Spain will drop 30% and others will continue even increasing slightly MoM. Take a good look at the market and think about the location. Location is key in Spain..I don’t mean resorts but location (Distance from coast, amenities, town etc). In other words you could say to me “I have seen a load of empty properties and there in the popular resort of Sotogrande”. What you fail to say is that they are 5 minutes out of the town centre. Think of the worst case scenario should you have to return to the UK and rent it out.
I remember reading on this board somebody saying you can get a bargain from a distressed buyer at any point in the market and this is so true. If you want to buy a property in Tier Two then definitely wait if you can’t get 20% off. If you’re looking to retire to somewhere on the coast and you have the money to buy then I would advise you do so if the opportunity is available. Just make sure you do your research.
Some of the people on this forum have been saying Spanish Property has been crashing for 2 years now. I went over there the other week and I can't see any evidence of it whatsoever and in fact I am faced with quite the opposite. In the area I was looking I held back on a development thinking a bargain may have been had and then was told they had all gone. I of course thought this was a sales tactic and waited for the "ooh we have just had somebody drop out" but it never came. I could kick myself now for not being more reliant on my own eyes rather than random newspaper articles and posts on here. Just remember "oh in some areas things are actually OK" doesnt sell papers. Pick out the odd case of misery and magnify it 500 fold to make it even more dramatic. Then throw in some random figures that you have manipulated and hey presto everybody wants out of Spain and the whole economy is on its knees. The truth is out there...go and take a visit for yourself and see things with your own eyes.