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House Price Crash forum > House Prices > Regional House Prices > Northern Ireland
doccyboy
Rateable value site


http://vlistdcv.lpsni.gov.uk/search.asp?submit=form




Price reductions on propertynews


http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/

Vespasian
Good thread, can this be pinned at the top as an important topic?

don't forget Propertypin, concerning RoI
http://www.thepropertypin.com/

pod
Another Irish property crash forum.

http://www.irishpropertycrash.com/dnn/
prophet-profit
Nationwide Historical Data:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm

need excel or open office

open office is free and available here: http://www.openoffice.org/
prophet-profit
Addendum to above:

Doccyboy raised questions regarding the Nationwide data yesterday and whilst I cannot answer DBs specific question I thought it best to list the accompanying information in the last quarterly release, Q4 2007 and the methodology from their website.

Quarterly Release Notes:

1) Indices and average prices for the UK and the regions are produced using Nationwide's updated
mix adjusted House Price Methodology which was introduced with effect from the first quarter of
1995. All changes are nominal and do not allow for inflation. The methodology can be found on
our website: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/

2) Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Quarterly
series are seasonally adjusted using data since 1973. The seasonal adjustment is recalculated
quarterly and may lead to revisions.

3) The price changes in the sub regional, and local authority tables are based on the price per unit
area of the properties in the sample. Samples are smaller than at a regional level and figures
should not be relied upon for any critical application. Figures are not directly comparable with
mix-adjusted indices.

4) The Nationwide House Price Index is prepared from information which we believe is collated with
care, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to
vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the whole or any part of the Index at any time,
for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the Index for their own or
third party commercial purposes do so entirely at their own risk.

Methodology

There are several methods that could be used to calculate the trend in house prices, ranging from a simple average of purchase price to a statistical method of averaging. Then there is the matter of making sure that the different mixture of properties sold in each month does not give a false impression of the actual change in house prices. The next few sections explain the way we do this as well as providing some background to the Nationwide house price series and the current methodology that we employ to calculate average house prices. Decorative Image: For Sale Sign

Background to Nationwide House Price Information

Nationwide Building Society has a long history of recording and analysing house price data and has published average house price information since 1952. The following provides a short chronology of publish series and developments in Nationwide's methodology of calculating average house prices:

1952 - Annual publication of house price data (Some indices back to 1946).

1974 - Quarterly data is published for the first time.

1989 - Development of new house price methodology. A statistical 'regression' technique was introduced under guidance of 'Fleming and Nellis' (Loughborough University and Cranfield Institute of Technology).

1993 - The house price system was further improved following publication of the Census 1991 data. Frequency for UK series increased to monthly.

The monthly figure measures the mix adjusted average house price for all houses in the UK. Every quarter the Nationwide also publishes a more detailed breakdown of house prices. These include both UK and 13 regional estimates for:

* 4 types of house (Detached, semi-detached, terraced and flats);
* 2 types of buyer (First time buyer and Former owner occupiers);
* 3 property ages (New, modern and older).

*This makes a total of 140 separate series, all of which are published in our Data Download
Data - source, cleaning and sample size

Source

All house price information is derived using Nationwide mortgage data. This data is extracted monthly for mortgages that are at the approvals stage and after the corresponding building survey has been completed. Approvals data is used as opposed to mortgage completions since it should give an earlier indication of current trends in prices in the housing market.

Cleaning

Nationwide house price series utilise only residential property information. In addition, properties that are not typical and may distort the series are also removed from the data set. Therefore, the following criteria is used to select which properties to include:

* House purchases - remortgages and further advances are excluded
* Properties sold at true market prices - right to buy sales at discounted price are excluded
* Floor size has to be within specified limits for a give type of property - e.g. a detached house has to have at least 400 sq. ft floor area

Sample Size

The number of cases that are used to calculate the average price for a given month will depend on the volume of monthly mortgage activity and out of these the cases that meet the criteria in the cleaning process. The monthly sample size will therefore vary from month to month. Nationwide has sufficient sample size to produce a representative house price series. N.B. Net lending figures quoted at our half yearly and annual results are not a guide to our sample size. Sample size is based on the number of new loans we write i.e. the amount of gross lending for house purchase(remortgage cases are excluded).

The Nationwide Building Society is the 4th largest mortgage lender in the UK by stock. This allows us to be confident that the series based on Nationwide mortgage data is representative of the whole house market.

The quarterly UK series for all houses uses 3 months of data and hence a much larger sample than at the month. The samples sizes for the other quarterly series will depend on what it is they are measuring, for example the series for first time buyers only considers properties being brought by first time buyers and hence this will have a smaller sample size than that used for the whole of the UK. It is for this reason that detailed breakdown of house prices are produced quarterly.
Mix Adjustment Process

Why Mix Adjust?

The purpose of mix adjustment is to simply isolate pure prices changes. The simple example below illustrates how the changes in the mixture of properties sold each month could give a misleading picture of what is actually happening to house prices. The set of properties sold from month to month will vary by location and design etc. and some adjustment is necessary to make sure all of these do not give a false impression of the actual changes to house prices. A mix-adjusted or 'standardised' index is not affected by such changes because the relative weight given to each characteristic of a property in the 'mix' (or 'basket', to use an analogy with retail prices) is fixed from one period to the next.

Simple example - Benefits of mix adjustment

Suppose that the price of both detached houses and flats increased at the same rate for five periods, with flats being cheaper.

Further suppose that the proportion of flats and detached sold in each period varied considerably, as the table shows.

The simple average of both kinds of properties will be influenced by the proportion of each property sold. In periods 3 and 4 the simple average shows a decrease, whereas the actual prices of both increased!
The mix adjusted average uses a consistent measure of the proportion of each type of property and is able to better reflect the true change in prices.

Time Period P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
% Flats 50 30 70 30 70
% Detached 50 70 30 70 30

The mix-adjusted price represents the price for an average or 'typical' house. This should not be confused with the average price of all houses. The latter is usually higher because even though there are fewer more expensive houses sold, their price is such that they bias the simple average to be greater than the price of the typical house.
Calculating the price of a typical house

Calculation

The price of a property will depend on the characteristics of the property. These characteristics could include physical properties of the house, like its design, but other aspects such as the type of neighbourhood the house is located in will also contribute to the price someone is willing to pay. Using mortgage data, the Nationwide house price system can relate all the observed combinations of these factors and relate them to the price of which the house was sold for. From this, the model can estimate how much on average a house would cost given a set values for these characteristics, in particular a set of characteristics that describes the 'typical' house. This typical house does not physically exist, it is an 'average' house across all the characteristics that the model uses. This method is repeated on data sets at different points in time and changes in the price of this typical house reflect only the price changes over the same time periods, and not the mixture of properties sold in the current or pervious periods.

Factors that affect the price of a house

The following are the items that are used to describe the characteristics of a property. There is no set order that these contribute most to the price of the house, although UK location, the type of neighbourhood and house size are consistently the three most important followed by the design of the house.

* UK Location, i.e. part of country
* Type of neighbourhood. The Nationwide index uses an established demographic system that classifies areas in the UK into 56 categories based on the type of people that live there, two examples include retirement and council areas.
* Floor size
* Property design (detached house, semi-detached house, terraced house, bungalow, flat, etc.)
* Tenure (freehold/leasehold/feudal) except for flats, which are nearly all leasehold
* Number of bathrooms (1 or more than 1)
* Type of central heating (full, part or none)
* Type of garage (single garage, double garage or none)
* Number of bedrooms (1,2,3,4 or more than 4)
* Whether property is new or not

Seasonal Adjustment

House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of year irrespective of the overall trend. This tends to be in spring and summer, when more buyers are in the market and hence sellers do not need to discount prices so heavily, in order to achieve a sale. The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 2%; however this is much smaller than the change in volume of property transactions. The seasonal effect is estimated twice a year using established statistical methods.

For the monthly house price index where changes can be as little as 0.1%, seasonal factors are important. The Nationwide therefore produce a seasonally adjusted series for UK house prices which seeks to remove this effect so that the overall trend in prices is more readily apparent.

Seasonal adjustment shows that June is generally the strongest month for house prices (raw prices are 1.3% above their SA level) and January is the weakest (raw prices are 1.9% below their SA level).
prophet-profit
With regard to your question yesterday Doccyboy maybe(?) this is the answer:

2) Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Quarterly
series are seasonally adjusted using data since 1973. The seasonal adjustment is recalculated
quarterly and may lead to revisions.
pod
Have you seen this website before?

http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/
Vespasian
QUOTE (pod @ Mar 3 2008, 04:02 PM) *
Have you seen this website before?

http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/

Funny, it says 807 drops on Daft.ie for the week ending 23 Feb while TDGTTS says 643
doccyboy
Statistics for NI - household income- expenditure - vacant properties - wages


http://www.dsdni.gov.uk/index/stats_and_re...using_stats.htm
monto
When I applied for a job in Northern Ireland, two things surprised me. One was the insanely high house prices (there really should be a much higher price differential between Windsors Belfast and Berkshire...). The other was the equal opportunities question on community background, which asked for your school of origin if you declined to give your community of origin blink.gif

One positive consequence of this nosiness for off-island incomers is that the Northern Ireland Neighbourhood Information Service (NINIS) is far more useful (though less pretty) than upmystreet - it gives info on percentage of renters and OOs, relative measures of crime, environmental quality, employment and education levels, car ownership and use, and allows you to map all sorts of indicators. I use Firefox and add-ons called 'Add to search bar' and 'Context search' to bring up neighbourhood data by right-clicking on a postcode. The site was down for a couple of months, but now it's available again.

Also, Noise Northern Ireland, the local response to a recent European directive on environmental and noise pollution, is full of surprises, with good - if slow - mapping.

Oh, and though upmystreet is crap for NI, aboutmyplace is a bit better. At least it has a decent interface to Windows Live Local's bird's-eye-views.

Still don't know if I'm moving to NI - I might find out next week... even if I don't end up 'round Belfast, I'll be moving house soon, and I've learned a lot on the NI HPC forum. Hope this post helps someone (by way of returning the favour) cool.gif
paul65
I can't believe we forgot to add the Property-Bee tool in here. http://www.property-bee.com/

Remember for the newbies that you'll need to be running Firefox browser at the same time as it is a plugin for that browser only. You can download Firefox here: http://www.mozilla-europe.org/en/firefox/

Happy bee'ing.
pod
To see if a house is on a flood zone click on the grey button near the bottom of this page;



http://www.riversagencyni.gov.uk/index/sta...+Rivers+%26+Sea
Perky Pat
Not sure if this is elsewhere on the forum but I see the Bank of Ireland House Price survey has been updated for Q3. It's now on the Property News website (to little fanfare).

Quite a fantastic looking graph that would make you wonder how anyone in the right mind would have bought a house in 2007. Talk about a peak.... ohmy.gif

http://www.propertynews.com/boisurvey/house-price-index.php

Money quote:
"The air continued to come out of the regional housing balloon in the last quarter - indeed, the evidence from this survey suggests that the rate of deflation actually accelerated in the three-month period to the end of September, both in terms of price and volume of transactions."

subby
Titanic Quarter discussion


www.phpbb88.com/tq


-for owners or anyone interested in the Titanic Quarter.
doccyboy
Belfast Telegraph crime map--- very useful and interactive

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/nicrimemap/
mr slump
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/house-price-crash-calculator

crash calculator
estimates previous prices
Belfast Boy
Nationwide - Regional Quarterly Indices (Post '73) click here.

Some people may not have a spread sheet program, so here is the data going back to 1990.

Nationwide - Northern Ireland quarterly house prices.

Q1 1990 29985
Q2 1990 29280
Q3 1990 27668
Q4 1990 29674
Q1 1991 30490
Q2 1991 30626
Q3 1991 31669
Q4 1991 30808
Q1 1992 31054
Q2 1992 32284
Q3 1992 33280
Q4 1992 33603
Q1 1993 34574
Q2 1993 36328
Q3 1993 36564
Q4 1993 35837
Q1 1994 37942
Q2 1994 37230
Q3 1994 39858
Q4 1994 38773
Q1 1995 37889
Q2 1995 40789
Q3 1995 40808
Q4 1995 42082
Q1 1996 41610
Q2 1996 45068
Q3 1996 46222
Q4 1996 47321
Q1 1997 48052
Q2 1997 50732
Q3 1997 51962
Q4 1997 52447
Q1 1998 53456
Q2 1998 57005
Q3 1998 54869
Q4 1998 57984
Q1 1999 59179
Q2 1999 60972
Q3 1999 64369
Q4 1999 61946
Q1 2000 65462
Q2 2000 70557
Q3 2000 70056
Q4 2000 71238
Q1 2001 72797
Q2 2001 76376
Q3 2001 76635
Q4 2001 73697
Q1 2002 76074
Q2 2002 82548
Q3 2002 83152
Q4 2002 85289
Q1 2003 86655
Q2 2003 90265
Q3 2003 92999
Q4 2003 94028
Q1 2004 97303
Q2 2004 103238
Q3 2004 107509
Q4 2004 110925
Q1 2005 109949
Q2 2005 117149
Q3 2005 119795
Q4 2005 125585
Q1 2006 129321
Q2 2006 146367
Q3 2006 159859
Q4 2006 181031
Q1 2007 203815
Q2 2007 225447
Q3 2007 227970
Q4 2007 224816
Q1 2008 196892
Q2 2008 183476
Q3 2008 159970
doccyboy
land registry info

quote

Computerised Land Registry records are available for public scrutiny at
the customer information centre in Land Registers headquarters, Lincoln
Building, 27 - 45 Great Victoria Street, Belfast.
The legislation governing the operation of Land Registries in other
areas of the United Kingdom is significantly different to that in
Northern Ireland.
Customers who make application for registration in Northern Ireland are
not required in all instances to provide the price paid for a property.
Where the details of a price which reflects the market value of a
property is provided as part of the registration process it will be
recorded on the register.
There are no plans at present to change the Land Registry rules to make
it compulsory for customers to provide details of house prices when
making an application to register a change of house ownership.

This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.