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Happysort
Had to add an observation to this discussion having lived in France for several years and now trying to sell a house here - with no success in 7 months it must be said.

1. Institutions such as FNAIM and others EAs have fallen in total disrepute since late '07 (assuming they were not beforehand!)

Even in June '08 some of their members and surveys were insisting that French prices nationally would be stable or show only tiny falls in 2008 - and their attempts to 'jiggle' the stats to prove this were frankly so bad as to be embarrassing. I'm not sure when exactly in 2008 they will reluctanly have to admit the situation has become less than rosy. I wait for the day !

Many of course also only report 'sales' - they ignore the vast and ever growing numbers of houses 'on the books'. I do not know for sure, but I would be surprised if these were not at record highs. The EAs here in the north west are bulging at the seams with unsold and sometimes unsaleable properties.

First rule about buying in France currently - ignore what EAs are telling you.

2. Yes, in France as elsewhere there are large variations. Old apartments in the more fashionable areas of Paris and a few other big cities may be doing well and in fact to some extent skewing the stats, but the reality is that Frenchy property prices have fallen significantly in 2008 for the vast majority of overseas buyers because as a general rule, they are not buying in the centre of Paris etc !

3. Many overseas owners now have houses in France that have, in effect, zero value. Absurd exaggeration? Well of course yes - if one is trying to sell for 150k and one dropped the price to 45k then it may sell. However, the key point is that in many areas for many types of property THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NO POTENTIAL BUYERS AT ALL - FRENCH OR FOREIGN !!

4. I see one agent has advised cross-marketing from Uk to French buyers and vice-versa. Useless advice. Nobody here for years has targeted their ads exclusively at one market or the other - one would have to be nuts to do so. Why eliminate a huge percentage of the potential buyer market by do doing? For many property types the French and Overseas buyers markets are completely different. For example - in our area in general French buyers ONLY buy modern pavillon type properties. They won't touch older properties which they perceive to be expensive to run etc. By contrast, most non-French buyers want the older character properties restored or otherwise. In this area if you have an older style of property, unless it has some very unusual features which single it out, then it won't matter if you deck it out with tricolours and and shout "allez la Frace" out of loudspeakers - the French will just not touch it with a bargepole. Shifting your ad in desperation to an EA that looks a bit more international or a bit more 'French' will have no effect usually.

5. This situation has hit hard in 2008 BUT it began earlier in 2007 - though of course most EAs refuse to see this. Again in our area there are beautiful houses in great locations and at reasonable prices. They have been on sale in some cases for 18 months and have not had a single viewing. I know many who have dropped their prices now to levels close to their original purchase price in 2003 or earlier - yet STILL they can't persuade anyone to come through the door for a look even after lots of advertising and 18 months of waiting.

So, what conclusions from all this? Well, I'll contend that the French market now offers bargains of a type not available since 2003/4 or perhaps before. Some sellers are getting desperate and this is always good for buyers. My hunch is that this is a very good time to buy because the obvious question is will this last or will it get even worse for sellers and therefore better for buyers.

Well, I wish I knew! What I do think though is that for a whole host of reasons too complex to discuss here, the French housing market is inherently more resistent to vast changes and collapses than the US or UK markets. I suspect recent legal changes to the economic framework made by Sarkozy with more coming, will generate a bit of a boost to the economy and therefore also the house market here later this year eand through early next.

My 'hunch' and it is no more than that, is that price slips may well be edging towards their bottom. It's always a gamble for buyers in these situations to buy or wait for better deals. If you're a potential buyer, good luck whatever you decide.

PS - don't get hung up on the "10% reductions" indicating how bad things are. Many French sellers outside of a few hot spots have always built-in a 10% margin into their asking prices for the purposes of negotiation downwards just as was common in the UK. They may not give it up easily, but it was always there and does not necessarily tell you anything about the state of the market if you achieve it.







whiterabbit
Happysort. What area of France are you in/talking about?
whiterabbit
Happysort. What area of France are you in/talking about?
aliveandkicking
QUOTE (Happysort @ Aug 4 2008, 03:48 PM) *
For many property types the French and Overseas buyers markets are completely different. For example - in our area in general French buyers ONLY buy modern pavillon type properties. They won't touch older properties which they perceive to be expensive to run etc.


Salut Happysort!

You made some very interesting and informative comments that i really appreciated.
Can you say more about the style of property in your area that is preferred by locals? perhaps a picture?

I was looking thru a Brochure for various french property in a magazine shop and felt prices there were pretty reasonable compared to here in Finland and if now prices are falling then i am quite interested in what is possible

Thanks


Happysort
Hello all!

Glad my comments got some responses.

I am talking generically about north western France. That's an area generally including parts of eastern Brittany, western Normandy, and parts of Pays De La Loire - say parts of dept 35, Dept Mayenne 53 and parts of Loire Atlantique dept 44, large parts of Manche Dept 50, and east a bit into Sarthe and parts of Calvados.

Now I know a few people may respond irately and say "this is daft - property prices in St Malo, Nantes, Granville etc are showing year-on-year increases" etc etc. The trouble is, that this is a VAST area (and beautiful). Yes there are a few property hot spots - usualy by the coast in holiday towns which are very middle-class and also very desirable by large numbers of wealthy parisiennes reaching retirement age and who want a small pavillon by the sea - St Malo in Brittany and some coastal areas around NANTES are good examples of this.

Yet talking only about these hot-spots is deeply misleading. It's like talking about English house prices based upon say the stockbroker belt in Surrey and a few other such areas and saying prices in southern England are stable.

In reality, property prices in the majority of this vast area have in a few cases stagnated, but for the most part tumbled in recent times as a result of nerves and the complete absence of buyers etc.

In this area, I know some agents who say (not publically of course) they have not had a serious buyer enquiry for ANY property in months. A few others report still a few buyers around for entry level or renovation projects say below 70-80k euros, but none at all for any mid-level or more expensive properties.

In some of the larger towns in this big area there is still movement for town centre apartments - usually mainly local French buyers but even in towns many slightly more expensive house properties and going nowhere. Outside of the main towns it has been dead for some time.

If one looks at some internet selling sites, one can see quite a few houses on several times over a period (sometimes because nobody bothered to delete the original ad) and you can see the history of price reductions over time.

What I said in my first note is correct - come and look around in this area and any buyer can pick and choose. They would be spoilt for choice. Many houses have been on sale for a year or more. I have been told now that in terms of securities etc (very rare in France but that is another story) most financial institutions assume that houses in this area will take 18 months - 2 years to sell on average and that prices are falling heavily. EAs continue to ignore this though for the most part and try to talk the market up. Yes I understand this, but behaving like an Ostrich just insults everybody's intelligence. Yes I know there are some exceptions and some superb properties that have sold quickly because they were exceptional - but they are also exceptionally rare in having a quick sale !

This of course is good news for buyers - Finnish or otherwise !

Be aware thought - a point though about cultural differences. Many French sellers are far more patient than other nationalities - perhaps their financial and logistical drivers are less compelling. Even so, they will negotiate but are not usually offering the same 'reality driven' reductions that many foreign sellers are. One can see literally hundreds of cases where a house asking price after 12 months has been reduced by, wait for it, 1000euros ! Hardly worth waiting for if the asking price is 200k !

I don't know, but I'd guess for the most part these tiny reductions are from French owners. They may have built in their 10% negotiation factor, but they're not goign to offer it up overnight if at all !

Many British and other nationality owners are under more time pressure. Work, family, return to the UK, financial cises etc - for all these reasons they cannot afford to take a 'cest la vie' approach to wait and see what happens in 2009 or 2010. They are more likely to be making the needed market adjustments (ie slashing prices) and to try and catch the eye of the very very few buyers out there.

I don't know this, but common sense tells me to suspect that through 2007 and particularly 2008, many foreign owners permanently living here have slipped further and further into financial trouble and in some cases crisis. I suspect this because it has always been the case as official stats show - France is a notoriously difficult country to earn a living in and many expats have been forced to return to their country of origin for work and/or sell their houses to re-finance. Prior to later 2007 this was not too hard, but now in many cases they suddenly find this is impossible because there are just no buyers and their houses have at least temporarily, virtually zero value. I suspect sooner or later this is a 'big story' that's going to break and get news coverage - keep your eyes open.

This is a slight digression but relates to this forum because the key point is - there are bargains and good deals to be had in France now. I have believed for many years that outside of a few towns, property prices in France have continued to offer fantastic value to foreign buyers. I believe the slumps of 2007/8 will making it even more so.

In terms of property types - most French people here really only want to buy a type generally known as a pavillon. These are modern properties built in various styles but for the most part of rendered concrete blocks (or similar) quite often elevated with a garage underneath, a small external veranda and patio, and access to the front soor via stairs. They are VERY popular in most parts of France usually because they are easy to maintain and heat/cool etc. Many have reasonable 'green' credentials if really modern builds. Many are build on new lotisements (building sites/developments) on the outer edges of towns or villages.

In this part of France most French people avoid older 19th century or earlier property. Yes of course they do buy them if they are very cute and renovated to very high standards or in a stunning location. Many French people in this area do not have the interest and sometimes the money, to engage in large scale renovations. Many speak openly that they think the (primarily) British incomers who sometimes live for 12 months in a tiny caravan alongside a heap of stones trying to renovate these ancient buildings, are completely and utterly insane.

For many years they were proven wrong of course as prices rose for these older properties but I know many now who whilst sympathising personally, still have a slight wry smile of "we told you so" when they see foreigners now struggling to sell these properties !

Thanks for listening !



aliveandkicking
QUOTE (Happysort @ Aug 8 2008, 12:37 PM) *
Hello all!

Glad my comments got some responses.



Thanks for the reply!

Sounds like the desirable french property is very similar to the modern Finnish property. There are very few older style houses remaining in the southern region that you would want to live in from what i can see. Most were very pokey and not suited to a modern way of living. Being a raving mad brit i was hoping i might find an old ruined farm house but i think those days are long gone. Like most people i started with grand plans and then have had to face a certain reality. Finland is a very expensive place to live in but prices are now beginning to fall.

On vera!
Happysort
QUOTE (aliveandkicking @ Aug 8 2008, 01:04 PM) *
Thanks for the reply!

Sounds like the desirable french property is very similar to the modern Finnish property. There are very few older style houses remaining in the southern region that you would want to live in from what i can see. Most were very pokey and not suited to a modern way of living. Being a raving mad brit i was hoping i might find an old ruined farm house but i think those days are long gone. Like most people i started with grand plans and then have had to face a certain reality. Finland is a very expensive place to live in but prices are now beginning to fall.

On vera!


You'll certainly be able to find old barns /farms a plenty etc needing rennonvation around here and at 'cheapish' prices ! As I said above, in general locals don't want them unless they're 101% done and have special attractions etc. Sounds like you're in the wrong place !
davidg
One agent I've spoken to has talked about a 5 to 8% per annum drop in French prices for the next 5 years. Certainly it is very difficult to shift property in the Rhone-Alpes at the moment with virtually no buyers for properties over 300Keuros and those that do want to buy having trouble with finance.

http://imageshack-france.com/out.php/i1559...eBaisseImmo.gif

Happysort
QUOTE (davidg @ Aug 8 2008, 07:11 PM) *
One agent I've spoken to has talked about a 5 to 8% per annum drop in French prices for the next 5 years. Certainly it is very difficult to shift property in the Rhone-Alpes at the moment with virtually no buyers for properties over 300Keuros and those that do want to buy having trouble with finance.

http://imageshack-france.com/out.php/i1559...eBaisseImmo.gif



Yep. At least the EAs in your region seem a little more realistic than many !
davidg
QUOTE (Happysort @ Aug 8 2008, 09:28 PM) *
Yep. At least the EAs in your region seem a little more realistic than many !


Yes, the 11% for St Marcellin is interesting if much anticipated. It was the property hotspot. At one time, 20 odd years ago, you could buy a farm there for 400,000 France whereas a small flat in Grenoble some 50km away would be more like 800,000 Francs. Then St Marcellin became the place to live and prices approached Grenoble levels. However the traffic into town is horrendous and with petrol at 1E50 a liter it is turning out to be too expensive to commute (no public transport links). The weather is also not as good as elsewhere in the region as it is on the west side of the alps so gets a lot of rainfall.

I agree with the sentiments posted above, some places are pratically unsellable now. Particuarly out of town properties with no transport links and no local shops.

In Grenoble there are rumours of 12 estate agents on the brink of going bust.

As the same time I have three of my work colleagues who have just bought (in the Haute Savoie) and they are incredibly bullish.
Happysort

As the same time I have three of my work colleagues who have just bought (in the Haute Savoie) and they are incredibly bullish.
[/quote]

Yes, I suspect if one is lucky enough to have the funding then now, and perhaps for a moderate period ahead, it is a good time to buy. There are certainly bargains to be found and good deals to be struck.

I think some areas will always be a less risky bet than others - it is the same in this region. Around here coastal properties are usually a good bet and so far at least, they have avoided the price collapses of elsewhere though there are so very few buyers around that even these houses (normally snapped up) are taking a long time to sell.

I also agree about many EAs living on borrowed time. It is just a question of maths. They can't go on for ever with few if any commissions coming in.

Ah well. Maybe something unexpected will get things moving again - interesting to note that just as gloom about the eurozone economies starts to reach new depths there are some grains of hope appearing over in the USA.


catara
QUOTE (davidg @ Aug 9 2008, 09:01 AM) *
As the same time I have three of my work colleagues who have just bought (in the Haute Savoie) and they are incredibly bullish.


I just returned from Haute Savoie, a region of incredible beauty.

I am not sure though about property prices... I stayed around Chamonix and in Sallanches, St Gervais, Paissy,Chamonix, Cluses, Bellevaux, Samoens areas there were tons of apartments, houses and terrains for sale.

I do not know about the price evolution in the last 5 years there but I saw some 20% down markings in some regions.

Why are your colleagues bullish?
picnic
They are bullish as they are AGENTS !

VEF are sending multiple emails out to try and persuade me to buy in France ( as are other companies for Germany etc ...)

It must be very clear that prices are falling to anyone with 1/2 a brain cell.

FRENCH PROPERTY PRICES ARE FALLING . Don't buty unless you have to and are aware of the risks.

The only upside is a possible currency gain but that is a very difficult call at present (AUG 2008 )
davidg
QUOTE (picnic @ Aug 9 2008, 03:50 PM) *
They are bullish as they are AGENTS !


Im sorry picnic but i dont believe you know my colleagues...
davidg
QUOTE (catara @ Aug 9 2008, 04:00 PM) *
I just returned from Haute Savoie, a region of incredible beauty.

I am not sure though about property prices... I stayed around Chamonix and in Sallanches, St Gervais, Paissy,Chamonix, Cluses, Bellevaux, Samoens areas there were tons of apartments, houses and terrains for sale.

I do not know about the price evolution in the last 5 years there but I saw some 20% down markings in some regions.

Why are your colleagues bullish?


Yup but appart from sporting activities there is not much else you can do in those towns... well Cluses is a complete dump but has some industry. I think Annemasse is underrated - but you would have to like the Maghreb. There is a whole different market in what they call the Sillon alpin which is driven by the towns of Grenobe -> Chambery -> Annecy -> Geneva. If the French towns are somewhat in the doldrums, Geneve into the Vaud is booming due to lower corporation taxes.

That doesn't mean the market is great. North of Grenoble the Gresivaudan valley is said to be "stable" in terms of prices. Annecy has seen a recent boom, particuarly around Annecy north with the new autoroute down to Geneva. The prices around Geneva are crazy, 2nd only to Paris and if you cross the border you can add 50% to any figure so that a 2 bed new build in somewhere like Rolle (40 minutes north of Geneva) is 600,000 CHF.

It is like the phoney war though, everyone is waiting for the tsunami to hit but it is still somewhere out on lake Geneva.

Why are my colleagues bullish?

Well they probably don't spend all day on Bulle Immobilier. People have seen 5-10% increases since the mid nineties here and just don't know anything else. There is an awful lot of BTL in the area too (this has always been a popular French passtime). They just don't understand a HPC. Also if you had just splurged 400,000 euros on a flat at or near the top of the market you'd be bullish too. At least in public. It is not clear how much the Geneva economy can keep things motoring.

I've spoken to people who are beginning to get worried though. Fixed rates on the French side have recently broken through the 5% barrier which has put a huge brake on prices. The FNAIM has spoken of a 10% drop in the Gex dept. where it borders onto Geneva. That would take in CERN for example. I don't like the area much. A lot of poor quality new builds plus you get all the Easyjet flights whizzing over your roof. Plus you will be first to perish in September when the mad scientists at Cern create a black hole.
catara
QUOTE (davidg @ Aug 10 2008, 06:45 AM) *
A lot of poor quality new builds plus you get all the Easyjet flights whizzing over your roof. Plus you will be first to perish in September when the mad scientists at Cern create a black hole.


Well, they start a dry run in October and the actual LHC experiment might start in January 2008. But do not worry, there won't be such things like black holes.

As I actually visited CERN for 2 weeks and drove everyday from CERN to St Gervais area, I have some idea about the Haute Savoie and Le Genevois.

Annemasse looks like a dump, I would not consider buying anywhere below Bonneville.

I am not sure about Les Cluzes. Prices are cheaper that surroundings, there is Carrefour and one can reach many beautiful places for skiing and hiking in less than 20 minutes. Samoens, Morzine, Megeve are of couse much more convenient for skiing but their prices are quite high...
davidg
QUOTE (catara @ Aug 10 2008, 03:17 PM) *
Well, they start a dry run in October and the actual LHC experiment might start in January 2008. But do not worry, there won't be such things like black holes.



Or as the scientist at Cern said on the local TV the other day "it's quite unlikely that our experiments will generate a strangelet that will transform the earth into a black hole"

QUOTE
Annemasse looks like a dump, I would not consider buying anywhere below Bonneville.

I am not sure about Les Cluzes. Prices are cheaper that surroundings, there is Carrefour and one can reach many beautiful places for skiing and hiking in less than 20 minutes. Samoens, Morzine, Megeve are of couse much more convenient for skiing but their prices are quite high...


You can get from Geneva to Chamonix in an hour so it depends what you want. If you are looking to work in Geneva then better to be closer to town, there are lots of nice places.
Happysort
QUOTE (picnic @ Aug 9 2008, 04:50 PM) *
They are bullish as they are AGENTS !

VEF are sending multiple emails out to try and persuade me to buy in France ( as are other companies for Germany etc ...)

It must be very clear that prices are falling to anyone with 1/2 a brain cell.

FRENCH PROPERTY PRICES ARE FALLING . Don't buty unless you have to and are aware of the risks.

The only upside is a possible currency gain but that is a very difficult call at present (AUG 2008 )


Yes, I sort of sympathise with this view but buying isn't just a question of looking at what the market is doing today but rather trying to assess what is likely in the next 6 or perhaps 12 months (unless one is by nature and genetics an "observer"who never commits because one is always waiting for things to offer better potential deals etc)

I don't know any more than anyone else does, but as I've already said, my hunch is that current downward spiralling of prices is unlikley to continue for very lengthy periods and is also unlikely to achieve the vast percentages possibly on the cards in the UK and USA. I'd have to yak on for hours to give my logic for this but in the end it doesn't matter two hoots what I think - it's what individual buyers think at any given time.

If I was buying I might be tempted to enter into the market before 2009 and negotiate hard. I have been caught out badly before in the crash of the 1990s by "waiting for further falls" which just never came. Always a difficult call.

davidg
entreparticulier have some historical house price date, they don't specify the sources (their own ads?)

http://www.entreparticuliers.com/recherche...ransactions.asp
davidg
QUOTE (wadisgod @ Apr 20 2008, 10:14 AM) *
My friend lives near Annecy and is convinced that prices are still rising!

Ant one got ant information on that area?


A quick update headline in tonights paper "Annecy house prices plummet" will find out more but a quick scan of the article said huge stocks with only perfect properties selling. Same problem in nearby chambers... Watch this space!
Agentimmo
QUOTE (whiterabbit @ Apr 9 2008, 01:23 PM) *
On reflection now I am over my let lag (am in the US) a couple of other things worth mentioning:

Most newer villa resales (1995-2000) were terrible quality and way over priced in my mind. On average 400k euros for 120 sq meters with no view etc. Plus of course high purchase taxes. The highest asking were of course greedy English sellers.

All needed work and my wife and I would rather not buy at all than pay those prices for nothing special. You could easily put in another 50k plus for a decent kitchen etc (maybe we are too spolit from living in the US the last few years).

The decent historic houses were better but much more expensive 800k plus and needing work but are still probably a safer bet for a very long term hold.

Rental bookings are way down and many houses have no renters yet for this season.

Conclusion: Do not buy there right now and if you want to move there rent. While you are renting you can get a real idea of the market and potential opportunities. Also my feeling is the Euro will weaken in the medium and long term.


And rents are now falling for the first time in 5 years. Negotiate the rent down as well. cool.gif
Agentimmo
Just my 2€ worth from the south of France wink.gif
Some really good anecdotes on here since my last visit a few months back.
I've also got some good news.........

- The local EA near to me (used to be an ORPI franchise then went to Norman Parker franchise about 4 years back) has went bust. The shop is closed and up for sale. Magnifique !! The owner that ran it was a detestable woman who told me 13 years ago that my budget was small and wouldn't buy a house. 5 months later, I bought a house biggrin.gif (via another agent). This agency was open for years, so I guess the closing down can be seen as some sort of bell-weather in the southern market. Hope so!

- Local paper, Nice Matin, reports this week that rents are falling all along the coast. In some areas, by 3% or more since the start of the year. In France, rents are linked to a govt index. ie the landlord cannot put rents up by more than the index. Only by getting in a new tenant can they ask a higher price. I've also heard stories that there are swathes of rental properties now available. People cannot sell and are placing their property to rent. Much like the UK.

- My friend at the bank tells me the market is at a standstill. Except for the very top end and retired couples looking for a 1 bed getaway in town centres - old buildings with "character" in the main. No demand for the out of town stuff or new build.

The market is now very reminiscent to the one in the mid-90s. It's at a standstill and the little that is selling in being negotiated down big time.
I'd be wary about buying down here unless you really have to. Prices have still a long way to drop. I'm expecting 40% down from the peak, which would mirror the 90s falls. If things get really bad, 50% beckons.

As for those who buy in rural areas and expect increases in the future. I hope you are correct. The French have a different view of property from the Brits. I remember there were places in Normandy, Orne etc that didn't increase in value for 10years from the mid 80's to mid 90s.
Since then, French banks have been loosely lending. If they revert back to previous criteria (ie min 20% deposit, full time job contract, etc) then there's no reason to think prices will take off again in the near future.
davidg
FNAIM has release Paris figures. -1.1% in July and -1.5% in August with transactions down 30% in the first six months of 2008.

In the Figaro they said rents were down in Lyon (lots of BTL stuff last time I went), Bordeaux, Marseille and Strasbourg.

Here is some more bear food from Paris 10 University:-

QUOTE
"Après l'annonce de baisse des ventes de logements neufs en France de 30% pour les six premiers mois de 2008, on est passé dans la deuxième phase de la dégradation de l'activité, surtout que les mois d'été ont été catastrophiques pour l'activité", explique le professeur d'économie de Paris X Nanterre, Michel Mouillart à l'AFP. "La crise est immobilière, plus seulement de financement du crédit, et devrait être beaucoup plus importante que dans les années 90 car la chute de l'activité devrait être sur l'ensemble de l'année de 20% alors qu'au début de l'année on ne prévoyait qu'une chute de 10% à 15%", ajoute-t-il. Les professionnels craignent que le cercle vicieux n'ait été enclenché, après une longue période faste. Le durcissement de l'accès au crédit, conditions macroéconomiques oblige, amplifie encore le mouvement. "La solvabilité immobilière des ménages" recule, estimait dans une étude publiée fin juillet Bruno Cavalier, économiste chez Oddo Securities. Face à la dégradation du contexte, le spécialiste avançait que la seule variable d'ajustement disponible restait le prix pour remettre en selle les ménages dans leur capacité d'investissement immobilier. Reste à intégrer les spécificités locales et intrinsèques des biens. "La baisse significative des prix des logements en France, que nous croyons inéluctable, est une tendance moyenne ; elle ne sera pas uniforme entre les villes, les quartiers ou les régions", prévenait alors Monsieur Cavalier.
Agentimmo
Good find, Monsieur !

If Prof Mouillart from Paris X university thinks it will be worse this time around than in the 90's, then we are in for some big drops. I don't know if you were in France at that time, but the market fell by about 40%. I bought in 97 , quite near the bottom.

I said last 6 months ago that prices would fall as much as the last time , or maybe even by 50% plus. Looks like we're headed for a massive drop. eg. 50% drops would take my property back to 2000 prices.

Allez le krach laugh.gif
davidg
QUOTE (Agentimmo @ Sep 15 2008, 05:11 PM) *
Good find, Monsieur !

If Prof Mouillart from Paris X university thinks it will be worse this time around than in the 90's, then we are in for some big drops. I don't know if you were in France at that time, but the market fell by about 40%. I bought in 97 , quite near the bottom.


Merci bcp. Yes I've been around since '91... I've owned a house since around then, originally between Chamby and Grobobble and as you said you couldn't sell stuff back then. I was stuck with it for years and sold it for less than I paid in 92. That area has since boomed.

In 2000 I couldn't believe the prices in Paris, really cheap for a capital city, you could get a nice central 2 bed flat for under 100K (livres), they doubled between 2000 and 2004.

You make a lot of good points, particuarly about the country houses beloved of Brits. They are extremely hard to price. Given the poor public transport I wouldn't want to be far away from a town or city.

There is a house opposite me that has been on the market for 18 months, nothing much wrong with it, asking price has dropped from 470K to 370K in that time and still no visitors. They would probably have to drop to 340K to get some offers.
whiterabbit
Anyone with very recent experience near Monaco. Specifically Menton to Nice. Agents keep telling me this area is immune to falls laugh.gif
davidg
Didn't you read AgentImmos posts above?

While Monaco is, perhaps, immune to falls due to the tax situation the rest isn't. Nice... a lot of it is a bit rough or run down to be honest, you'd have to be careful exactly where you bought. Up to Menton may be ok, some nice Hausmannian style architecture, but west of Nice (where I lived for some time) is the car-jacking capital of France. Estrosi (the new mayor) may "improve" Nice a bit a la Jacques Médecin. The rail link to Marseille should be upgraded giving better communications with Paris and Lyon.
whiterabbit
QUOTE (davidg @ Sep 16 2008, 08:16 AM) *
Didn't you read AgentImmos posts above?

While Monaco is, perhaps, immune to falls due to the tax situation the rest isn't. Nice... a lot of it is a bit rough or run down to be honest, you'd have to be careful exactly where you bought. Up to Menton may be ok, some nice Hausmannian style architecture, but west of Nice (where I lived for some time) is the car-jacking capital of France. Estrosi (the new mayor) may "improve" Nice a bit a la Jacques Médecin. The rail link to Marseille should be upgraded giving better communications with Paris and Lyon.



Yes I read it but mean specific to that little area. I am not interested in Nice but east specifically BS, RCM or maybe Menton. I have been watching very closely and have yet to see any pubiscised drops. Agents are saying its still OK outside this forum and am wondering if anyone could point me to actual porperties that had been reduced etc.

Don't worry am not going to jump in and pay too much but want to be able to plan a little when to transfer to Euros etc.

BTW is the crime really that bad? Are robberies a big issue too?
felix
QUOTE (whiterabbit @ Sep 15 2008, 09:11 PM) *
Anyone with very recent experience near Monaco. Specifically Menton to Nice. Agents keep telling me this area is immune to falls laugh.gif

Yes, I went there in April/May also hoping/thinking that some form of a correction should be going on.

Several facts that struck me:
A) Already during late April the whole Cote d'Azur was completely overcrowded.
cool.gif There is plenty for sale, but prices refuse to drop.
C) The weather was just pure gold!

Getting back to A. Where do all these people come from? Well 1/3 is over 60 years old and is simply too rich. These are all people that are of the age that nice retirement plans were put in place and at the same time they will have saved some, so they are now loaded and spend it. 1/3 are families (with children) that come from Paris for a (long) weekend. Since France offers the fantastic TGV soon with internet on board, I think it is not unimaginable people may even kind of reside in the South of France and work during weekdays in Paris. 1/3 the necessary immigrant work force to keep the place going. What you will not find, are many bachelors like me!

In regards to B. No way prices can go up while prices in Spain are collapsing and in other parts of France are surely dropping too. So what is the big difference here? The Russians! I think half of Cap d'Antibes has been bought by them.

And what can I say about C? Not many places in the world where it is so nice! Spain is more often too hot.

All in all I kind of lost interest in buying and living there now, as I consider myself too young (40) for the area.
davidg
QUOTE (felix @ Sep 17 2008, 01:10 AM) *
I think it is not unimaginable people may even kind of reside in the South of France and work during weekdays in Paris.


Some maybe do but hard to imagine many do given salaries are low in France.

Nice to Cannes has car-jacking problems, up to Menton may be ok.
Agentimmo
Felix, for a 40yr old bachelor, you should head out for a night or two in Cannes or even Antibes. Plenty of "young single things" around these 2 places. Best areas are the old ports in both towns. I'm married, but have plenty of friends who tell me it's easy to meet new friends - there are some good little bars that have live music on Fri/Sat nights that seem popular with the ladies wink.gif

Some other tips based on your last coupe of emails :

- Monaco may fall, but only very slightly. Too much laundered money from all over the globe pours into this town sad.gif
- Menton, being part of France, will fall. By how much ? No idea, but if the average fall is 40% in France, Menton and the other places won't be far off. Expect 1 and 2 beds to fall most. There are a lot less houses in this town and its proximity to Monaco means houses retain better value. (ie. because you get a pool and a garden and are 15mins from Monaco for about 1/7th of the price.....)
- Buying in the centre of Nice, from the Promenade back to the Vieux Nice area is fine, if a bit noisy from April to Sept. The tramway is great.
Places to avoid are north Nice (except Cimiez) and much of the west.
- Towns between Nice and Cannes are fine if you can get somewhere within 5-10 mins drive or bus from the beach. These places will fall in the next slump. Even today, I'd offer 25% less than the advertised price to see if the seller bites. Unless the place you are looking at is already lower than other similar places for sale, don't pay more than 80% of the advertised price today. EA's down here are experts at trying it on. They have extremely brass necks!!!
- Best areas? Antibes and Cannes are good places. Golfe-Juan is a bit small and DEAD outside the summer season. Mandelieu is fine if you are near the beach, but avoid the new builds in the north of the town , near the golf course (not the Old Course in the centre, the other one...). Theole-Sur-Mer is fine as well, but does seem to be quiet in the winter and full of retired northern europeans sad.gif

Hope that helps a little. Me? I'm still waiting a couple of years. I find that in France the market tends to lag behind the UK mrket and falls are slower (with rises being less also). However, it will fall laugh.gif

Agentimmo
QUOTE (davidg @ Sep 17 2008, 08:07 PM) *
Some maybe do but hard to imagine many do given salaries are low in France.

Nice to Cannes has car-jacking problems, up to Menton may be ok.


The car jacking rates have been slashed in the last couple of years. Mayor Estrosi is tackling this head on. I've never had this problem. It really is common sense for the most part though.

- When you hire a car, ask if you can have a number plate with 06 or some other dept other than 60. This 60 signifies the Marne dept and is used by most of the car hire companies as the MOT is cheaper.
- If the hire car has a white, plastic "F" sticker on the back, ask the hirer to remove it. This is a giveaway that the car has a tourist in it.
- When you drive in town, keep the windows up and DOORS locked from the inside. Most car-jackers arrive on a motorbike and steal through the front passenger door/window. Air-con is great, so use it:)
- Never leave handbags , wallets etc in view even when driving. This attracts the thief.
- When you get out the car to pay for parking, or fill up for petrol close and lock the doors. Simple, but effective!

As I say, I've never had a problem although it does exist. Better still, if you're in Nice, give up the car and take the bus/tramway......;;
davidg
A couple of extra datapoints.

French borrowing power for mortgages has dropped 20% in the last year due to the credit crunch (source: le Dauphine Libere). Interesting programme on Capital last night (M6 Channel - see www.m6.fr). Their experts thought an 8% drop per year over the next 3 years with (as Agentimmo has noted) a big difference between towns with jobs (Lyon, Paris etc) and the countryside. An estate agent friend is working on a 5-8% drop over 5 years. You takes your money. However what is clear is that there are going to be some places that are next to impossible to shift - too far from major towns and the locals either won't or can't afford to commute long distances.

Antibes - la Gaffe used to a a pickup place for the ladies - I think their house band is BlahBlah who are something of a legend down south. A schoolmate is or was a partner in the place. There are a couple of good clubs in Juan les Pins too and a good live music venue in Biot. Biot is not bad but maybe a bit far from the sea. Mouans Sartoux, which has had a house boom due to the rail link with Grasse reopening should not be considered unless you are 100% resistant to Tiger mosquito bites :-).
Saving For a Space Ship
"Paris maxed: The eurozone braces itself for a French property downturn"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8eefdb4c-89a0-11...00779fd18c.html
pinktulipsshine
dear Agentimmo

very useful guide for a tourist coming to UK. the street crimes are increasing people find their luggage not safe
i appreciate your comments on car jacking.
Agentimmo
On TF1 lunchtime news today. Article about falling house prices. Went to a small town near Rennes , possibly a suburb?
EA stating that transactions had fallen about 15% in 6 months. I assumed he already had low volumes. happy.gif

But the big news from the EA was that selling prices have plummeted by about 30% from same time last year. Hurrah biggrin.gif
This was straight from the front line. Camera also showed boarded up EA offices. Hurrah again! biggrin.gif
The EA's advice was that to sell in this market you needed to be prepared to slash the price.

Now, in France the stats from the various agencies tend to lag well behind reality, IMO. Also, many agencies are VI's.
There are no national combined figures like there exists in the UK. Hence for this reason , this tv report on the news was BIG and confirms what I'd already heard as anecdotal evidence. As I said a lot earlier on this thread, given the size of France and population density, property outside the big cities will fall hard and fast. The cities will do also, but may take a little longer wink.gif

To finish the report, the EA said he couldn't call the bottom of this market ohmy.gif (Hurrah for the last time !)

<edited for typos>
wadisgod
(Hurrah for the last time !)


Lets hope its not "Hurrah" for the last time tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif

Keep the good news comming!
felix
QUOTE (Agentimmo @ Sep 19 2008, 02:58 PM) *
- When you hire a car, ask if you can have a number plate with 06 or some other dept other than 60. This 60 signifies the Marne dept and is used by most of the car hire companies as the MOT is cheaper.

Amazing and true!

I am in Monaco now. Today is Sunday. I will walk into some real estate agents tomorrow just to get a feel of the sentiment.
Phillip Temple
Hi Felix, contact me via the Med In Heaven web site. I know more about the Nice market than anybody else, including the estate agencies. I also know all the Monaco estate agents, but buying in Monaco is very different. There are certain laws you need to be aware of. We can meet up either in Monaco or Nice on Tuesday late afternoon for a drink if you like? I will be more than happy to tell you everything you need to know.

Phillip.
Agentimmo
QUOTE (Phillip Temple @ Oct 5 2008, 08:28 PM) *
Hi Felix, contact me via the Med In Heaven web site. I know more about the Nice market than anybody else, including the estate agencies. I also know all the Monaco estate agents, but buying in Monaco is very different. There are certain laws you need to be aware of. We can meet up either in Monaco or Nice on Tuesday late afternoon for a drink if you like? I will be more than happy to tell you everything you need to know.

Phillip.


Philip, how far do you see the Riviera and Monaco markets falling in % terms?
I'd assume Monaco will see a small downturn but nothing compared to the "real world" just across its border wink.gif
Would you agree ?
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