perhaps its time to sell gold as the amatuers are now pouring in????? maybe???

ok, if we knew 100% that we were heading for a period of hyperinflation, surely it would be a good idea to take out a huge loan and buy.... anything.

Trust me, you ain't seen anything yet. The day you see queues waiting for ATS bullion in London to open and people fighting to buy a few krugerrands or sovereigns, then you know it's time to sell.

I think you are right.

Any ideas where one can by physical silver please?

Doubtful.

The last iterations fiat isn't going to come back that strongly, the forces that made it fiat aren't as strong.

There was an interesting link on here a couple of weeks ago to a post from a guy who lived through the Argentinian banking/financial meltdown. His view on gold was that jewellery was the best option. Dealers paid no more for expensive coins than they did for jewellery in a meltdown. Few people want to give you food in exchange for krugs or maples. So it all depends how bad you think it may get. If we're going to get hyperinflation I would buy assets I can use, like a house with a garden, long-lasting food and water, seeds, a reliable cheap diesel car and some protection. Physical gold may be great as an investment hedge but that's where it starts and ends.

Ofc, the very best protection in such circumstances is a wide range of friends and family who you can rely upon.

THe problem I have with gold is that it's value traditionally was derived from the church saying "no gold ring, no nookie". Every man needed it to get married. That shit just doesn't wash these days.

your not 100% certain are you cgnao?

Bairds (goldline.co.uk) & Chards...

I often go to a cracking jewellery auction, I've got some absolute bargains over the years. For example the other week I got a solid 18ct gold ladies Omega watch with diamonds on bezel and the face for £500 + vat. When sold it retailed at £4,300. Just put a new battery in it and had it cleaned, it's like new TBH you could buy just about anything there and turn a profit on it if you were one of those there e-bayers with good feedback.

Might be a good thing if u are young but i am near retirement.

It has taken a hell of alot of self dicipline to pay off the mortgage and be debt free. I just do not want feckin debt again - I think banks are filthy scum and they will never ever have me by the vitals again.

I save in gold and keep the minimum in gordy's pretty paper.

Thanks for coming back Cgnao.

Hyperinflation has already begun. This is 100% correct, guaranteed.

But like a wounded animal, central banks will make every possible effort to create volatility in order to wipe out the speculators which hope to profit from it.

So if you know what you are doing and are ready to face margin calls, by all means borrow and buy anything of value.

But if you don't, just buy, pay cash, no margin, hold on tight, wait, see and eventually laugh.

Sudden, unexpected huge losses in unlikely places.

This is the mark of the derivative beast.

They want to save the system, but they can't.

This is 100% correct, guaranteed.

Protect yourselves.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/23/business/bailout.php
New worry in Europe over credit crisis
By Mark Landler and Julia Werdigier
Published: November 23, 2007

FRANKFURT: Europe is hardly a dominant player in writing insurance guarantees for issuers of debt - a mostly American business that makes it easier for municipal governments, schools, banks, and even professional sports clubs to sell highly rated bonds.

Yet the announcement Thursday by two major French banks that they would buy out a bond insurer owned by a Paris-based subsidiary underscored the extent to which the American mortgage crisis continued to infect Europe's financial system in new and unexpected places.

The decision by Groupe Banque Populaire and Groupe Caisse d'Épargne to pay $1.5 billion to take ownership of the insurer, CIFG Holding, from the investment bank Natixis was designed to preserve CIFG's AAA credit rating, which is considered vital to its ability to do business.

Like other insurers, most of which are based in the United States or are American-owned, CIFG was at risk because ratings agencies questioned whether it could guarantee deteriorating mortgage loans.

....

But Europeans were rattled this week by news that Swiss Re, the world's biggest reinsurance company, had written down $1.07 billion in the value of derivatives backed by mortgage securities.

Two weeks earlier, Swiss Re had reassured investors that its exposure to problems in the American subprime market was limited. The company reported third-quarter results earlier this month that suggested it had emerged from the credit crisis reasonably unscathed.

then we should take out a huge loan and buy anything that does'nt rot - 100% yeh?

i would be careful about this, hyperinflation is not 100% guaranteed although I used to think it was inevitable.....if you look at how the global credit market is seizing up the problem is that all the liquidity being pumped into the market (that is drained eventually btw it's not indefinite) is not inspiring confidence and noone is lending to anyone because the risk is still unknown and nothing is being marked to market, the banks have huge losses hidden in L3 assets and SIVs off-balance so they are hoarding all their capital and a huge amount of money is being destroyed everyday because of failing derivative pricing models and ratings (just look at the ABX, noone wants to touch this stuff), this will only get worse as defaults increase in the US and when the velocity of money falls as sharply as it has been what results is actually deflation, because to have inflation you need net debt creation.

i still can't see an argument that holds up against this tbh, if you find one let me know. it actually makes sense that the banks would not want hyperinflation (and lets be honest, at the end of the day they run the show) because it decreases the value of their outstanding debt repayments, and why would they want that? what we have today is a huge global credit bubble driven by derivatives, that is what has caused asset and house price inflation and when it bursts you get the opposite....no?

Not quite.

HSBC will come in with 12 to 13 billion & RBS with 10 to 11 billion. Didn't Barclays hint at 6?

As for asset value - huge numbers.

This isn't goiing to lead to any 1 of these banks fleeing the UK or Europe.
RBS have just bought ABN Amro!

It is worth focussing on the facts aswell as the possibilities.

So now they insure themselves? Isn't that essentially the same as being unrated?

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT

CONTAGION SPREADING FROM CREDIT TO EQUITY AND INTEREST RATE DERIVATIVES

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb36e162-9a07-11...?nclick_check=1
Derivative liquidity crisis ‘to continue’

By David Oakley in London

Published: November 23 2007 23:38 | Last updated: November 23 2007 23:38

The world’s biggest derivatives markets could suffer serious liquidity problems until the end of the year, bankers have warned.

As worries over the health of the financial system weigh heavily on banks and funds, the vast over-the-counter markets in equity, credit and interest rate derivatives have seen trading volumes slow to a trickle.

....

The sharp slowdown in these markets is a serious warning sign of the growing problems in the financial world as they are usually highly liquid, turning over vast amounts of trade every day.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, over-the-counter equity, credit and interest rate derivatives markets are worth $400,000bn, dwarfing the $60,000bn in the value of share trading on the world’s 10 biggest stock exchanges.

ECB set to pump cash into money markets
By Ralph Atkins and Ivar Simensen in Frankfurt and David Oakley in London
Published: November 23 2007 11:46

Fresh emergency action to pump funds into the money markets was announced on Friday night by the European Central Bank amid renewed fears that liquidity in the credit markets is again starting to dry up.

On Friday night, the bank said it would inject an unspecified amount of extra liquidity next week, noting ?re-emerging tensions? ? and would do so until at least the end of the year.

Earlier, Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, had pledged continuing action to keep short-term money market interest rates in line with its main policy rate.

The new promise of intervention came as three-month US interbank rates rose for the eighth day in a row to 5.04 per cent, more than half a point higher than the US Fed Funds target rate of 4.5 per cent.

Three-month money usually trades just above the Fed Funds rate which is 4.5 per cent. Europe and UK money markets are showing similar strains.

link

cgnao would i be right in saying that the ultimate place that these losses will show up is in pension funds?

Let me explain the first to feel the pain were the sub prime lenders/brokers - [The place of origin]. It then spread to the CDO/CDS market... isn't the logical step that in time pensions would also be effected?

Also re what was being said about 2 pages ago i am the average bloke no uni degree however have worked in finance all my adult life. Love learning about this stuff and have been looking at this site around 18 months now.

As an analogy of the current economic situation and learning about the complex financial models etc that underpin it, i would say it is kind of like The X Files.

Any long term viewers of that show would know there was a long term story running through the series about a mass conspiracy and as a kid just as you thought you got what was going on, you learned something new that opened your eyes further and made you think damn how could i have been so blind.

I thank everyone on here that attempts to explain these complex issues.

Regards

The Black Sheeple

The ultimate loser is every person or institution holding

1) unmarketable securities (they lose 100% now)
2) rapidly depreciating currency and/or any investment promising to pay currency in the future (they lose through loss of purchasing power)

Practically everybody, apart from precious few. And even those stand to lose from social unrest.

No price, no market, no value.

This is the mark of the derivative beast.

Protect yourselves.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/bu...amp;oref=slogin
Published: November 23, 2007

LONDON (Reuters) - The credit crisis is putting pressure on investors -- even those who do not have to mark assets to market every quarter -- to cope with valuing complex securities when they cannot rely on market prices.

I would be very worried living in large overpopulated cities. When too many people chase too few resources and jobs the results are not pretty.

Most of it has no value. That is probably why they are having trouble.

Someone should be saying that's ridiculous of course it has value, shouldn't they? C'mon, someone must believe?

ask the credit rating agencies- they valued the stuff- can they have been so wrong????

Its called "Marked To Myth", I suspect many new funds with 2-5 year minimum tie in's to be started in the hopes the dept tidal wave can be postponed until the credit markets pick up...With losses reported in headlines now going up in the 10's of billions a week, you'd have to be a nutter to buy in now.

Hell the banks don't even trust each other (libor rate), they are looking for a super SIV fund to pour thier toxic waste into, in the hope they can hide the level 3 time bombs. I wouldn't want a lazy pension fund manager of mine to be investing in that!

Luckily many in the UK stopped trusting lazy pension fund managers a long time ago, and don't trust Gordo to come knocking with yet another post-it note IOU. While he steals any real wealth thats left. Hence our rampant HPI.

I made a decision not to pay into a pension fund 6 years ago

In light of the impending financial catastrophe, I'm glad I made this decision

The way things are going, the hardest hit victims will be people with pensions and savings. The socialization of risk will be paid for with inflation and the decimation of pensions, not by the people who created the problem in the first place

The big question is, will the UK taxpayer tolerate paying for the index linked pensions of public sector workers and civil servants who so far, are insulated from risk? I suspect not, because the consequences of the unfolding calamity will dictate that all the other workers in the private sector will refuse to subsidize the gold plated pension schemes these people enjoy. It'll be very interesting to see how this pans out!

Perhaps I should rephrase that

The private sector will be incapable of paying public sector pensions, simply because the productive side of the UK economy is so dismally, pathetically inadequate, it will simply be impossible to achieve index linked payouts in future. The real wealth creation required to fund such extravagence no longer exists. Can a UK government tax the UK population 100% of their income to guarantee public sector pensions?

Errrrrr..........NO!

They can't just print trhe money either, because an index linked fund would dicatate a theoretically infinite growth of money supply relative to a ruined economy.

Caught between a rock and a hard place?............A phrase that will see very common usage in the years to come

This is the bit I don't get. I work in the public sector, and having worked in both private and public sectors I don't understand the 'seat warming' viewpoint of the majority of this site, but the pension scheme is outsourced to the PRU. The pensions of the current retirees are paid out of this pot not funded by the private sector. Where is your info coming from??

From common sense mate!

The money required to fund your 20-30 tears has got to come from somewhere?

If it is index linked and inflation proof, where will that money come from? It simply doesn't exist!

PRU yes it stands for Public Resource Unlimited

Terrible reply, sorry! Too much red wine

20-30 years (tears?) of retirement

I would also like to know some more info or opinions on this very subject.
Mrs GOM will get a public pension & so will I in years to come, BUT has this money been invested in private SIV's etc, therefore it could be pot luck as to whether your pension fund has been invested in toxic sh1te ???

anyone care to comment on this ?

Hi GOM

The question everyone's lips I reckon!

What are all there public sector pensions invested in?

I can't answer that question though I suspect it ain't good news

You asked whether I had sold up on another thread by the way. I'm keeping it. I've paid off a big chunk of the principal and hoping for the best. It's goona get ugly, of that i have no doubt but I reckon I can ride out the storm unless we get a Cgnao armageddon style crash where everyone will be screwed.. I've got a big cushion in overpayments and I've put aside enough dosh to pay the mortgate for 2 years. I'm on a fixed rate of 4.79% till feb 2011. Even so, I'm braced for tough times ahead. Next step is renting the spare room.

I just like my home and I'm determined to keep it. Compared with a lot of people I'm in clover but not underestimating what might happen

Basically it appears it is unfunded. So future taxpayers are going to have to find the money. God alone knows from where. I suspect the solution will be to tax pensions at very, very high rates indeed.

http://www.watsonwyatt.com/news/press.asp?ID=14248

Discussed here:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/retirement/ar...mp;in_page_id=6

DOOM DOOM DOOM!

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE

IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD

You belong on Hyde Park Corner

Not on this forum

He's not allowed out of the hospital. Even his PC has padding on the sharp edges ;-)

Pour yourself a stiff drink and listen to this interview. Once you have listened to this you need to play it again so you fully understand what Mahamid is saying:

http://iamthewitness.com/audio/TFC.2007.11...Rafeeq.1of2.mp3

http://iamthewitness.com/audio/TFC.2007.11...Rafeeq.2of2.mp3

A depression wouldn't be the end of the world, everyone will just be much, much poorer (except the very rich). It seems because you have a vested interest in your own property it's clouding your judgement. I think perhaps the reason you so vehemently oppose cgnao's view is that you're scared he could be right so always feel the need to take pot shots at him.

When everyone in the house is crazy, only the sane seem like fools.

Hi mattsta1964,

I am surprised you have taken it off the market tbh, I thought you might have reduced it for a quick sale in the current climate. I know you didn't believe what some of us were saying about hpi earlier in the year & I personally advised you to sell about 6 months ago iirc, you chose not to & that's your decision. When you put it on the market a couple of months ago I would imagine it was dead quiet ?

anyway, you have made your choice now.

I think it's hard not to see a cgnao type scenario now, after everything I have read both on here & on the web. It's a done deal.

far to many unprecidented things for my liking & this all points to this huge financial catastrophe.

fwiw, I have been preparing for this in my own way for about 1 year now. I haven't done everything I would like to as I don't have the funds, but I am happy with my situation for me & my immediate family.

LOL worried about what public sector pensions are invested in???? Hahahaha they are paid out of everyday tax recepits.
No investment what so ever!

Most existing final salary pensions have closed to new members/employees and many will have thier "Surplus" erroded when they get marked to market!

Money Purchase (AKA defined contribution) pensions will take a real kicking!

It bodes bad for everyone that attempts to pay thier way in life, can you really expect the avg pensioner to keep paying the equivalent of a 20K IO mortgage in council tax.

The money will have to come from somewhere
a) Defence cuts (Ref house of lords)
Benefits getting cut (ref, Incap Benefit already being looked at about sodding time!)
c) More stealth taxation (Coucil tax increases on carbon footprint...you bad people, you're frying the earth)
d) More inventive stealth taxation (Yeah GB is good at this one, £1 per fart)
e) More stealth taxation through examining off-shore accounts (Ref BBC)
f) More stealth taxation through IR35 (Ref Artic Systems etc)! BACKDATED!
g) More stealth taxation, parking you car at work is a perk (despite the fact a bus goes nowhere near it, ref Nottigham)
h) More taxtion, via increase to minimum wage (with no increase in lower limit threshold)
i) More Income tax


My bet is everything up until i) as that grabs to many headlines, although GB might leave it to Alister and Merv to break the bad news, right before he gives them the boot over NR.....Thus shooting the messenger!

That Daryl is so obviuosly anti jewish. Not sure how much credence you can pay to someone wthich such extremist views

Quite a shocker though to discover that Barclays Bank is insolvent. Is this true. Only last week Their CEO was reassuring markets telling them they were having a very successful last quarter. What is the truth and why don't we all Know it

have you not noticed their barclays commercial adverts on sky news lately, never seen those on before.....telling everyone they are ok & have plenty of capital.

Too late to sell now!

The bastards who run the world will have to keep the wheels on the trolley thats barrelling downhill out of control. Their own survival now depends on managing the monster they've created. They will have to cede some of their power and control. The alternative is absolute anarchy and I don't believe that is going to happen.

These people are greedy fekkn bastards who have gamed the system to their advantage at the expense of millions of people. But they are clever and pragmatic too.

America and Britain survived the great depression and 2 world wars. We'll come through this mess too. Since WW2, most of the really big crises have been resolved because the consequences of no compromise are not an option. the Cuban missile crisis being the best postwar example.

Fact is, emigrating will take 2 years of bureaucracy and angst, and meanwhile, I gotta live somewhere.....just like everyone else.

A lot of landlords are gonna go bust too. Where are their lodgers going to live once their landlorde have their properties repossessed?

The Cgnao's of this world who think they will be safe living in their caves with their pockets full of gold are delusional I'm afraid. His opinion is just one at the extreme end of a spectrum of possibilities. I would urge people to calm down and look more objectively at what might happen. Calm minds stopped armageddon in 1962. I would urge people to prepare themselves for harder times but not to panic, plunge their life savings into gold, buy a shotgun, etc etc!

to be fair to cg, I think this scenario is like nothing that has been seen before or certainly since the 1930's.

Surely you must concede that what is going on around us is unprecidented ?

I've listened & learnt & now I am only slightly worried (I would be lying if I said I wasn't worried at all), I have protected myself & family to the best of my abilities.