Had to add an observation to this discussion having lived in France for several years and now trying to sell a house here - with no success in 7 months it must be said.
1. Institutions such as FNAIM and others EAs have fallen in total disrepute since late '07 (assuming they were not beforehand!)
Even in June '08 some of their members and surveys were insisting that French prices nationally would be stable or show only tiny falls in 2008 - and their attempts to 'jiggle' the stats to prove this were frankly so bad as to be embarrassing. I'm not sure when exactly in 2008 they will reluctanly have to admit the situation has become less than rosy. I wait for the day !
Many of course also only report 'sales' - they ignore the vast and ever growing numbers of houses 'on the books'. I do not know for sure, but I would be surprised if these were not at record highs. The EAs here in the north west are bulging at the seams with unsold and sometimes unsaleable properties.
First rule about buying in France currently - ignore what EAs are telling you.
2. Yes, in France as elsewhere there are large variations. Old apartments in the more fashionable areas of Paris and a few other big cities may be doing well and in fact to some extent skewing the stats, but the reality is that Frenchy property prices have fallen significantly in 2008 for the vast majority of overseas buyers because as a general rule, they are not buying in the centre of Paris etc !
3. Many overseas owners now have houses in France that have, in effect, zero value. Absurd exaggeration? Well of course yes - if one is trying to sell for 150k and one dropped the price to 45k then it may sell. However, the key point is that in many areas for many types of property THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NO POTENTIAL BUYERS AT ALL - FRENCH OR FOREIGN !!
4. I see one agent has advised cross-marketing from Uk to French buyers and vice-versa. Useless advice. Nobody here for years has targeted their ads exclusively at one market or the other - one would have to be nuts to do so. Why eliminate a huge percentage of the potential buyer market by do doing? For many property types the French and Overseas buyers markets are completely different. For example - in our area in general French buyers ONLY buy modern pavillon type properties. They won't touch older properties which they perceive to be expensive to run etc. By contrast, most non-French buyers want the older character properties restored or otherwise. In this area if you have an older style of property, unless it has some very unusual features which single it out, then it won't matter if you deck it out with tricolours and and shout "allez la Frace" out of loudspeakers - the French will just not touch it with a bargepole. Shifting your ad in desperation to an EA that looks a bit more international or a bit more 'French' will have no effect usually.
5. This situation has hit hard in 2008 BUT it began earlier in 2007 - though of course most EAs refuse to see this. Again in our area there are beautiful houses in great locations and at reasonable prices. They have been on sale in some cases for 18 months and have not had a single viewing. I know many who have dropped their prices now to levels close to their original purchase price in 2003 or earlier - yet STILL they can't persuade anyone to come through the door for a look even after lots of advertising and 18 months of waiting.
So, what conclusions from all this? Well, I'll contend that the French market now offers bargains of a type not available since 2003/4 or perhaps before. Some sellers are getting desperate and this is always good for buyers. My hunch is that this is a very good time to buy because the obvious question is will this last or will it get even worse for sellers and therefore better for buyers.
Well, I wish I knew! What I do think though is that for a whole host of reasons too complex to discuss here, the French housing market is inherently more resistent to vast changes and collapses than the US or UK markets. I suspect recent legal changes to the economic framework made by Sarkozy with more coming, will generate a bit of a boost to the economy and therefore also the house market here later this year eand through early next.
My 'hunch' and it is no more than that, is that price slips may well be edging towards their bottom. It's always a gamble for buyers in these situations to buy or wait for better deals. If you're a potential buyer, good luck whatever you decide.
PS - don't get hung up on the "10% reductions" indicating how bad things are. Many French sellers outside of a few hot spots have always built-in a 10% margin into their asking prices for the purposes of negotiation downwards just as was common in the UK. They may not give it up easily, but it was always there and does not necessarily tell you anything about the state of the market if you achieve it.
