Anders, I have found your posts to be generally nasty and out of keeping with the majority of posters on this site.

You have called me a troll and idiot and now a pig and yet are request the mods to remove people who disagree with you.

I shall leave this site - It would appear that it is increasingly a place of abuse and nastiness and becoming infested with VI goldbugs, which is beyond my interest as an open-minded and good humoured bear.

I think the site will ultimately be worse off for supporting posts like yours but that is their business.

Good luck with your hyperinflationary global collapse of the financial system.

Here you assume a collusion between net lenders and net borrowers on the inter-bank markets. The simple fact that the markets have stopped lending, and we have a credit crunch, suggests strongly to me that these banks are operating independently. If LIBOR is so high it forced the central bank to intervene, this diminishes profits for the lending banks... and, hopefully, this merely saves the borrowing bank from collapse (without inflating their profits) ... but, here, we have to trust central banks not to make a mistake.

This is the mark of the derivative beast.

This situation is by no means unique to CIBC and many large and small banks worldwide are in even worse condition.

Failure to understand this, acknowledge how serious the situation is and take drastic defensive action will devastate your financial future for decades to come.

This is 100% correct, guaranteed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=at9H1JerrE7c
Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has a big skeleton in its vault. And the bank's executives are doing a ham-handed job of trying to keep it there.

CIBC's lightly guarded secret is the name of a ``U.S. financial guarantor'' that faces a possible downgrade on its A credit rating and is ``not necessarily rated by both Moody's & S&P.'' That's how CIBC last week described the company that is insuring $3.47 billion, or about a third, of the collateralized- debt obligations it holds that are tied to U.S. subprime mortgages.

The company's identity matters because the bank said these hedged CDOs were worth just $1.76 billion at Oct. 31, down almost half from their face amount. If the guarantor goes poof, CIBC loses its hedge on these derivative contracts. And the Toronto-based bank would have to recognize the loss, which is growing.

Nah, I'm just ******ing with his ego, like he likes to ****** with this thread.

I can please only one person per day. Today is not his day. Tomorrow's not looking good either.

I'm not entirely convinced about gold either - but in other ways I think CGNAO is spot on - and by the way just because I am not convinced about gold - this doens't mean that I think CGNAO is wrong on this either........ I just have difficulty in seeing any asset class right now that is solid...........

In any case there are things more important than assets - I would rather lose my money than my country for example.

So you have to get things into perspective - and the UK faces two major threats - those of treasonable politicians and those of greedy globalist businesses and bankers (I am no communist or socialist - if I were I would be cheering the Globalist companies and the big brother approach).

But I am a Brit and I love my country.

A truly wise man never plays leapfrog with a Unicorn.

Buh-bye!

[Moderator: Enough is enough!]

Please don't spoil this great thread with your bickering. Keep it civil.

Lets get back to business....following the mess that the money lenders of the world have gotten themselves into.

We have this thread because of the mess they made of the UK housing market with the cockeyed lending practices.

Peace brothers!

Ahhh, good riddance. For once thanks, moderators.

Don't do it, it is what they want you to do. I am here to learn and debate I have nothing to sell all I seek is an insight in to the future.

I don't believe hyperinflation will happen (as it already has IMO) but am willing to listen to reasoned arguments to the contrary as are you).

Deflationists seem to ask sensible questions and never get a decent answer. Hyperinflationists tend to pontificate rather than debate and seem to pull out the same old arguments (reminds me a bit of the property VI's we have been forced to listen to for years).

Open minded and good humoured bears should be made welcome and not insulted.

We need to change from Bulls and Bears as that deal is done.

Can we have a Hyperinflationist and a deflationist thingy instead?

To quote Red Kharma:
>> Why will stocks be toast in a hyperinflationary scenario? They will rocket. Same as houses.


Hmm. The effects of hyperinflation on businesses can surely be massively destructive;
Think for example about businesses buying goods from elsewhere, doing something to them and selling them on. They pay the costs of the component widgets, then all the time they are using to build the final product they are losing against inflation..
maybe I am wrong.

OK, let's break it down for everyone to understand.

BEFORE hyperinflation:

Roll of toilet paper: £ 0.50
House £ 200,000
1oz Gold £ 500

At HEIGHT of the hyperinflation:

Roll of toilet paper: £ 50,000
House £ 2,000,000,000
1oz Gold £ 500,000,000

Conclusion: EVERYTHING rocketed. BUT:
- BEFORE, 400,000 rolls of toilet paper would buy you one house, or 800oz of gold would buy one.
- At the PEAK, 40,000 rolls of toilet paper would buy you one house, or 4oz of gold would buy one. I.e. your house has slumped as it only would in your worst nightmare.

REASON: A house is an illiquid, intransportable and indivisible asset, i.e. it is not very marketable in a hyperinflation where basically everything needs to be liquefied to be able to trade.

EDIT: So, yes, houses would rocket, but compared to everything else they might get as toasty as it gets.

Agreed, but a slanging match is also bad for the site. Reported to the mods. See what they do...

[Moderator: Already dealt with.]

At least you seem to follow it closely.


And of course we had no inflation whatsoever during the last 28 years.

People must be getting nervous for such tetchyness (sp?) to break out

Anyway with people taking their eye off the ball over the festivities I am expecting a lot more bad news to slip out.

I was just think that myself - the markets look real tetchy right now...

agreed!

I posted this on another thread, but I think it is relevant here:

taken from this thread

"We all have learnt so much from posts that stem from GOLD related posts imo...
you could read the main GOLD post from start to finish & that would probably be better than reading 10 books on economics imho.

please all remember, just because high inflation will hurt your business & erode your savings doesn't mean it will change if you ban all talk of it.

Who knows which way it will ultimately go:

Deflation or Hyper-inflation

but lets not stop talking about it or we become as bad as the people that prop up the housing market, you know the ones that can't ever see prices going down.

Please think carefully before commenting with regards to this obviously very touchy subject.

I am keeping an open mind, but personally with what I am witnessing I see a very high inflationary period coming. If something changes then I will alter my point of view.

I agree - the Gold Bugs make this site interesting - I have no exposure to Gold though I am not against it. However some of the most detailed and accurate reports and posts come from the maligned Gold Bug threads. So I would find it a most dull site if they were to go elsewhere.

That makes no sense. A house is a house is a house. If the money pumps really got going, I'd be straight out and buying, and buying the biggest I could get funding for. I doubt anyone with any sense would sell though.

As for toilet paper, it will never be more expensive than money. You can wipe your **** on money

Regarding the inflationary/deflationary debate.

Money is debt. Banks creates money through loans, which when paid back cancels out. Only the interest on the loan is inflationary to the money supply.

In our current environment, the global population is increasingly defaulting on debts secured on assets that are quick being priced downwards. Everything has been purchased on margin, trillions have been lent, but much will not be now repaid. So banks don't get loans back so withtrillions now added to the money sdoesn't this have to be at the very least very-inflationary? It would be logical to me, but is it correct?

However, the Great Depression, caused by a similar mass speculative punt on margin enabled by cheap borrowing is widely reported as having deflationary price action? Deflationary prices with inflationary money supply seem counter-intuitive...help!

dazed

If you're barely able to survive, your last problem will be your house. Your main problem will be to trade things you HAVE for things that you NEED. Fact is, if you have no money (all is worthless), how do you buy bread? This is why finally, in desperation, anything not needed for immediate survival and everything being not very tradable/marketable would become worthless. It's a different matter if your very wealthy anyway, and have a lot of real things to trade. You would be able to pick up things like houses, companies at rock bottom prices because you can pay their owner in things they need to survive (potatoes, bread, water, sheep, whatever). After the crisis, your purchased assets would explode back to normality and you would make insane profits.

I think you must be wrong.

The longer the time spent building the final product the higher the profit margin, because the more the achievable retail price will have increased.

In a deflationary environment the business would be losing to deflation during the time used to build the final product, as the achievable retail price would be falling during that time.

Inflation V Deflation

Serious question: How do the inflationists believe that the money created by inflating the money supply will find its way into circulation?

To date the mechanism has been that loans against fractional reserves have been used to buy dodgy asset backed securities which have been financially engineered to look as if they are low risk.

The funds came from Tier-1 bank risk profiles to Mortgage originators to house buyers to house builders/sellers/land-speculators.

This is a clear path showing who already holds substantial funds today as a result of monetary expansion.

From this point onwards... assuming mortgage lending doesn't pick up dramatically (and I don't see how it could) - then how does this inflation of the money supply find its way into people's pockets so that it can be spent and drive up the cost of retail goods?

Taxes, licences, fines, registrations.....

Why do you think people are still using Bob Mugabe's funny money?

You find it somehow and give it to Mugabe's taxman or you get shot. This creates demand for Zim monopoly money.

Why do you think it will be any different over here?

Wage / Price inflation could work, I suppose.. I'm not entirely sure on this myself. Does anyone know how it happened in (just for instance) the 1970s?

The predictions of the well paid to predict: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...=44&sp=true




Lehman, Merrill Lynch, UBS, Citi and BNP Paribas also give their thoughts.

It will be different here precisely because Mugabe is NOT running this country.

You hyper inflationists keep digging up the most ridiculous examples in your defense the other day it was Argentina, Serbia and a couple of other crackpot economies.

I thought we were talking about hyperinflation here? Do you think it's inevitable that hyperinflation (or deflation) turn into survivalist scenarios?

Far more likely it's just a transfer of assets from the unprepared to prepared. That's why I'm looking for hyperinflation, but all I'm seeing is deflationary forces. I'm still happy to hold cash at the moment, though am concerned with it's safety. And still happy to hold GBP, because we have such high debt levels therfore higher deflationary potential than many other currencies. "Neither a borrower nor lender be" could well be a mantra again for a generation or two if this gets painful enough.

Article about the price of toilet paper in Zim... currently $417 per two ply sheet. The smallest note is $500

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/02/world/af...nyt&emc=rss

You are missing perhaps the most salient point for holding gold. It is currently the only recognised asset class that isn't represented by some one else's liability, and in turbulent times like these...precious

Deflation?!?!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7142801.stm
US factory prices have risen at their highest rate in 34 years, raising inflation fears at a time of interest rate cuts to help the wider economy.

Prices paid to US producers rose 3.2% in November, the highest monthly gain since 1973, said the Labor Department.

Most of the rise was caused by food and energy price increases, which would normally lead to higher interest rates.

Exactly the same type of person IS running the country.

Repeat after me - "ALL FIAT CURRENCIES ARE BACKED BY THE ABILITY OF THE GOVERNMENT TO STEAL FROM IT'S POPULATION"

It works like this - Mugabe/Brown/Chavez/Bush sits there and on his left is a banker, on his right is the taxman.

The taxman demands you give him paper tokens or you go to jail. he is armed, he is deadly serious.

The banker offers you paper tokens as long as you sign up to a loan from him with something you own as collateral. In a panic, you agree. You need the tokens to avoid jail.

The system, while large, is no more or less complicated than this.

Well if you were going to attempt to hyperinflate all these debts then you would simply manipulate these figures to suit your purpose or are Government calculated infaltion stats now reliable all of a sudden?

Inflation has been masked by China for a decade it is on its last legs.

Bless you for falling for any old desperate VI stats they throw at you

They are manipulated. Real inflation is now much higher than that and us so high that it has become very difficult to hide it.

But then, your choice. Stick with your paper if it makes you feel better.

I have friends here who have escaped from persecution in Zimbabwe you are talking utter rubbish.

Trust me whilst Brown is an a**ehole he is no Mugabe.

Your clumping of Chavez and Bush together highlights your ignorance further.

People who think they can sum up global economics and geoploitics in one easy sentence are simply deluded.

Nothing is that simple (well maybe a couple of people on here )

The process and principles are exactly the same. Exactly the same.

Buish and Brown are held back by ever weakening social forces, they are greedy, cowardly thieving scum exactly the same in character as any timpot despot who ever walked the earth. The tend to be smarter about their use of the slaves they own, that's about the only difference.

If you can tell me any factual differences between the relative action of bank, taxman and poltician between them all I will happily retract my statement.

Off you go then. Best of luck.

I never said I was just in paper by the way.

Real inflation has been high for some time it had its bull run.

It is a race to the bottom - time to pay off the debts

Everytime banks get liquidity (temporary loans by the way) they stash it.

You can't keep paying off your debts with more debt.

A question for CGNAO:

Given that you see hyperinflation coming our way, where do you see house prices going in nominal terms? Specifically, will they fall in nominal terms before hyperinflation really takes off?

I think I answered your points in my previous post to you.

The above quote from you is just a rant IMO

Oh and by the way in your previous post you clumped Chavez and Bush together. But now that it is Bush and Brown I don't disagree.

No factual differences then?

I made a statement of fact. Here it is again -

You pay Gordon and co the paper tokens they also print or you go to jail.

Is this a fact? Yes, yes it is. It's how all fiat currency gains value - through threats to people and desperation.

Then I asked for factual differences between this process and what Mugabe does. You can't provide them, because you already know there aren't any and chose to duck the question like a coward. Work in the public sector maybe and not to keen on looking in the mirror?

You know why we don't like you posting in the NI thread. BECAUSE YOU CAN'T KEEP ON TOPIC

I'm as worried about the Bigger Picture as anyone. I have a very large deposit which I want to protect. I read this thread every day and, trust me, I am worried. However, the HOUSE PRICES IN YOUR AREA > NORTHERN IRELAND thread is for discussing HOUSE PRICES IN NORTHERN IRELAND! It is not for discussing CDOs, SIVs, MBS, inflation, deflation, stagflation, dollar collapse, sterling collapse, guns, gold, beans or your new world order. When will you get that into your thick head

Live long and prosper

Mugabe tortures his citizens, uses mob rule oh what is the point (I can't believe I am still engaged in this mindless argument)

Mother Thersa and Stalin both ate food drunk water and went to the crapper some time later so that makes them basically the same then.

It's not the system it is how they use it let us call it MOTIVE

Right, so there is no difference in how they operate, except for the degree to which they are violent.

I can agree to that. Actually that makes only Brown the odd man out, the rest of them DO use torture. It also doesn't change the basic nature of the system they each employ or the reason (which is where we came in) you can have deflation AND hyperinflation at the same time.

Zimbabwe is making jack pack compared to previously, AND it has hyperinflation because people can't exit the financial system, men with weapons force them to take part.

Do you really think it's going to be different over here when push comes to shove?

Our wonderful state will back off and say "oh fair cop guv, let's not have that tax/licence/fine/registration money if it's an inconvenience to you", or will they create demand for their worthless paper the only way they know how?

Yes, I do don't recall Zimbabweans having a subprime MEWing economy piled up with debt nor does their economy rely on moving funny money around for commisiion and retail therapy which ours does sorry did coz both engines of our miracle economy our falling off a cliff face.

This is the end of a global credit boom (not the same as one of these tinpot ecomomies blowing in the wind of the global economy) we are a serious part of the global economy.

It is all about the dissaperance of consumption and easy credit

What's wrong with all of you?

The international monetary system is collapsing and instead of paying attention you keep keep regurgitating spectacularly pointless arguments.

We were waiting for your take on why the inflationary move by central banks has resulted in a fall in asset prices (specifically FTSE100 shares today as well as the Dow, Nikkei and H Seng.)

Surely that is consistent. An inflationary move by the central banks will depress financial assets.

Err well I know why this has happened, I know what's going to happen and I want to prevent it occuring in future.

You won't get that with a gold standard, that's for damn sure. The gold standard fails, has always failed, always will fail and will see my grandkids under the same shitty situation as we have now.

So, as today is toast, what are we doing tomorrow?

Well, unless people get the message that we are only prosperous under a free market with minimal or no government supervision then we are off to fascism/communism for 50-60 years. I'll try, I'll fail but it's not a waste of my time.

What are you doing with your one and only life Cgnao?

ALERT ALERT

The above statement is no longer 100% guaranteed

HA HA HA

If that makes you feel better, it is 100% correct, guaranteed.

Reckon we'll see emergency rate cuts before Christmas ?

Ah thats better, did see it afterwards in your small print but never trusted things written in small letters you know how it is!!