http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/7054321.stm

FP's forecast is there too.

But Jonathan Davis of housepricecrash.co.uk rejected such predictions by the IMF and others.

He told the BBC that they were "economic nonsense by clear vested interests."

He forecast "a national average fall of 30 to 40% and in some regions perhaps - particularly Northern Ireland - more.

"It is so crystal clear it is unbelievable - the vested interests know exactly what is going to happen but it is in their interests not to say."

Well done FP!!! You are starting to penetrate the last bastion of VI - the BBC! It is good that we are seeing bearish quotes for once on the beeb. Not long now - keep the faith.

Expect more reporting like this in the coming months as the redundancies start to mount at the beeb, these disgruntled journalists will not go quietly.

FP penetrating auntie

....Darling is a Clown..!.his revisions to capital gains tax will encourage short term property speculators and will convert houses into a commodity like Gold and Rubber.... the BTL industry has already encouraged this market status....Darling should have erased the tax advantages enjoyed by BTLers and this would have cut the HPI in the market....the fool is probably a VI and BTler rolled into one....

I like the way the BBC have juxtaposed the quotes to make the CML look like they're living on another planet:



Yep, let's all be modern and overstrech ourselves. Perhaps the next financial advice show should be presented by Jane Fonda - "Go for the burn!"

http://www.theherald.co.uk/business/news/d...1774593.0.0.php

Nice try!!!

Read the above atritcle. The MPC are not able to cut rates for the forseeable and that means continue MoM negative growth. The MPC know noe that if they cut rates (as McStalin is screaming at them to do) that the pound will be toast. If the pound devalues as a result of a careless rate cut (a la Aug 2005) then this will import even more inflation leading to even higher future (delayed) inflation. Either way (and lets not forget the credit crunch and all the recent refused mortgages) the UK housing market is dead.

Top of UK housing Market 9th August 2007.

I think it was the CML who said there was no sub prime inthe UK

Maybe the CML should change their name to Clueless Monkey Lenders if they believe selfcert isn't sub prime.

Ah, the finger-pointing's started.




The conspirators have fallen out and are trying to pin the blame on each other: a sure sign that they've seen trouble heading this way. It's excellent that FP's managed to get in there and supply a third viewpoint.

That CML chap sounds rather stressed.

he's noticed that there's a hole in the bottom of the trough, so his lovely swill is draining away quicker than he can eat it. So he's desperately eating as quickly as he can, and he has no time to talk to the likes of you!

I've been going on about that for weeks now, they can't reduce rates its a either a hold or up, if they go down then inflation rockets thats a given, while oil etc is rising in price.
over the past 10 years we have witnessed some incredible spending patterns going on in the western world, by people that can't really afford it. I just can't believe people would put their family at risk for some plastic good that loses value over time.

This reccesion will start not by unemployment but by lack of spending/debt and tight credit criteria.
The large banks are taking massive losses more than whats being reported, but what they are doing is, masking it behind some very clever accounting and what they can't mask they publish.
My personal view, some large banks are bust, but that's my view.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/7054321.stm

He told the BBC that they were "economic nonsense by clear vested interests."

He forecast "a national average fall of 30 to 40% and in some regions perhaps - particularly Northern Ireland - more.

"It is so crystal clear it is unbelievable - the vested interests know exactly what is going to happen but it is in their interests not to say."



It's still warming but I, for one, am a little cosier...

fp

Coogan says ""Arrears remain historically very low, possessions are very low, and we have a million extra home-owners.""

I thought possessions were at near record levels

perhaps he means that possessions will look like they are low now compared to what they will be in a years time

Great work FP! Nothing like shooting from the hip

...although we are talking short term gains, we are looking at the market medium to long term ...and first time buyers in the future should not be competing on an uneven pitch with property speculators & BTLers ....

I heard that - wasn't Martin Ellis wheeled out?

'Cheese monger says now is the best time to buy cheese' says mortgage-lending man.

Crikey.

Michael Curgon (sic) is such a gimp.

No they are still low in relation to the last crash but the trend is now definitely up. Repos have started to increase a lot in percentage terms over the last year but this is from a low base. This will change and will probably look similar to the figures below.

Year Number of homes
repossessed Fraction of homes
repossessed
1991 75,540 1 in 130
1992 68,540 1 in 145
1993 58,540 1 in 173
1994 49,210 1 in 212
1995 49,410 1 in 213
1996 42,560 1 in 250
1997 32,770 1 in 328
1998 33,870 1 in 319
1999 29,990 1 in 366
2000 22,870 1 in 489
2001 18,280 1 in 615
2002 11,970 1 in 949
2003 7,830 1 in 1,463
2004 6,230 1 in 1,848


Can someone please provide the most upto date figures (Charlie the Tramp?) as I can't find them on the CML website. The above info. was taken from there but I saved it as a word document.

Thanks.

your figures look a little low to me

In January to March (2007) there were 21,931 orders made at county courts, one per cent up from the first three months of 2006.

That looks like 88,000 if you extrapolate to year end for 2007

http://www.financialadvice.co.uk/news/7/mo...-orders-up.html

NB the CML recently admitted that their stats were massive underestimates because they had basically assumed there was no sub-prime here. (See Newsnight programme for more details)

From Hansard 23rd July 2007

LONDON ONLY possession orders made

2004 7662 orders made
2005 12990 orders made
2006 15102 orders made

Yes your figures are too low

I take it you mean the CML figures are too low.

Mortgages Properties
oustanding, taken into
end period possession
in period

Number Number
1971 4,506,000 2800
1972 4,770,000 1760
1973 4,862,000 1220
1974 4,910,000 3290
1975 5,076,000 4870
1976 5,322,000 4950
1977 5,582,000 4680
1978 5,896,000 4130
1979 6,058,000 2910
1980 6,210,000 3480
1981 6,336,000 4870
1982 6,518,000 6860
1983 6,846,000 8420
1984 7,313,000 12400
1985 7,717,000 19300
1986 8,138,000 24090
1987 8,283,000 26390
1988 8,564,000 18,510
1989 9,125,000 15,810
1990 9,415,000 43,890
1991 9,815,000 75,540
1992 9,922,000 68,540
1993 10,137,000 58,540
1994 10,410,000 49,210
1995 10,521,000 49,410
1996 10,637,000 42,560
1997 10,738,000 32,800
1998 10,821,000 33,900
1999 10,982,000 30,000
2000 11,173,000 22,900
2001 11,247,000 18,300
2002 11,364,000 12,000
2003 R 11,452,000 8,500
2004 R 11,512,000 8,000
2005 R 11,595,000 15,100
2006 R 11,719,000 22,700
Source: CML Research

Note: This are actual repossessions not possession orders. 2 different things. PO donot always turn into actual repos.

Edited for spelling. Changed possessions to repossessions!!!

yes of course, by your figures, i meant the figures you quoted.

Who do you beleive, the courts in parliament or the VI CML

These are court actions by lenders that result in an ORDER being made, just in London.
The lenders have gone through the whole court process in these cases at great expense to the borrower and the CML are saying that most of these do not end in the borrower losing their home.

I have my doubts quite frankly.

In fact eventhe CML tables you quote are both different, the second one for 2004 being over 4 times higher.

The courts figures will be accurate, thats what civil servants do all day, the CML probably dont represent all mortgage lenders, and mortgage lenders may not report accurately either. None of them want a reputation for turfing folks out ont he streets.

I agree though buffer, if someone can get figures it would be interesting

98% of mortgage lending

You are getting confused - starting court proceedings isn't the same as repossessing a property. Most do not result in repossession.

I worked in a county court during the crash year (1989-1995). Most orders did not result in repos. but there were an awful lot. .



Correct.

Those figures are possession orders: that means its been to court, payment hasnt been offered and the house now belongs to the finance company.

The buyer has lost their home unless there is a pretty good reason for them appeal the decision.

In the last recession, people didnt even bother going to court- these figures were not recorded and were known as quiet possessions.