LOOK WHEN Barratt bottomed:


When the Mainstream started screaming that "Boom Days are gone forever" sentiment had reached
extreme enough levels to be only weeks away from a bottom in Builder prices. The actual low in
UK prices came over a year later, showing that the Builders were once again a good leading indicator.

= = =
The Builders gave a great early warning of the Top in UK prices:
Video : Are the Builders signaling a 2008 UK Property Crash ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNeCetQeLLU

A SIMILAR THREAD was started on the Main Board yesterday:

Who Will Play The Next Market Cycle?,
Confounded @: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...=54262&st=0
- - - - -

"With the knowledge you have gained from this housing cycle will you play the next property cycle?
. . .
I know there will be people who will reply to this that there are thousands waiting in the wings to prop up the current market/cycle with similar views to mine, but I am not expecting an opportunity for quite some time if at all in the next 20 years."

(my own response was):

SURE. I'm already playing the upcycle- but not in the UK.

Germany and Hong Kong already experienced Huge Price falls- like 69% in HK from 1997 to 2003.

Buying AFTER the downcycle has played itself out can make good sense. But in HK you needed to wait 6 years, and over 10 years in Germany. Those who bought too quickly did not do well

FEWER HOMES FOR SALE - is a rather important start, in forming a Bottom.
We are certainly not there yet... even in the US, where the decline is more than 1 year ahead of the UK

U.S. Economy: Existing Home Sales Decline, Inventories Climb to 16 Year High

By Shobhana Chandra

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned homes fell in July for a fifth month and the glut of unsold properties swelled to a 16-year high as the housing slump in the U.S. dragged on.

With no recovery in sight for housing, lower property values and higher mortgage costs threaten to weaken consumer spending, economists said. The Federal Reserve this month acknowledged a growing risk to economic growth because of the rout in credit markets. Stocks weakened.

Purchases declined 0.2 percent to an annual rate of 5.75 million, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. While the retreat was less than forecast, inventories of single-family homes rose to the equivalent of a 9.2 months' supply and sales dropped 9 percent.

``We are very likely to see home sales continue to drop,'' said Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, who accurately predicted the number. ``There's a big imbalance between supply and demand, with lots of people who want to sell and lots of hesitant buyers.''

Sales were projected to fall 0.9 percent to a 5.7 million annual rate, according to the median estimate of 74 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Predictions ranged from 5.5 million to 6 million. Existing home sales averaged 6.51 million in 2006.

Median Price

The median price of an existing home dropped 0.6 percent in July from a year ago to $228,900, the Realtors group said.

The supply of homes for sale at the end of the month climbed 5.1 percent to 4.59 million. At the current sales pace, that represented 9.6 months' worth, up from 9.1 months' worth at the end of the prior month.

The inventory of single-family homes represented a 9.2 months' supply, the most since October 1991.

Purchases of single-family homes declined 0.4 percent to an annual rate of 5 million. Sales of condos and co-ops rose 1.4 percent to a 750,000 rate.

The Midwest accounted for the decline in sales. Purchases declined 2.2 percent in the Midwest and were unchanged in the South. They increased 1 percent in the Northeast and 1.8 percent in the West.

/more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home