QUOTE(Togo Joe @ Sep 27 2007, 11:22 PM)

Actually, I think DianaM and Catara are both right (and both wrong).
1) Rumania is a cracking little country run by crooks.
2) The Land Registry, issues of Title etc are nowhere near as good as in other latin countries. And if you've ever got Title issues, you need steep discounts.
3) There is no yield. DianaM is talking nonsense when, even if salaries increase dramatically, she asserts rents will increase. There is no known case in the entire post-Soviet bloc EU entrants where increases in income have translated into increased rents. The marginal propensity to spend is never directed towards rent. Capital is so scarce, increased income is treated as capital and deployed accordingly. The only exception to this has been in cities where the local population have had to compete with foreigners. And that is a purely urban phenomenon. There have been nominal increases but these have been destroyed by inflation.
4) So if there's no yield, you'll run into a "Minsky Moment" sooner or later which they are currently re-discovering in NY and London and pretty soon will do in Spain. And that is, when the insufficient income generated by an asset is artificially disguised by capital gains, you always need capital gains to plug the cash-flow loss, and when these stop, the merry-go-round does and assets get re-priced based on their income-generating ability. This will happen in many parts of the States, large parts of Southern England and almost all of Spain. It's also true of Rumania. Prices have run way ahead of their investment value. The Capital Price of a Property Asset can only run ahead of its Yield because of Credit. Geddit ???? Or (zzzzzzz) it has to be "different this time". And there is a little bit of that in Eastern Europe.
5) I repeat, Rumania is a great little country, a poor man's Ticino, at a fifth of the price, but it's still not cheap.
6) Finally, property prices often depend on social infrastructure. You might argue that Rumanian prices are a tenth of London prices but that's not the whole story. Property prices are often a case of arbitrage. A few years back agricultural land in the Punjab rocketed and lots of them cashed in and bought farms in Canada - what really swung it was 1. Canadian re-training grants 2. Free Universities for the children 3. Pensions 4. Health Service. When you put a monetary value to all that Canadian farms were actually cheaper than the Punjab. Now, let's be clear about this. No Buy-to-Let baron is ever going to be given re-training grants, etc in Rumania.
7) In short, there are good reasons, why Rumanian property has to be cheap. Until Prague and Berlin have proved the case otherwise, demand draconian discounts to EU property.
8) In twenty years time, you might not have a Health Service in Rumania, so it's, at the risk of some understatement, unclear how many Westerners you are really going to have retiring there (in what is, admittedly, a very beautiful country.) The Scandinavian countries and Switzerland have sucked every dentist, every anaesthetist etc etc from Poland and Germany. The same will happen in Rumania. All skilled medical will leave and the country will fall into the hands of other professionals, who do not have cross-border skills (at least in the same way) such as lawyers and accountants but even they will either leave or become barons.
Catara thinks Spain is ridiculously over-priced and I tend to agree. But there is a reason the rich and successful think Barcelona and Palma are worth silly prices. And that is, that they are seriously nice places. Ignoring the silly bubble on the East Coast and around Malaga, it still has to be said that Seville and Granada are sunny places with sunny people and sunny food. From Norilsk in the North to Kosovo in the South, the rain in Spain is betta, innit ?
Togo Joe (the Ni-Kto from Kyoto)
Togo Joe, I like your post but I do not agree fully. This is why:
1. We must not forget Romania is close to the Balcan area and corruption is a tradition in these parts.
2. Taking title in Romania is safe (pitfalls are everywhere, if anyone is so naive as to think can purchase on a foreign market without legal advice, then he should stay home, right?)
3. A Brit buddy of mine rented his flat by the House of the People with 900EUR/month. If this is not a good rent, I shoot meself! Another firend of mine has a flat in Budapest in the centre and the rental revenue on that is around 5%, while for the one in Bucharest, teh Brit gets 8% easily.
Never stated that yield applies to all properties sold in Romania. There are areas of interest in this country. However, to respond Catara once again, I don't think Bucharest is such a top investment destination anymore, as prices in the centre of the city reached 5000EUR and that is too funny to talk about!
4. Never claimed Romania was cheap (should it be?), only mentioned affordable and having a huge potential.
5. Even Prince Charles bought here and it wasn't a blue-blood mood in it. There are free universities here, name a few free good ones in UK or even in Spain. The kids here get scholarships in the major universities of teh world based on what they learn home, so learning here can't be that bad.
6. Demand for Eastern Eurpoe is pretty high actually among a certain target of investors.
7. Please tell me on what you fundament your statement re the inexistence of Health Service in Romania in 20 years.
Anyone who likes to live under the sun is likely to choose Spain. Does that surprise anyone?
And have I mentioned anywhere anything about retiring to Romania? I am only thinking of buying, renting, selling in 3 years max.
Catara, I see this country really upset you. On the other hand, instead of calling the youth of Romania mediocre, take a look at what the youth of Romania is doing abroad. I mean what jobs are being offered to them abroad: au-pair, nanny, medical care jobs (lowest rank most of the time), bartenders, nudy bar dancers, construction, agriculture, etc.