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House Price Crash forum > Investment > Overseas property investment
agtisch
Whats peoples views on the impact of todays moroccan elections? With widespread belief that the The main opposition, the Islamist Party of Justice and Development (PJD), is expected to do well in the polls.
Do you think their involvement in the new parliament will have an effect on the future tourist development of the country or little impact as the king will still rule all?

dogbox
In the end old men with beards and fanatical dogmas cant give the majority what they want; decent schools & hospitals, secure job market, food on the plate and above all peace prosperity and stability.

Even in Pakistan the majority want nothing to do with extremists. I was surprised to learn on BBC World service that Pakistan has more pure pop TV channels (thats western style pop - just the sort the fundamentalists dispise) than anywhere else - and many of the biggest stars have topped the charts for weeks with songs against extremists fundamentilsm. One chart topper is called 'This is not us' and I think has been no1 for months.

Whereever you find extremist dogma, for example with the current Iranain leadership, you find a lot of unrest in the population as thier standard of living declines due to the old men with beards being not focused on the things that really matter. Furthermore, the impact from economic sanctions or in the case of Afghanistan - war, undermine the tradecraft of extremists.

For a while the populace tolerate, even cheer - on the dogmatics, but this soon changes.

Muslims accross the world most of whom are moderate peaceful people, are comming to a consensus that the fanatics will only bring hardship, unrest and division. Indeed many of us in the west feel the same of the other extremists - Dubwya and his dinosaur red necks the Neo Cons. Extrenism in all forms simply doesnt work and always gets found out. Religious divisions is, well errrrrr devisive and benefits no one.

Morocco from everything I've read is a tolerant peaceful place. Of course there will be extremism just as there is anywhere, but I'm very confident the people recognise that thier lot will improve most if they stick with the course the King has set. The monied elite in Morocco have too much at stake and in the end money talks.

I am encouraged by the preponderance of major players involved with touristic development. The likes of EMAAR, Quatar holdings, SunCity, Hilton, Barcelo, Fadesa, Forte an many many others.

They surely wouldnt be pouring such vast sums in if they saw trouble ahead.

Will the PJD fair well, very possibly but on the other hand there are examples of very extreme Governments in places the attract significant investment, DUBAI for example. Lets not forget that Saudi Women are'nt allowed to drive!!

I am advised the King is a direct descendant of the Prophet (peace be upon him) and that this is a valuable currency in the Muslim world.

The Moroccan constitution appears to limit the power of political parties in favour of the King. From what I've read the King is the master and no one would dare seek to undermine this balance.


BIGLOG - I would welcome very much your input here as long as it's a rational evidence based assesment.
The Soup Dragon
Decision of some of the worlds largest developers to invest in Morocco comes down to the risk versus reward ratio for them (not the same as for us.) They are building properties for less than half of what we are paying for them. They will make good money even if prices fall significantly. The risks, as they assessed them, will have been well worth while given the reward. The equation is different for individuals investing off-plan. We are effectively speculating on which way prices will go and an increased Islamic element in power certainly doesn't bode well. (Time will tell if its a bad thing, but I'm sure most investing realise it isn't a good thing.)
agtisch
QUOTE(The Soup Dragon @ Sep 10 2007, 01:11 PM) *
Decision of some of the worlds largest developers to invest in Morocco comes down to the risk versus reward ratio for them (not the same as for us.) They are building properties for less than half of what we are paying for them. They will make good money even if prices fall significantly. The risks, as they assessed them, will have been well worth while given the reward. The equation is different for individuals investing off-plan. We are effectively speculating on which way prices will go and an increased Islamic element in power certainly doesn't bode well. (Time will tell if its a bad thing, but I'm sure most investing realise it isn't a good thing.)


Soup, you've become alot less positive of late about med saidia, is there any reason in particular you think it will become less successful than you previously thought?
RE elections - with the results in, the islamic party came second - i just think very little will change. The king is still the king, he rules all - he'll install a PM who agrees with his vision etc etc.
amoflaherty
QUOTE(agtisch @ Sep 10 2007, 01:37 PM) *
Soup, you've become alot less positive of late about med saidia, is there any reason in particular you think it will become less successful than you previously thought?
RE elections - with the results in, the islamic party came second - i just think very little will change. The king is still the king, he rules all - he'll install a PM who agrees with his vision etc etc.


Islamic party came second, but Algeria is starting to kick off again and that is right on Med Sadia doorstep. This is a big issue for Sadia development I think.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/africa/09/07...last/index.html

The Soup Dragon
Agtisch

Glad to see result of election – thanks for the post.

My post was not specific to Saidia, it applies to most developments in Morocco that individuals like you and I have invested in / are considering.

When I see comments that I don’t agree with, or know not to be accurate, I normally post a response. This is one such occassion.
Jesus of nazareth
QUOTE(dogbox @ Sep 7 2007, 10:46 AM) *
In the end old men with beards and fanatical dogmas cant give the majority what they want; decent schools & hospitals, secure job market, food on the plate and above all peace prosperity and stability.

Even in Pakistan the majority want nothing to do with extremists. I was surprised to learn on BBC World service that Pakistan has more pure pop TV channels (thats western style pop - just the sort the fundamentalists dispise) than anywhere else - and many of the biggest stars have topped the charts for weeks with songs against extremists fundamentilsm. One chart topper is called 'This is not us' and I think has been no1 for months.

Whereever you find extremist dogma, for example with the current Iranain leadership, you find a lot of unrest in the population as thier standard of living declines due to the old men with beards being not focused on the things that really matter. Furthermore, the impact from economic sanctions or in the case of Afghanistan - war, undermine the tradecraft of extremists.

For a while the populace tolerate, even cheer - on the dogmatics, but this soon changes.

Muslims accross the world most of whom are moderate peaceful people, are comming to a consensus that the fanatics will only bring hardship, unrest and division. Indeed many of us in the west feel the same of the other extremists - Dubwya and his dinosaur red necks the Neo Cons. Extrenism in all forms simply doesnt work and always gets found out. Religious divisions is, well errrrrr devisive and benefits no one.

Morocco from everything I've read is a tolerant peaceful place. Of course there will be extremism just as there is anywhere, but I'm very confident the people recognise that thier lot will improve most if they stick with the course the King has set. The monied elite in Morocco have too much at stake and in the end money talks.

I am encouraged by the preponderance of major players involved with touristic development. The likes of EMAAR, Quatar holdings, SunCity, Hilton, Barcelo, Fadesa, Forte an many many others.

They surely wouldnt be pouring such vast sums in if they saw trouble ahead.

Will the PJD fair well, very possibly but on the other hand there are examples of very extreme Governments in places the attract significant investment, DUBAI for example. Lets not forget that Saudi Women are'nt allowed to drive!!

I am advised the King is a direct descendant of the Prophet (peace be upon him) and that this is a valuable currency in the Muslim world.

The Moroccan constitution appears to limit the power of political parties in favour of the King. From what I've read the King is the master and no one would dare seek to undermine this balance.
BIGLOG - I would welcome very much your input here as long as it's a rational evidence based assesment.


Here endith the first lesson from the new King Dogbox Bible, todays reading taken the book of Bogbox, starting at chapter Dogbox throught to chapter WakeMeUpBeforeYouGoGo.
euroscooby
QUOTE(amoflaherty @ Sep 10 2007, 05:20 PM) *
Islamic party came second, but Algeria is starting to kick off again and that is right on Med Sadia doorstep. This is a big issue for Sadia development I think.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/africa/09/07...last/index.html


There is no doubt that Algeria on the doorstop is something to keep an eye on. One cannot be blind to such dangerous elements.

However its worth reflecting that the German authorities appear to have foiled an attack on Frankfurt International Airport and the nearby US Air base. I doubt that this will reflect in house prices in Frankfurt.

It is just pure luck that the attacks on the West End of London and Glasgow Airport in June did not kill anyone. House prices will not have faltered because of this situation.

ETA had operated in Spain for decades AND targeted tourist areas. Made no obvious difference. Turkey and Egypt also spring to mind.

We all live in uncertain times. There is no 'safe' country and no 'safe' property investment. The price we have paid reflects the risks.
mozo
QUOTE(The Soup Dragon @ Sep 10 2007, 01:11 PM) *
Decision of some of the worlds largest developers to invest in Morocco comes down to the risk versus reward ratio for them (not the same as for us.) They are building properties for less than half of what we are paying for them. They will make good money even if prices fall significantly. The risks, as they assessed them, will have been well worth while given the reward. The equation is different for individuals investing off-plan. We are effectively speculating on which way prices will go and an increased Islamic element in power certainly doesn't bode well. (Time will tell if its a bad thing, but I'm sure most investing realise it isn't a good thing.)



In principle I agree with your comments but the same scenario can be said of any country where there isn’t an established property market, the developers will always be looking to buy at the lowest price and hike the costs for the first phase investor in order to safeguard poor/slow sales. The ideal outcome is for both parties to gain on capital appreciation over the build phase to completion. I’m still very confident that Emaar, Fadesa and the like would not go lightly into a venture where they did not fully appreciate all the risks, be it from terrorism, civil war or housing market crashes.
Morocco is a country ripe for picking by the developers as the proof can be seen in all big cities/towns where developments are currently underway.

Mozo
The Soup Dragon
Mozo. I think we have similar views on this topic. My comment was about Morocco as its a Moroccan thread, but as you have pointed out, also holds for a lot of other countries. Key point, which I think you are saying you agree with, is that the risk reward ratio is very different for developers than for off-plan investors.
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