I think its time to hear a counter argument to all of this HPC talk. This web site has been established for years now and still you are no closer to realising your goal - a HPC. Just perhaps, this housing market may be a little more complex than you all think and maybe, just maybe, your assumptions about a crash are miss-guided.

So why won't the housing market crash?

In simple terms, the market will not crash because there is an insufficient supply of housing to meet housing need. The demand for housing will fluctuate up and down and will impact on price. If the demand for housing is reduced, by say interest rate rises, then house prices may fall (as i'm sure they do in the future). Housing supply and housing need are very very complex areas which use computer modeling to try to estimate.

If anyone tells you their is no housing supply problem because 1) they looked on Rightmove and theres load of houses 2) there are loads of flats which are vacant in my area - therefore loads of housing 3) looked outside a saw loads of housing; then frankly they know nothing. If on the other hand some tells you they are a professor of demographic studies with the backing of a University behind them and undertake modeling work on a regular basis to inform housing supply debates at Examinations in Public, then they will know plenty about the complexity of housing need and supply. I am not one of these people, but i do employ them to try a convince the Government to increase the supply of housing.

The failure of the planning system - for the last 30 years

The amount of housing which is built is determined by the planning system, which is Plan led. Although a complex process in itself i can simplify it by saying that the level of housing need is debated and the Panel of inspectors will give their final report which is then adopted. The key points you need to know are:

a) determining housing need is a complex area with a number of factors from immigration, birth rates, average household size etc etc

Local authorities are against providing housing because it is not popular with local voters - who can keep them in power

c) the models used have always tended to under-estimated demand

d) the projections are made over 15 to 20 year timescales which cannot foresee future changes in government policy - eg UK opening up the boarders to other EU states; so no housing is provided for them

e) this failure of the system has been going on for about 30 years

When the government makes statements about an under-supply of housing it is this very complex area they are referring too; NOT the amount of properties for sale on 'rightmove'.

So why won't a House Price Crash happen?

Expecting a 20% fall of prices next year so you can buy a house? Sorry, its unlikely to happen. Because their has been such an under supply of housing their are countless people wanting to do the same thing. In fact so many people want a house price crash to happen so they can buy a house that they they go to housepricecrash.co.uk to try a convince themselve that it will. Another example of the under supply are the thousands of families waiting to be housed in Council housing in each local authority area; families in bedsits, the homeless, FTB's in rented accomodation, children still living at home - the list goes on and on and on - and its the reason that there will not be a house price crash. Its simple supply and demand!

What about the evidence for this under supply?

Government policy is changing with Gorden B proposing to develop more housing. This change in policy was in part brought on by a Treasury backed report by Kate Barker which examined the problem. you can find it at

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/consultation...arker_index.cfm

In simple terms it identifies the problem of housing under supply and the only way to resolve it by building more houses

Before this there was a white paper from 1996 called something like "where shall we live - the problem of housing need in 2016. This predicted that we shall need a further 3 millions homes by 2016.

But what about all this extra housing which GB has told you about?

Too little, too late really. The figure which he is providing will are only a fraction what we need to produce as an absolute minium. There are also serious concerns about delivery particully as as a new planning system has been put in place to speed up the entire planning system which happening the opposite effect.

what about the other factors of HPI such as the ease of credit

Yeah, your right, its not only the under supply of housing which has fueled HPI but also other factors such as the ease of credit, low interest rates etc etc. you've all debated them for years and they have all contributed BUT its all been underpinned by the lack of supply.

But prices seem to be easing off, interest rates are going higher the US housing market is in a right state and house price are not affordable

Its likely that these factors may lower house prices but its unlikely it will cause a crash. As soon as prices become affordable all the people who have struggled to get on the market will do so, increasing demand and therefore prices. On this affordabily issue remember their is plenty of money in the economy and securing a mortgage is still easy. I know someone who has brought a £150k house and she's only on £17k. is it affordable for her - yes because she's brought it with someone else. Loads of people are purchasing together and thereby sustaining demand - its happening all over the place.

In a nut shell

1) massive under supply of housing over the last 30 years
2) This has underpinned recent HPI
3) Unable to build the houses needed to balance out the demand for housing
4) a 'crash' is unlikely to occur because any lowering of prices will make house purchasing more affordable which will increase demand and prices.



Just a few notes

A 'crash' in the market is not house prices weakening in a few parts of the country but more about huge loses of say 20 to 30% in a short period of time of say 6 months to a year

You may be impressed by some members and how they partry their argument across but if they've been a member for any amount of time, it means they have also predicting a crash for ages, which hasn't happened.

Im not saying the market won't go down slight - im sure it will. What im saying is that there won't be a crash

Know body can predict the future

dgl1001.......brace yourself.......

There's a lack of supply? Gosh, that argument hasn't ever been discussed on here. Do you think we've missed the boat, or is there still a chance of buying now before we're priced out forever?

demographics and dynamics change - a deep recession will mean people living together (rather than separately). some generations ago there was mum dad kids and granny living in a relatively modest accomodation. newgen imigrants to uk have no qualms about sharing many to a domicile

mathematical models are all very well (I belive the met office has a rather sophisticated one running on one of the finest supercomputers). it still pisses down.

You think? Why on earth would people buy in if prices start to slide and when the interest on the mortgage is more than renting? Don't you think sentiment has anything to do with it?

Where did you cut and paste the main body of your post from?

I don't think it's your own work as, in the main, the spelling and grammar are quite good, whereas the "Just a few notes" part is not.

Its all my own work. Spelling diminished towards the end

[Know body can predict the future
[/quote]
I'm sorry, but you've obviously gone to a lot of effort to write and post your opinions, and then you end with that?

There will be loads of supply and no demand, if nobody can afford to pay the mortgage.

Whether there will be a crash or won't be is besides the point. You clearly don't have a clue what you are talking about...

1977?
1990?

Thats a great poster that you have written to convince yourself but your deluded. Just in case you havent understood let me repeat. You are deluded. I do admit though that you havenot understood me. Do however continually bump your post so that it stays in a prominent position, because your post is every reason why it will crash.

Someone I know was offered an interest only mortgage recentyl from a leading mortgage advisor (referred by Fxtns). It was for 265k. His deposit was 20k. The advisor siad that this was the vbest mortgage for him because it would allow him to stretch his 'affordability'. My friend eans 48k. Because my firnd is thick he thinks ghis monthly payments will pay his mortgage competely (the capital and the interest). As you will know he is wrong. Whats worse your friend the mortgage broker scum then adds salt to the wound by saying he can give a better rate of interest if he adds the 'fees' to the loan, that way my friend will have extra cash to tart up his 2 bed ****** flat in N8. My friend of course is compeletly oblvisous to the fact that he having a hot poker up his arrsrss!" You might think that the broker has advised him to take out a sacvings plan to ensure the capital is paid off. Your deluded. Instead h e said property prices will rise?!?!?!??!?!??

Sheesh, you know - I'm pssed off. So ****** the ****** ofvcffv"!"!







(5 mins later).

Calmer now.


Perhaps you can elucidate how those in the same psoition as my friend (FTBs) will actually benefit from the type of offers made by your friends in the business. Saying that, youre maths are proabbly that good so I won't expect anything from you. Once last try: perhaps I'm mad: prove it to me.

OK, situation now:
average house price (ahp): £ 200,000
average income (ai): £25,000

average house price / average income = ahp/ai = 8

I think there are two options for the future:

(1) ahp/ai = 10, 12, 14, ... -- government supports HPI, they hand out free £1,000,000 lump sums every few months
to everyone who wants to buy a house.

(2) ahp/ai stays at 8 --> government bails out everyone who goes into foreclosure because of higher IRs

(3) ahp/ai falls, since no one can afford it at present levels with IRs climbing.

I somehow can't see (1) and (2) happening. But then, who knows.

Your friend cannot benefit from taking out so much debt - why is he doing it?

Oh yes, all the same arguments which were trotted out before the last crash (which dgl1001 is probably too young to remember).

Just to remind him, nominal prices dropped in my area by 30%, real prices nearer 50% and I remember people being in negative equity for a decade. In my Father's case the house he bought in 1988 took until 2001 before its real value was restored allowing for inflation.

Shortage of property? A complete fiction - our mental house prices are explained by two factors alone, easy credit and the bubble sentiment.

If the wider economy falls from its ten year prosperous perch then this under-supply myth will be exposed.

There is only what you call under-supply because we have got so rich over the past few years and therefore 1. Will not live in the poor quality empty property that already exists and 2. Expect to live with less persons per property.

When the economic boom ends we'll see a return to a more traditional society, blowing your rather simplistic argument out of the water.

dgl1001..... I think that you're very brave to put up that post on a board like this. You must be expecting flak, and lots of it!

I can see your point, but you've missed a very important factor.... affordability.

I'm no economist, nor into demographics or any other discipline which could qualify me as an expert. But I do know that if people can't afford to buy something, then it won't sell. And if somebody wants or needs to sell something, they have to reduce the price to an affordable level.

The reason people can afford these lunatic prices is because they can borrow huge amounts of money at low interest, make their repayments and still have enough to buy food. But if interest rates go up, then something has to give.

Anyway, glad to see there are still people with big enough cajones to post such a counterpoint

i suggest you read the Barker Report on the link provided in my main post

Just out of interest, how long have you been predicting a crash - your membership to this forum has been for quite a long time

An obvious cut and paste job and one with some pretty weak arguments at that.

How can this bozo expect to be taken seriously



Ole!

Money is lent to purchase property based on the amount of collateral, therefore, your dream of forever rising prices and hence perpetual prosperity will one day fail. Nothing can be perpetual, and physics, let alone economics will tell you this. once the money lenders feel there is an insufficient amount of collateral to utilise upon a loan default, then loaning money for this sort of transaction stops, and hence the purchasing (or mass purchasing for investment purposes) then you will have a crash, and it will happen in the blink of an eye. You will be as surprised as if your wife or girlfriend had suddenly decided to leave what you thought was your happy marriage......cry, one day you will; keep the tissues ready...........

I love it!! The irony is quite delightful. Anyone who takes the time to craft an essay like that is clearly DESPERATE to convince everyone that there isn't going to be a crash. I'm afraid that every bull post on here simply adds weight to the bear argument. If the HPC crowd really was a load of deluded idiots, nobody would give them a second thought.

You can smell the stench of fear and political spin a mile away

Well l dont know of anyone who is homeless because there physically isnt anywhere for them to buy or rent. Admittedly there is s shortage of "dream houses" and plenty make do in.."make do" housing. With regard to pricing, l think you will find its entirely due to the availabilty of credit. If you let everyone and their dog have easy borrowing access to a million pounds that they can only spend on a house, then pretty soon the cheapest house will be a million pounds.

Not sure l wish to address the middle part which seems to revolve around "it like really hard innit, computers n' stuff" Ever heard of GIGO? Generally models are simply slick ways of representing underlying assumptions and statistics, which are of course predisposed towards the desired outcome for the funding source.



You wanna read that again?

Knee jerk reactions... why can't you guys get to grips with the fact we have been underbuilding but that won't stop a crash, it will make it worse?! Are you all CPRE members trying to talk down house prices to avoid ruining the character of your villages (i.e. not letting any riff raff who work for a living in)?

Seriously this dogged determination to cling to the "no lack of supply" dogma undermines the valid arguments postulated here. Any numpty can see we've been underbuilding and that too much emphasis has been placed on individual categories of properties (i.e. flats).

dgl1001 - We agree on one thing, there is a shortage of housing (particularly family housing which has been squeezed out by insane brownfield building policies and builders targetting BTL mania).

However did you bother to read further than the executive summary of the Barker Report? If you did but missed it (it's tucked away in there) Barker actually admits that the UK's housing shortage doesn't stop volatility in the UK property cycle but actually increases it.

We've had NIMBY's and planning gridlock for decades, but in the 90's that didn't stop prices plumeting did it.

Neither did it stop the Japanese decade of house price deflation and lack of supply and pressure on land is even higher there than here.

Kinda undermines your argument a bit doesn't it, but well done for at least having a go at a rational bull argument.

I'm just wondering if DG is a moderator posting a spoof to liven up debate

Nah, just some bull who's £500K in debt and possibly getting nervous

First let me apologise for swearing (it was worse, but noticed I was edited/!). Sorry. Got into a rant whcih wasn't really my intention.

You pose a good question. Why is my friend doing it? I think he's fed up with living with me!! Me and a few others. Joking aside, at 31, he's got himself a good paid jovb and he thinks its the right time to buy. Good luck to him I say, as I'm not going to badger him to do otherwise. I'm gently trying to get him to ask more acid questions, but in the end it is his affair and I dont want it getting in the way as firneds.

What perturbs me though is the scale of this thing. Clearly my friend isn't alone in buying on these terms and at these prices. The figures scare the shit out of me. Whats worse is the way that the broker did not stipulate at any point in the discussion that a payment vhecile would be needed. Can you imaguine the point int he future wheny my friend and others like him find out that they were wrong, that they were wroding capital? Even if they switch toa repayment scheme at some near point int he future, they'd have to find a third more to afford a repayment. I think this is a timebomb waiting to go off, but sadly I know the fsa will simply insure themselves out of any future scandal. However my friend I predict is going to feel an awful lot of pain, but hey, perhaps his salary will increase 3 fold and he'll hitch up with a girl doing the same and all will be rosy!

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p?showuser=8338

About supply and demand: yes, possibly there is a housing shortage of some extent in the UK. But then, the quality of living is simply lower than for instance in the US. Crammed flats just fall into this category. So, don't expect standards to improve a lot. They won't. This is an ex-Empire, we should not forget.

I know a body that does computer modeling to estimate.

Phoney

There is of cause one question the "undersupply mob" can't answer and that is: Why are rents not rising?

Yes I know they are rising with inflation, and yes I know they are rising in certain parts of the country like Kensington and Chelsea, but they are not rising in most of the country, and in some places they are falling.

I would agree that we don't have enough decent housing in the UK and this has been the case for 30 odd years. It was the case in 1995 when house prices had been falling for 5 years, it is also the case that the present boom has encouraged the wrong sort of properties to be build. Investment boxes have been built for speculators rather than family homes for families.

But the undersupply / rents thing just doesn't add up. How can it be, if we are so short of housing that ANY investor is taking a negative yield on their investment?

The other thing to mention of cause is the US and Spain. How could they have possibly had such a boom, when you can build so much?

Undersupply is over-simplistic as an argument, I'm afraid.

If the above theory was true property in London and the South-East shouldn't have crashed in the early 90s, looking for a decent place to rent in those times was harder than looking for a job and prices crashed. Its not Supply and Demand of houses its Supply and Demand of Buyers/Sellers. During the late 80s boom there was crazy gazumping as people were fighting over the same property to buy. Then it all stopped and went silent. DEJA VU

[quote name='Dopamine' date='Jul 19 2007, 09:09 PM' post='703572']
[Know body can predict the future

I'm afraid that's not strictly true.Those educated in "the craft" can and do manipulate circumstances to give a desired outcome over a period of time.

Or 4 x salary for an average couple. Less if they are anything like the average HPC bear and saved a deposit by renting cheap

Makes us sound like Bond villains!



http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...amp;hl=papillon

I think you've got off lightly compared to the last poor fella who stuck his head above the parapet.



Nothing can continue to fly in the face of the basic laws of supply and demand for ever (just ask Alfred Marshall - oh, you can't, he's spinning too quickly in his grave). The higher it gets, the harder it will fall. Booms always end in bust.

Prices have reached these silly heights because there is a shortage, my freinds are collecting houses like matchbox models. Three freinds have seven houses between them, empty most of he time. I have free holidays in the country ones. They have them for their pensions - see, you can't beat bricks and mortar. I have only the one, I'm the poor sister of the brigade. Yes I have mentioned that I think they're potty, but then they point to how much prices have gone up and what they're 'worth now', makes me look a right nana so I just keep it shut and stand by with the tea and sympathy.

Your basic argument revolves around there being an absolute housing shortage. There is not. A study of the rental market shows the actual cost of accommodation rather than of an inflated asset. In London over the past 10 years, it has been 30-50%, unlike the property asset, which has nearly tripled.

There is a shortage of property to buy but this is a very different thing. The actual supply of property remains sufficient, which is why it is so much cheaper to rent than buy.

As this was your main point, I will not bother with the rest of your post. But if I wanted a greater challenge, I would take on Joey Deacon at beach volleyball.

I think there is genuinely a trend of kids staying with parents longer (don't want to rent as it's 'dead money'), but you're quite right, rents are pretty static. I'm also failing to see the vast numbers of homeless people we surely must have if we're that short of accomodation

We have a shortage of houses for FTBs because new builds are being snapped up by BTLers. I heard a news item only a few weeks ago about a seaside town that had built a housing estate to solve the housing supply problem. Virtually all of them were bought up by property speculators and out-of-towners. The spokeswoman for the local council was despairing - if my memory is correct, a while after construction this entire estate had increased the population of the local school by ONE CHILD!!!!!

Well said. And both those factors are changing very fast indeed now, i.e. interest rates and change in sentiment. The first is a matter of record - BOE and money market decisions. Working out how fast the second is changing depends on who you talk to, but it is changing.

Good question is to ask ourselves is the real Estate market is a Ponzi game based on unrealistic expectations “Irrational exuberance”. Well looking as a whole into the market from any perspective even me as a newbie can see that market I extremely overvalued – simply FTB cannot buy a house, there is no affordable Housing.
Immigration, look at the statistics and how fast immigrants can became participants in the Housing Market there they need time before changing the status from tenants to FTB.
That is why many have seen an opportunity in BTL business, but everything is again an Investment and an investment need a profitable return to be sustainable. So it is a Ponzi game because the whole scheme is based on expectations and not real demands, so to stay in the game we need constant steadiness in demand, as far as the systems stays without major disturbances It will be self sustainable, the only problem is that we need constant profit to keep it alive, and as we also know we measure profit not only in numbers but in terms of time and effort you invest in something to gain or increase our profit. That simply means that we have pure individually orientated factor of how worthy is something, increase in demand is caused by the idea of making a profit and securing a future or house as a pension fund as a BTL business.
So another good question is how profitable all these new BTL are and in long term how self sustainable, if the profit fade the worthiness of the BTL schemes turn out to be a pain in the butt, so either you stay in or cash out and find more profitable business.
The real danger in the whole Housing Industry is the BTL business and how expansive the investors are. So we need constant immigration for the process to feed itself, that mean we need constant grow in Employment and good performing economy. We have to test the whole system if still going to work in bad performing economy, what if we have a slowdown in immigration or we overestimated the demand for Rented property from immigrants, what if we have a bad year and don’t forget that all these people will “compare the income benefits from migration with the economic and social costs of moving. If the benefits outweigh the costs, they may choose to migrate.” what if there is no demand for rented property, here is another question is how long the BTL businesses can stay afloat without generating profit or income. We know that the big player will have no problem but the small ones will have to take a big hit and consider is it worthy to be an investor in such a risky game. So if the business is not self sustainable will have to cease to operate and liquidate. By releasing large number of properties on the market simultaneously you give a big signal to the others that the business is not profitable and they have to reconsider or recalculate again, in the same way rating agencies downgrading generates a signal, the problem again is with the human psyche if this trend persists other players will form their actions on the base of other peoples actions which create a herding action surely there must be reasons for this happening.
The irrationality is in the human psyche, everybody wants profits, nobody likes loses. If few people are profiting form a trade or business other people trend to copy them and to follow their actions, the market can absorb newcomers until the point of saturations or too many players on the table in the same time consequently this means squeezing profits and strong competition pushing down profits and margins. Market based on expectations is not rational; it follows speculative trends.
Looking at the literature on herding available we can see how quickly the mood can shift from positive to negative, from buy to sell, nothing to do with demand and supply or planning regulations, if the expectations lower there is a strong tendency in releasing assets. I am absolutely new to this business, but one thing I know is to ask myself why I am doing this, why I am buying this property, because I need it to live in it or to invest and earn. If it is not affordable why I should buy it at all, surely nobody wants a thing that will make them anxious and worried every time there is a jump in the IR.FTB already have retreated from the market, there is a shift form Buying to live in to Buy to let. The whole madness is that the foundation that formed the market has simply crumbled , it’s no longer existent, the FTB no longer want to pay the price now matter that the supply and demand is strongly opposing their actions.
So what we have here is a Ponzy game without players, bad thing is that these already in will take a big hit. I have no experience, or confidence to predict when this is going to happen, and what exactly will trigger the shift in the market, that is why I am basically here to look for signs that other may have seen already, is neither bearish nor bullish behaviour if one want to avoid financial troubles or hardship, Despite my inexperience I am not sheepish, I may be wrong in seeing the signs but at least I am trying to see a reasonable explanation behind my actions, and on this basis I can either stay and wait or join the game, the choice is mine and even if the outcome is painful I can bear the consequences of my actions, thank God for this website.


http://213.86.34.248/NR/rdonlyres/805656A4...igration_FR.pdf





http://business.fullerton.edu/finance/jour...n01/v15p041.pdf

A process that is gaining remarkable momentum amongst the student population, the pressure will be even greater when the tuition fees are raised and inflation carries on ripping through the cost of basic costs.

http://www.inthenews.co.uk/money/finance/n...036;1110747.htm

Students 'living at home to avoid debt'
Thursday, 19 Jul 2007 14:01

Almost a third (31 per cent) of students planning to start university this year intend to live with their parents due to financial worries, new research has found.

The respondents to a survey by Lloyd TSB's student banking division said that unless they remained within the family home they would not be able to afford to enter higher education.

It appears that the problem of debt is increasing for those wishing to go to university, with the number of students intending to continue living with their parents up from the 22 per cent recorded last year.

Interesting post. But you fail to mention the one factor that could delay any 'crash', if not prevent it entirely.

A new paradigm cannot be ruled out. China has a $2 trillion fund and India has similar amounts to invest. It's coming our way and its impact is uncertain. I believe any appreciable correction could be delayed for several years in the UK because of it.

We have the most liberal financial laws in the world. Barely regulated . Hence the billions flooding in.

Now we have to contend with legal stuff.

Never a HPC? It will happen for definite.

But in sufficient time to benefit us? I doubt it. Not in this generation.

This so called bozo is encouraging debate.

He's not quite as discredited as the Bear Bozos who sold up in 2001 or the other type of Bear Bozos who persistently claim house prices are crashing in their area when the Land registry figures persistently say otherwise.

Warwickshire is up 8.2% yoy and the West Mids 5.4%.

We've been told both areas have been 'crashing' since 2004.

Alabala,

I'm sure you had lots of interesting things to say but please do paragraphs.

I couldn't read your post. Too dense. Quite daunting. Had to skip it.

"easy credit and the bubble sentiment.." i.e. MORTGAGE FRAUD - the single biggest driver of HPI -

READ THIS - - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry702671

Er... you mean they can walk into practically any EA office/Moneylenders [there's no difference - they share the same offices locally and centrally!] - and just LIE-to-BUY - i.e. Committ MORTGAGE FRAUD - which they are actively ENCOURAGED to do by the MONEYLENDERS!!!!! - - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3222053.stm

[and also see - http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressrele..._mortgage.shtml[

+ post on this - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=51575

Er... you mean they can walk into practically any EA office/Moneylenders [there's no difference - they share the same offices locally and centrally!] - and just LIE-to-BUY - i.e. Committ MORTGAGE FRAUD - which they are actively ENCOURAGED to do by the MONEYLENDERS!!!!! - - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3222053.stm

[and also see - http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressrele..._mortgage.shtml

+ post on this - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=51575]

And in very simple terms ...

You state that...

'What im saying is that there won't be a crash'

and then say that
Know (sic) body can predict the future.

So nobody can predict the future, yet your prediction is there isn't going to be HPC.

Stuuuuupid.

Baz Consider it Blow in the air, nothing serious it's just my newbie humble opinion, I am sorry and I would be more careful in the future.
Now in view of my post and the post that started this topic, this may be more appropriate, everyone has its own views and shall stick to them.

WHATEVER HAPPENS, HAPPENS FOR A REASON
"Speech is not merely the blowing of air. Speech is intended to say
something, but what is spoken may not necessarily be valid.
If it is not valid, has anything actually been spoken?
Or has speech never actually occurred?
We may consider speech to be distinct from the chirps of hatchlings,
but is there really any difference between them?
Suppose that you and I have a dispute. If you beat me and I
lose to you, does that mean you're really right and I'm really
wrong?
If I beat you and you lose to me, does that mean I'm really
right and you 're really wrong?
Is one of us right and the other wrong?
Or are both of us right and both of us wrong?
Neither you nor I can know, and others are even more in the dark.
Whom shall we have decide the matter?
Shall we have someone who agrees with you decide it?
Since he agrees with you, how can he decide fairly?
Shall we have someone who agrees with me decide it?
Since he agrees with me, how can he decide fairly?
Shall we have someone who differs with both of us decide it?
Since he differs with both of us, how can he make a decision?
Shall we have someone who agrees with both of us decide it?
Since he agrees with both of us, how can he make a decision?
Given that neither you nor I, nor another person, can know how to decide,
shall we wait for still another?"

Don't forget that if prices drop by 5% over 3 years they will call that a crash here because they will take off another 6% pa to allow for inflation.

5% over 3 years?

More like 40% over four years.