One thing I’ve noticed speaking to people at work, friends, friends of friends in that there are people thinking about buying that simply do not think like people on this forum. That’s probably slowing down the crash party a little.
People on this forum may hold very different in viewpoints and draw different conclusions, but all take an interest in their money, wider political and economic conditions.
Most people simply don’t. Full stop. It can be frustrating as people who are intelligent suddenly turn into slack-jawed morons when the topic turns to the housing market.
Here’s what I’ve noticed:
Many people consider high house prices in a vacuum, without considering historic fluctuations, the role of easy credit, unchecked speculation, and all the other things that are bread and butter for hpc.co.uk readers. When they see a tiny, moulding converted flat for 130k, that’s instantly what it’s ‘worth’, they don’t know or care that it cost 42k in 1999 and is still the same miserable pile of bricks. If they get an offer of 125k accepted, they’ll think they’ve landed themselves a huge bargain.
To them, housing costs are just another thing that ‘everyone knows’ goes ‘up and up’, like the council tax, or the gas bill. Something to sigh about and then get on with things. If they could borrow eight times their income they would. It’s not a question of ignoring the evidence pointing towards a crash, it’s that they simply haven’t sought it out. That’s why when you mention it they look at you as if you’re spinning a yarn about the JFK assassination.
I spoke to one chap in his late twenties on a little short of 20k who’s been saving for a flat for several years and has around 30k. He would end up with a mortgage of 100k for a one bed flat. He hates shared houses and living ‘like a student’. Fair enough.
He now knows some lenders would probably cough up the cash he needs. I said it might be good to wait as prices were flat and even slipping in many areas.
He said ‘I can’t get negative equity because I’m going to put down 30k’.
I didn’t want to say that might not be enough ‘buffer’ and sound like some extremist, so asked if he’d be happy to see the money he’d scrimped for years and years to save just evaporate in a falling market.
‘Well, when I buy, I’ll stay there ‘long term’’.
(Funny how that ‘long term’ is the knee-jerk meejduh phrase on everyone’s lips, kinda like the phrase ‘drift back to work’ was the key phrase of the miner’s strike. ‘It’s over - there’s a drift back to work’, ‘You’re ok, think ‘long term’. ‘Look into my eyes, not around the eyes, right, you’re under’).
Basically, as soon as he had enough deposit and could find someone to lend him a huge mortgage he couldn’t wait to dive in. He doesn’t seem to have much idea that interest rates have risen and could rise more, or that earnings ratios are historically high, or that mortgage approvals have plummeted. But he can reel off the idea that ‘long term’ stops ‘negative equity’.
‘How long, is “long term”’, I asked?
‘Oh, 2-3 years’
Someone here said the crash is currently like the cartoons where someone dashes off a cliff and hangs there for ages before they realise their fate. That’s pretty much the state of play. The crash is here. It just needs blokes like this to start looking down.
